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The seasonal carbon and water balances of the Cerrado environment of

Brazil: Past, present, and future influences of land cover and land use

Arielle Elias Arantes a,⇑, Laerte G. Ferreira a, Michael T. Coe b

a Federal University of Goiás, Image Processing and GIS Lab, Campus Samambaia, 74001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazilb The Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Rd, Falmouth, MA 02540, United States

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:

Received 9 July 2015Received in revised form 3 February 2016Accepted 9 February 2016

Keywords:

CerradoCarbonEvapotranspirationPhenologyLand cover and land use

a b s t r a c t

The Brazilian savanna (known as Cerrado) is an upland biome made up of various vegetation types fromherbaceous to arboreal. In this paper, MODIS remote sensing vegetation greenness from the EnhancedVegetation Index (EVI) and evapotranspiration (ET) data for the 2000–2012 period were analyzed tounderstand the differences in the net primary productivity (NPP-proxy), carbon, and the evaporative fluxof the major Cerrado natural and anthropic landscapes. The understanding of the carbon and evaporativefluxes of the main natural andanthropic vegetation types is of fundamental importance in studies regard-ing the impacts of land cover and land use changes in the regional and global climate. The seasonaldynamics of EVI and ET of the main natural and anthropic vegetation types of the Cerrado biome wereanalyzed using a total of 35 satellite-based samples distributed over representative Cerrado landscapes.Carbon and water fluxes were estimated for different scenarios, such as, a hypothetical unconvertedCerrado, 2002 and 2050 scenarios based on values derived from literature and on the PROBIO land coverand land use map for the Cerrado. The total growing season biomass for 2002 in the Cerrado region wasestimated to be 28 gigatons of carbon and the evapotranspiration was 1336 gigatons of water. The meanestimated growing seasonevapotranspiration and biomass for 2002 was 576 Gt of waterand 12 Gt of car-bon for pasture and croplands compared to 760 Gt of water and 15 Gt of carbon for the Cerrado natural

vegetation. In a modeled future scenario for the year 2050, the ET flux from natural Cerrado vegetationwas 394 Gt less than in 2002 and 991 Gt less than in an unconverted scenario, with only natural vegeta-tion, while the carbon was 8 Gt less than in 2002 and 21 Gt less than in this hypothetical pre-conversionCerrado. On the other hand, the sum of the pasture and cropland ET flux increased by 405 Gt in 2050 rel-ative to 2002 and the carbon by 11 Gt of carbon. Given the increasing global demand for agriculturalproducts and the insufficient protected areas in the Cerrado (with a significant area of remaining nativevegetation in privately owned lands that may be legally deforested), our analyses suggest that potentialfuture changes to the water and carbon balances are likely to be highly significant in the severely threat-ened Cerrado biome. On the other hand, our results also suggest that the recovery of degraded pasturescan have a positive impact on climate, due to the higher rates of carbon sequestration and water transferto the atmosphere. 2016 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier

B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

The Brazilian savanna (known as Cerrado in Brazil) is an uplandbiome located in the central part of Brazil, covering about 25% of the country’s land area (i.e. 2 million km2) (Eiten, 1972). Therapid deforestation occurring in the Cerrado, with a meandeforestation rate of 1.6% (Silva et al., 2009; Rocha et al., 2011),

is potentially important for the energy, water, and carbon cycles,as the replacement of natural vegetation by pastures and croplandaffects the land surface - atmosphere feedbacks. The soils of theCerrado are mainly deep with low fertility, high iron andaluminum content, and excellent internal drainage (Buol, 2009).The average annual temperature varies from 20–26 C, and totalrainfall and evapotranspiration are 1481 mm and 895 mm, respec-tively (Marcuzzo et al., 2012; Eiten, 1972). The climate has twodefined seasons, a wet season from October to April and a dryseason from May to September (Camargo, 1963). The vegetationof the Cerrado has many different structural forms (height, density,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.02.008

0924-2716/ 2016 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 62 92143443.E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A.E. Arantes), [email protected]

(L.G. Ferreira), [email protected] (M.T. Coe).

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 117 (2016) 66–78

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.02.008mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.02.008http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09242716http://www.elsevier.com/locate/isprsjprshttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/isprsjprshttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09242716http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.02.008mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.02.008http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.02.008&domain=pdf

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and layers), varying from herbaceous, grassy, and shrubby vegeta-tion to woodland (Goodland, 1971). The Cerrado trees and shrubsgenerally have thick bark, twisted branches and trunks, glabrousor soft and hairy leaves, relatively low leaf density, and crownwider for its height than forest trees (Eiten, 1972). The groundlayer is more or less xeromorphic with grasses and sedges withhard siliceous leaves. Most of the Cerrado species are perennial

with some annual species in the northeastern region.The combination of different structural forms determines thevarious Cerrado vegetation types, and these can be divided intofive main types: campo limpo (Cerrado grassland), campo sujo(Cerrado shrubland), campo Cerrado (low tree and shrub Cer-rado), Cerrado (Cerrado stricto sensu) and Cerradao (Cerradowoodland). The most abundant vegetation type is the Cerradostricto sensu (22%), and the least abundant are the Cerradowoodland (5%) and Cerrado grassland (4%) (Sano et al., 2010).The forested vegetation types in the Cerrado biome differ fromthe Cerrado woodland, in their structural components, such ashigher height and larger canopy size, and compositional compo-nents, like the occurrence of different tree species (Eiten, 1972).These forests, when located away from river courses, are calledseasonal forests (floresta estacional). The forested vegetationtypes are also classified based on the fraction of leaf loss duringthe dry season, as evergreen (less than 20%), semi-deciduous(20 to 50% leaf loss), or deciduous (more than 50%) (Pereiraet al., 2011). About 50% of the natural Cerrado vegetation hasbeen converted to pasture and agriculture, and less than 3%are within protected areas (Couto et al., 2010; Garcia et al.,2011).

