1 oth symposium on global change studies · table of contents 10th symposium on global change...

1 OTH SYMPOSIUM ON

GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES

10-15 JANUARY 1999 DALLAS, TEXAS

SPONSORED BY

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Front Cover. The ENSO Experiment: An interdisciplinary research effort to study the relationship between the ElNino/Southern Oscillation and human health. This exploratory research activity is designed to draw together experts fromvarious disciplines concerned with the influence of climate on human health. Research under this project builds on existingactivities and involves a wide range of international academic, government and private sector partners. The ENSO Experimentis coordinated by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs withadditional funding and support provided by the Environmental Protection Agency, National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, United States Geological Survey, Agency for InternationalDevelopment, and the National Institutes for Allergy and Infectious Disease. For more details see paper 2C.3, "The ENSOExperiment: Using Climate Forecast Information to Provide Early Warning of Public Health Threats." Base map adapted fromC. F. Ropelewski and M.S. Haipert, Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Nino/SouthernOscillation., August 1987, Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 115, pp. 1605-1626 and C. F. Ropelewski 1998, personalcommunication.

UB/TIB Hannover 89118 766 368

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

10TH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIESPAGE

SESSION 1: INTERNATIONAL ASSESSMENTS AND RESEARACH PROGRAMS (Invited Session)

1.1 THE THIRD INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) ASSESSMENT. Robert Watson,World Bank, Washington, DC

1 1.2 IMPLEMENTING CLIVAR. Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

1.3 STATUS, PROGRESS, AND OUTLOOK FOR THE UNITED STATES GLOBAL CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAM(USGCRP). Robert W. Corell, NSF, Arlington, VA

1.4 STATUS, PROGRESS, AND OUTLOOK OF NATIONAL AERONAUTICS SPACE ADMINISTRATION'S (NASA)GLOBAL CHANGE RELATED PROGRAMS. Ghassem Asrar, NASA, Washington, DC

1.5 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH. Aristides A. Patrinos, DOE, Washington, DC

1.6 STATUS, PROGRESS AND OUTLOOK FOR OF NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S(NOAA) GLOBAL CHANGE RELATED PROGRAMS. J. Michael Hall, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

1.7 EPA'S GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM- ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATECHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON THE UNITED STATES. Joel Scheraga, EPA, Washington, DC

4 1.8 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH AT THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. David A. Kirtland, USGS, Reston, VA

1.9 WE DON'T DO CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, BUT ... Thomas Nelson, ONR, Arlington, VA

POSTER SESSION P1

5 P1.1 COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO ESTUARINE ICHTHYOPLANKTON COMMUNITIES: A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN

THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND A TEMPERATE ONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. Laura Sanvicente-Anorve, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and X. Chiappa-Carrara

9 -P1.2 CONTINENTAL SHELF WATER MASSES OFF EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA-20 TO 40°S. Alberto R. Piola, Univ.de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and E. J. D. Campos, 0. 0. Moeller, Jr., M. Charo, and C. Martinez

13 P1.3 INTER-DECADAL CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS ALONG THE EXTRA-TROPICAL WESTERN COASTS OF THEAMERICAS: EVIDENCE FROM TREE RINGS OVER THE PAST FOUR CENTURIES. R. Villalba, Lamont-DohertyEarth Obsevatory, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. DArrigo, E. R. Cook, G. Wiles, and G. C. Jacoby

CANADIAN PRAIRIE GROWING SEASON PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERICCIRCULATION. Barrie R. Bonsai, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and W. D. Hogg

ESTUARINE FISH DIVERSITY- A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN PATOS LAGOON (32 S), BRAZIL, ANDYORK RIVER (37 N), USA. J .P. Vieira, INPE, Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

PAPER MOVED TO 5B.13

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS(PIRCS): PRELIMINARY RESULTS FORTHE 1988 MIDWEST DROUGHT. Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; et al.

LOCATING AND ASSESSING DATA FROM INTERDISCIPLINARY SOURCES. Karsten A. Shein, Raytheon STX,Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Ritz

CIRCULATION ANOMALIES LEADING TO PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICADURING EL NINO AND LA NINA CYCLES. Alice M. Grimm, Federal Univ. of Parana, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil; andV. R. Barros

31 P1.10 REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US: AEROSOL COOLING VS. GREENHOUSEWARMING. V. K. Saxena, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Yu

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P1.11 IMPACTS OF THE EXTREMES OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IN AMAZONIA. PART 2. CIRCULATION,CONVECTION AND SSTS. Jose A. Marengo, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and A. Grimm and P.Zaratini

P1.12 A STUDY OF HIGH RESOLUTION TRACER MAPS USING WAVELET ANALYSIS. Pablo Canziani, Universidad deBuenos Aires, Capital Federal, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. Behar

35 P1.13 THE MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL CYCLE IN SUBTROPICAL ARGENTINA AND ITS RELATION WITH TROPICALCONVECTION IN SOUTH AMERICA. Vicente Barros., Univ. of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M.Gonzalez

39 P1.14 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE 70 HPA TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. Rosa H.Compagnucci, Univ. of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. A. Salles and P. 0. Canziani

43 P1.15 UPPER-AIR WAVE TRAINS OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND WINTERTIME COLD SURGES IN TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and T.Ambrizzi, G. Kiladis, and B. Liebmann

46 P1.16 ORBITAL FORCING IN PALEOCLIMATIC MODELS. Vladimir L. Potemkin, Limnological Inst. Of RussianAcademy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia

48 P1.17 GLOBAL NEGOTIATIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE—LESSONS FROM MONTREAL AND KYOTO PROTOCOLS.Mohammed H. Dore, Brock Univ., St. Catharines, ON, Canada; and R. Guevara and J. Nogueira

P1.18 STORMS AS A FACTOR OF RURAL COMMUNITY IDENTITY- EXAMPLES FROM THE INUIT EXPERIENCE.JoAnne Zamparo, Memorial Univ. of Newfoundland, St. John's College, St. John's, NF, Canada

P1.19 GLOBAL OCEAN SURFACE HEAT BUDGET AND INTERBASIN-MASS TRANSPORT ESTIMATED FROM OCEANISOPYCNAL GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL. Shoichiro Nakamoto, Earth Science and TechnologyOrganization/JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and J. M. Oberhuber, D. Cayan, and K. Muneyama

