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1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Page 1: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

1

SEB Eastern EuropeanEquity Funds

Sven KunsingHead of Eastern European

Investment Management

SEB Wealth Management

Page 2: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

2

Agenda

Introduction to SEB Wealth Management Eastern Europe

Eastern European equity team & process

Eastern European equity products (a short overview)

SEB EE ex Russia Fund

SEB EE Small Cap Fund

Q&A

Page 3: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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SEB WM in Eastern Europe

Presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine

AuM 2.6 bn EUR (July 2007)– Eastern European equities management is most

important single business line (AuM €1.33bn)

Wide range of local products to local clients

Over 500 000 local (Eastern European) clients

SEB Eastern European equity mandate– SEB EE Small Cap since June 2003– Full EE equity mandate (4 funds) since July 2005– Redesign of products during 2006– Average Morningstar (3-year) rating 4.33

Page 4: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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SEB Eastern European Equity

Investment Team & Process

Page 5: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Why did SEB select us?We have delivered >500% return in <8 years

SEB Growth Fund performance since 1999 (in EUR)

SEB Growth Fund [perf %]

Emerging Markets, MSCI, Eastern Europe Index, Close [perf %]

SEB Östeuropafond [perf %]

Source: EcoWin, Bloomberg

Dec

99 00

Aug Dec

01

Apr Aug Dec

02

Apr Aug Dec

03

Apr Aug Dec

04

Apr Aug Dec

05

Apr Aug Dec

06

Apr Aug Dec

07

Apr Aug

Per

cent

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

SEB Baltic Fund mandate

Full SEB EE equity mandate

SEB Growth Fund (Bloomberg: UHIKASV ET) is an Estonian domiciled Eastern European equity fund managed by SEB EE Equity Team

SEB’s Eastern European equities mgmt fully

outsourced to London-based global manager

2003-2005 Partial in-sourcing

from Estonian team

2005 onwards: Full in-sourcing

from own Eastern European team

Page 6: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Sulev

SEB Russia

Alo

SEB ex Russia

Wojciech

SEB EE SmallCap

Piotr

SEB ÖsteuropaRaul

MaterialsDainius

Energy

Robert

Financials

Meelis

Healthcare

& Industrials

Wojciech

Macro Strategy

Peeter

Telecoms & Utilities

(left Feb 2007)

Taken in Dec 2006. Wojciech Wasilewski (Consumer sectors) joined the team in Jan 2007.

Eastern European equity team

Page 7: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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The TeamLocation and market experience

POLAND: sub-portfolio managers

Financials – Robert Sobieraj (11 years) Consumer Staples & Disc – Wojciech Wasilewski

(2 years) IT – Piotr Sieradzan (6 years)

macro strategist

Wojciech Bialek (12 years)

ESTONIA: fund managers

Sulev Raik (12 years) – SEB Russia Fund

Alo Kullamaa (11 years) – SEB EE ex Russia Fund

ESTONIA: sub-portfolio managers

Basic Materials – Raul Rannaste (10 years)

HealthCare, Industrials – Meelis Angerma (7 years)

LITHUANIA: sub-portfolio manager

Oil & Gas – Dainius Bloze (8 years)

Telecoms – Gediminas Milieska (3 years)

POLAND: fund managers

Piotr Sieradzan (6 years) - SEB Östeuropafond

Wojciech Rostworowski (15 years) – SEB EE Small Cap Fund

Fund managers (avg experience 11 years) Sector sub-portfolio managers (7 yrs)

Tallinn

Vilnius

Warsaw

Page 8: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Investment philosophy

capital markets are not always efficient – especially in underdeveloped

CEE region, even more so in Russia and in the CEE mid and small cap arena

analyzing stocks by sectors rather than by countries provides better

insight

in our team we need sub-portfolio managers rather than pure analysts

combining equity analysis with top-down insight will add value

each investment decision should have a good fundamental explanation –

fundamental analysis is the key to superior performance

We believe that…

Page 9: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Our investment style

“Reasonable price” or value is defined by combination of

absolute valuation based on discounted free cash flow

(DCF) models and

comparative valuation based on applicable valuation

indicators (EV/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/Comps, P/E, P/S, P/B

etc)

GARP: Growth At Reasonable Price

We seek companies with above average earnings growth potential, but we

also have an eye on value – we do not want to overpay for growth prospects

Page 10: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Bottom-up processDetails of the bottom-up process