The occupation of the Cerrado biome started in the 18th cen-tury with cattle ranching activities over natural pastures andsmall subsistence farming (Silva et al., 2013). In the 70s, theBrazilian government conducted studies that showed the agricul-tural potential of the Cerrado and the required technical imple-mentations in order to increase its productivity (Silva et al.,2013). Since the 1970s, the herbaceous and woody vegetation,

formerly used as natural pastures and sources of food for cattle,have been replaced by exotic cultivated pastures of African originin the genre Brachiaria (more than 80% of the cultivated pasturesin the central part of Brazil), Panicum, and Andropogon (Brossardand Barcellos, 2005). Cultivated pastures occupied 29% of the Cer-rado biome in 2002, with 40% of that concentrated in the south-ern portion of the biome, particularly in eastern Mato Grosso doSul and western Goiás (Sano et al., 2000; Sano et al., 2010). TheCerrado biome supports 40% of the Brazilian cattle herd, over50 million hectares of cultivated pastures, and contributes toabout 55% of the national meat production (Vendrame et al.,2010; Brossard and Barcellos, 2005).

The transformation of the naturally poor and acid soils of theCerrado biome into productive soils in the 1970s by the introduc-

tion of correctives and fertilizers, and improved infrastructure, alsoallowed for a boom in the expansion of soy, corn, and bean crops(Cunha et al., 1994; Jepson, 2005; Klink and Machado, 2005). Suchtechnological advances and increased land profitability wereinstrumental for transforming the Cerrado into the most promi-nent agricultural frontier of the country (Rezende, 2002). Together,the commodity crops occupy about 10% of the total Cerrado area.With the global demand for food rapidly increasing, future expan-sion of crops into degraded pastures and intensification of cattleranching (through the use of partial confinement and fodder) arelikely to occur (Mueller, 2003; Klink and Machado, 2005;Brandão et al., 2006)

Compared to forests, pasturelands and croplands have lowerabove-ground and below-ground biomass, higher albedo,

decreased evapotranspiration, lower canopy interception of rain-fall and less atmospheric turbulence (Aragão et al. 2007;

D’Almeida 2007; Bonan, 2008; Coe et al., 2009, 2013; Loarieet al., 2011; Lathuilliére et al., 2012; Spracklen et al., 2012). In fact,during the 1850–2000 period, land use change accounted for therelease of about 156 PgC globally (60% from the tropics)(Houghton, 2003), while the net carbon flux fromland use and landcover change alone accounted for approximately 13% of the carbonemissions from 1990 to 2010 (Houghton, 2012). This substantial

increase in atmospheric carbon hinders the absorption of carbonby the oceans, changing the carbon-cycle feedbacks, which acceler-ates climate change.

Thus, land use transitions from natural vegetation to pasturesand crops decrease carbon stocks, increase greenhouse gas emis-sions (Soares-Filho et al., 2014), reduce evapotranspiration (Costaand Pires 2009; Lathuilliere et al. 2012), and increase sensibleheat flux (Ferreira et al., 2011; Giambelluca et al., 2009), all of which have significant environmental implications. Bustamanteet al. (2012) showed that GHG emissions from cattle ranchingin the Cerrado biome (229–231 Mt CO2 eq) accounted forapproximately 20–30% of all GHG emissions from cattle ranchingin Brazil (813–1,090 Mt CO2 eq). The decrease in ET associatedwith land use change leads to a soil moisture increase, withexcess water being exported via increased runoff and river dis-charge (Costa et al. 2003; Coe et al. 2011; Hayhoe et al. 2011),which can, ultimately, reduce regional rainfall (Costa and Pires2009).

Regarding the Cerrado landscapes, some studies have investi-gated the impact of land use change on soil carbon stocks(Batte-Bayer et al., 2010; Silva et al., 2004; Pinto et al.; 2014;Braz et al.,2013; Pimentel et al., 2012), as well as on GHG emis-sions from land use and land cover changes (Fearnside et al.,2009; Bustamante et al., 2012; Cerri et al., 2009), and on the car-bon and water fluxes of the different Cerrado vegetation types(Rocha et al.; 2002; Paiva and Faria, 2007; Miranda et al., 1997;Santos et al., 2003). A literature review by Miranda et al. (2014)showed that the biomass of the Cerrado vegetation types variesfrom a mean value of 24 Mg ha1 for the Cerrado grassland,

58Mgha1 for the Cerrado shrubland, and 98 Mg ha

1 for theCerrado forestlands (Miranda et al., 2014). Rocha et al. (2009)estimated the water and heat fluxes for a gradient of natural veg-etation from the Amazon forest to the Cerrado savanna biomes,indicating evapotranspiration rates during the dry season of 2.5 mm d1 in the forest and 1.0 mm d1 in the Cerrado. UsingMODIS products (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiome-ter), Loarie et al. (2011) found that the conversion of native Cer-rado to pasture or non-sugar cane crops resulted, on average, in a0.6 mm d1 decrease in evapotranspiration, showing that the Cer-rado natural vegetation plays a key role in maintaining the waterbalance.