51 P1.20 APPLICATION OF THE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS) TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING MINIMUMTEMPERATURES IN THE COFFEE GROWING AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL, llja S. Kim,Univ. Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brazil; and J. A. Marengo, M. F. Leal de Quadro, and N. L. Dias

55 P1.21 CROSS-CORRELATIONS OF THE 1 TO 2 WEEK SUBTROPICAL JETS AND THE MID-LATITUDE FORCING OVERTHE SOUTH PACIFIC DURING NOVEMBER 1986-APRIL 1987. Ken-Chung Ko, National Koahsiung NormalUniv., Kaohsiung, Taiwan

57 P1.22 EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE AND GLOBAL CHANGE EDUCATION WORKSHOPS: BUILDING IAI CAPACITY WITH ASCIENCE AND EDUCATION NETWORK. Donald R. Johnson, USRA, Columbia, MD; and J. L Vazquez, L. Calliari,M. Ruzek, and M. Kalb

61 P1.23 MORPHOLOGY OF AN EXTREME LOW OZONE EVENT OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. Pablo 0. Canziani,Univ. of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and R. H. Compagnucci, S. Bischoff, and G. C. J. Escobar

65 P1.24 ENSO IMPACTS ON CROP PRODUCTION IN THE ARGENTINA'S PAMPAS REGION. Graciela 0. Magrin, Inst.Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria, Castelar, Argentina; and M. 0. Grondona, M. I. Travasso, D. R. Boullon,G. R. Rodriguez, and C. D. Messina

P1.25 RELATIONS BETWEEN CLIMATIC VARIABILITY RELATED TO ENSO AND MAIZE PRODUCTION IN ARGENTINA.Marfa I. Travasso, INTA, Castelar, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and G. 0. Magrin and M. 0. Grondona

69 P1.26 SEDIMENTARY RECORDS OF RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THEBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MEXICO. E. Shumilin, Interdisciplinary Marine Science Center, La Paz, BajaCalifornia Sur, Mexico; and E. Nava-Sanchez, D. Sapozhnikov, S. Kalmykov, and L. Godinez-Orta

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P1.27 UNDERSTANDING USE AND PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE INFORMATION AMONG FARMERS IN THE PAMPEANREGION, ARGENTINA- A SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH. Ignacio Llovet, Universidat de Belgrano, Buenos Aires,Argentina; and E. Terreno, E. Gentile, and A. Barsky

P1.28 ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INSOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA (URUGUAY). Mario Bidegain, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo,Uruguay; and P. Krecl

73 P1.29 CLIMATIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE 1997-98 LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES ICE COVER. Raymond A. Assel,NOAA/ERL/GLERL, Ann Arbor, Ml; and J. E. Janowiak, D. C. Norton, and C. O'Connors

77 P1.30 THE EFFECT OF EL NINO ON THE TRACKS OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DavidR. Smith, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and M. J. Ledridge

81 P1.31 RELATIONS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN VENEZUELA TO TROPICAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES. MiguelAcevedo, Univ. of North Texas, Denton, TX; and K. McGregor, R. Andressen, H. Ramirez, and M. Ablan

SESSION 2A: DETECTING CLIMATE CHANGE

2A.1 TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE TEMPERATURE-SALINITY STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD OCEAN. SydneyLevitus, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

2A.2 HISTORIC INSTRUMENTAL DATA AVAILABILITY. Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

85 2A.3 A CONSERVATIVE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INDEX. Robert G. Quayle, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; andT. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey

2A.4 RECORD BREAKING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES OF 1997 AND 1998- EVIDENCE OF CLIMATIC CHANGE?.Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

89 2A.5 A COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT GLOBAL SST DATA SETS: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE MODELING ANDREANALYSIS. James W. Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. E. Trenberth

91 2A.6 TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF THE U.S. HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY NETWORK BASED ON SATELLITEDESIGNATED LAND USE/LAND COVER. Kevin P. Gallo, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC; and T. W. Owen, D. R.Easterling, and P. F. Jamason

95 2A.7 MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CANADA FOR 1895-1995 AND 1946-1995. Lucie A.Vincent, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and W. D. Hogg

99 2A.8 DETECTION OF GLOBAL WARMING USING OBSERVED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SNOW COVER AND SEA ICEAREAS. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, R. J. Stouffer, J. E.Walsh, D. A. Robinson, D. Garrett, and V. F. Zakharov

101 2A.9 GLOBAL TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS SINCE 1979. John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama,Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell

105 2A.10 A NEW ERA IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MONITORING WITH THE ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING UNIT(AMSU). Roy W. Spencer, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and W. D. Braswell and J. R. Christy

109 2A.11 GLOBAL WARMING ESTIMATION FROM MSU. C. Prabhakara, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. lacovazzi, Jr.

113 2A.12 SENSITIVITY OF TROPOSPHERIC AND STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO RADIOSONDE DATAQUALITY. Dian J. Gaffen, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. A. Sargent, R. E. Habermann, and J. R.Lanzante

117 2A.13 VARIABILITY IN COLD SURGE FREQUENCY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FROM ASYNOPTIC-CLIMATOLOGY PERSPECTIVE. Michael Notaro, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W-C. Wang

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119 2A.14 THE IMPACT OF OBSERVING SYSTEM ON CLIMATE SCALE VARIABILITY IN THE NCEP AND ECMWFREANALYSES. M. Fiorino, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., UK; and P. Kallberg and S. Uppala

120 2A.15 DECADAL-SCALE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC DRYING FROM 1979 TO 1995 USING A REANALYZED TOVSPRECIPITABLE WATER DATA BASE. Steven R. Schroeder, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. P.McGuirk

2A.16 MORE SIGNS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VENEZUELA- FOCUS ON AIR VISIBILITY AND WATER EVAPORATION.Ramon A. Quintana-Gomez Sr., Universidad Nacional Experimental de los LLanos Ezequiel Zamora, Barinas,Venezuela

124 2A.17 DECADAL VARIABILITY OF THE ASIAN MONSOON. Alexander Gershunov, SlO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA;and N. Schneider, T. Barnett, and M. Latif

126 2A.18 A SEARCH FOR TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR TRENDS: 1948-1995. Rebecca J. Ross, NOAA/ARL, SilverSpring, MD; and W. P. Elliott

129 2A.19 CHANGES IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE U.S. Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO

131 2A.20 CHANGES IN THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. Pavel Ya Groisman, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC;etal.

