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ATMOS 397GATMOS 397GBiogeochemical Cycles and Global ChangeBiogeochemical Cycles and Global Change

Lecture 12: Carbon and ClimateLecture 12: Carbon and Climate

Don WuebblesDon Wuebbles

Department of Atmospheric SciencesDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences

University of Illinois, Urbana, ILUniversity of Illinois, Urbana, IL

February 27, 2003February 27, 2003

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Climate change is one of the biggest issues confronting humanity in the 21st century

However,Global climate change much better understood than regional changes Large uncertainties remain in interpreting climate change to the local and regional scale

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Mann et al. (1999)

1000 year reconstruction

~ 0.7 oC (~ 1.3 oF) increase in global surface temperature during last 140 years

(IPCC, 2001)

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The Evidence for Global WarmingThe Evidence for Global Warming

Warmest temperatures in 1000 years 13 of last 15 years highest in 150+ years of global surface data 1998 warmest, then 2001

Major decline in glacier extent Increase in water vapor Increase in cloud cover (than 1950s) Increase in precipitation at higher latitudes and decrease in

tropics Shortened seasons of lake ice Decrease in extent of snow cover Large decrease in Arctic sea ice extent Increase in sea level

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1000 Year Temperature Records1000 Year Temperature Records

Annual Temperatures Mann et al., GRL, 1999

Global; Proxies (tree rings, ice cores, and other data)

Crowley and Lowery, AMBIO, 2000 N.H.; Proxies (tree rings, corals, ice cores, and

other data) and temperature records Huang et al., Nature, 2000

Global; Boreholes

Warm Season Temperatures Jones et al., Holocene, 1998 Briffa, Quat. Sci. Rev., 2000

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T. Crowley, Science, July 2000T. Crowley, Science, July 2000

“the agreement between modeling results and observations for past 1000 years is sufficiently compelling to allow one to conclude that natural variability plays only a subsidiary role in the 20th century warming and that the most parsimonious explanation is that is due to the anthropogenic increase in GHGs (greenhouse gases).”

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The Evidence for Global WarmingThe Evidence for Global Warming

Major decline in glacier extent

Example: The Rhone glacier in the Bernese Oberland, Switzerland

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IPCC (1996)International assessment: Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change

“Nonetheless, the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”

IPCC (2000)New climate assessment (>500 scientists)

“there has been a discernible human influence on global climate”

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There have been large increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and in aerosols over the last century ---

Human activities predominate as the causes of these increases

The Drivers of Climate Change

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The Effect of a Gas on Climate?The Effect of a Gas on Climate?

Determined by its radiative forcing relative to other forcings on climate

What is radiative forcing? Increase in concentration of a greenhouse gas

allows more of the outgoing infrared radiation of the Earth to be absorbed by the atmosphere

This reduces the efficiency by which the Earth cools to space

Tends to warm the lower atmosphere and surfaceTends to warm the lower atmosphere and surface

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Radiative Forcing on ClimateRadiative Forcing on Climate

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The Evidence for a Human Effect on ClimateThe Evidence for a Human Effect on Climate

Both land and ocean temperatures increasing Largest changes at higher latitudes Patterns of climate change Stratosphere is cooling Diurnal cycle is decreasing Modeling studies can only explain the 20th

century climate trends if include greenhouse gas forcing effects

Cannot explain in terms of natural variability or natural forcing alone

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Constant Emissions of COConstant Emissions of CO22 Does Not Does Not Mean Constant ConcentrationMean Constant Concentration

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IPCC SRES SCENARIOSIPCC SRES SCENARIOS

A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies

A2: A very heterogenous world with an emphasis on familiy values and local traditions.

B1: A world of dematerialization and introduction of clean technologies

B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability

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IPCC (2000) SRES Scenarios ---IPCC (2000) SRES Scenarios ---“Business as Usual”“Business as Usual”

SRES “MARKER” Scenarios A1, A2, B1, and B2 are based on narrative storylines, describe alternative future developments in economics, technical, environmental and social dimensions.

A1 rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.

A2 emphasis on family values and local traditions, high population growth, and less concern for rapid economic development.