Bottom-up stock picking forms the basis of our

investment process

Stock picking is carried out by 7 analysts covering 10 sectors Company visits Understand the business & know management, bear in mind

corporate governance issues (extremely important in this region) Preferred valuation method: DCF and modified Gordon Growth Model Comparative ratio analysis Identify long term growth factors/risks, short term catalysts Sub-portfolio manager’s performance evaluated by model

portfolio performance vs sector index

Page 11: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Company visitsintegral part of the investment process

Sulevvisiting Efes Brewery

Rostov na Donu

Sulevon a Lukoili oil field,Kogalym, Western

Siberia

Sulev with a gold bullion Uralelektromed,

Verhnaya PyshmaWestern SiberiaSulev & SS-17/Spanker

(intercontinental ballistic missile)Yuzhmash

Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine

Sulev & DainiusOn Kazakh oil fields

Page 12: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Top-down process

We use top-down inputs

to provide additional insight, but

it is not central* to our investment process

Identify macroeconomic value drivers– Economic growth– Overall country risk outlook– Interest rate outlook– FX outlook

Recommended sector allocation targets

* note: the importance of top-down process varies by product from being relatively

important for the SEB Östeuropafond to unimportant for the SEB CEE Small Cap Fund

Page 13: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Portfolio construction

The final responsibility for portfolio construction lies with the fund manager.

– Freedom to follow or not to follow exactly the sector model portfolios and

top-down process – model portfolios act as idea generators and are

interpreted by the fund manager

Bottom-up model portfolios Product portfolio

Top-down recommendations

Interpretation by fund manager

Page 14: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Summary: what makes us different?

Our Team

– We are truly LOCAL

– Multinational

– Experienced

– Talented

Our Investment Process

– Sector based research (vs country based)

– Focus on stock selection

Our organization

– Fun place to work – no bureacracy

– Personal responsibility/accountability

Page 15: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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SEB Eastern European Fund Range

Page 16: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Profit on convergence:SEB Eastern Europe ex Russia Fund

Alo Kullamaa Fund manager, ESTONIA

11 years of CEE equity market experience

SEB Eastern Europe ex Russia Fund

Bloomberg ticker SEBEEUA LX

Investment region Eastern Europe ex RussiaBenchmark Nomura CEE ex Russia

TE guidance 5-10%

Base currency EUR2007 YTD Performance (Jan 22 - August 31) +14.7%

Benchmark (Jan 22 - August 31) +14.8%

Morningstar rating (3 years)

Page 17: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Profit on change:SEB Russia Fund

SEB Russia Fund

Bloomberg ticker SEBRUSS LX

Inv universe Russia (+CIS countries)

Benchmark RTS indexTE guidance 5-10%

Base currency EUR

2007 YTD Performance (as of August 31) -3.1%Benchmark (as of August 31) -3.4%Morningstar rating n/a (new fund)

Sulev RaikFund manager, ESTONIA

12 years of CEE equity market experience

Page 18: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Eastern Europe3:SEB Eeastern European Small Cap Fund

Wojciech RostworowskiFund manager, POLAND

15 years of CEE equity market experience

SEB Eastern Europe Small Cap Fund

Bloomberg ticker ABBBASC LX

Investment region Eastern Europe (broad)Investment focus Small caps (<500m EUR)Benchmark noneBase currency EUR2007 YTD Performance (as of August 31) +11.5%

Benchmark (as of August 31) -

Morningstar rating (3 years)

Page 19: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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SEB ÖsteuropafondBloomberg: SEBOSTE SS

Piotr SieradzanFund manager, POLAND

6 years of CEE equity market experience

SEB Östeuropafond

Investment region Eastern Europe (broad)

Benchmark MSCI Eastern Europe 10/40

TE guidance 3-5%

Base currency SEK2007 Performance YTD (as of August 31) +7.0%Benchmark +7.2%Morningstar rating (3 years)

Page 20: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Chinese-style growth

with

Scandinavian-style risks:

SEB EE ex Russia Fund

Page 21: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Why invest to the converging equity markets of New Europe? Convergence is more than a date of EU entry, it is an ongoing process.

