1 neighborhood assessment: technical issues to be investigated in the wilmington air quality study...

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Neighborhood Assessment:Neighborhood Assessment:Technical Issues Technical Issues

to be investigated in theto be investigated in theWilmington Air Quality StudyWilmington Air Quality Study

Vlad IsakovVlad IsakovTodd SaxTodd Sax

May 06, 2003May 06, 2003

California Air Resources Board

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Neighborhood AssessmentNeighborhood Assessment• Neighborhood Assessment Program:

– to develop and test methodologies for evaluating the impacts of air pollution on a neighborhood scale. • First study: Barrio Logan project

– Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol• Discussed previously• Peer reviewed in July 2001

• Second: Wilmington Air Quality Study (WAQS)Second: Wilmington Air Quality Study (WAQS)– Developing new protocol specific to WilmingtonDeveloping new protocol specific to Wilmington

• Improvements based on lessons learned in Barrio LoganImprovements based on lessons learned in Barrio Logan• Protocol expanded for improved model evaluationProtocol expanded for improved model evaluation

May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Status of Barrio LoganStatus of Barrio Logan


• Emissions – Microscale inventory completed

• Modeling– Microscale Modeling

• Microscale modeling completed– Point / area sources (ISCST3)– Mobile sources (CAL3QHCR)

• Tracer study

– Regional Modeling• Regional modeling completed (CALGRID, CMAQ)

• Integration of Model ResultsIntegration of Model Results• In progressIn progress

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Summary of Technical IssuesSummary of Technical Issues


• Emissions – Spatial and temporal allocation– Data accuracy

• Modeling– Microscale Modeling

• Model selection– Point / area sources (ISCST3, AERMOD, CALPUFF)– Mobile sources (CALINE, ISCST3, AERMOD)

– Regional Modeling• Model selection (CALGRID, CMAQ, CAMx)• Time period modeled (meteorology / averaging procedure)• Run-time / disk space• Spatial resolution (4km)

• Integration of Model ResultsIntegration of Model Results• Double countingDouble counting

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Why Wilmington?Why Wilmington?


• Identified as one of the communities most impacted by air pollution in the Los Angeles region by the SCAQMD in 1998.

• Located in close proximity to major freeways, ports, petroleum refineries, and other sources.

• Neighborhood sources located in close proximity to residential areas.

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Wilmington Modeling DomainWilmington Modeling Domain


90731

9082290802

90813

90745

90710

90810

Wilmington

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Status of WilmingtonStatus of Wilmington


• Developing Protocol (In-progress)

• Developing Inventory (In-progress)

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Microscale Inventory:Microscale Inventory:Lessons Learned from Barrio LoganLessons Learned from Barrio Logan


• Point SourcesPoint Sources– Most neighborhood sources not a concern Most neighborhood sources not a concern – Near source impacts could be an issueNear source impacts could be an issue– Stack data are required - often limitedStack data are required - often limited

• On-Road SourcesOn-Road Sources– Travel demand models Travel demand models

• Not all roadways coveredNot all roadways covered• Spatial resolution is limitedSpatial resolution is limited• Vehicle volume and classification - general assumptionsVehicle volume and classification - general assumptions

– Need to account for all roadway emissions in microscaleNeed to account for all roadway emissions in microscale• Off-Road SourcesOff-Road Sources

– Need to account for off-road emissions in microscaleNeed to account for off-road emissions in microscale

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Microscale Inventory:Microscale Inventory:Methodology for WilmingtonMethodology for Wilmington


• Industrial and Commercial Facilities - Industrial and Commercial Facilities - ExpandedExpanded– Large facilities Large facilities

• Multiple inventory data sources and on-site surveysMultiple inventory data sources and on-site surveys

– Neighborhood Sources Neighborhood Sources • On-site surveysOn-site surveys

• On-Road Sources - On-Road Sources - more detailedmore detailed– Enumerate and assess assumptionsEnumerate and assess assumptions– Sensitivity studies and comparison to vehicle countsSensitivity studies and comparison to vehicle counts

• Off-Road Sources - Off-Road Sources - major focusmajor focus– Bottom-up inventory, all source categories at portBottom-up inventory, all source categories at port– On-site surveysOn-site surveys

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Emissions:

Industrial and Commercial Facilities• 405 facilities-toxics / 259 -criteria• 170 surveyed facilities• Enhanced QA/QC in progress• Review by SCAQMD and selected

facilities in progress.

On-Road Emissions• Link-Based Inventory (>2000 links)• Evaluation in progress Marine Terminals and Related Off-Road• Port-specific inventories

Microscale Inventory: Sources in WilmingtonMicroscale Inventory: Sources in Wilmington


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Model Evaluation in WilmingtonModel Evaluation in Wilmington


– Sensitivity studiesSensitivity studies– Tracer studies (to ensure models provide reliable estimates)Tracer studies (to ensure models provide reliable estimates)

• Near-field (<50m) (done previously)Near-field (<50m) (done previously)• Local-scale (50m - 2 km)Local-scale (50m - 2 km)

– ground level release (done previously)ground level release (done previously)– Wilmington - elevated (stack) release. Scheduled for 2003 -2004Wilmington - elevated (stack) release. Scheduled for 2003 -2004

– Supplemental short-term monitoringSupplemental short-term monitoring– Uncertainty analysisUncertainty analysis

• Gasoline StationsGasoline Stations• Diesel PM in modeling domainDiesel PM in modeling domain

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Wilmington: Lessons Learned So Far...Wilmington: Lessons Learned So Far...• Industrial and Commercial FacilitiesIndustrial and Commercial Facilities

– 90% tox-weighted emissions 90% tox-weighted emissions ((from facilitiesfrom facilities))

• Cancer: diesel PM, CrVI, 1,3 butadiene, benzene, cadmium.Cancer: diesel PM, CrVI, 1,3 butadiene, benzene, cadmium.• Chronic: 12 pollutantsChronic: 12 pollutants

– Complex point sources - neighborhood scale riskComplex point sources - neighborhood scale risk

– On-site mobile source emissions contribute to traditional point source facility riskOn-site mobile source emissions contribute to traditional point source facility risk

– Neighborhood sources - potential near-source riskNeighborhood sources - potential near-source risk• gasoline stations, dry cleaners, small complex point sourcesgasoline stations, dry cleaners, small complex point sources

– Need correct emissions locationsNeed correct emissions locations

– Stack data are limited - defaults must be assignedStack data are limited - defaults must be assigned


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Continuing WorkContinuing Work• EmissionsEmissions

– Better understand accuracy and uncertaintyBetter understand accuracy and uncertainty• What spatial resolution can be achieved?What spatial resolution can be achieved?

– Identify “sources that matter”Identify “sources that matter”• Reduce resource requirements for future applicationsReduce resource requirements for future applications

• ModelingModeling– MicroscaleMicroscale

• Tracer study - evaluate model choice for stack-type releasesTracer study - evaluate model choice for stack-type releases• Toxics monitoring - help interpret model resultsToxics monitoring - help interpret model results• Uncertainty analysis - understand how assumptions affect model resultsUncertainty analysis - understand how assumptions affect model results

– Regional and Integrated Model ResultsRegional and Integrated Model Results• Double counting - ensure reliable model predictionsDouble counting - ensure reliable model predictions


1 neighborhood assessment: technical issues to be investigated in the wilmington air quality study...

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