1 the challenges of evaluation in zambia in turbulent times ideas global assembly 2011 11 – 15...
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The Challenges of Evaluation in Zambia in Turbulent TimesIDEAS GLOBAL ASSEMBLY
2011 11 – 15 April – Amman, Jordan
By: John Tembo Njovu
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ZambiaLandlocked southern
African country.752, 618 Square KM
(Jordan 92,300 square KM).
12,935,000 people (7/2010 estimates). Jordan 6,407,085).
Independence 24 October 1964.
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Objectives
Show challenges of managing for results and accountability in Zambia: -
Area of taxation and good governance, during a time of global crises.
Maybe a lesson for other countries and people interested in M&E.
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Background Globalisation ties many countries together through commercial and financial links.
Turbulences in any country affect socio-economic development in many states.
The recent global crises in the 3Fs have an effect on the socio-economic development of Zambia and many other countries.
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Zambia’s 2030 VisionBy 2030, be an upper middle-income nation:-1.Diversified and balanced sector-wise, geographically and socially , 2.Including gender wise,3.With a per capita income of not less than US$3,000 per annum, 4.and medium Human Development Index rating.
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Millennium Development GoalsZambia is signatory to a lot of international agreements.
Is implementing them. Attaining the MDGs by 2015 and implementing the Paris Declaration are a priority to Zambia.
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MDGs continued#1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
#2 Achieve universal primary education
#3 Promote gender equality#4 Reduce child mortality#5 Improve maternal health
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#6 Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases
#7 Ensure environmental sustainability
#8 Develop a global partnership for development
MDGs continued
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The Paris declarationPrinciples of aid effectiveness were
developed at a forum in Paris in February- March 2005.
Contained in the Paris Declaration (PD) of Aid Effectiveness.
Looks at the responsibility of developed and developing countries for delivering and managing donor aid in terms of five principles.
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Principles of aid effectiveness1. Ownership: Partner countries exercise effective leadership over their development
policies, and strategies and co-ordinate development actions.
2. Alignment: Donors base their overall support on partner countries’ national development strategies, institutions and procedures.
3. Harmonization: Donors’ actions are more harmonized, transparent and collectively effective.
4. Managing for results: Managing resources and improving decision-making for results
5. Mutual Accountability: Donors and partners are accountable for development results.
Zambia may be evaluated by partners on: OwnershipManaging for results Zambia has tried to show commitment by implementing measures on governance and macroeconomics based on the above two principles. Government has also included civil society in the implementation of PDs. It has introduced long term planning and abandoned the cash budget system. The Fifth National Development Plan is about to end this year.
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Evaluation of ZambiaZambia may be evaluated by partners on the PD on: 1.Ownership 2.Managing for results
shows commitment by implementing measures on governance and macroeconomics based on the above two principles. Cooperating partners deliver General Budget Support to Zambia.
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Implementation of the Paris Declaration
Implementation is mainly at the ministerial level.
Need to develop the capacity of government officials on all levels.
Otherwise, government officials will see M&E as an outside driven tool.
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CommitmentGovernment has also included civil society in the implementation of PDs.
It has introduced long term planning and abandoned the cash budget system.
The Fifth National Development Plan (2006-10) was completed last year.
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Strategic plan and reportsFirst seven are targeted toward the
developing countries. The actions to achieve the above are
based on a national strategic plan. Zambia disseminating information on
its progress toward the MDGs through biannual reports.
However, I am not aware whether there are independent reports from civil society.
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National Development PlansThe Fifth National Development plan contains the set of strategies for poverty reduction that was used by the government of Zambia during the period 2006 to 2010.
The Sixth National development will be for the next 5 years from 2011 t0 2016.
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Government’s plansM&E emphasised in National Development Plans.
Government establishing M&E units in ministries and other state institutions.
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Cooperating partnersFinance most of Zambia’s poverty alleviation programs.
These programs are very vital especially in the areas of health, education, justice, sanitation and water.
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Funds
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Financial crisis
Financial crisisLuckily, Zambia does not seem to have got adversely affected by the 2008-10 global financial crises. However, if there are further turbulences in the 3Fs, Zambia may not achieve the MDGs.
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Foreign Direct InvestmentsZambia has to fight with the rest of the world for Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) mainly from private sources. These sources rely on cheap finances in the developed nations.
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Turbulence in the global financial system
Turbulence in the USA financial system and the European Monetary Union has adverse implications on investments, jobs and taxation in Zambia.
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Tax revenueNew foreign investors in Zambia tend to be given tax and other concessions.
Therefore, their contributions to tax revenue are minimal.
It may take a lot of year for most Zambians to feel the benefits of FDI.
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Taxation policiesTurbulences in the global market
tend to affect business activities in Zambia and tax revenue collections.
Present tax policies aimed at attracting more FDI and making it easy for private enterprises and citizens to do business in Zambia.
They are also aimed at achieving the government goals of pro-poor socio-economic development and good governance.