135 2A.21 OBSERVED HISTORICAL LONG-TERM TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION IN THE AMAZON BASIN SINCE THE LATE1920'S. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, Brazil

139 2A.22 A GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX-MONITORING AND COMMUNICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR GLOBAL CLIMATECHANGE. Steven R. Schroeder, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

141 2A.23 AN INTER-HEMISPHERE COMPARISON OF EXTENDED WINTER SEASON CONDITIONS IN THESTRATOSPHERE. Shuntai Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Washington, DC; and M. E. Gelman, A. J. Miller, and J.P. McCormack

143 2A.24 ON THE NATURE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND ITS INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY. ThomasJung, Inst. fuer Meereskunde, Kiel, Germany; and E. Ruprecht

SESSION 2B: INTER-AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH (IAI) SCIENCE

2B.1 EL NINO, LA NINA AND CLIMATE PREDITION IN SOUTH AMERICA. Carlos Nobre, Instituto Nacional dePesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil

2B.2 THE IMPACT OF MIDLATITUDE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON CLIMATE. Michael A. Alexander, NOAA/CDC,Boulder, CO; and J. D. Scott

147 2B.3 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF MJJ CARIBBEAN PRECIPITATION. A. Anthony Chen, Univ. of the West Indies,Kingston, Jamaica; and M. Taylor, S. Bryan, and L. Marx

151 2B.4 SEASONAL, INTERANNUAL, AND DECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE WORLD OCEAN MIXED LAYER DEPTH.Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. Liu and C. Fan

2B.5 EVOLUTION OF THE STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION ON ANTARCTIC AND SUB-ANTARCTIC REGIONS.S. B. Diaz, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas (CONICET), Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina;and C. R. Booth, A. V. Oberto, D. R. Martinioni, and G. Deferrari

2B.6 GROUND-BASED ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION OBSERVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA.Humberto A. Fuenzalida, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Santiago, Chile; and S. B. Diaz, C. R. Booth, S.Cabrera, J. C. Labraga, C. Lovengreen, L. Orce, and A. Paladini

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155 2B.7 LAND-AIR-SEA INTERACTION AT THE ANTOFAGASTA REGION (CHILE, 23 DEGREES S): THE DICLIMAEXPERIMENT. Jose Rutllant, Univ. of Chile, Santiago, Blanco Encalada, Chile; and H. Fuenzalida, R. Torres, andD. Figueroa

2B.8 AN END-TO-END FRAMEWORK FOR THE EFFECTIVE APPLICATION OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE FORECASTSIN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF ARGENTINA. Guillermo P. Podesta, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J.Hansen, J. W. Jones, C. Kiker, T. LaRow, D. Legler, D. Letson, and J. J. O'Brien, F. Royce

157 2B.9 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF COLUMBIA'S HYDRO-CLIMATOLOGY.German Poveda, Univ. Nacional de Columbia, Medellin, Columbia; and M. M. Gil and N. Quiceno

161 2B.10 A 400-YEAR TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN TROPICS. Franco Biondi, SIO, La Jolla,CA; and I. G. Estrada, A. Burton, S. E. Metcalfe, D. R. Cayan, and W. H. Berger

163 2B.11 DECADAL TO SECULAR VARIABILITY OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT FOR THE LAST II CENTURIES:PRESERVATION AND CALIBRATION OF RECORDS FROM LAMINATED SEDIMENTS OFF THE BAJACALIFORNIA MARGIN. Juan Carlos Herguera, Centra de Investigacion Cientifica yde Ensenanza Superior,Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico; and B. Olivier, T. Herbert, A. Esparza, C. Lange, and J. Candela

2B.12 ENSO IMPACTS AND APPLICATIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN. Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA and Univ. of Colorado,Boulder, CO

2B.13 LATE QUATERNARY VEGETATION AND CLIMATE HISTORIES OF ARID LATIN AMERICA FROM FOSSILMIDDENS. Julio Betoncourt, USGS, Tucson, AZ

165 2B.14 LAND USE POLICY ON MARGINAL LANDS AS A RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING: AN INTEGRATEDECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC APPROACH. Mohammed H. Dore, Brock Univ., St. Catharines, ON, Canada; and M.Johnston and S. Kulshreshtha

2B.15 THE PACHITEA WATERSHED PROJECT - AARAM-PERU. Carlos A. Llerena, Univ. Nacional Agraria La Molina,Lima, Peru; and M. E. McClain

2B.16 HUMAN-CLIMATE INTERACTION IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE- RECORDS FROM THE CALIFORNIAS.Conception Martinez-Maske, CICESE, San Diego, CA; and J. C. Herguera

2B.17 PAPER WITHDRAWN

SESSION 2C: CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH (Invited Session)

2C.1 INTEGRATED RESEARCH ON HEALTH EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Jonathan A. Patz, JohnsHopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD

2C.2 FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE AND OTHER MOSQUITO-TRANSMITTED DISEASES. Duane J. Gubler, U.S. Dept. of Health Human Services, Ft. Collins, CO

169 2C.3 THE ENSO EXPERIMENT: USING CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION TO PROVIDE EARLY WARNING OFPUBLIC HEALTH THREATS. Juli M. Trtanj, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and P. A. Arkin

171 2C.4 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND MORTALITY IN CANADA. Abdel R. Maarouf, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON,Canada

2C.5 THE 1997-98 EL NINO: A RETROSPECTIVE ON THE EVENT AND FORECAST SYSTEM PERFORMANCE. NicholasE. Graham, International Research Inst. for Climate Prediction, La Jolla, CA; and L. M. Goddard and S. Mason

2C.6 EPIDEMIC FORECASTING- TOWARD A PREDICTIVE SCIENCE OF EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES. DonaldS. Burke, John Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, MD

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173 2C.7 CLIMATE AND ENSO VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED TO MALARIA AND DENGUE FEVER IN COLOMBIA. GermanPoveda, Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and N. E. Graham, P. R. Epstein, W. Rojas, I. D. Velez,M. L. Quinones, and P. Martens