Our study estimates both ET and carbon fluxes based on a regio-nal scale, taking into consideration both the different Cerrado veg-

etation types, as well as the changes in ET and carbon fluxes fromthe conversion of these natural vegetation types to anthropic veg-etation types (pastures and crops). Differently from previous stud-ies, focused on small, restricted areas, this is the first study thatestimates carbon and water fluxes for the entire Cerrado biome,based on freely available and ready to use satellite products andon simple and replicable approaches. Specifically, we used monthlyMODIS data on vegetation greenness from the Enhanced Vegeta-tion Index (EVI) and evapotranspiration (ET) from 2000 to 2012,to quantify the differences in the net primary productivity (NPP-proxy) and water vapor flux (ET) of the major Cerrado naturaland anthropic landscapes. Additionally, we investigated the histor-ical changes to biomass and water vapor flux that have resultedfrom deforestation in the Cerrado and the potential changes that

may occur in the future if deforestation continues at its currentrates.

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2. Methods and Data Analysis

The seasonal dynamics of EVI and ET of the main natural andanthropic vegetation types of the Cerrado biome were analyzedusing a total of 35 satellite-based reference samples, with eachsample distributed over representative Cerrado landscapes

(Fig. 1). Each reference sample came from a large area of the samevegetation type on the ground (>1 km2), in order to avoid mixtureof different vegetation types as detected by the MODIS sensor. The35 samples, comprising five samples from each of the seven dom-inant land-cover classes in the biome, were selected based onvisual analysis of Landsat scenes and field information: a) naturalCerrado classes (i.e. Cerrado grassland, Cerrado shrubland, Cerradostricto sensu, and Cerrado woodland vegetation types), b) decidu-ous forest, c) cultivated pastures and d) crops (soy).

The Cerrado grassland, Cerrado shrubland, and Cerrado strictosensu samples were chosen in national parks, based on sites froma previous study by Ferreira and Huete (2004). The Cerrado wood-land is rare because it occurs in highly fertile soils, which havebeen intensively deforested for agricultural activities. These sam-

ples were chosen from Solórzano et al. (2012), who identified someremaining Cerrado woodland fragments (Fig. 1). For the seasonally

deciduous forests, distributed in the central part of Brazil, mainlyover limestone terrains (Felfili et al., 2007), samples were chosenfrom Pereira et al. (2011).

The soy samples were chosen by temporal analysis of Landsat 5– TM images from 2000 to 2012, in the municipalities of Rio Verdeand Jataí (Goiás State), known for their large-scale soy production

(Fig. 1). The cultivated pasture samples were based on field datafrom the Rio Vermelho watershed (three samples of Brachiariabrizantha) and from areas of cattle ranching in the municipalityof Nova Crixás (two samples of Brachiaria decumbens) (Goiás State)(Fig. 1).

The MOD13Q1 EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) images1 fromApril 2000 to December 2012 were processed and organized for

the entire Cerrado biome, in order to analyze the seasonal photosyn-

thetic responses. The MOD13Q1 vegetation index product is a 16-

day composite with 250 m spatial resolution, where each pixel,

selected based on the MVC-CV approach (Maximum Value Compos-

ite – Constrained View), corresponds to the best possible observa-

tion, i.e. with minimum residual cloud and aerosol contamination

Fig. 1. Distribution of the 35 satellite-based samples over the major Cerrado vegetation types (the accompanying photographs depict the typical appearance of eachvegetation type during the growing season).

1 Source of MOD13Q1 images: http://reverb.echo.nasa.gov/reverb/.

68 A.E. Arantes et al. / ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 117 (2016) 66–78

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and closer to nadir viewing geometry (Huete et al., 2002; Solano

et al., 2010).

The monthly mean 1-km resolution MOD16A2 evapotranspira-tion (ET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) products2 wereprocessed and organized for the period from 2000 to 2012 to analyze

the energy and water balance. The land surface evapotranspiration

product is described by Mu et al. (2011) and is based on the Penman

Monteith equation. Its calculation uses the following input data:

land cover from MODIS Collection 4 (MOD12Q1), albedo

(MOD43C1), leaf area index (MOD15A2), enhanced vegetation index

(MOD13Q1) and daily meteorological data from the NASA Global

Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO).

Mu et al. (2011) reported good agreement of the annual globalET estimated by the MOD16 product compared to literature values(62.8 103 km3 MOD16 and 65.5 103 km3 fromliterature). How-ever, they found that the satellite-based ET values showed discrep-ancies of about 24% when compared to the ET measured in theeddy flux towers. At two sites in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes,Ruhoff et al. (2011) found a correlation of 0.50 and a RMSE of 0.97 mmday1 between the ET data derived from eddy flux towersand the mean daily MODIS ET (8-day composite). At longer timeintervals (i.e. monthly ET composites), the correlation was higher(r = 0.7) and the RMSE was 18% lower.

The TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, Kummerowet al., 1998)3 precipitation data (in millimeters), at 25 km spatialresolution, was also processed and organized for the 2000 to 2012

period. The monthly average precipitation data was used to charac-

terize the Cerrado precipitation regime, and compare the seasonality

of rainfall to EVI and ET responses.