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Taxation of extractive industriesZambia’s relies mainly on copper
mining.Efforts are being made to diversify to
agriculture and tourism.The government has introduced Profit
Variable tax, an income tax, to replace the Windfall tax.
The Windfall tax was introduced in 2008 and scrapped off four months after the death of president Levy Mwanawasa, the pioneer of the latter.
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Fuel
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Among the highest in the region. Any raise in the high cost of fuel
raises the cost of doing business and prices of goods and services.
Not only adversely affects motorists and forces some to park their vehicles,
but also adversely affects all sectors of socio-economic development from agriculture to mining.
Cost of fuel
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Fuel and the energy sectorElectricity in Zambia is generated mainly from
the Kariba dam and Kafue gorge power stations.However, the hydro power stations are not able
to cope with the high local and regional demand (increase in mining activities and supporting industries).
Some rural town use diesel generators.Frequent load shedding by ZESCO; especially during dry season.Many individuals, private and govt
organisations have bought back up power generators.
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Energy industry and revenue
Tax revenues are adversely affected when there is a slowdown in economic activities due to high fuel prices or constraints in energy supply.
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FoodMaize field Plenty and scarce
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Prices of foodLucky to have bumper harvest of maize, the
staple food, and wheat. Therefore, prices have been low and kept stable. However, Zambians have also acquired tastes for
imported foods. Therefore, price movements on the global
market also affect the price of foods on the local markets.
There has also been speculative delivery and hoarding of certain types of food on the market by some business people who wish to create shortages, up the prices and make a profit.
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Climatic changesThere are certain areas of Zambia
adversely affected by climatic changes.They suffer from floods during the rainy
season and drought during the dry season. The vulnerable people in these areas
become internally displaced people. The government, some members of civil
society and cooperating partners has to move these people to temporary camps and feed them.
Resources have to be found to shift, shelter and feed these people.
Financial, technical and food aid flow become important at these times.
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3Fs Risks to Zambia’s socio-economic development
Therefore, the risks to Zambia are mainly from the:1.Financial crisis in interconnected American and European financial markets and global capital flow;2.Actions of development banks and other major financial lenders to government;
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Risks (Continued)3. Slow economic growth in developed
economies and the prospects of central banks raising interest rates;
4. Impact of Chinese currency against the major currencies;
5. Fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and possible decrease in demand for Zambian raw materials;
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Risks (Continued)6. The rising prices of food on
the global market;7. The rising prices of fuel on
the global market;8. The adverse impact of
climatic change; and9. Social instability.
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Effect on M&E programmesFinancial and technical capacity constraints also affect M&E programs of both government, private and civil society.
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External stakeholdersThe evaluation of these important programs has for some time now been driven by demand of external stakeholders through their agreements with government, funded NGOs or charitable developmental organisations.
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Focus internallyThe focus internally has been mainly on monitoring and not much on evaluation. The challenges of evaluation in Zambia in turbulent times posed by the global crises have not yet received attention among governance and research institutions.
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Present and futureMost of my colleagues look at global crises as areas for economics, research, planning and forecasting. However, since there are adverse effects on national socio-economic policies and programs of national 2030 Vision, it is important that evaluation should consider the effects of the 3Fs on these policies and programs.
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Evaluation should bring more objectivity to research, designing planning and implementations of development programs related to the 2030 Vision.
This should be especially on mitigation measures of effects of global developments in the areas of pro-poor socio-economic development and good governance.
Evaluation and research
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Risk analysisRisks posed to development programs by global crises and changes should be considered during the design and implementation of programs and projects.
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Risk ManagementEvaluations should provide useful information that will be timely to help decision makers make informed decision on policies and programs.
These decisions should have positive effects on economic growth, good governance and social cohesion.
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Some of evaluation lessons for Zambia1. While a lot of effort may be focused on
impacts of internal policies and programs, some attention must be paid to external developments of globalization;
2. Zambia must partner with other governments regionally and globally to evaluate global policies and programmes that have impact on its socio-economic development;
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Some of evaluation lessons for Zambia3. Zambia may have to voice out directly
to citizens of developed nations when certain policies of governments of developed nations are not good in global terms on its people’s socio-economic development and natural environment and on the global village;
4. Evaluation should be timely and make a major difference and mainly be focused on its use for decision makers.
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Some of evaluation lessons for Zambia
5.Zambia still has challenges of developing evaluation capacity in both government and NGOs.
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CONCLUSION1.Globalisation ties countries together through
commercial and financial links. 2.Therefore, turbulences in any country have effects
that have far reaching ripples on socio-economic development in many states.
3.Good solutions at national level may not be so good if considered at a global level.
4.Challenges being faced by most of the nations due to global crises may need global cooperation in tackling them.
5.Evaluations should create out of Zambia’s and global experiences information that leaders and managers can be able to use to eradicate poverty in not only Zambia but the whole world.
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THE END