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1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December 11-12, 2003 Wout Ultee Interuniversity Center for Sociology (ICS) at Radboud University Nijmegen, Netherlands

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Page 1: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

1

Sociology’s three big questions

THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS

and

Presentation at the

Danish Institute for Social Research

Copenhagen, Denmark

December 11-12, 2003

Wout Ultee

Interuniversity Center for Sociology (ICS) at Radboud University Nijmegen, Netherlands

Page 2: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

2

THE FIRST SMALL DUTCH QUESTION

LEAVING CHURCH

Page 3: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

3

IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY

DUTCH SOCIETY CONSISTED

NOT SO MUCH OF CLASSES LAYERED

FROM TOP TO BOTTOM

BUT OF RELIGIOUS PILLARS

RISING UP NEXT TO EACH OTHER

THOSE PILLARS SHAKE SINCE THE 1960S

WHY?

Page 4: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

4

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION

RATIONALIZATION

RISE OF SCIENCE

Page 5: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

5

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION

RATIONALIZATION

RISE OF SCIENCE

RISING GENERAL LEVEL OF

EDUCATION

Page 6: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

6

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION

RATIONALIZATION

RISE OF SCIENCE

RISING GENERAL LEVEL OF

EDUCATION

RELIGIONS WITH FEWER

MAGICAL MEANS OF

SALVATION

Page 7: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

7

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION

RATIONALIZATION

RISE OF SCIENCE

RISING GENERAL LEVEL OF

EDUCATION

RELIGIONS WITH FEWER

MAGICAL MEANS OF

SALVATION

LEAVING CHURCH

Page 8: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

8

PERCENTAGES FROM THE DUTCH CENSUS AND FROM SURVEYS

1930

1947

1960

1971

1983

1990

1997

CATH LIBPROT ORTHOPROT REST NONE

34

36

38

39

36

33

32

37

34

31

25

19

17

15

8

9

9

9

8

8

7

5

4

4

3

5

5

6

14

17

19

24

32

38

39

Page 9: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

9

PUZZLING FINDING:

HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THE PERCENTAGE OF CATHOLICS IN THE NETHERLANDS ROSE A BIT

BETWEEN 1960 AND 1971,

WHEREAS ‘EVERYBODY’ KNOWS THAT PRIESTS AND LAITY LEFT THE

CATHOLIC CHURCH IN THRONGS?

Page 10: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

10

TIME-SERIES OF CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA ARE MISLEADING ABOUT INDIVIDUAL CHANGE

FOR CLOSED POPULATIONS, THEY ONLY TELL ABOUT NET CHANGES

THEY ARE PARTICULARY MISLEADING IF COHORT CHANGES ARE TAKING PLACE

IN THE NETHERLANDS THE CATHOLIC BIRTH RATE WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN

THAT OF OTHER DENOMINATIONS (INCLUDING NO DENOMINATION)

Page 11: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

11

DUTCH POPULATION BY ABSOLUTE NUMBER 1960-1971, ABSOLUTE NUMBERS ( * 1000) ACCORDING TO CENSUS

AND ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

CENSUS 1960

BIRTHS 60-71 +

DEATHS 60-71 -

NET MIGRATION -

OTHER LOSSES -

CENSUS 1971

4,634

1,115

387

49

178

5,274

3,240

587

391

7

354

3,076

1,069

277

93

7

21

1,225

2,102

538

136

6

-569

3,079

CATH LIBPROT ORPROT NONE

Page 12: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

12

NIJMEGEN-GROUP 1998 3M-MAC DATA SET

RANDOM SAMPLE SURVEY OF DUTCH POPULATION

DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF AS A MEMBER OF A CHURCH (if yes, which one)?

DID YOU EVER CONSIDER YOURSELF AS A MEMBER OF A CHURCH (if yes, which one)?

WHEN DID YOU STOP CONSIDERING YOURSELF AS A MEMBER OF A CHURCH?