177 2C.8 THE HEALTH IMPACTS OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN BRAZIL: APPROACHES AND LINKAGES.Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

JOINT SESSION J6: MULTIDECADAL AND MILLENIAL SCALE TROPICAL CYCLONE VARIABILITY (Joint with 23rdConference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology)

179 J6.1 MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIABILITY IN CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LANDFALLS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICOCOAST. Kam-biu Liu, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (Invited Presentation)

183 J6.2 ON THE CAUSES OF MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED ATLANTICBASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE COMING DECADES. William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins,CO (Invited Presentation)

187 J6.3 FREQUENCY OF TYPHOON LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CHINA DURING THE PERIOD 1470-1931. Johnny C. L.Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; and J.-E. Shi

189 J6.4 TRENDS IN HURRICANE LANDFALL PROBABILITIES IN THE U.S. James B. Eisner, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; andK.-b. Liu and B. L. Kocher

J6.5 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF TROPICAL STORM OCCURRENCE AND IMPACTS FOR THE USCOAST. Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, India; and A. Rao and A. Solow

J6.6 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DECADAL-SCALE FLUCTUATIONS IN VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NCEP/NCARREANALYSIS DATA AND ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. Stanley B. Goldenberg,NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea

193 J6.7 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN 1000 MB AND 500 MB WAVE CYCLONE FREQUENCIES, 1958-1997.Jeffrey R. Key, Boston Univ., Boston, MA; and A. C. K. Chan

197 J6.8 UPWARD TREND IN GLOBAL INTENSE AND SUPER-INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBERS 1969-1997.Frank P. Roberts, Univ. College London, Dorking, Surrey, UK; and M. A. Saunders

J6.9 ECONOMIC LOSS AND HURRICANE ACTIVITY. Lixin Zeng, Arkwright Mutual Insurance Co., Waltham, MA; andP. J. Kelly

199 J6.10 THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE DATABASE RE-ANALYSIS PROJECT. Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/HRD, Miami,FL; and C. Anderson, G. Clark, J. Femandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer

SESSION 3A: CLIVAR/VARIABILITY OF AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEMS (VAMOS)

203 3A.1 THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM (NAMS). R. W. Higgins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC

3A.2 PAPER WITHDRAWN

207. 3A.3 . DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE DIURNAL VARIABILITY OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. Connie M.Klimczak, FSU., Tallahassee, FL

209 3A.4 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PANAMANIAN PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS IN THE PERIODRANGE OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS. Kevin D. Leaman, RSMAS/ Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL;and M. C. Donoso

3A.5 THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM. Victor Magana, National Autonomous Univ., Mexico City,Mexico

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211 3A.6 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON: MECHANISTIC IMPLICATIONS.David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Ivanova and T. J. Brown

3A.7 THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. MathewA. A. Barlow, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam

215 3A.8 THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM. Vernon E. Kousky, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

3A.9 HIGH-RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE- VALIDATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLEOF THE AMAZON AND SOUTHWEST U.S. Andrea N. Hahmann, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Shaikh andR. E. Dickinson

219 3A.10 ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ONSET AND DEMISE OF THE RAINY SEASON IN AMAZONIA. Jose A.Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and B. Liebmann, I. Wainer, and V. E. Kousky

223 3A.11 THE LOW-LEVEL JET AT SANTA CRUZ, BOLIVIA DURING JANUARY-MARCH 1998 PILOT BALLOONOBSERVATIONS AND MODEL COMPARISONS. Michael Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Nicoliniand C. Saulo

227 3A.12 WARM SEASON MOISTURE TRANSPORTS OVER SOUTH AMERICA ESTIMATED FROM ETA MODELFORECASTS. Ernesto H. Berbery, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. A. Collini

229 3A.13 POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF THE MONSOON SUBCLIMATE SYSTEMS. Song Yang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt,MD; and K.-M. Lau, Y. Chang, and S. Schubert

SESSION 3B: ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

3B.1 ON THE EFFECT OF SIGNAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETECTION OF ANTHROPOGENIC SIGNALS. Tim Barnett,SIO, La Jolla, CA; and C. Doutriaux, G. Hegerl, P. Jones, B. Santer, E. Roeckner, K. Taylor, and S. Tett

232 3B.2 CAUSES OF TWENTIETH CENTURY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. Simon F. B. Tett, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks,UK; and P. A. Stott, M. R. Allen, W. J. Ingram, and J. F. B. Mitchell

3B.3 A MULTI-VARIABLE APPROACH TO CLIMATE-CHANGE DETECTION. Benjamin J. Santer, LLNL, Livermore, CA;and E. Roeckner, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, C. Doutriaux, K. Hasselmann, G. C. Hegerl, and J. J. Hnilo

236 3B.4 USING THE GENERAL LINEAR MODEL TO INVESTIGATE RECENT ANTHROPOGENIC AND OCEANIC FORCINGOF CLIMATE. David M. H. Sexton, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and C. K. Folland, D. J. Karoly, D. P.Rowell, and H. Grubb

240 3B.5 CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION USING SIMPLE GLOBAL INDICES. David Karoly, MonashUniv., Clayton, Vic, Australia; and K. Braganza, A. Hirst, and S. Power

242 3B.6 ABOUT THE NONSTATIONARY ENSO RESPONSE TO GREENHOUSE WARMING. A. Timmermann, KNMI, DeBilt, Netherlands

245 3B.7 CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION: APPLYING AN OPTIMAL FINGERPRINT ALGORITHM TOTHE ANNUAL CYCLE OF TEMPERATURE, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND PRECIPITATION. ReinerSchnur, Max-Planck-lnst. of Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and U. Cubasch

3B.8 UNCERTAINTIES IN DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE. Gabriele C. Hegerl, Univ. ofWashington, Seattle, WA

247 3B.9 SEASONAL DETECTION OF TWENTIETH CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE. Peter A. Stott, UK Met Office, Bracknell,Berks, UK; and G. S. Jones and S. F. B. Tett

251 3B.10 SIGNAL DETECTION BY OPTIMUM PATTERN REMOVAL. T. M. L. Wigley, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Santerand P. D. Jones