Growth dynamics (of personal disposable income, for instance) is “anchored” by EU averages – provide both momentum and also better long-term macro visibility compared to traditional emerging markets

Scope for new EU members to see sustained medium term GDP growth of double “old” Europe growth rate

Efficiency improvements in companies as a result of know-how transfers and educated workforce

Tax + labor cost competitiveness Massive inflows from EU Structural and Cohesion Fund in coming

years to reimburse investments to infrastructure and environmental projects– one of the GDP growth drivers

Liquidity and transparency have dramatically improved as regional stock markets mature structurally – many new listings; local pension&mutual funds stronger; more small cap coverage by brokers; EU-compliant regulation etc.

Page 22: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Strong GDP growth

11,4%11,9%

7,5%

3,9%

6,1%

8,3%

5,2%

7,7%

6,1% 6,1%

4,8%

5,7%

3,0%

8,0%

9,7%

8,0%

5,6%

2,3%

6,5%

8,7%

4,3%

6,7%6,1%

4,9% 4,8%

5,9%

2,9%

7,0%

8,2%

6,5%

5,0%

2,8%

5,5%

7,2%

4,0%

6,3% 6,2% 5,9%

4,5%5,3%

2,7%

6,5%

7,8%

6,0%

4,7%

3,0%

5,0%

6,8%6,4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Estonia

Latv

ia

Lithu

ania

Czech

Hunga

ry

Poland

Slovak

ia

Sloven

ia

Roman

ia

Bulgar

ia

Turke

y

Croat

ia

Serbia

EU 27

2006 2007E 2008E 2009E

Source: EcoWin, European Commission Spring 2007 Forecast, SEB Nordic Outlook August 2007

Page 23: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Economic growthBack to the future – you have already seen this 25 years ago

GDP per capita (in SEK)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

TIME: Estonia 1993 - 2027E

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

TIME: Nordics 1950 - 2005A

Estonia GDP/capita, SEK

Sweden GDP/capita, SEK

Finland GDP/capita, SEK

Page 24: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Play EU convergence – China-style growth with Scandinavian-style risks!

Selling Proposition Invests in strongly growing

economies in Balkans, Baltics and Central Europe

Focus on EU & Euro convergence themes

Geographically well-diversified pan-regional fund

Defensively biased – financials dominate, limited exposure to commodities and materials

Not benchmark-driven, but active & dynamic management style

Your Value AddedDiversification relative to developed markets

Limited risk compared to “true” emerging markets

Less risk compared to funds targeting only one country in the region

More exposure to domestic macro rather than to global themes

Increased probability of future performance

Page 25: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Bumpy road to Monetary UnionInflation LT

interest rate

Fiscal balance

% of GDP 06

Public debt

% of GDP 06

Currency

Currency regime Expected EMU entry

(optimistic scenario)

Maastricht reference

3,0* 6,4* -3,0 60,0 Smooth participation in ERM II for 2 years

Estonia 4,7 n/a, but ok +3,8 4,1 Kroon ERM II 2011

Latvia 7,0 4,5 +0,4 10,0 Lat ERM II 2012

Lithuania 4,2 4,2 -0,3 18,2 Litas ERM II 2011

Poland 1,6 5,3 -3,9 47,8 Zloty Float 2012

Hungary 6,2 7,1 -9,2 66,0 Forint Target zone(EUR) 2013

Czech 1,9 3,9 -2,9 30,4 Koruna Managed float (EUR) 2012

Slovenia 2,6 4,0 -1,4 27,8 Tolar ERM II Already in!

Slovakia 3,5 4,5 -3,4 30,7 Koruna ERM II 2009

Bulgaria 6,2 4,3 +3,3 22,8 Lev Currency board (EUR) 2016

Croatia 2,6 4,2 -2,3 42,1 Kuna Managed float (EUR) 2018

Romania 5,2 7,5 -1,9 12,4 Leu Managed float (EUR) 2017

Serbia 8,3 n/a 1,6 34,9 Dinar Free-float 2020?

Turkey 10,1 17,5 0,4 60,7 Lira Fee-float 2025?

