1 speaker scenarios (stefan hajkowicz)
TRANSCRIPT
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www.csiro.au
Fast Forward to Year 2025Four Scenarios Describing the Digital Marketplace for Queensland Government Services
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
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Data61 Strategic Foresight
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1. Ice Cream
3. Car Trip2. ChildrenUse activity books and
games
Take normal
careEffective strategy not yet identified by humankind
Use serviettes
Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?
Scenario & Strategy Planning Concepts
Things That Could Happen on a family Holiday (3 scenarios and 3 strategies)
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Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson4 |
Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what
day is the pond completely covered?
Image: Pixabay
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Pond
Cov
erag
e (S
quar
e M
etre
s)
Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered.
Frog Doesn’t Know Anything is Happening Yet
Frog Suspects
Something Happening
Frog realises what’s
happening & tries to respond
50% Coverage
Image: Pixabay
100% Coverage
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Characterising the marketplace for Queensland Government services (e.g. health, education, transport, accommodation, community and other services) in the year 2025.
THE SCENARIOS
1. Heritage 3. Turbocharge
4. Stargate2. New Order
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Horizontal AxisExtent of Digital Immersion (Deep to Shallow)
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DEEP - The Data Explosion
Jun 2010
Dec 2010
Jun 2011
Dec 2011
Jun 2012
Dec 2012
Jun 2013
Dec 2013
Jun 2014
Dec 2014
Jun 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Thou
sand
Ter
abyt
es
Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband
And we’d need another 75m to show you the 2025 forecast.
According to IBM The world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years.
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DEEP – Computing Speed19
71
1974
1982
1989
1995
1999
2003
2008
2012
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Tr
ansis
tors
(mill
ions
)
Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years
And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster …
Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?
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DEEP - The Internet of Things
20062 Billion Devices
201515 Billion Devices
2020200 Billion Devices
Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia
225 times more functionality
40,000 times more functionality
Metcalfe's LawValue of a network = n2
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Wall-Ye VIN Robot Image Source: AFPSource: Wired Magazine
DEEP - The Reach of Robotics
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DEEP - Task Automation and Job Replacement
“More than 5 million Aussie Jobs [40% of workforce] gone in 10-15 years”- CEDA Report, Australia’s Future Workforce, 2015
“By one popular estimate 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist”
- World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs and Skills, 2016
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SHALLOW – What Robots Can’t Do
After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in …
20 mins.
The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
Image source: Su-Star
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SHALLOW – Photographers Versus Lab Staff
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Australian Photographic Industry
PhotographersDevelopers/printers
Empl
oym
ent (
'000
s)
Data Source: ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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Out of every 10 Australians 6 have been a victim of cybercrime
Of all victims 46 percent experienced a cybercrime incident in the past 12 months
In 2013 A$1.06 billion was stolen from Australian citizens in cybercrime events
The average financial loss per victim in 2013 was A$201
5 million Australians fell victim to cybercrime last year
SHALLOW – Cybercrime, The Untamed Tiger
Australian Institute of Criminology
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SHALLOW - Information
overload, digital exhaustion and
unplugging
.
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Vertical AxisExtent of Institutional Change (Substantial to Limited)
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Ronald CoaseRonald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
SUBSTANTIAL – Time to Rewrite the Theory of the Firm?
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SUBSTANTIAL - New Platform Economies
GLG
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New Uber Drivers in the United States
A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016
SUBSTANTIAL – When the Model Works, It Grows Quickly
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SUBSTANTIAL – The Innovation Imperative & Organisational Redesign
World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen
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LIMITED – Can’t See the P2P Economy Yet (In Official Data)But it may be on its way?
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30% Casual employment by age group
20-2930-3940-4950-5960+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% Self-employment by age group
Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, detailed quarterly labour force survey
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LIMITED – Hurdles Before the Global P2P Economy
Consumer trust
Government regulation
Competition from longstanding incumbents
Quality & reliability
perceptions
A plausible scenario is that in 10 years (the time frame for this study) the peer-to-peer economy has gone through a few expand-contract cycles but
isn’t too much bigger than now…
Public relations
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LIMITED – Organisational Momentum
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Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson25 |
Characterising the marketplace for Queensland Government services (e.g. health, education, transport, accommodation, community and other services) in the year 2025.
THE SCENARIOS
1. Heritage 3. Turbocharge
4. Stargate2. New Order
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www.csiro.au
Data 61Dr Stefan HajkowiczPrincipal Research Scientistt +61 7 3833 5540e [email protected]
Thank you