THERE IS NO DUTCH CENSUS ANYMORE

WHAT IS MORE, LOSSES SHOULD BE PINNED DOWN ON AGE OP PERSONS WITH KNOWN YEAR OF BIRTH

Page 13: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

13

HYPOTHESES WERE TESTED WITH PARAMETERS FROM

EVENT-HISTORY MODELS FOR 1998 3M-MAC DUTCH DATA

IT IS KNOWN FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL SURVEYS THAT

PEOPLE WITH MORE EDUCATION ARE LESS LIKELY

TO BE A CHURCH MEMBER

ARE THEY ALSO MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH AND IF SO, WHY IS THIS SO?

Page 14: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

14

IN SIMPLE MODELS PERSONS WITH MORE EDUCATION (AS A TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE)

ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

LIBERAL PROTESTANTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO THAN CATHOLICS, AND ORTHODOX

PROTESTANTS ARE EVEN LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

Page 15: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

15

GENERAL HYPOTHESIS

BEHAVIOUR DETERMINED BY MOTIVES AND OPPORTUNITIES

EDUCATION PROVIES A MOTIVE FOR LEAVING CHURCH

AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS

RELIGIOUS MARKETS OFFER OPPORTUNITIES FOR LEAVING

CHURCH

AND FAMILIES AND STATES LIMIT OPPORTUNITIES FOR DOING SO

Page 16: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

16

SINCE STARK

THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH

IS BIG IN THE SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION

THIS NAME IS A MISNOMER

IANNACONE NOW ADVERTISES WITH THE LABEL

MARKET THEORY OF RELIGION

Page 17: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

17

THE LABEL MARKET THEORY OF RELIGION IS TOO BAD SINCE THE U.S. QUESTION IS ABOUT

FREE MARKET VERSUS STATE RELIGION

AND THAT WAY OF FRAMING THE QUESTION

MISPLACES THE EMPHASIS FOR THE NETHERLANDS

SINCE THE QUESTION THERE IS ABOUT

THE FAMILY PLUS THE STATE

VERSUS THE MARKET

IN THE NETHERLANDS, THE STATE FULLY FUNDS NOT ONLY ITS OWN SECULAR SCHOOLS, BUT ALSO

PROTESTANT AND CATHOLIC (AND WHATEVER) SCHOOLS

Page 18: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

18

IF IN A PROVINCE THE PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION THAT DOES NOT BELONG TO A

CHURCH IS HIGHER,

CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH ARE HIGHER

IF IN A PROVINCE THE GENERAL LEVEL OF EDUCATION OF THE POPULATION IS HIGHER,

CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH ARE HIGHER

MARKET HYPOTHESES TESTED AND CORROBORATED;

FINDINGS

Page 19: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

19

FAMILY HYPOTHESES TESTED AND CORROBORATED

CHIILDREN OF PARENTS WITH A HIGHER STANDARD OF LIVING, ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

CHILDREN OF PARENTS WHO VOTED LEFT-WING, ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

CHILDREN OF PARENTS WHO WENT TO CHURCH MORE FREQUENTLY ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

Page 20: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

20

MORE FAMILY HYPOTHESES TESTED; SURPRISING FINDING ABOUT CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY MIXED MARRIAGES

CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY MIXED MARRIAGES ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE

CHURCH THAN CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY HOMOGAMOUS MARRIAGES

CHILDREN FROM MARRIAGES WITH ONE NON-RELIGIOUS PARENT, ARE MORE LIKELY TO

LEAVE CHURCH THAN CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY HOMOGAMOUS MARRIAGES

Page 21: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

21

FAMILY PLUS STATE HYPOTHESIS TESTED AND PARTLY CORROBORATED;

FINDINGS:

PERSONS WHO ATTENDED A PROTESTANT SCHOOL ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE

CHURCH THAN CHILDREN WHO WENT TO A PUBLIC SCHOOL; PERSONS WHO WENT TO A CATHOLIC SCHOOL ARE MORE LIKELY

TO DO SO

POSSIBLE EXPLANATION: LOCALLY PROTESTANT SCHOOLS FACED MORE COMPETITION FROM

SECULAR SCHOOLS THAN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS?