B1 rapid change in economic structures, "dematerialization" and introduction of clean technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to environmental and social sustainability.

B2 emphasizes local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with less rapid and more diverse technological change but a strong emphasis on community initiative and social innovation to find local, rather than global solutions.

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EmissionsEmissionsfor the SRESfor the SRES

ScenariosScenarios

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO

2 (G

tC)

B2

B1

A2

A1

25

50

75

100

125

SO

2 (

MtS

O2)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

CH

4 (

MtC

H4)

4

8

12

16

20

N2O

(M

tN)

IPCC SRES EMISSION SCENARIOS

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COCO22 Emissions for the SRES Scenarios Emissions for the SRES Scenarios

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO

2 (G

tC)

B2

B1

A2

A1

25

50

75

100

125

SO

2 (

MtS

O2)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

CH

4 (

MtC

H4)

4

8

12

16

20

N2O

(M

tN)

IPCC SRES EMISSION SCENARIOS

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO

2 (G

tC)

25

50

75

100

125

SO

2 (

MtS

O2)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

CH

4 (

MtC

H4)

4

8

12

16

20

N2O

(M

tN)

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Gas Concentrations Gas Concentrations derived for the SRES derived for the SRES

ScenariosScenarios300

400

500

600

700

800

900C

O2 (

pp

mv)

B2

B1

A2

A1

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

CH

4 (

pp

bv)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

320

340

360

380

400

N2O

(p

pb

v)

IPCC SRES SCENARIOSISAM Estimated Concentrations

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Derived CO2 Concentration – SRES ScenariosDerived CO2 Concentration – SRES Scenarios

All SRES envelop

reference case

A1B Scenario envelop including climate sensitivity uncertainty

All SRES envelop including climate sensitivity uncertainty

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Uncertainty in projecting COUncertainty in projecting CO22

Model studies of uptake of Anthropogenic CO2 show possible “saturation” effects.

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Projected temperature responseProjected temperature response

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Projected sea level responseProjected sea level response

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Sandbags in Alaska

Coastal Florida

Sea Level Rise has Societal and Ecological Implications

Toxic Algae Blooms

Coral Bleeching and Destruction

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Concerns about Impacts of Climate Change are at Concerns about Impacts of Climate Change are at the Local to Regional Levelthe Local to Regional Level

Concerns Temperature, precipitation, winds Changes in sea level Severe weather (heat waves, cold snaps, floods,

droughts) Impacts

Water quality / quantity Air quality Agriculture Forests Ecosystems Communities, cities Human health (disease and health patterns) Infrastructure (transportation, energy systems)

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Achieving a Sustainable Climate (ASC)—Positioning Achieving a Sustainable Climate (ASC)—Positioning National Resources to Resolve Climate ChangeNational Resources to Resolve Climate Change

Improving definition of the problem Diagnosis and understanding (climate, carbon cycle,

etc.) Evaluating the impacts Determine ability to adapt to some climate change

Solving the problem Technology to increase conservation / efficiency Reduced-carbon energy technology development

—Public acceptance of nuclear technology—Fuel cells, etc.

Carbon capture and sequestration

ASC would also help solve other energy issues (e.g., California 2001; Reliance on foreign oil)

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ASC---The Climate Change ChallengeASC---The Climate Change Challenge

The IPCC business-as-usual scenarios

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IS92a

Range of O

ther IS92 Scenarios

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions, Billions of tonnes per year

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ASC---The Climate Change ChallengeASC---The Climate Change Challenge

1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)

GOAL—”…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (Article 2)

Stabilizing Concentrations Is not the Same as Stabilizing Emissions

Stabilizing Concentrations Implies Human-related Emissions Must (approximately) Go to ZERO.