The MOD13Q1 EVI images were used to determine the start(SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing seasons and to derive sec-ondary phenological parameters, such as the left and right deriva-tive (green-up and senescence rates, respectively) and smallintegral (EVI-integral used as NPP-proxy) (Fig. 2). The MODIS EVI,with optimized vegetation signal in regions with high biomassand low sensitivity to background and atmospheric contamina-tions, is a robust tool for retrieving information such as vegetationtype, net primary productivity, leaf area index, foliage cover, evap-otranspiration, and phenology (Zhang et al., 2003; Tan et al., 2008;Huete and Saleska, 2010; Mu et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2012; Rosaand Sano, 2013). Indeed, several studies have used MODIS EVItime-series to estimate NPP and GPP (e.g. Rosa and Sano, 2013;Potter et al., 2009; Bandaru et al.,2013; Wu et al., 2014), othersused EVI in models to estimate carbon in above-ground biomass(e.g. Baccini et al., 2012; Li et al., 2015), while a few made use of EVI to characterize the phenology of the vegetation (e.g. Gowardet al., 1985; Reed et al., 1994; Zhang et al., 2014; Wagle et al.,2015).

Specifically for the Cerrado biome, field spectral measurements

tend to be well correlated to ground biophysical parameters (e.g.green cover and LAI) and to satellite-based vegetation indices, cor-roborating the potential of satellite vegetation index data to dis-criminate among land cover types and to assess, in a more costeffective manner, the seasonality and phenology of the main Cer-rado vegetation types (e.g. Ferreira et al., 2003; Ratana andHuete, 2005). Residual atmospheric noise in the EVI images weresmoothed using the Savitzky-Golay filter implemented in theTIMESAT software ( Jönsson and Eklundh, 2002; Jönsson andEklundh, 2004). TIMESAT was also used to identify the timing of phenological phases from the smoothed data for all samples (35in total) for the 13 years of analysis. In addition, the 13-year meanfor the start, end, and length of the growing seasons, on a per-pixel

Fig. 2. Flowchart depicting the main steps and approaches utilized for the assessment of carbon and water fluxes in the Brazilian Cerrado.

Table 1

Average (all samples) start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS) and length for the 12

growing seasons considered in this study.

Seasons SOS EOS Length

1 29-Sep-00 10-Jun-01 8 months 11 days2 30-Sep-01 25-May-02 7 months 25 days3 30-Sep-02 10-Jun-03 8 months 10 days4 16-Oct-03 9-Jun-04 7 months 23 days5 15-Oct-04 10-Jun-05 7 months 25 days6 30-Sep-05 25-May-06 7 months 25 days7 14-Sep-06 10-Jun-07 8 months 25 days8 16-Oct-07 9-Jun-08 7 months 26 days9 15-Oct-08 10-Jun-09 7 months 25 days

10 14-Sep-09 10-Jun-10 8 months 26 days11 16-Oct-10 10-Jun-11 7 months 25 days12 30-Sep-11 25-Jun-12 8 months 25 days

2 Source of MOD16 ET and PET images: http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/project/mod16. 3 Source of TRMM precipitation images: http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/.


http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/project/mod16http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/project/mod16http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/project/mod16http://-/?-http://-/?-

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basis, were estimated for the entire Cerrado biome, in order tounderstand the differences in its phenological behavior due tothe latitudinal variability.

As proposed by Jönsson and Eklundh (2002), the start of thegrowing season (SOS) and end of the growing season (EOS) weredefined as the calendar dates in each year of the EVI time-series,when the EVI value crossed specific thresholds. In the case of SOS, it is the first calendar day following the minimum seasonalvalue for that year, when the EVI has increased to greater than20% of the minimum value. For EOS, it is defined as the first calen-dar day following that year’s EVI peak, when EVI has decreased toless than 80% of the peak value. Thus, SOS and EOS are the tempo-ral bounds of the growing season. The left and right derivativeswere calculated as the total increase of the curve from the SOS to

the maximum value and the total decrease from the maximumvalue to the EOS, respectively.

The accumulated EVI from the SOS to the EOS, also known asthe small integral in time-domain metrics, was used as a proxyof net primary productivity (NPP-proxy) (Fig. 2). Goward et al.(1985) showed that NPP, which corresponds to the carbon storedby plants from photosynthesis minus what is used for respiration,is well represented by vegetation indices, because the photosyn-thetic capacity of each vegetation type, measured by the vegetationindices, is closely related to the ability of the plant to use water,light, and nutrients. Indeed, satellite based vegetation indices havebeen widely used as proxies for NPP (Running et al., 1988; Ruimyet al., 1994; Potter et al., 2007; Rosa and Sano, 2013).

In this study we used the ratio of the MODIS-derived ET and PET

products as a dimensionless indicator of plant water use (referredhere as ETn). ETn describes that fraction of the total potential

atmospheric demand (PET) that was provided by the plants atany location and time (Fig. 2). Thus, any differences in the ETn ratioin space are more a function of the plant water availability and usedifferences (e.g. total amount of soil moisture and vegetation) thanthe regional differences in net radiation (PET).

The NPP-proxy and ETn were averaged for the 12 growing sea-sons for each of the 35 samples. In addition to the sample-basedanalyses, we estimated the contribution of each land cover typeto the Cerrado-wide carbon and water budgets (Fig. 2). The meansample-based NPP-proxy and ETn over the 12 seasons (2000–2012) were multiplied by the area of each land cover type through-out the Cerrado, determined from the 2002 PROBIO land cover map(Conservation and Sustainable Use of Brazilian Biological DiversityProject) (Sano et al., 2010). From this, we assessed the relative state

of the carbon and water balances, as a function of the major landcover types in the entire Cerrado. We also estimated the total bio-mass and evaporative flux (in Gt of C and H2O) from each landcover type throughout the Cerrado.