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252 3B.11 THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN RADIATIVE FORCING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDPREDICTIONS. Piers M. de F. Forster, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and N. Christidis and K. P. Shine

3B.12 ERROR ANALYSIS IN CLIMATE SIGNAL DETECTION. Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX;and M. J. Stevens

253 3B.13 CAN WE USE THE CLIMATE RESPONSE TO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TO ESTIMATE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY?Melissa P. Free, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock

257 3B.14 SUMMER DESICCATION AS A GLOBAL WARMING FINGERPRINT? Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ., NewBrunswick, NJ; and K. Y. Vinnikov, R. Wetherald, S. Manabe, J. K. Entin, R. R. Stouffer, V. Zabelin, and A.Namkhai

3B.15 NONLINEAR ENSO RESPONSE TO GREENHOUSE WARMING. Axel Timmermann, Max Planck Inst. ofMeteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and A. Bacher, M. Latif, J. Oberhuber, and E. Roeckner

258 3B.16 EL NINO AND GLOBAL WARMING. Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

3B.17 CLIMATE CHANGE AND EL NINO: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK. De-Zheng Sun, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES andNOAA, Boulder, CO

261 3B.18 MULTI-SCALE RESPONSE OF GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO SOLAR ACTIVITY. Hengyi Weng,SAIC/General Sciences Corp., Laurel, MD

265 3B.19 BEYOND ATTRIBUTION: EXPLOITING THE ANTHROPOGENIC SIGNAL Myles R. Allen, Rutherford AppletonLab., Chilton, Didcot, UK; and P. A. Stott, R. Schnur, and C. E. Forest

269 3B.20 THE ROLE OF SOLAR AND VOLCANIC FORCING IN THE LITTLE ICE AGE. Melissa P. Free, Univ. of Maryland,College Park, MD; and A. Robock

3B.21 A TELECONNECTION MECHANISM THAT LINKS CLIMATE CHANGES IN SUBPOLAR AND TROPICAL ATLANTICOCEAN. Jiayan Yang, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA

273 3B.22 ICEHOUSE EFFECT: A POLAR AUTUMN AND WINTER COOLING TREND? Peter J. Wetzel, NASA/GSFC,Greenbelt, MD

3B.23 ADIABATIC MECHANISM OF THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS. Roman V. Bekryaev, Arctic andAntarctic Research Inst., St. Petersburg, Russia

277 3B.24 CLOUD EFFECTS ON THE NEAR SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE: TEMPORAL CHANGES. Bomin Sun, Univ. ofMassachusetts, Amherst, MA; and P. Y. Groisman, R. S. Bradley, and F. Keimig

3B.25 POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUNSPOT NUMBERS AND WEAK INDIAN MONSOON RAINFALLOBSERVED DURING THE CURRENT CENTURY ON A DECADAL TIME-SCALE. Chintamani P. Kulkami, Sr.,Indian Inst. of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India

3B.26 RECENT ABRUPT CHANGES IN WINTER ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND THEIR RELATION TO PACIFICSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. Hui Wang, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Fu

282 3B.27 ON THE CLIMATIC INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE: INDICATIONS OF SUBSTANTIALCORRELATION AND PREDICTABILITY. Gregory R. Markowski, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and G. R.North

SESSION 4: PALEOCLIMATE

286 4.1 ICE CORE EVIDENCE FOR TROPICAL CLIMATE CHANGE: THE ROLE OF WATER VAPOR. Lonnie G. Thompson,Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

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290 4.2 LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO). Charles W. Stockton, Univ. ofArizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. F. Glueck

294 4.3 METEOROLOGICAL INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS FROM ANTARCTIC ICE CORES BY USING AN AGCMUNDER DIFFERENT PALEOCLIMATE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. G. C. Leckebusch, Univ. of Cologne, Cologne,Germany; and P. Speth

296 4.4 PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN CORDILLERA. Brian H. Luckman, Univ. ofWestern Ontario, London, ON, Canada; and E. Watson

300 4.5 RECENT, ANNUALLY RESOLVED CLIMATE AS RECORDED IN STABLE ISOTOPE RATIOS IN ICE CORES FROMGREENLAND AND ANTARCTICA. James W. C. White, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. J. Steig, J. Cole, E.R. Cook, and S. J. Johnsen

303 4.6 DECADAL-SCALE CHANGES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TREE-RING RECORDS. Franco Biondi, SIO, La Jolla,CA; and D. R. Cayan and W. H. Berger

307 4.7 AN 857-YEAR RECONSTRUCTION OF JULY TEMPERATURE FROM IDAHO TREE RINGS. Franco Biondi, SIO, LaJolla, CA; and D. L. Perkins, D. R. Cayan, and W. H. Berger

309 4.8 A 2,000-YEAR PALEOCLIMATIC RECORD OF DROUGHT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. Connie A.Woodhouse, NOAA/National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Overpeck

313 4.9 ENSO AND NAO: PRESENT AND 6000 YEARS BEFORE PRESENT AS SIMULATED BY THE NCAR CLIMATESYSTEM MODEL (CSM). Bette L Otto-Bliesner, NCAR, Boulder, CO

317 4.10 TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF WINTER AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN DURANGO, MEXICO, FOR THEPAST 600 YEARS. David W. Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and M. K. Cleaveland, M. D. Therrell,and J. Villanueva-Diaz

JOINT SESSION J2: ENSO AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION (Joint with 11th Conference on Applied Climatology)

319 J2.1 CIRCULATION PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH FLOOD-PRODUCING PRECIPITATION EVENTS. Kenneth E.Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. Andsagerand D. R. Easterling

323 J2.2 THE EFFECTS OF ENSO ON GREAT LAKE CYCLONES. James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and G. Van Dykeand S. A. Isard

327 J2.3 ENSO PHASE AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTENCE IN THE WESTERN U.S. Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV;and D. R. Cayan

332 J2.4 UNDERSTANDING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS IN THE NORTH AMERICANPRECIPITATION FIELD. Hengchun Ye, Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and H.-R. Cho

336 J2.5 DEFINING THE ONSET AND ENDING DATE OF EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON BY USE OF EFFECTIVEPRECIPITATION. Hi-Ryong Byun, Pukyong National Univ., Namku, Pusan, Korea