Cumulative EmissionsConcentrations

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ASC---The Climate Change ChallengeASC---The Climate Change Challenge

Changes Required in Human-related CO2

Emissions to Stabilize Atmospheric Concentrations

Requires peak & then decline in emissions

Emissions Trajectories Consistent With Various Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Ceilings

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1990 2090 2190 2290

750 ppmv650 ppmv550 ppmv450 ppmv350 ppmvIS92a

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mill

ion

s of

Ton

nes

of

Car

bon

per

yea

r

Reference Emissions

CO2 Emissions Cap

GAP

The Challenge: The Challenge: Achieving a Sustainable Climate Achieving a Sustainable Climate

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IS92a Business-as-Usual scenario assumes ~11 TW Carbon Free Energy by 2050

Hoffert et al. (Nature, 1998)

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Without New Technology: Without New Technology: Carbon Emissions & Concentrations Will RiseCarbon Emissions & Concentrations Will Rise

Emissions Concentrations

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Pg

C/y

r

IS92a(1990 technology)

IS92a

550 Ceiling

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

ppm

v

IS92a(1990 technology)IS92a550 CeilingPreindustrial

Preindustrial CO2

Current EnergyS&T can reducecarbon emission.

But stabilization

requires additional

Carbon S&

T!

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Resolving scientific uncertainty Emissions mitigation, Technology development, Climate adaptation

Climate policy requires a portfolio of responses, Climate policy requires a portfolio of responses, including …including …

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1990 2005 2020 20352050

20652080

2095

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Mill

ion

s of

Ton

nes

of

Car

bon

per

yea

r

soil carbon sequestrationsequestration from fossil power generationsequestration from synfuels productionsequestration from H2 productionend-use technology improvementsnuclearsolarbiomass550 ppmv emissions

19902005

20202035

2050 2065 2080 2095

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Mill

ion

s of

Ton

nes

of

Car

bon

per

yea

r

soil carbon sequestrationsequestration from fossil power generationsequestration from synfuels productionsequestration from H2 productionsynfuelsfinal energynuclearsolarbiomass550 ppmv emissions

CBF 550 AOG 550

Uncertain Technology …

Need flexibility while developing technology

Analyses from Jae Edmonds, 2001

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When take a cost effective technology out of the portfolio, the costs of stabilizing CO2

are raised—The Value of Carbon Capture & Sequestration

CBF

NOTES

CP=Carbon capture & sequestration from fossil fuels used to generate electric power.

H2 Seq.=Fossil fuels used as feedstocks for hydrogen production with carbon capture and sequestration.

Results from Jae Edmonds, 2001

No Sequestration

Soil Seq. Only

Central Power Seq.

CP + H2 Seq.

CP + H2 + Soil Seq.

750 ppmv

650 ppmv

550 ppmv450 ppmv

$6,845

$4,738$4,928

$3,326

$2,180$1,453$1,034

$940 $520 $389$529$377 $299

$149 $123$266 $193 $137 $62 $52$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$ bi

llion

s

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ASC---The Climate Change ChallengeASC---The Climate Change Challenge

Stabilization requires fundamental change in the energy system

Technology advances are key to stabilizing CO2 concentrations and

controlling costs

Diversified technology portfolios are essential to manage risk Technologies that fill the “gap” are not part of the current energy system. Carbon capture and sequestration technologies expand dramatically. The technology portfolio changes over time. Some technologies are more important when others are also available. Some technologies expand their relative importance without expanding their

absolute deployment.

Need to revisit the technology strategy frequently

Energy R&D funding needs to be extensively increased as part of ASC Solution will also require public-private partnerships

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(percentages indicates real growth from 1985-1995)

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000

Mil

lions o

f C

onsta

nt 1995 U

S D

oll

ars

1985 1995-9%

8%

-74%-75%

-88%-6%-49%-33% 32%

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

United

Stat

esJa

pan

Canad

a

Europ

ean U

nion

German

y

United

King

dom

The N

etherl

ands

Italy

mill

ions

of

1995

US

$

.

Other Energy PrivateOther Energy PublicEnergy Conservation PrivateEnergy Conservation PublicFossil PrivateFossil PublicFusion PrivateFusion PublicNuclear Fission PrivateNuclear Fission PublicRenewable PrivateRenewable Public

Energy Research Declining,

Not Climate

Focused.

Uncoordinated, &

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Wood

Coal

OilOil (feedstock)

Gas

Hydro Nuclear

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

It traditionally has taken 50 years or more for a technology to grow from 1 to 50% of the market.

Energy R&D

What is done in the next 10 years will strongly influence what is possible in the next 50 years