Finally, in order to better understand the potential impact of historical and future deforestation on the carbon and water fluxesof the Cerrado, two hypothetical land use scenarios were consid-ered: a scenario with no pasture and cropland, i.e. only natural veg-etation throughout the Cerrado (hypothetical unconverted Cerrado),and a scenario based on the Ferreira et al. (2012) modeled Cerradodeforestation for the year 2050 ( 2050). For the hypothetical uncon-verted Cerrado scenario, we replaced the pasture and croplandareas with natural vegetation based on the respective proportionof each Cerrado land-cover type in 2002. For the 2050 scenario,

we assigned the modeled converted area in 2050 to be either pas-ture or crop according to the proximity to the respective (2002)

Fig. 3. (a) Start of the growing season (SOS), (b) end of the growing season (EOS), and (c) length of the growing season for the entire Cerrado biome.


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Fig. 4. Average EVI smoothed temporal profiles (and respective standard deviations) for the major Cerrado land cover classes (time interval encompasses 12 growing seasons,from 2000 to 2012).


http://-/?-

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PROBIO land-use classes. To these hypothetical land-cover distri-butions, we applied the respective carbon (kg of above-ground bio-mass) from Baccini et al. (2012) pan-tropical biomass map andmedian ET values from MOD16A2 (for all 12 growing seasons).

The main steps of this study, concerning data organization, pro-cessing and analysis are depicted in Fig. 2.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Phenological dates

A total of 12 growing seasons were identified in the time series,with the respective lengths comprising the time interval betweenthe SOS and EOS (Table 1). For example, for the first year of obser-vations the growing season was defined to begin (SOS) on 29September and end (EOS) on 10 June, for a total growing seasonlength of 8 months and 11 days. All 12 growing seasons had similarSOS (September to October) and EOS (May to June) dates, withgrowing season lengths varying from 7 months and 25 days to8 months and 26 days.

A marked spatial variability in mean SOS, EOS, and length of the

growing season is observed in the Cerrado biome (Fig. 3). While, formost of the Cerrado area, the SOS occurs around September–Octo-ber and October–November, an earlier SOS (July and August) isobserved in its southern part (south of 20S) and in its extreme

northern and western portions (as earlier as April and May). Thelength of the growing season, in spite of this great variation, lasted,in general, from seven to nine months. In the extreme western por-tion of the Cerrado, the length of the growing season was muchshorter, in part a result of errors in the detection of the SOS andEOS, due to poor quality pixels (related to residual cloud and aero-sol contamination) that hinder the detection of the SOS and EOS.

The end of the season showed little variation, with most of the Cer-rado having the end of the growing season in June-July and July–August.

3.2. EVI and ETn seasonal profiles

The seasonal EVI profiles of all vegetation types showed onepeak per growing season (Fig. 4), with the exception of the soy,which showed two EVI peaks. In years of favorable precipitation,a secondary crop (e.g. corn) is planted late in the wet season afterthe soy harvest. The soy samples had the highest EVI amplitude(0.2 to 0.9), followed by the deciduous forest (0.2 to 0.7), pasture(0.2 to 0.55), and the Cerrado vegetation types (0.2 to 0.5)(Fig. 4). These ranges are in agreement with a study done by

Galford et al. (2008) that showed higher EVI values for the Cerradowoodland (a mean of 0.6), compared to pastures (mean of 0.5) andEVI values exceeding 0.8 for cropland.

As expected, the average seasonal behavior of the EVI and ETnof the dominant Cerrado land-cover classes were consistent withthe precipitation dynamics of the Cerrado biome (Fig. 5), with bothEVI and ETn mean values peaking at the maximum of the wet sea-son (January-March), and decreasing to values of about ½ their wetseason peak by late in the dry season (August–September).

The green-up for all Cerrado vegetation types started in mid-September to the end of October, at the onset of the rainy season,with EVI reaching peak values from December through January.ETn lagged EVI by about one month, peaking from January throughMarch (Fig. 6a, b). The green-up was particularly abrupt for the soy

and deciduous forest samples, due to human management andplant physiology that respond rapidly to precipitation. The sea-sonal behavior of natural and anthropic vegetation types differedin their response to senescence. All Cerrado vegetation typesshowed a gradual senescence, starting as early as March or April.The gradual senescence indicated by the low slope of the rightderivative of EVI can be related to the different responses of theCerrado species to water stress, some maintaining transpirationin the beginning of the dry season due to access to deep soil water

Fig. 5. Distribution of the mean monthly precipitation and normalized ET and EVIprofiles for the entire Cerrado biome.

Fig. 6. Sample-based mean 16-day EVI (a) and mean monthly normalized ET (b) seasonal profiles for the major Cerrado land-cover classes.


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(Garcia-Monteil et al., 2008), others reducing transpiration, and afew transpiring during night (Fig. 6a,b).

The lowest and highest EVI and ETn values for the Cerrado veg-etation types followed the vegetation gradient from predominantground cover to tree cover (Fig. 6). In the wet season, lowest EVIand ETn values were found over the Cerrado grassland and Cerradoshrubland (with predominance of grassy and herbaceous species),

followed by the Cerrado stricto sensu

(with scattered low trees andshrubs) and higher EVI and ETn estimations associated with thehigher tree density Cerrado woodland.