Page 22: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

22

HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE INTERPLAY OF OPPORTUNITIES AND MOTIVES

TESTED AND CORRBORATED

PERSONS WHO LEFT THEIR PARENTAL HOME AT AN EARLIER AGE AREMORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

IF PERSONS LEFT HOME EARLIER AND THEIR PARENTS WENT TO CHURCH MORE OFTEN, THEN

THEIR CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH ARE HIGHER

IF PERSONS LEFT HOME EARLIER AND THEIR EDUCATION WAS HIGHER, THEN THEIR CHANCES OF

LEAVING CHURCHES ARE HIGHER

Page 23: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

23

THE HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE INTERPLAY OF MOTIVES AND OPPORTUNITIES

ACCOUNTED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE SIMPLE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN

EDUCATION AND LEAVING CHURCH

Page 24: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

24

THE SECOND SMALL DUTCH QUESTION

WORKING WIVES AND THEIR HUSBANDS

Page 25: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

25

ARE PART OF THE INEQUALITY QUESTION AND PART OF THE COHESION QUESTION

CONNUBIUM

QUESTIONS ABOUT CONNUBIUM,

(WHO MARRIES WHOM, HOMOGAMY)

Page 26: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

26

ARE PART OF THE INEQUALITY QUESTION AND PART OF THE COHESION QUESTION

INEQUALITY

CLOSURE

MOBILITY CONNUBIUM

QUESTIONS ABOUT CONNUBIUM,

(WHO MARRIES WHOM, HOMOGAMY)

Page 27: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

27

ARE PART OF THE INEQUALITY QUESTION AND PART OF THE COHESION QUESTION

INEQUALITY

CLOSURE

MOBILITY CONNUBIUM

ISOLATION / TIES

COHESION

CONVIVIUM

QUESTIONS ABOUT CONNUBIUM,

(WHO MARRIES WHOM, HOMOGAMY)

Page 28: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

28

BOURDIEU ADDRESSED THE QUESTION OF THE REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY, THE

TRANSMISSION OF ADVANTAGES FROM ONE GENERATION TO THE NEXT

AND BYPASSED THE QUESTION OF THE RECONSTITUTION OF INEQUALITY BY WAY OF

CONNUBIUM

BOURDIEU FORGOT

IT TAKES A MAN AND A WOMAN TO MAKE A CHILD

Page 29: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

29

IT IS WELL-KNOWN THAT IN ALL COUNTRIES OF THE HIGHLY

INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD

COUPLES TEND TO CONSIST OF MEN AND WOMEN WITH THE SAME LEVEL OF EDUCATION

IT IS LESS WELL-KNOWN THAT THE LABOUR MARKET POSITION OF

SPOUSES (EMPLOYED, NONEMPLOYED) TENDS TO BE THE SAME TOO

Page 30: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

30

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM

Page 31: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

31

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM

CONNUBIUM

Page 32: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

32

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM

CONNUBIUM

Page 33: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

33

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM

CONNUBIUM

CROSS-CLASS MARRIAGES

Page 34: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

34

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM

CONNUBIUM

CROSS-CLASS MARRIAGES

EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY

Page 35: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

35

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM

CONNUBIUM

CROSS-CLASS MARRIAGES

EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY

(NON)EMPLOYMENT HOMOGAMY

Page 36: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

36

AT FIRST SIGHT IT IS NOT PUZZLING THAT LABOUR MARKET POSITIONS OF HUSBANDS

AND WIVES TEND TO BE THE SAME

EDUCATION MAKES FOR LESS UNEMPLOYMENT

AND IF SPOUSES HAVE THE SAME LEVEL OF EDUCATION, THEN (NON)EMPLOYMENT HOMOGAMY IS A

BY-PRODUCT OF EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY

Page 37: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

37

HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES LIKE

NATIONAL LABOR FORCE SURVEYS

MAKES CLEAR THAT

(UN)EMPLOYMENT HOMOGAMY

PERSISTS AFTER CONTROLLING FOR

EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY

AND ALSO AFTER CONTROLLING FOR

THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Page 38: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

38

THAT IS, PROCESSES OF MUTUAL REINFORCEMENT ARE GOING ON

HYPOTHESES ON PARTNER-EFFECTS

HUSBAND-EFFECTS ARE STRONGER THAN WIFE-EFFECTS

PARTNER-EDUCATION MAKES FOR MORE EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY

