1. risk presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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What is Risk and Risk Management
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What is Risk
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Risk exists if there is something you don’t want to happen – having a chance to happen!!!
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What is Risk – Take 2
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The probability that some event will cause an undesirable outcome on the financial health of your
business and/or other business/family goals
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Components of Risk
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Probabilityof 5%
Probabilityof 15%
Probabilityof 60%
Probabilityof 15%
Probabilityof 5%
EVENT
Cause/Source
Hail
Odor lawsuit
Disabling farm accident
Surplus Production
Increasing interest rates
Potential Outcome #1
PotentialOutcome #2
PotentialOutcome#3
PotentialOutcome#4
PotentialOutcome#5
[minor nuisance] [catastrophic]
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Components of Risk – Undesirable Outcome
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Put simply, the Undesirable Outcome is what hurts!
- lower than expected production- catastrophically lower production- inability to meet cash flow- loss of income- catastrophic loss of income- loss of life- loss of buildings & other resources- loss of health- inability to get a permit or loan
DeniedX
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Components of Risk – Event (Cause/Source of Risk)
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The Event is what caused the hurt:
- weather event- injury/death of an employee- neighbors action against you- surplus production of milk- widespread poor grain production- low quality inputs- divorce or disagreement- downward slide in general economy- and countless more!!!
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Components of Risk – Probability
0
20
40
60
80
100
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Perc
ent
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B AC
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that the Risk Event will occur, e.g., 30% chance of rain
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Family Goals& Objectives
Overall Categories of Risk
Legal Risk Price Risk
Environmental Risk
5 D’s Risk- Death- Disability- Disagreement- Divorce- Disaster
Production Risk
Human Resources
Risk
Financial Risk
Relationship/Public
Relations Risk
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Risk Increases the More You Don’t Know
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All The Potential Outcomes
The Probability of Occurrence
Cost of a Undesirable Outcome
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All The Potential Outcomes
The Probability of Each Outcome Occurring
Cost of Undesirable Outcomes
Said Another Way:The more you do know and understand about
the better long term risk manager you will be.
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What is Risk Management?
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Assuring An Outcome
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Risk Management is Assuring An Outcome
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
12
Assuring anOutcome
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Five Primary Means of Risk Management
Reduce1. Reduce the probability that the event will occur2. Reduce the impact if the event does occur
Transfer 3. Transfer the cost of an undesirable outcome to someone else
Avoid4. Completely avoid potential events thus providing a zero
probability that they will occurDo Nothing
5. Let the risk happen and be ready to bear the consequences.
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Price RiskWhat Happens to the Distribution When You
Have a Floor Price at $10.51?
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12.05 13.5810.51
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What Happens to the Distribution When You Establish a Short Fence from
$12.05 to 13.58?
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12.05 13.5810.51
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Level of Production
Employee Performance
Interest Rates
Personal Injury/Death (you, employee, spouse)
Divorce
Disagreement
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Production RiskRisk: Poor weather event causing the undesirable
outcome of lower than expected yields. Risk Management???
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160 19595
Corn Yields
Transfer the cost of the
risk via crop insurance
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Production Risk:Risk: of a poor weather event causing the undesirable
outcome of lower than expected yieldsRisk Management???
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160 19595Corn Yields
Reduce the cost of the risk via spatial location, multiple variety selection, and other cropping practices.
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Financial RiskRisk: higher interest rates causing the undesirable
outcome of lower than expected income/cash flowRisk Management???
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Do Nothing
Cash Flow
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Financial RiskRisk: higher interest rates causing the undesirable
outcome of lower than expected income/cash flowRisk Management???
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Cash FlowTransfer the risk via fixed
rate loans Do Nothing
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Financial RiskRisk: higher interest rates causing the undesirable
outcome of lower than expected income/cash flowRisk Management???
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Transfer the risk via fixed
rate loans
Reduce the cost of the negative
impact via lower debt financing
Do Nothing
Cash Flow
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Human ResourcesRisk: Cost of hired labor not showing up or making a mistake causing lower production, injury, or death
Risk Management???
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Reduce the Risk via:-Regular employee meetings-Training programs-Well written position descriptions-Incentive plans
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Human ResourcesRisk: Cost of hired labor not showing up or making a mistake causing lower production, injury, or death
Risk Management???
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Transfer the risk via
disability and other
insurance
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Human ResourcesRisk: Cost of hired labor not showing up or making a mistake causing lower production, injury, or death
Risk Management???
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Avoid the risk by not hiring
any employees
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Environmental RiskRisk: manure spill causing the undesirable outcome of
fines, lawsuits, and loss of incomeRisk Management???
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Reduce the risk via:-Education-Facilities-Monitoring checks and systems-Field and manure trt. practices
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Environmental RiskRisk: manure spill causing the undesirable outcome of
fines, lawsuits, and loss of incomeRisk Management???
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Transfer the risk via liability insurance
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Disability RiskRisk: poor health causing loss of income
Risk Management???
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Incapacitated Avg. Health
Reduce incidence or impact of risk via:-Annual health exam - Quit smoking-Exercise -Disability Insurance-Co-Manager
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So, I now know What Risk Management is, but
How do I do it???
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How???• Step 1: Be aware, identify the risks you face.• Step 2: Evaluate:
– the likelihood that the risk will occur, and – how bad the hurt will be if it does occur
• Step 3: Decide on how you will address the risk – reduce, transfer, avoid, nothing, or some combination
• Step 4: Implement– What is the most frustrating words used in management?? Answer: “If I
had only ……”• Step 5: Control
– Monitor to assure that what you said you would do, you did, and that you are getting what you want out of your your risk management strategies.
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Prioritizing Which Risks to Address First
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Probability of Happening
Potential Impact
Act if cost effective
No action required
Immediate action
Action required
Small Catastrophic
High
Low
Source: Dr. Geoff Benson, North Carolina State University
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Risk Management Is An Individual Decision
No one "right" decision
The "right" decision depends on the characteristics of the
operation and individual decision-maker
Risk
Revenue
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2
3
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Risk vs. Profitability
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Risk
Revenue
1
2
3
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Your RiskManagement
TeamExtension Agent
LenderBroker
Dairy ConsultantMilk Buyer
Input Supply ManagersOther ProducersInsurance Agent
Nutrition ConsultantCrop Consultant Attorneys
Technical College Instructors