1 philip seng president and ceo u.s. meat export federation opportunities, challenges, and future...
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Philip SengPresident and CEOU.S. Meat Export Federation
Opportunities, Challenges, Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Potential for U.S. and Future Potential for U.S.
Pork in the Global Marketplace Pork in the Global Marketplace
National Pork Industry ForumNational Pork Industry ForumMarch 5, 2005March 5, 2005
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The Expanding Pork Checkoff Dollar
Each $1 of checkoff invested with USMEF Each $1 of checkoff invested with USMEF last year returned $2.27 (ROI of 127%)last year returned $2.27 (ROI of 127%)
+ + =
Pork Checkoff
$3.7 Million
MAP
$4.1 Million3rd Parties
$0.6 Million
$8.4 Million
USMEFUSMEF
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USMEF Mission Statement
“To increase the value and profitability of the U.S. beef, pork and lamb industries by enhancing demand for their products in targeted export markets through a dynamic partnership of all stakeholders.”
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USMEF StakeholdersPrivate Companies
– Tyson– Swift & Company– Excel– Sara Lee– Hormel– Smithfield
Agribusiness– Chicago Mercantile
Exchange– Elanco Animal Health
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
Nat’l & State Organizations– National Pork Board– Cattlemen’s Beef Board– United Soybean Board– American Farm Bureau
Federation– National Corn Growers
Association– National Cattlemen’s Beef
Association– Minnesota Pork Board– American Meat Institute– National Pork Producers
Council
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USMEF-- A Global Presence --
Offices– Tokyo & Osaka– Seoul– Mexico City &
Monterrey– Hong Kong– Taipei– Moscow & St.
Petersburg– Shanghai– Singapore– London
Representatives– Beirut– Caribbean– Central America– South America (based
in Sao Paulo)– Beijing
Total Staffing– Approximately 100
Annual Budget– $25,000,000
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USMEF Pork Funding Sources
Checkoff35%USDA
54%
Other1%
Corn & Soybean
10%
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Strategic Priorities
• Market Access• Trade Support• Market Presence• Buyer Education and Loyalty• Product Image• Total Carcass Utilization
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2004 Overview
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
met
ric
ton
s
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
mil
lio
n $
PVM - MTPork - MTValue - million $
U.S. Pork and Pork Variety Meat Exports
Source: USDA
14.3% Average Annual Growth - Volume14.3% Average Annual Growth - Volume
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Where Was the Growth in 2004U.S. Pork / PVM Exports
Others3%
Taiwan5%
Canada5%Russia
7%
HK/China9%
Mexico54%Japan
17%
Source: U.S. Census Data
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U.S. has a 30% advantage compared
to Jan. ‘03
© 2005 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada
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BSE Impact on U.S. Pork Exports?
Regions That HaveReopened to Beef
2003 2004 % ch
Mexico 219,034 361,587 +65%
Canada 97,902 112,360 +15%
C/S Am * 17,210 17,585 +2%
Caribbean 7,289 13,014 +79%
EU 16,614 10,712 -36%
ASEAN 4,753 8,127 +71%
362,802 523,385 +44%
* Panama remains closed to U.S. beef
Regions that RemainClosed to Beef
2003 2004 % ch
Japan 269,230 313,574 +17%
S. Korea 28,779 27,876 -3%
Russia 7,329 27,152 +271%
HK/CH 56,625 79,701 +41%
Taiwan 25,893 38,806 +50%
Other 6,748 12,919 +91%
394,604 500,028 +27%
Source: USDA, USMEF
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Per
cen
t o
f P
rod
U.S. Pork / PVM Exports as a Percent of Production
Source: USDA, USMEF
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14-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Met
ric
To
ns
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Mil
lio
n U
S$
Volume in MT
Value in US$
Trade Balance of U.S. Pork and PVM Exports
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Chef Training-- China --
• Funded with $15,000 contribution from MN Pork Board
• December 27-29 in Hainan province – China’s “Oriental Hawaii”
• 50 chefs from throughout China participated:– Classroom presentations– Guest chef demonstrations– Hands-on applications
• Very effective in expanding the range of cuts and number of restaurants using U.S. pork
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U.S. Pork Campaign-- Japan --
• Participation by 30 national and regional retail chains (2200 outlets) in summer of ‘04
• Involved tie-in with Moranbong to include 1 of 4 different meat sauce mini-packets in U.S. Pork retail packs
• Increases reported by participating retailers generally in 10%-15% range
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U.S. Pork Caravan Supports Retail Promotions
• Supported U.S. Pork retail campaign at 8 locations on 6 weekends in May and June, 2004
• Opportunity to demonstrate recipes being promoted in-store
• Helped drive increases in total pork sales – U.S. Pork sales increases
ranging from 110% to more than 500%.
• Strong demand from retailers to continue this type of promotion support
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Mother’s Day Promotion-- Mexico --
• USMEF partnered with Gigante and Commercial Mexicana (102 total outlets) for 6 week promotion in the Spring of ‘04.
• Coupons inserted in meat packages with beef purchases worth 1 point each, pork purchases 2 points.
• With 20 points, consumers could exchange coupons for a ticket to the Mother’s Day celebration event.