AND FOR LESS EMPLOYMENT EXIT

PARTNER-INCOME MAKES FOR LESS EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY AND FOR

MORE EMPLOYMENT EXIT

Page 39: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

39

HOW TO STUDY PARTNER EFFECTS? 1993 3M-MAC DUTCH DATA-SET

WITH EDUCATIONAL HISTORY, (NON)EMPLOYMENT HISTORY AND

INCOME HISTORY

NOTE THAT AN ASSOCIATION IN CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA BETWEEN EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT MAY RESULT

FROM LOW-EDUCATED PERSONS BEING FIRED MORE OFTEN OR FROM THEM BEING REFUSED A NEW JOB MORE OFTEN,

OR FROM BOTH

Page 40: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

40

FINDINGS ON WIFE’S EMPLOYMENT EXIT WITH

HUSBAND’S EDUCATION AND INCOME AS

TIME- DEPENDENT COVARIATES IN A

MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS

AN EMPLOYED WIFE IS LESS LIKELY TO EXIT EMPLOYMENT

IF HER EDUCATION IS HIGHER

AND SHE IS MORE LIKELY TO DO SO

IF HER HUSBAND’S EDUCATION AND INCOME ARE HIGHER

Page 41: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

41

FINDINGS ON HUSBAND’S EMPLOYMENT EXIT WITH WIFE’S EDUCATION AS A

TIME- DEPENDENT COVARIATE IN A

MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS

AN EMPLOYED HUSBAND IS MORE LIKELY TO EXIT EMPLOYMENT

IF HIS EDUCATION IS HIGHER

AND LESS LIKELY IF HIS WIFE’S EDUCATION IS HIGHER

Page 42: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

42

FINDINGS ON WIFE’S EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY WITH HUSBAND’S EDUCATION AND INCOME

AS TIME - DEPENDENT COVARIATES IN A MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS

A NON-EMPLOYED WIFE IS MORE LIKELY TO RE-ENTER EMPLOYMENT

IF HER EDUCATION IS HIGHER

SHE IS MORE LIKELY TO RE-ENTER IF HER HUSBAND’S EDUCATION IS HIGHER

AND SHE IS LESS LIKELY TO RE-ENTER IF HER HUSBAND’S INCOME IS HIGHER

Page 43: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

43

FINDINGS ON HUSBAND’S EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY WITH WIFE’S EDUCATION AS A TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE IN

A MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS

A NON-EMPLOYED HUSBAND IS MORE LIKELY TO RE-ENTER EMPLOYMENT

IF HIS EDUCATION IS HIGHER

AND HIS CHANCES OF RE-ENTRY DO NOT DEPEND UPON THE EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE

Page 44: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

44

THE THIRD SMALL DUTCH QUESTION

COMPULSORY SCHOOLING AND

EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY

Page 45: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

45

DID THE EXTENSION OF STATE DID THE EXTENSION OF STATE

COMPULSORY SCHOOLING COMPULSORY SCHOOLING

RESULT IN LESS DOWNWARD RESULT IN LESS DOWNWARD

EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY?EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY?

CHANGES IN THE NETHERLANDS DURING THE

TWENTIETH CENTURY

Page 46: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

46

ONCE MORE THE PROBLEM OF INEQUALITY

INEQUALITY

CLOSURE

MOBILITY

Page 47: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

47

ONCE MORE THE PROBLEM OF INEQUALITY

INEQUALITY

CLOSURE

MOBILITY

FATHER-SON CLASS MOBILITY

Page 48: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

48

ONCE MORE THE PROBLEM OF INEQUALITY

INEQUALITY

CLOSURE

MOBILITY

FATHER-SON CLASS MOBILITY

FATHER-SON AND FATHER-

DAUGHTER EDUCATIONAL

MOBILITY

Page 49: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

49

Previous Research on the Previous Research on the Netherlands: Netherlands:

Educational mobility increased according to:loglinear models with educational distributions fitted with trend constraints on uniform association and diagonal densities

Page 50: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

50

Present research: dataPresent research: data

Stacked data file from 31 surveys21,899 men/20,903 women; age over 25Fifteen 5-year birth cohorts (1900-1974)Father’s education 4 categories (low – high)Daughter’s/Son’s education 4 categories