The Cerrado grassland consists of a mix of species of naturalgrass with no tall woody plants, while the Cerrado shrubland iscomposed mainly of herbaceous vegetation and shrubs (with fewlow trees that have more ground cover biomass). The EVI (0.15–0.20 to 0.35–0.40) and ETn (0.20 to 0.40) of these vegetation typeshad similar responses and the least variation from the dry to thewet season (Fig. 6). From May to September, in the peak of thedry season, most herbaceous vegetation types greatly reduce pho-tosynthesis and transpiration. For the herbaceous species, withaverage root depth of only 10 to 15 cm, the leaves die out, onlyre-sprouting with the start of rainfall, when the air and soilbecomes moist again.

As the percentage of tree cover increases, there is a decrease inwater stress by the more woody vegetation types. The Cerradostricto sensu is a woody type of vegetation with total woody plantcover of about 10–30%, with closed or semi-opened low arborealforms (< 7 m) scattered with shrubs (Goodland, 1971). The season-ality response of this vegetation was similar to the herbaceous veg-etation types (grassland and shrubland), where the EVI and ETnstart their ascending curves in October, with the first rainfall,reaching its maximum value around January. Nevertheless, theEVI and ETn responses, compared to those from the herbaceousforms, were systematically higher year-around. In December, forexample, the ETn was 20% higher than the ETn of the herbaceousvegetation types. Similar to the herbaceous vegetation, the Cerradostricto sensu had a gradual senescence, starting in March and reach-

ing its lowest ETn and EVI values around June.The Cerrado woodland, with medium-tall arboreal forms

(height > 9 m) and about 30–60% tree cover (Goodland, 1971),showed, relative to the other vegetation types, consistently higherEVI and ETn values and very gradual senescence and green-uprates (Fig. 6). The trees of this physiognomy have a greater propor-tion of leaves functioning in the dry season due to their roots thatreach up to 8 m of depth, enabling them to access deep soil water(Palhares et al., 2010; Garcia-Montiel et al., 2008; Franco et al.,2005). In the beginning of the dry season, the EVI and ETnresponses were slightly reduced, because of decreased soil wateravailability. The reduction of the normalized ET in August can beattributed to the long period without rainfall (more than 3 months)(Fig. 6).

The deciduous forest was marked by a highly seasonal behavior,with EVI varying from 0.2 and ETn 0.2 in the dry season to EVI 0.5and ETn 0.9 in the wet season. Due to their preferred locations inregions of fractured limestone (Felfili et al., 2007; Pereira et al.,2011), the trees in deciduous forests have access to water fromthe first rains, but the soils quickly become dry at the end of therainy season. Thus, green-up and senescence rates, as indicatedby the EVI and ETn responses, are abrupt due to the fast drainageof water. During the wet season, the canopy cover is 50% to 70%(Nascimento et al., 2007) and EVI and ETn values were about 1.4times higher than those of the Cerrado woodland.

The soy and cultivated pasture seasonal responses are not onlya result of plant physiognomy, but also human management. Inparticular, the anthropic land covers differ from the natural vege-

tation types in their faster senescence, which can be attributed tothe lack of biodiversity associated with monocultures and rapid

harvest after maturity (Fig. 6). The green-up of the soy was distinctfrom the other vegetation types, starting in November after seed-ing, which generally occurs in October.

The cultivated pastures, although closely following the trends of the herbaceous vegetation types (Cerrado grassland and Cerradoshrubland), showed higher rates of photosynthesis and evapotran-spiration and higher productivity during the wet season (Fig. 6).

Their higher productivity results from good management practices,such as fertilization and rotational grazing, which increases its pro-ductivity relative to native grasses (Lascano, 1991). The higherevapotranspiration rate is, in part, a consequence of the deep rootsystemof the Brachiaria brizantha pasture, whichallows it to accesswater at greater depths, contributing to higher ET compared tonative grasses (Santos et al., 2004).

The faster green-up rate of pastures is consistent with the studyof Meirelles et al. (2011) that showed that the Brachiaria brizanthapastures quickly respond to the onset of the rainy season. It isinteresting to observe that the senescence of pastures, althoughmore abrupt, compared to the natural vegetation, tends to occurlater in May, which suggests, in agreement with the study of Guenni et al. (2002), their potential for greater resistance todrought (Fig. 6). Nevertheless, the fast decrease in the EVI andETn values, once senescence starts, can be attributed to the strat-egy of herbs and grasses to react to water stress by rapidly closingthe stomata and drying out their above-ground biomass (Rachid,1947; Sack and Frole, 2006).

3.3. Phenological Parameters

The soy and deciduous forest are highly seasonal with consis-tently the highest green-up (left derivative) and senescence (rightderivative) rates, followed by pastures and the Cerrado vegetationtypes (Fig. 7a and b). The mean green-up rate of soy (0.163) wasabout three times greater than for cultivated pastures (0.053)and natural Cerrado vegetation (0.040), and two times greater thanthe deciduous forest (0.080). The senescence of soy varied from

year to year, with some years having up to two times lower senes-cence rate than the previous year (Fig. 7b). The high variability is adirect result of the double-cropping system, in which, in someyears, two crops are not planted and therefore the calculatedsenescence rate is very low (it starts early). In double croppingyears the rate is much higher because the corn is green late inthe season and EVI rapidly drops at harvest time (Fig. 7).