338 J2.6 TELECONNECTION OF THE 1997 EL NINO OBSERVED BY SPACEBASED SENSORS AND THE DECADALANOMALIES ION THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and H. Hu and X. Xie

342 J2.7 NORTHEAST AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE AND THE CHANGING ROLE OF EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION.Janice M. Lough, Australian Inst. of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

345 J2.8 ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ENSO IN THE CONTINENTAL TROPICS AND THE 1997-98 EL NINO. Wassila M.Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and V. Kumar

349 J2.9 SAHEL-ENSO RELATIONSHIP WITH THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSES (1958-1997). Serge Janicot, Lab. DeMeteorologie (LMD), Palaiseau, France; and I. Poccard

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J2.10 THE ANOMALOUS DEVELOPMENT OF 90'S ENSO AND THE DECADAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Qin Zhang, ChinaMeteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. H. Ding

351 J2.11 DAILY PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS AND ENSO: A CASE STUDY IN COSTA RICA. Michael Harrison,Univ. of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS; and P. R. Waylen and S. Laporte

SESSION 5A: MODEL SIMULATIONS OF PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE CLIMATE

355 5A.1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL VARIABILITY AND CO2-INDUCED WARMING PATTERN: MRI COUPLEDATMOSPHERE/MIXED-LAYER (SLAB) OCEAN GCM (SGCM) EXPERIMENT. Akira Noda, MeteorologicalResearch Inst., Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Yoshimatsu, A. Kitoh, and H. Koide

359 5A.2 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL VARIABILITY AND CO2-INDUCED WARMING PATTERN: MRI AOGCMEXPERIMENT. Akira Noda, Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Yamaguchi, S.Yamaki, and S. Yukimoto

363 5A.3 SIMULATIONS OF PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE USING A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GCMWITHOUT FLUX ADJUSTMENTS. John F. B. Mitchell, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and W. J. Ingram, T.C. Johns, C. E. Johnson, A. Jones, D. L. Roberts, and C. A. Senior

365 5A.4 CLIMATE SIMULATIONS WITH THE DOE PARALLEL CLIMATE MODEL (PCM). Warren M. Washington, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and J. W. Weatherly, A. Semtner, G. A. Meehl, Y. Zhang, T. Bettge, W. Strand, A. Craig, V.Wayland, and R. James

5A.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING. Paul J. Kushner, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton Univ.,Princeton, NJ; and I. M. Held

369 5A.6 THE ECMWF 40 YEAR RE-ANALYSIS (ERA-40) PROJECT-PLANS AND CURRENT STATUS. John K. Gibson,ECMWF, Reading, Berks., UK; and M. Fiorino, A. Hernandez, P. Kallberg, X. Li, K. Onogi, S. Saarinen, and S.Uppala

373 5A.7 THE ECMWF 40-YEAR RE-ANALYSIS (ERA-40) VALIDATION OF THE INTENDED SYSTEM. P. Kallberg, ECMWF,Reading, Berks., UK; and J. Gibson, A. Hernandez, K. Onogi, S. Saarinen, S. Uppala, and X. Li

374 5A.8 STUDYING TROPICAL CLIMATE EQUILIBRIUM WITH A HADLEY CIRCULATION MODEL. LucianoFleischfresser, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

378 5A.9 A COMPARISON OF GCM MODELS WITH EXPERIMENTAL MEASUREMENTS OF SURFACE RADIATIVEFORCING BY GREENHOUSE GASES. Wayne F. J. Evans, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin

382 5A.10 A DYNAMICAL STABILIZER IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM: A MECHANISM SUGGESTED BY A SIMPLE MODELAND CORROBORATED BY GCM EXPERIMENTS. J. Ray Bates, Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark;and V. A. Alexeev

384 5A.11 VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF STORM TRACKS IN REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS OVERAUSTRALIA. J. Katzfey, CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic, Australia; and J. L. McGregor

387 5A.12 SEASONAL TO INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS SIMULATED WITH AN INTERMEDIATE COUPLED TROPICALOCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL. Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Z. Fang

391 5A.13 EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS OVER WEST AFRICA IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATEMODEL SIMULATIONS. Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. Adokye

395 5A.14 PREDICTABILITY AND VARIABILITY OF NORTH ATLANTIC AND EUROPEAN CLIMATE. Mark J. Rodwell, UKMet Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and D. P. Rowell and C. K. Folland

5A.15 EXAMINING RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS IN A QUASI-EQUILIBRIUM TROPICAL CIRCULATION MODEL. Chia Chou,Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

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5A.16 DYNAMICS OF INTERDECADAL AND CENTENNIAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AXELTimmermann, Max Planck Inst. of Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and M. Latif

5A.17 MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY OF THE THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EXCITED BYSTOCHASTIC SURFACE FLUX FORCING. Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

399 5A.18 SPECIFICATION OF LONG AND SHORT TERM TRENDS IN THE PRE-1950 STRATOSPHERIC QBO. J. D.Sheaffer, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and W. M. Gray

403 5A.19 EFFECT OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE SIMULATED TROPICAL CLIMATE—A COMPARISON BETWEENAGCM AND CGCM. Akio Kitoh, Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and 0. Arakawa

407 5A.20 SENSITIVITY OF THE TROPICAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE TO SEASONAL AND LONG-TERM CLIMATE FORCING.K.-M. Kim, USRAand NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. -M. Lau

411 5A.21 SIMULATIONS OF ENSO USING THE UKMO HADLEY CENTRE COUPLED MODELS: CONTROL INTEGRATIONSAND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS. Matthew Collins, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and S. F. B. Tett andJ. F. B. Mitchell

415 5A.22 THE BALANCE OF GLOBAL ANGULAR MOMENTUM IN THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA. Huei-Ping Huang,Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and K. M. Weickmann

5A.23 EMPIRICAL DIAGNOSIS OF CLIMATE REGIME IN A COUPLED MODEL. Cecile Penland, NOAA/CDC, Boulder,CO; and M. Fluegel and P. Chang

419 5A.25 A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE APPEARENCE OF RUNAWAY GREENHOUSE STATE IN A THREE-DIMENSIONALGRAY ATMOSPHERE. Masaki Ishiwatari, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo, Japan; and K. Nakajima, S.-i. Takehiro, andY.-Y. Hayashi

423 5A.26 REVISED PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST PROCESSES IN THE UCLA GENERAL CIRCULATIONMODEL. Jui-Lin F. Li, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and A. Arakawa and C. R. Mechoso

5A.27 DYNAMICAL DIAGNOSIS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION- AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS,TELECONNECTIONS, AND ZONAL-EDDY COUPLING. Eric T. DeWeaver, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD;and S. Nigam

SESSION 5B: CLIVAR/VAMOS ECT.