• Nearly 3,000 attended the Mother’s Day event.
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Advertising Support
• 72 inserts in women’s and cooking publications
• 800,000 in-store flyers distributed over 4-week promotion
• 276 radio spots
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“New Realities”
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“New Realities”
• Protein complex is dealing with the dual shocks of BSE and AI – creating opportunity to grow percentage of eating occasions that include U.S. Pork
• Consumers are becoming increasingly concerned about food safety. Brands/traceability are becoming more important
• Competition for export markets is intensifying
• FTA’s are enhancing long-term market prospects
• Checkoffs face an uncertain future
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#1 -- The Consumer Reality
• Consumers want to know who stands behind the product, how the animal was raised & what it was fed – essentially creating “story” pork
• Increasing importance of source and process verification
• Driven by BSE, AI, E-coli, mis-labeling, etc.
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Aeon Department Store
• In response to consumer concerns about beef safety, Japanese retailer installed computers in their meat departments enabling consumers to see:– DOB and slaughter date– Where raised– Feed– Health records– BSE testing certification
• Similar info also now made available thru cell phone camera technology
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#2 – Competition is Intensifying
• Brazil has emerged as a global meat exporter– Increased from 2% of world pork trade in 1994 to 15% in
2003– Will be the #1 exporter of beef in 2004
• China– Will investment turn the world’s largest hog production
base into an export powerhouse?• Mexico and Chile also becoming exporters and
benefiting from trade agreements with Japan• Korea recently established a pork checkoff
promotion plan and has its eyes on a return to the Japanese market
• Canada and Denmark continue to push aggressive promotion programs
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Recent Efforts
• Argentina receiving FMD clearance by region – Beef access agreement with China
• Brazil has a goal to double meat production in 10 years
• Uruguay is USDA Process Certified
• Canada (Maple Leaf) will be using DNA traceability for Japan in 2005
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S. America Factor
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Global Beef Exporters by Country
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
1,0
00
MT
CW
E
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004 (f)
2005 (f)
Source: USDA
Competition is Fierce
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Global Pork Market Share
Canada
EU-25
United States
Brazil
ChinaOthers
0%10%20%
30%40%50%60%70%
80%90%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 f
Source: World Trade Atlas
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Growth in World Pork Imports- 2.436 million mt from 1993 to 2003 -
OECD *56%
Non-OECD44%
* Excluding Intra EU Trade
Source: FAO
1,074,500 mt 1,361,551 mt
#3 – Global Pork Demand is Rising
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Growth in World Pork Imports- 2.436 million mt from 1993 to 2003 -
Singapore2%
EU (15) *2%
Canada3%
Romania4%
Hong Kong8%
S. Korea6%
Others18%
Russia8%
U.S.9%
China9%
Mexico9%
Japan22%
* Excluding Intra EU Trade
OECD in RED
Growth ’93 –’03
Japan 533,655
Mexico 231,247
China 216,987
U.S. 208,190
Russia 199,290
Hong Kong 194,668
S. Korea 148,931
Romania 105,821
Canada 67,707
Singapore 56,918
EU (15) * 43,321
Others 429,316
Total 2,436,051Source: FAO
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Challenges / Opportunities
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Threats to U.S. Success• Production built to domestic market
– Our competitors have a very different perspective
• Funding sources– Checkoff uncertainty– Budget deficits will decrease future federal
agriculture funding
• Protectionist attitudes– At home and abroad
• FTA’s– China / S. America?– Asian Free Trade Area?
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Threats to U.S. Success (cont.)
• Inability to control food safety and animal health issues– Avian Influenza, FMD
• Inability to develop standardized trading principles– Sovereignty rights vs. worldwide
obligations– Non-tariff trade barriers: dumping cases,
SPS issues, etc.
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As Tariffs Fall…Other Measures Rise
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99
Av
era
ge
Ta
riff
ra
te
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Nu
mb
er
of
AD
Me
as
ure
s in
Pla
ce
Avg. Tariffs
Measures in Force
Source: Cato Institute
Average Tariffs and Antidumping Measures(nontraditional users, 1987-1999)
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Future Demand?
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Global Beef and Pork Consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
'60 '70 '80 '90 '00
mill
ion
mt
PorkBeef
Pork 287%
Beef 111%
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Global Pork Consumers
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
China
EU-25
U.S.
Japan
Russia
Brazil
Mex
ico
Korea
Philippin
esCan
ada
Other
s
1,0
00
MT
CW
E
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004 f
2005 f
Source: USDA
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China Factor
• World food demand will increase 50% over the next 20 years, paced by the growing population and greater affluence of China
1988 to 2002• In China
– calories from animal sources +120% – calories from vegetable sources - unchanged
• In the Developing World– calories from animal sources +48% – calories from vegetable sources +4%.
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Who Will Meet The Demand?
• U.S. pork exports represented– 2% of Japanese meat consumption in 2002– 13.7 million mt available
– 4% of Mexico meat consumption in 2002– 6.7 million mt available
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Who Will Meet The Demand?
96%
4%
U.S. Pork Production
World Meat* Consumption
Source: FAO, USDA* Beef, Pork, and Poultry
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Questions
For more information:USMEF – Denver303-623-6328
On the web: www.usmef.org