The green-up of the Cerrado vegetation types varied accordingto the gradient of tree density to ground cover with lower to highervalues for the Cerrado woodland, Cerrado stricto sensu, Cerradograssland and shrubland (Fig. 7a). This was consistent with theEVI and ETn temporal profiles, where the Cerrado grassland andshrubland had higher green-up rates. The senescence rates werevery similar, with the Cerrado woodland having the lowest senes-

cence rate and lowest temporal variation of the vegetation typesanalyzed (Fig. 7b).

The NPP-proxy (small integral of the EVI over the growing sea-son) followed the green-up patterns. The crop NPP-proxy washighest, with significant variation from year to year (accumulatedEVI 5 to 7) (Fig. 7c). The deciduous forest had the least variation(accumulated EVI 4 to 5) (Fig. 7c). Pasture was about two times lessproductive than soy and showed small interannual variations(accumulated EVI 3 to 4) (Fig. 6c). Pasture was consistently moreproductive (about 1.3 times higher) than the Cerrado vegetationtypes, except for two seasons, where the Cerrado shrubland hadhigher NPP-proxy (Fig. 7c).

Among the Cerrado vegetation types, the low NPP-proxy of theCerrado woodland confirms less and slower accumulation of bio-

mass during one growing season and higher total productivity(accumulated EVI from past and current growing seasons). This


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3.5. Scenarios

A scenario representing the Cerrado without anthropic environ-ments (hypothetical unconverted Cerrado) was developed in order toinvestigate the scale of the impact of historical deforestation on ETand above ground biomass. There was 29 Gt of carbon from theabove-ground biomass and 1357 Gt of water transpired duringthe growing season from this idealized landscape of only naturalCerrado vegetation types. Those values were 21 Gt of water and1 Gt of carbon greater than the values calculated for the mixed

landscape in 2002 (Tables 3 and 4). The lowest contributions of the ET fluxes and above-ground biomass were for the deciduousforest with 39 Gt of water and 0.7 Gt of carbon and the Cerradograssland with 102 Gt of water and 2 Gt of carbon (Tables 3 and4). The greatest contributions were for the Cerrado stricto sensuwith 593 Gt of water and 13 Gt of carbon or 44% of the total ETfluxes and 46% of the total above-ground biomass in the hypothet-ical unconverted Cerrado scenario, and shrub Cerrado with 497 Gt of water and 10 Gt of carbon or 36% of the total ET fluxes and 34% of the total biomass.

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution (per-pixel basis) of mean (12 seasons) normalized NPP-proxy (a) and normalized ETn (b) values (according to the major Cerrado land-cover andland-use classes).

Fig. 9. The relative contributions of each land use class to total NPP-proxy (a) and ETn (b).


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It is plausible that the Cerrado woodland would have occupied

most of the biome in the past 10,000 years before human settle-ments (Rizzini and Heringer, 1962; Eyre, 1963; Richards, 1969). If so, our reconstructed landscape, which is dominated by Cerradostricto sensu, probably underestimates the pre-conversion evapo-transpiration flux and carbon in biomass. If Cerrado woodlandoccupied 50% of the Cerrado biome, the ET andcarbon fluxes wouldbe 395 Gt of water and 8 Gt of carbon, about 269 Gt of water and6 Gt of carbon greater than the hypothetical unconverted Cerradoscenario.

Deforestation continues in the Cerrado at a rapid rate (Rochaet al., 2011) and it has been identified as an important contributorto Brazil’s greenhouse gas emission budget (Bustamante et al.,2012) and, through ET reductions, a potential contributor toaltered rainfall and river discharge regionally (Costa and Pires,

2009; Coe et al., 2009, 2011, 2013). Based on a modeled deforesta-tion scenario for 2050 (Ferreira et al., 2012), according to which

pasture and cropland areas occupy 54% and 13% (total 67%) of the Cerrado biome, the pasture and cropland growing season ETwould be 981 Gt of water and the biomass would be 23 Gt of car-bon. This is equivalent to 73% of the total ET flux from the Cerradoand 75% of the total carbon biomass in this scenario. The nativeCerrado vegetation types in this scenario occupy 26% of the biomearea, and contribute 366 Gt of water and 8 Gt of carbon or 27% and

25% of the total ET and biomass (Tables 3 and 4).In the 2050 scenario the biome total ET flux increased by 10 Gtand biomass by 3 Gt of carbon compared to the 2002 estimate(Table 3 and 4). The higher contribution of pasture and croplandto ET fluxes and carbon in the 2050 scenario slightly increasedthe total ET fluxes and carbon to 1346 Gt of water and 31 Gt of car-bon (compared to 1336 Gt of water and 28 Gt of carbon in 2002),which can be attributed to the higher ET and carbon median valuesof pastures compared to the natural vegetation (for which thegreatest contribution was from the Cerrado stricto sensu). The ETflux from natural Cerrado vegetation was 394 Gt less than in2002 and 991 Gt less than in the hypothetical unconverted Cerradoscenario, while the carbon was 8 Gt less than in 2002 and 21 Gtless than in the hypothetical unconverted Cerrado scenario. Thesum of the pasture and cropland ET flux increased by 405 Gt rela-tive to 2002 and the carbon by 11 Gt of carbon. This suggests that if deforestation continues at or near current rates it will likely resultin further significant alteration of the carbon and water balancewith potentially negative implications for the climate system andecosystem services (Oliveira et al., 2013; Stickler et al., 2013; Coeet al., 2013).