427 5B.1 THE CLIVAR/VAMOS PROGRAMME ON THE AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEMS. Carlos R. Mechoso, Univ. ofCalifornia, Los Angeles, CA

431 5B.2 THE INTER-AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH: BUILDING MULTINATIONALRESEARCH NETWORKS. Bradford P. Wilcox, Inter-American Inst. for Global Change Research, Sco Josi dosCampos, SP, Brazil

5B.3 TROPICAL DIVERGENT CIRCULATIONS INFERRED SATELLITE-DERIVED DIABATIC FORCING UNDER SIMPLEINTEGRAL CONSTRAINTS. Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and H. I. Lu and E. W. McCaul

434 . 5B.4 INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS IN THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON AND THEIR TELECONNECTION WITH THENORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. Andrew W. Robertson, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. R.Mechoso and Y.-J. Kim

5B.5 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF U.S. PRECIPITATION, DROUGHT, AND RIVER FLOW DURING THE WARMSEASON. Mathew A.A. Barlow, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam and E. H. Berbery

438 5B.6 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BRAZILFROM 1979 TO 1997 AND SENSITIVITY OF THE CPTEC/COLA GCM IN PREDICTING EXTREME CASES. IracemaF. A. Cavalcanti, Inst. de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and V. E. Kousky

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442 5B.7 PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA DURING EL NINO AND LA NINA CYCLES. AliceM. Grimm, Federal Univ. of Parana, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil; and V. R. Barros and M. Doyle

5B.8 ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA- STATISTICAL APPROACHESTO AGRICULTURAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT. Martin 0. Grondona, Inst. Nacional deTecnologia Agropecuaria, Castelar, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina; and C. Messina and G. P. Podesta

5B.9 SUBMONTHLY CONVECTIVE VARIABILITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTH ATLANTICCONVERGENCE ZONE. Brant Liebmann, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis, J. Marengo,T. Ambrizzi, and J. Glick

446 5B.10 WATER MASS DISTRIBUTION ON THE SHELF AND SHELF-BREAK UPWELLING IN THE SOUTHEAST BRAZILBIGHT. Edmo J. D. Campos, Univ. de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and A. R. Piola and J. L Miller

5B.11 A MODELING-GIS APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECTS ON SOIL SALINISATION IN ASMALL CATCHMENT. Angel Utset, Higher Inst. of Agricultural Sciences of Havana, Havana, Cuba; and A.Centella and M. Borroto

5B.12 SEASONAL SIMULATIONS USING CPTEC/COLA GCM IN EL NINO AND LA NINA YEARS. Iracema F. M.Cavalcanti, Inst. Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and L. Pezzi

5B.13 ANDEAN AMAZON RIVERS ANALYSIS AND MONITORING (AARAM) PROJECT. Michael E. McClain, FloridaInternational Univ., Miami, FL; and R. Galarraga, A. V. Krusche, C. A. Llerena, L. Maurice-Bourgoin, J. E. Ruiz,and J. Quintanilla

JOINT SESSION J3: IMPACTS (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts) (Joint with 11th Conference onApplied Climatology)

450 J3.1 IMPACTS AND CUMATOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE 1998 NORTHERN NEW YORK ICE STORM. Arthur T.DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. Vreeland and M. W. Wysocki

454 J3.2 AMERICAN RIVER FLOOD FREQUENCIES: A CLIMATE-SOCIETY INTERACTION. Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno,NV

458 J3.3 VARIATIONS IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. John A. Harrington Jr., KansasState Univ., Manhattan, KS; and D. Goodin and B. Witcher

462 J3.4 EL NINO FOREST FIRE SMOKE IMPACTS ON LIGHTNING CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DURINGSPRING 1998. Walter A. Lyons, FMA Research, Inc., Ft. Collins, CO; and T. E. Nelson, E. R. Williams, J. Cramer,and T. Turner

466 J3.5 RELATIONSHIPS OF PRECIPITATION AND DAMAGING FLOODS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1932-1996. Roger A.Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, Co; and M. W. Downton, L 0. Mearns, and N. Cofield

470 J3.6 UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: FINDINGS FROM A RECENT WORKSHOP.Peter J. Sousounis, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml

474 J3.7 A COMPARISON OF INDICES OF EXTREME SUMMERTIME HEAT. Adam J. O'Shay, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY;and D. J. Gaffen

J3.8 NORMALIZED HURRICANE LOSSES IN CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN- PRELIMINARY RESEARCH FINDINGS.Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Rubiera and C. Landsea

478 J3.9 HURRICANE RETURN PERIOD ESTIMATION. Mark E. Johnson, Univ. of Central Florida, Orlando, FL; and C. C.Watson, Jr.

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1 0 T H SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIESPAGE

SESSION 6A: BLENDED AND ENHANCED DATA SETS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES

480 6A.1 DEVELOPMENT OF A 102-YEAR HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE DATA SET FOR THE CONTERMINOUS UNITEDSTATES. Christopher Daly, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and T. Kittel, A. McNab, A. Royle, W. Gibson, T.Parzybok, N. Rosenbloom, G. Taylor, and H. Fisher

6A.2 A BLENDED SATELLITE - IN SITU GLOBAL LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SET. Thomas C. Peterson,NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and A. N. Basist, C. N. Williams, and N. C. Grody

484 6A.3 PRODUCING A GLOBAL LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SET FROM THE SPECIAL SENSORMICROWAVE IMAGER. Alan Basist, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. Peterson, C. Williams, and N.Grody

6A.4 CHANGES IN TROPICAL PACIFIC RAINFALL PATTERNS. Nicholas S. Mirsky, Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK; andM. L. Morrissey

