1st MEDCOF & 10st SEECOF

Sources for Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14

Dragan Mihić RHMS of Serbia / SEEVCCC

Based on:

• WMOLC-MME – WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

• RCM-SEEVCCC – Regional Climate Model of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center

• EUROSIP

• ECMWF – The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Climate outlook for winter season

• IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - temperature

NS No Signal

BN Below Normal

AN Above Normal

T

ECMWFNS

EUROSIP AN

RCM-SEEVCCC AN

WMOLC AN east and central Serbia

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - precipitation

NS No Signal

BN Below Normal

N Normal

RR

ECMWFNS for north

BN

EUROSIP NS

RCM-SEEVCCC

N to BN in southwest

WMOLCNS

• Normally cold and humid winter for the most of the country

• Somewhat warmer in northern and western regions

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - conclusion

• Precipitation deficit in western and south-western parts

• No signal for temperature and almost for precipitation

• Exceptions:

- island of Crete and east cost of Mediterranean, above normal temp.

- some parts of central Balkans, below normal precipitation; western part of central Turkey, islands of Crete and Cyprus, above normal precip.

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - ECMWF

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - EUROSIP

• Aabove normal over Balkan Peninsula, no signal for temperature over other parts of SEECOF region

• No clear signal for precipitation

• Above normal temperature: northern half of Balkan Peninsula, central and easternmost parts of Turkey and Caucasus region

• Precipitation:

- Above: Carpathian Mountains, Caucasus region, Adriatic and Black Sea coasts

- Below: western and southern parts of both Balkan Peninsula and Turkey

- Normal: all other parts

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - SEEVCCC

• Temperature: above normal in Israel, on Carpathian mountains, western, south-western and south Balkan Peninsula

• Precipitation: no signal for the most of region, below normal on Cyprus, above normal in central part of south Caucasus region

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – WMOLC-MME

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – IRI

Temperature: above normal most part of Balkans, Middle east and Caucasus region

Precipitation, no clear signal

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 – comparing with the last winter

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 - conclusion

• use EUROSIP/ WMOLC-MME for the moment

• consensus on reference period, standardize products to be used

• maybe sub-regions and sub-season

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

WWW. HIDMET.GOV.RS

WWW. SEEVCCC.RS