4. Conclusion

The MODIS EVI and normalized ET temporal profiles wereinstrumental for understanding the seasonality of the Cerradobiome and the diverse photosynthetic functioning of natural and

anthropic landscapes.The EVI analysis identified one strong growing season per year

for all Cerrado vegetation types, with the exception of soy associ-ated with a secondary crop. All natural Cerrado vegetation typeshad earlier and more gradual senescence when compared toanthropic pasture and soy/corn vegetation. The soy and deciduousforest were highly seasonal with consistently the highest green-uprate, senescence rate, and net primary productivity, followed bypastures and the Cerrado vegetation types.

Using as reference a set of 35 samples, a regional analysis con-sidering the area occupied by each vegetation type showed thatanthropic landscapes had 22% less ET and 52% less NPP-proxy thannatural landscapes. Our calculations of the total water and carbonmass suggest that pasture and cropland together contributed 12 Gt

of carbon to the above-ground biomass pool and a 576 Gt of ET fluxduring the growing season. Native Cerrado vegetation types com-bined contributed 15 Gt of carbon to the above-ground biomasspool and a 760 Gt flux of water to the atmosphere.

Our analyses of the impacts of historical and potential futurechanges suggest that human alteration of the landscape affectsthe carbon and water balance. We found that deforestation up tothe year 2002 has contributed to a decline in water vapor flux tothe atmosphere from the Cerrado biome of 21 Gt (from 1357 Gtprior to deforestation) and above-ground biomass of 1 Gt (from29 Gt prior to deforestation). Analysis of the impacts of a landuse scenario for the year 2050 (based on modern deforestationrates) suggests that conditions would be reversed, i.e. a 10 Gtincrease in ET and a 2 Gt increase in aboveground biomass com-

pared to 2002. Pasture and cropland growing season ET in 2050increases by 405 Gt and carbon by 11 Gt compared to 2002. The

Table 2

ET fluxes and biomass in gigatons of water and carbon for each land cover type

according to the 2002 PROBIO land cover map.

Land cover and land use ET 2002 (Gt) Biomass 2002 (Gt)

Pasture 420 9Cropland 156 3Cerrado grassland 57 1Cerrado shrubland 278 5

Cerrado Stricto Sensu 332 7Cerrado woodland 71 2Deciduous forest 22 0.4Cerrado vegetation 760 15

Pasture + cropland 576 12

Total 1336 28

Table 3

Normalized ET fluxes in gigatons of water according to the 2002 landscapes (PROBIO),

a hypothetical unconverted Cerrado (pre-occupation) scenario (i.e. only natural

vegetation ET fluxes) and modeled conversions by 2050.

Land cover and land use Hypothetical unconverted Cerrado 2002 2050

Pasture – 420 787

Cropland – 156 194Cerrado grassland 102 57 23Cerrado shrubland 497 278 145Cerrado Stricto Sensu 593 332 151Cerrado woodland 126 71 25Deciduous forest 39 22 22Cerrado vegetation 1357 760 366

Pasture + cropland – 576 981

Total ET fluxes 1357 1336 1346

Table 4

EVI-based NPP according to the 2002 landscapes (PROBIO), a hypothetical uncon-

verted Cerrado (pre-occupation) scenario (i.e. only natural vegetation C fluxes) and

modeled conversions by 2050.

Land cover and land use Hypothetical unconverted Cerrado 2002 2050

Pasture – 9 19Cropland – 3 4Cerrado grassland 2 1 0.4Cerrado shrubland 10 5 3Cerrado Stricto Sensu 13 7 3Cerrado woodland 3 2 1Deciduous forest 0.7 0.4 0.4Cerrado vegetation 29 15 8

Pasture + cropland – 12 23

Total carbon 29 28 31


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2050 ET flux from native Cerrado vegetation types is reduced by394 Gt and carbon biomass by 8 Gt in 2050 compared to 2002.

These scenarios indicate that important changes in biomass andwater have already occurred in the Cerrado biome. Further, ouranalyses of potential future conditions shows that given the highglobal demand for agricultural products, the very low density of protected areas in the Cerrado, and the significant area of remain-

ing native vegetation on private land that may be legally defor-ested, future changes to the water and carbon balances are likelyto be significant. An increase in the contribution of pastures andcropland to total ET and NPP relative to natural Cerrado vegetationcould alter the degree of surface and atmosphere coupling, poten-tially impacting the climate. On the other hand, as our results alsosuggest, the higher net primary productivity of pastures comparedto the natural Cerrado vegetation suggests that the recovery of degraded pastures into well managed pastures can lead to signifi-cant amounts of carbon assimilation and water transfer to theatmosphere with potential positive impacts to the local and globalclimate.

Finally, and worth of mentioning, the methods and approacheson which this study relied are simple and easily replicable to otherlandscapes. To this end, most of the time-series analysis tools anddatasets (for the entire Brazil we used, are freely and easily acces-sible thorough our pasture data gateway (pastagem.org).

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Goiás State Foundation for Research Sup-port (FAPEG/2012/00766130154) and the Gordon and Betty MooreFoundation for funding this research. Laerte Guimarães Ferreiraand Arielle Arantes thank CNPq for individual research grants.Michael T. Coe acknowledges the support of the NASA TerrestrialEcology program (grant NNX12AK11G).

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