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Progress in BoP and IIP Reporting and possible future enhancements

Balance of Payments Working Group, 2 April 2012

Item 9/b

Eurostat/BoP – Daniela Comini

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A lot of progress in BoP and IIP reporting, compared to March 2012: much longer and consistent time series disseminated, QIIP on-line

Compared to March 2011, in March 2012 Current account: + 24 years IT, + 19 years FI,

+ 14 years UK, +12 years AT and NL,

+ 9 years DE and IE, + 7 years LU,

+ 5 years RO, + 3 y ES, + 2 y LV IIP: + 27 years DE, + 22 y FI, +21 y AT, + 20 y DK,

+ 7 years HU and UK, + 5 y ES, + 3 y FR and PL, + 2 years LT, + 1 year LV, MT, NL, PT

AIIP and QIIP: available on line, for all MSs

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R1) Further possible improvements in data availability: Increased geographical breakdown available to final users

Current account Geographical breakdown reported:

A1,V1, V2, I6,J6, S6, 4A, DK,GB,SE, CH,RU, CA,US,BR,CN,HK,IN,JP,C4,Z8,7Z

Geographical breakdown published (March 2012) for most EU27 MS:

A1,V1, V2, I6,J6, 4A,CH,RU,CA,US, BR, CN,HK,IN,JP

However, very limited geographical breakdown published for some Member States

DE, MT, UK: only A1

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R2) Further possible improvements in data availability Increased geographical breakdown available to final users

International Investment Position Geographical breakdown reported (Annual, main items, ECB

List 4h and 4l):

A1,V1, V2, I6,J6, S6, 4A, DK,GB,SE, CH,RU, CA,US,BR,CN,HK,IN,JP,C4,Z8,7Z

Geographical breakdown reported (Quarterly, ECB List 4g and 4k): I6, J6

Geographical breakdown published for Quarterly and Annual IIP (March 2012) : only A1

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R3) Further possible improvements in data availability: Monthly BoP and full QFA, as collected by ECB, available to all users

Monthly BoP data collected by ECB, t+6 weeks (t+42) , partner I6, J6.

Quarterly BoP full FA breakdown collected by ECB

Same datasets will be collected also by Eurostat from 2014.

Ideally, these data should be disseminated to all users (if not confidential). See the messages from EFSF and IMF.

However, for the moment, it’s possible to disseminate them only to the Commission internal users

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R4) Could we go further in responding to users’ needs? Could further geographical breakdown of some items be reported??

Just exploring the various possibilities: Bilateral data (with partner each MSs) Quarterly? for Q BoP and QIIP Annually? for Annual BoP (not reported currently) and Annual

IIP (not reported anymore from 2014) Only for few items (which?) From September 2012??

Would this be feasible/acceptable?

It would be absolutely voluntary.

Data for all users, to be published on-line = national data

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R5) DG ECFIN requirement …

• Information on changes in assets/liabilities due to

exchange rates

• Reporting of data on «Other changes in Financial Assets

and Liabilities» and in particular of Revaluations due to

exchange rates is part of 2014 ECB and Eurostat data

requests (included in Guidelines and Regulation).

• Could the reporting of revaluations be anticipated a bit

(September 2012??), or should users wait till September

2014?

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R6) Flying even higher: Quarterly External Debt (QEDS)…

Gross External debt (only Table 1 (SDDS) = IIP plus arrears plus intercompany lending) data delivered by most EU27 MSs to World Bank/IMF. See

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/EXTDECQEDS/0,,contentMDK:20721958~menuPK:4704607~pagePK:64168445~piPK:64168309~theSitePK:1805415,00.html

Quarterly External Debt (QEDS) Table 2, Table 3 and supplementary Tables 1.1-1.4 include a breakdown of total gross external debt in Foreign currency debt/Domestic currency debt, additional breakdown of sectors, debt-service payment schedule, nominal value and market value of traded debt instruments, etc etc

Few EU 27 MSs report data for GED Tab 2 (BG, DE, RO, SK), 3 (RO), 1.1-1.4 (RO).

Should EU27 BoP compilers start compiling (and reporting to Eurostat) GED, tab 2,3, 1.1-1.4??

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Overview of the proposed enhancements

A) Easy gains (based on current reporting)

R1+R2) Quarterly Current account and Annual IIP: all the reported geo-breakdown published, for all Member States (problems to overcome: annual IIP with geo break reported to ECB is intended only for the estimation of the euro-area aggregates)

R3) Monthly BoP and full QFA, as collected by ECB, disseminated, initially to the internal users in the Commission (problems: negotiations on-going with ECB; what should external users like EFSF and IMF do?), finally to all users (at least some items)

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Overview of the proposed enhancements

B) More demanding requirements (new reporting required)

R4) Bilateral data (for some items)

R5) Information on Revaluation due to exchange rates

R6) Compiling all External debt tables

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Challenges and opportunities

The strong interest of users’ in national BoP and IIP data is a challenge but also a great opportunity.

A lot of progress was already made in producing and disseminating long and consistent time series.

Now it’s the time to invest resources in making more geographical breakdown, and more detailed information available.

Are BoP compilers ready for the challenge??? Which new datasets could be delivered to all users?? When? Opinions will be collected with a survey. BoP Committee will decide.