*Referring to the period April 06 to March 07 Source: ECB Convergence report May 07

Page 26: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Cash

Slovakia

Croatia

Slovenia

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Turkey

Romania

Austria (Pan-CEE)

Hungary

Czech

Poland

Portfolio %

Benchmark %

Underweight mainstream, seek opportunities out of benchmark (August 31)

Page 27: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Sample pick: Erste Bank – CEE financial powerhouse

What makes us excited? Very low valuation - 2008E P/B 1,7 and P/E 11,7 with EPS growing 20-25% in

coming years and ROE close to 20% by 2009 Market is too sceptical on Romania what is still very “underbanked” and may

be a trigger for the stock Cyclical recovery in Austrian market Management has strong track record of crossborder expansion and delivering

on targets

Watch out for Economic slowdown in the region Regulatory issues such as lending restrictions

Central European and Balkan financial powerhouse with strong presence in Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Romania and Ukraine

Core strengths – retail leadership combined with wealth management

Page 28: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Thoughts on mid-term market outlook

Potential positives Potential negatives

High & steady growth in coming years; efficiency gains in companies

Global growth providing no major disappointments; commodities stay stable

With average P/Es in mid-teens, most of large caps still look reasonably valued

Local mutual and pension funds increasingly influential

Boom continues as balance sheets healthy

Baltics overheated; expected improvement in Hungary and Turkey does not materialize

Rising USD&EUR interest rates; less liquidity; deteriorating risk appetite; significantly higher oil prices

P/B has been rising (>2); some small caps very aggressively valued

Foreign investors may prefer other emerging markets

Too many IPOs & SPOs

Localmacro

Globalmacro

Valuation

Flows

M&A

Page 29: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Eastern Europe3:

SEB EE Small Cap Fund

Page 30: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Why Eastern European Small Caps?

Eastern Europe3 – general Eastern European story, leveraged

– More growth

– More benefits from structural change

– More exposure to development of domestic financial markets

– Less efficient valuation of equities = more opportunities

SEB ready to benefit due to

– Truly local team

– Local languages

– Contacts to local brokers

– Focused on bottom-up stock selection

– Active investment management

Page 31: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Small certainly can be beautiful

Polish Small Caps vs general Eastern European Equities

MSCI Eastern Europe Index, Close, EUR [rebase 12/31/1999 = 100.0]

sWIG80 Index (Polish small caps) [rebase 12/31/1999 = 100.0]

WIG20 Index (Polish large caps) [rebase 12/31/1999 = 100.0]

Source: Reuters EcoWin

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

50

100

200

400

800

1600

Page 32: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Portfolio as of August 31A very different composition vs traditional Eastern European indices

Poland32%

Cash3%

Hungary1%

Georgia1%

Turkey1%

Bulgaria1%

Latvia2%

Czech3%

Slovenia2%

Ukraine0%

Romania4%

Kazakhstan5%

Lithuania5%

Estonia6%

Pan-CEE8%

Russia26%

Industrials24%

Cash3%IT

3%

Utilities4%

HealthCare4%

Consumer Staples

5%

Telecom5%

Energy7%

Basic Materials10%

Consumer Discretionary

16%

Financials19%

Page 33: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Sample pick: Amrest – leading restaurant operator in CEE region AmRest is the second largest quick service and casual dining restaurant operator

in Poland and in other countries from CEE. The company operates a network of 243 restaurants in Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria and Russia.

What makes us excited? Amrest is a true growth story in otherwise defensive sector. The company strives

opening 100 restaurants annually, which translates into tripling sales by 2009. Ambitious strategy to run two new brands: Burger King and Starbucks and to

expand on the markets of the whole CEE region Recently Amrest acquired a Pizza Nord, which operates 22 KFC and 19 Pizza

Hut restaurants in Russia. Further expansion in Russia planned. Booming domestic consumption in Poland and other countries of the region to

support strong growth ambitions

Watch out for The expansion on CEE and CIS restaurant markets

may slow down The profitability may be hit by higher costs related to

wages, rental expenses

Page 34: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Sample pick: Rambler Media – largest Russian web portal

280m Russian speaking people globally, 145m in Russia Internet penetration has reached 25% (European average 40%) Russia will have largest number of internet users in Europe by 2010

What makes us excited? Largest Russian multi-service internet portal worldwide 62% of internet users in Russia regularly visit rambler.ru - 23.8 million unique

users and 1.8 billion page views every month. Internet ad market expected to grow threefold to $500m/year by 2011 and more

than fivefold to $850m/year by 2014 EBITDA margin to exceed 35% in 2009

Watch out for Competition from local integrated

media and international companies (but go visit www.yahoo.ru too ...)

Rambler.ru – yahoo of Russia

Page 35: 1 SEB Eastern European Equity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

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Thank you!

Sven Kunsing

Head of Eastern European Investment Management

[email protected]

+372 6656 645