486 6A.5 AIR-SEA INTERACTION STUDIES OF THE TROPICAL INDO-PACIFIC SEAS USING DATA FUSION METHODS ONMULTIVARIATE SATELLITE DATA: PRELIMINARY RESULTS. J. J. Simpson, Univ. of California, San Diego/ SIO,La Jolla, CA; and C. J. Koblinsky

6A.6 COMPILATION OF A 20-YEAR SEA ICE MOTION DATASET BY BLENDING DATA FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES.Ron Kwok, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. A. Rothrock

487 6A.7 TRANSITION FROM NOAA WEEKLY TO DAILY HEMISPHERIC SNOW CHARTS. David A. Robinson, RutgersUniv., Piscataway, NJ; and J. D. Tarpley and B. H. Ramsay

491 6A.8 INITIAL RESULTS OF A GLOBAL BLENDED CHLOROPHYLL ANALYSIS. Watson W. Gregg, NASA/GSFC,Greenbelt, MD; and M. E. Conkright

6A.9 CONSTRUCTING SYNOPTIC MAPS OF STRATOSPHERIC COLUMN OZONE FROM HALOE, SAGE ANDBALLOONSONDE DATA USING POTENTIAL VORTICITY-ISENTROPIC COORDINATE TRANSFORMATIONS.Stacey M. Hollandsworth, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. R. Schoeberl, G. A. Morris, C. S. Long, A. J.Miller, and S. Zhou

492 6A.10 EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA SOURCES USED BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY-ISENTROPIC(PVI) COORDINATE TRANSFORMATION TECHNIQUE. Craig S. Long, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs,MD; and A. J. Miller, R. M. Nagatani, M. Gelman, S. Zhou, S. M. Hollandsworth, and M. R. Schoeberl

494 6A.11 MULTI-SATELLITE ASSESSMENT OF LAND SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS AT WEATHER OBSERVATIONSTATIONS: A CASE STUDY OF THE DALLAS-FT. WORTH REGION. Kevin P. Gallo, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington,DC; and T. W. Owen

498 6A.12 CONSTRUCTING EARTH RADIATION BUDGET DATA SETS TO ASSESS CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON DECADALTIME SCALES. David H. Tashima, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

500 6A.13 AN INTEGRATED SURFACE RADIATION BUDGET NETWORK FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH. John A. Augustine,NOAA/ARL, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Cornwall and G. B. Hodges

504 6A.14 THE EARTH RADIATION BUDGET SATELLITE 13-YEAR DATA SET. Kathryn A. Bush, SAIC, Hampton, VA; and G.L Smith, D. A. Rutan, B. R. Barkstrom, R. B. Lee III, and D. F. Young

SESSION 6B: WATER VAPOR, CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION

508 6B.1 INVESTIGATIONS OF CLOUD-RADIATION INTERACTIONS. Dana E. Lane, Univ. of California, San Diego, LaJolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville, S. F. lacobellis, and J. Berque

* 6B.2 SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF MONTHLY MEAN PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIALEMPHASIS ON THE 1997/98 EL NINO. Arnold Gruber, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC; and B. Vant-Hull and X.Su

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 OTH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIESPAGE

512 6B.3 INVESTIGATING INFLUENCES ON EARLY SEASON CARIBBEAN RAINFALL DURING THE EL NINO +1 YEAR.Michael A. Taylor, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD

516 6B.4 INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF SUMMER RAINFALL OVER SOUTH AMERICA. Jiayu Zhou,NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K.-M. Lau

520 6B.5 ON THE INFLUENCE OF INDIAN OCEAN SSTS ON RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. Lisa Goddard, SIO, LaJolla, CA; and N. E. Graham

6B.6 THE ROLE OF THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE VARIABILITY OF THE AUSTRAL-ASIAN SECTOR. John Fasullo,Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. Rossow and P. Webster

523 6B.7 LINKAGES BETWEEN MULTI-SCALE GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND PRECIPITATIONVARIABILITIES IN THE U.S. K.-M Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Weng

6B.8 THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. Ernesto H. Berbery, Univ. of Maryland, CollegePark, MD

527 6B.9 A COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND SIMULATED PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY IN DIFFERENT CLIMATEREGIMES. Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan

6B.10 TROPICAL RAINFALL ANALYSIS USING TRMM IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER SATELLITE AND GAUGEDATA- COMPARISON WITH GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY PROJECT (GPCP) RESULTS. Robert F.Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, D. Bolvin, E. Nelkin, and S. Curtis

531 6B.11 MIGRATION OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR FROM SUBTROPICS TO THE US WEST COAST ASOBSERVED BY MICROWAVE LIMB SOUNDER. Hua Hu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu

535 6B.12 OBTAINING AVERAGED AREA ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITATION FROM POINT MEASUREMENTS: AN OBJECTIVEOF THE SRDC. Barbara A. Gibson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. A. Shafer, M. L. Morrissey, and J. S.Greene

539 6B.13 SENSITIVITY OF CLOUD-RADIATION INTERACTIONS TO VARIOUS CLOUD PARAMETERIZATIONS USING ASINGLE-COLUMN MODEL AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION MEASUREMENTPROGRAM. Sam F. lacobellis, Univ. of California/SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville, D. E. Lane, and J.Berque

JOINT SESSION J16B: CLIMATIC CHANGE AND TROPICAL CYCLONES (Joint with 23rd Conference on Hurricanes andTropical Meteorology)

543 J16B.1 INCREASED HURRICANE INTENSITIES WITH CO2-INDUCED WARMING AS SIMULATED USING THE GFDLHURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM. Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya (InvitedPresentation)

547 J16B.2 INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE PROCESSES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL INTENSITY. Kerry A. Emanuel,MIT, Cambridge, MA

551 J16B.3 THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES: A NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT WITH THE T42VERSION OF NCAR CCM2. Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; andA. Kasaharaand H. Hirakuchi

555 J16B.4 INFLUENCE OF GREENHOUSE WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY SIMULATED BY A HIGH-RESOLUTION AGCM. Jun Yoshimura, Meteorological Research InstVJapan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba,Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Noda

559 J16B.5 IDENTIFICATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC WEEKLY CYCLES IN NORTHWEST ATLANTIC POLLUTION,PRECIPITATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONES. Randall S. Cerveny, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and R. C.Balling, Jr.

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