1 modeling u.s. oil refinery production effects on domestic supply and demand. samantha...

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Modeling U.S. oil refinery production effects on domestic

supply and demand. Samantha Sancho-Herrera

Advisor: Patrick Kennelly

PSU GEOG 596A

Capstone Project Proposal

September 21, 2011

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Introduction Petroleum energy is a key factor in our world

economy.

The U.S. imports over 50% of petroleum needed to meet domestic demand.

This project proposes a GIS solution to aide the process of monitoring the balance of demand and supply of crude imports and refinery production in the U.S. market.

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Global Oil 1980-2008The U.S. is the top oil consuming country in the world but ranks third in oil production.

This imbalance creates an opportunity for imports to meet domestic demand.

Background Objectives Proposed Methodology Deliverables Project Timeline References

Global oil consumption

Africa

United States

Canada

C & S AmericaEurope

Eurasia

Middle East

Asia & Oceania

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

day

Middle East

United StatesCanada C & S America

EuropeEurasia

Africa

Asia & Oceania

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Millio

n B

arr

els

per

Day

Global oil production

Data source www.eia.gov

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Major Global Producers and Consumers


Centra

l & S

outh

Amer

ica

Consumption / Production Ratio

Midd

le Eas

t

Africa

Euras

ia

Canad

a

United

Sta

tes

Asia &

Ocean

ia

Europ

e

Data Jan thru June 2011 Data source www.eia.gov

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U.S. Import LinesBackground Objectives Proposed Methodology Deliverables Project Timeline References

Central & SouthAmerica 19%

Africa 17%

Asia & Oceania 3%

Eurasia 3%

Middle East 16%

Europe 19%

Canada 23%

Data Jan thru June 2011

Top 5 countries for U.S. Imports

Can

ada

23%

Mex

ico

11%

Sau

di A

rabi

a11

%

Alg

eria

9% Ven

ezue

la9%


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U.S. Data Districts The United States is divided into five Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts, or PADDs. These were

created during World War II under the Petroleum Administration for War to help organize the allocation of fuels derived from petroleum products. PADD 1 on the east coast is further divided into sub-regions as shown below. Hawaii and Alaska are not shown but are included in the west coast region. Today, these regions are still used for data collection purposes. (U.S. Energy Administration)


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U.S. Imports and Exports

UOM Million of Barrels


U.S. Imports

U.S. Exports



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U.S. Supply and Demand

U.S. Supply

U.S. Demand


UOM Million of Barrels



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Products Background Objectives Proposed Methodology Deliverables Project Timeline References

•Crude Oil•Natural Gas Liquids (NGL )

•Finished Petroleum Products•Hydrogen/Oxygenates

Supply Demand–Refined Products

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Gasoline Market Regions




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Objectives

Develop a user friendly GIS knowledge sharing market analysis tool for use by traders, coordinators and market analysts in the petroleum industry.

Create an interactive GIS solution to show the effects of decreased refinery production or storage fluctuations on supply lines and market areas.

Provide the users the ability to input increases or reductions in refinery production or storage for a specific product and calculate the resulting effects on supply lines and market areas.


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Proposed MethodologyData Sources

NationMaster Tabular data by country

U.S. Energy Information Administration Graphs by region Tabular data by region, country and PADD Tabular data for refinery production by PADD and product

ESRI Shapefiles for countries and states

Other Interviews with petroleum industry market analysts Literary review of publications on petroleum industry trends


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Merge state layers into PADD regions.

Join refinery shapefile with tabular production data.

Create shapefiles for product market regions.

Create shapefiles for refinery to market region supply lines.

Develop model to reflect changes in supply lines based on refinery production and storage capacity.


Data Processing

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Data Attributes


Refinery

•Market Region

•Product

•Production Capacity

•Storage Capacity

•Inputs

•Output

Market Region

•Refinery

•Product

•Intake

•Outflow

Supply Line

•Market Region

•Product

•Refinery

•Refinery Input

•Market Region Input

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Insert Refinery location Map


U.S. Refineries

As of January 2011 there were 148 refineries, 137 operating and 11 idle.

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Flex API Software TemplateSoftware Platform --- ESRI ArcGIS Viewer for Flex


www.esri.com

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Flex API Widgets


www.esri.com

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Sample Mock-up


North Sea& Africa

Canada

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Deliverables

Interactive web page with maps showing U.S. refineries with supply lines and market areas for specific petroleum products.

Models for supply lines and market areas based on user input of domestic refinery production.

Models will allow users to input refinery capacity and storage to represent increase or reduction in market supply.


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Project Timeline

Project proposal peer review 9/21.

Web site proof of concept created by October 30th.

Initial functioning model in place by December 1st.

Final presentation to petroleum industry analysts December 12th.


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References U.S. Energy Information Administration

Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI)

http://www.nationmaster.com

http://www.npnweb.com/ME2/Default.asp (National Petroleum News)

http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/grant/pdfs/CSA5eC03.pdf


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Questions ?

1 modeling u.s. oil refinery production effects on domestic supply and demand. samantha...

Documents

demand data source

data districts

products background

barrels data source

barrels background objectives

exports background objectives

data collection purposes

petroleum administration