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NOAA Agency ReportHighlights of Activities

SHINE Workshop July 2010

Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies

Customer Growth – Rising from Solar Minimum

Power Grid

Airline Polar Routes

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Customer Growth SWPC Product Subscription Service

Customers Cycle 23Solar Minimum

SES Satellite Inmarsat FEMA Boeing FAA

North America Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC)

L-3 Communications

Florida Division of Emergency Mgnt.

British Petroleum America

Bonneville Power Administration

Washington St. Dept of Transportation

Caterpillar, Inc. Alaskan Airlines United Launch Alliance

Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Stations

Example of Registrants in 20092

New Customers: Increase in Subscription Rate Develops

Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies

Over 11,000Customers as of July 2010

Service begins

Solar Cycle Prediction

May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.

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Large Geomagnetic Storms and the Sunspot Cycle

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•1859 Storm •1921 Storm

The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during lower than average cycles

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Customers for New and Improved Space Weather Models

FEMA Administrator, W. Craig Fugate, and Director General of Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Helena Lindberg, meeting in Boulder 2/23-24/2010 to conduct a space weather exercise: “Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain—The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm.”

NextGen: Our Nation’s future air transportation system, with initial operational capability in 2013, relies on communication and navigation and how these activities are affected by space weather conditions.

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission

• The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013

• Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA• Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor

will be performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA• A coronagraph will be accomodated on DSCOVR or

another ride opportunity

• USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012

• All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet)

• DSCOVR earth science sensors are in the process of being refurbished

• A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow on mission

Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies

National Geophysical Data CenterWeb Services Access to Historical SWx Data

NGDC recently announced a new level of web services for providing direct access to its historical space weather archives. Datasets can be directly ingested into IDL applications (MATLAB under development) using SPIDR Client software available at: http://spidr-idl.sourceforge.net/ Data can also be easily obtained via a simple web call to plot and/or list data:PLOThttp://spidr.ngdc.noaa.gov/spidr/servlet/GetData?format=image&param=iono_foF2.BC840&dateFrom=20100201&dateTo=20100214LISTING http://spidr.ngdc.noaa.gov/spidr/servlet/GetData?format=csv&param=iono_foF2.BC840&dateFrom=20100201&dateTo=20100214

PLOT LISTING

NOAA Highlights

• Space Weather Workshop – 370 registered attendees; next year meeting dates 4/25 to 4/29 2011; NASA and NSF partners

• Space Weather Enterprise Forum - reaches decision makers

• Partnerships - Interagency, International, Commercial, Universities…

• Space Weather Prediction Testbed – Transition R2O– WSA/Enlil Cone model: pathfinder with work performed at SWPC to

transition to NCEP EMC

– Evaluation of geospace prediction models is underway in coordination with modelers and CCMC

• GOES Status – 12 and 13 operational, 14 in storage, 15 in post launch test; Planned: GOES-R 2015

• POES - NOAA 15,16,17, 18, 19 operational; METOP-1 in operations; METOP 2 and 3 planned; NPOESS – becomes Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) for NOAA – Space Environment Monitor under discussion

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• ACE and STEREO real-time data used in operations; SDO launched Feb 7, 2010—data used in operations

• ACE and COSMIC Follow-ons, including a coronagraph are in the President’s Budget for FY11

• Budget: base budget FY09: $6.1M; FY10 $8.8M; FY11 President’s proposed $10.8M. FY11 also includes $9.5M to begin DSCOVR refurb. and development of coronal mass ejection imager (CME) as well as funding for GOES, JPSS, and COSMIC-2

• High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System –NERC and DOE report June 2010 calls for evaluation of Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMD)

• NRC Associateship Awarded to Dr. Delores Knipp: Investigation of Solar Wind and Magnetosphere Driving of Energy Contributions to the Upper Atmosphere

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NOAA Highlights

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A Miracle

• March 4, 2010: GOES-15 launched• Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) non-responsive since turn on• June 3, 2010, 10:03 am EDT, instrument came to life