(low – high)

Page 51: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

51

Four hypotheses from the field of stratification

One from each generation of stratification studies

Present research: Present research: hypotheseshypotheses

Page 52: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

52

Zero-generationZero-generation non-hypothesis non-hypothesis

There is a linear downward trend in uniform association and diagonal density

Page 53: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

53

First-generation First-generation hypothesishypothesis

A rising standard of living makes for lower uniform association and lower diagonal density

Page 54: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

54

Second-generation Second-generation hypothesishypothesis

Raising the age at which compulsory schooling ends makes for lower uniform

association and diagonal density

Page 55: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

55

Third-generation Third-generation hypothesishypothesis

Raising the age at which compulsory schooling ends does not alter the

density in the diagonal cell for the highest level of education

Page 56: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

56

How to derive macro hypotheses from micro hypotheses?

Embedding the four hypotheses Embedding the four hypotheses in general sociologyin general sociology

Page 57: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

57

First-generation First-generation hypothesis derivedhypothesis derived

going to school depends upon financial resources

people differ in financial resources

financial resources have increased and they have become more equally distributed in the course of time

Page 58: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

58

Second-generation Second-generation hypothesis derivedhypothesis derived

apart from individual actors there is an all powerful corporate actor: the state

and the state has raised the age of compulsory schooling

Coleman about corporate actors

Page 59: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

59

Third-generation Third-generation hypothesis derivedhypothesis derived

Highly educated parents deploy strategies compensating for state policies raising the age at

which compulsory schooling endsBourdieu about compensatory strategies

Elias about a spiraling process as a competitive outcome

Page 60: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

60

12

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ngth

of

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ciat

ion

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

cohort specific association linear trend

GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one general diagonal effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 1 Changes in Cohort Specific Association-Men

Page 61: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

61

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

cohort specific association linear trend

GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one uniform associat ion effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 2 Changes in Cohort Specific Diagonal Effects-Men

Page 62: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

62

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

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GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one uniform associat ion effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 3 Changes in Cohort Specific Diagonals 1 2 3-Men

Page 63: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

63

0.2

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

cohort specific association linear trend

GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one uniform associat ion effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 4 Changes in Cohort Specific Diagonal 4-Men

Page 64: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

64

12

34

stre

ngth

of

asso

ciat

ion

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

cohort specific association linear trend

GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one general diagonal effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 5 Changes in Cohort Specific Association-Women

Page 65: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

65

0.2

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of

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

cohort specific association linear trend

GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one uniform associat ion effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 6 Changes in Cohort Specific Diagonal Effects-Women

Page 66: 1 Sociology’s three big questions THREE SMALL DUTCH QUESTIONS and Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December

66

0.2

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

cohort specific association linear trend

GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one uniform associat ion effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 7 Changes in Cohort Specific Diagonals 1 2 3-Women

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0.2

.4.6

.81

stre

ngth

of

asso

ciat

ion

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

cohort specific association linear trend

GDP per Capita Age Compulsory Schooling

intergenerational educational mobility; the Netherlands 1900-1974

Model includes one uniform associat ion effect for each cohortHomogeneous equal scalings for education

Models for linear trend, GDP and Compulsory SchoolingGraph 8 Changes in Cohort Specific Diagonal 4-Women

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How do macro variables influence uniform association and diagonal densities?

Uniform association and diagonal densities derived from odds ratios

Odds ratios made up from an odds for moving up and an odds for moving down

Testing the third-generation Testing the third-generation hypothesis more severelyhypothesis more severely

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Hypotheses about oddsHypotheses about odds

Raising the age at which compulsory schooling ends, increases the odds for moving up.

But what does it do to the odds for moving down?Few states ever sought to increase the odds for

moving down.

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02

46

810

stre

ngth

of o

dds

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

Men in the Netherlands 1900-1974

dots proportional to sample size

intergenerational educational mobilityObserved Odds: Upward Move from Level 1 to Level 4

upward trend

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0.2

.4.6

.81

stre

ngth

of o

dds

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970birth cohort

Men in the Netherlands 1900-1974

dots proportional to sample size

intergenerational educational mobilityObserved Odds: Downward Move from Level 4 to Level 1

no trend or a downward trend

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TO BE CONTINUED

THE LONG-RUN AIM OF THE EXERCISE IS TO DETERMINE

WHETHER THE NOTION THAT THERE EXIST CULTURAL

RESOURCES (NEXT TO FINANCIAL RESOURCES) IS

SUPERFLUOUS

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A BONUS COMPARATIVE QUESTION

DOES EMPLOYMENT OF MIGRANTS DEPEND UPON

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, COUNTRY OF DESTINATION

AND SETTING (THE INTERPLAY OF COUNTRY OF

ORIGIN AND COUNTRY OF DESTINATION)?

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DATA FOR 18 HIGHLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES IN THE 1990s

AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA BELGIUM CANADA DENMARK FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE

IRELAND ITALY LUXEMBOURG NETHERLANDS PORTUGAL SPAIN SWEDEN UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES

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DATA ARE FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

PLUS THE PUBLIC USE SAMPLE OF THE CENSUS IN AUSTRALIA,

CANADA AND THE USA

AND SPECIFIC IMMIGRANT SURVEYS IN BELGIUM, GERMANY,

ITALY, NETHERLANDS AND UK

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INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES

AGE DURATION OF STAY

LANGUAGE PROFICIENCY

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THE DISTINGUISHED ORIGINS

CHINA, ITALY, PHILIPPINES, POLAND, TURKEY AND 182 OTHERS

NAMES RECODED INTO MEASURES

FOR POLITICAL SUPPRESSION, AND PREDOMINANCE OF

CHRISTIANITY

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THE NAMES OF THE DESTINTIONS WERE RECODED INTO

THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF A POINT SYSTEM FOR MIGRANTS

AND THE PARTICIPATION OF SOCIAL-DEMOCRATIC PARTIES IN

GOVERNMENT

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SETTING VARIABLES WERE

GINI ORIGIN / GINI DESTINATION GDP ORIGIN / GDP DESTINATION

GEOGRAPHIC DISTANCE RELATIVE GROUP SIZE

EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF GROUP

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CONTROL VARIABLES

LABOUR FORCE ACTIVITY OF NATIVES

NATURE OF SURVEY (MIGRANTS OVERSAMPLED)

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TO BE EXPLAINED ARE

INSIDE – OUTSIDE LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT – UNEMPLOYMENT

BOTH FOR MALES AND FEMALES

APPLIED WERE MULTI-LEVEL

MODELS

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RESULTS AFTER THE CONTROLS

THERE ARE THE EXPECTED

INDIVIDUAL EFFECTS OF AGE, DURATION

OF STAY, EDUCATION, LANGUAGE

PROFICIENCY

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SOCIAL DEMOCRACY IN COUNTRY OF DESTINATION MAKES FOR MORE

ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT,

POLITICAL SUPPRESSION IN COUNTRY OF ORIGIN FOR LESS AND

CHRISTINITY THERE FOR MORE ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT

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SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE SETTING EFFECTS WERE FOUND FOR

GDP ORIGIN / GDP DESTIONATION AND GEOGRAPHICAL DISTANCE

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MERGING NATIONAL FILES INTO A SUPER-FILE

HELPS ANSWERING QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMIC POSITION OF

MIGRANTS

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this presensation liberally quoted from studies I undertook in the course of the years with several Dutch scholars:

WIL ARTS

WIM BERNASCO

JOS DESSENS

JAAP DRONKERS

HENK FLAP

HARRY GANZEBOOM

NAN-DIRK DE GRAAF

PAUL DE GRAAF

JOHN HENDRICKX

WIM JANSEN

JAN LAMMERS

RUUD LUIJKX

ARIANA NEED

WILMA SMEENK

JEROEN SMITS

FRANK VAN TUBERGEN

WILLFRED UUNK

MAARTEN WOLBERS

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EXACT REFERENCES CAN BE FOUND ON MY WEB SITE, WHERE MY PRESENTATIONS HAVE BEEN POSTED TOO

http://www.socsci.kun.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee

Email: [email protected]