11

Modeling the Information Modeling the Information Society as a Complex Society as a Complex SystemSystem

Noemi L. Olivera Noemi L. Olivera GECSI-FCJyS-UNLP, Arg.GECSI-FCJyS-UNLP, Arg.

Araceli N. Proto Araceli N. Proto CIC, LSC-FI-UBA, Arg.CIC, LSC-FI-UBA, Arg.

Marcel Ausloos Marcel Ausloos GRAPES-SUPRATECS, ULG, Belg.GRAPES-SUPRATECS, ULG, Belg.

Scientific Cooperation Agreement CONICET-FNRSScientific Cooperation Agreement CONICET-FNRS

22

WSIS Statement:WSIS Statement: ““We, the representatives of the peoples of the world, assembled in We, the representatives of the peoples of the world, assembled in

Geneva from 10-12 December 2003 for the first phase of the World Geneva from 10-12 December 2003 for the first phase of the World Summit on the Information Society, Summit on the Information Society,

declare our common desire and commitment to build a people-declare our common desire and commitment to build a people-centred, inclusive and development-oriented Information centred, inclusive and development-oriented Information Society,Society,where everyone can create, access, utilize and share where everyone can create, access, utilize and share information and knowledge, enabling individuals, communities information and knowledge, enabling individuals, communities and peoples to achieve their full potential in promoting their and peoples to achieve their full potential in promoting their sustainable development and improving their quality of life,sustainable development and improving their quality of life,

premised on the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United premised on the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and respecting fully and upholding the Universal Declaration Nations and respecting fully and upholding the Universal Declaration of Human Rights”of Human Rights” WSIS-03/GENEVA/DOC/4-E, 12 December 2003WSIS-03/GENEVA/DOC/4-E, 12 December 2003

33

Goals:Goals:

Intensive usage of ICT in daily life => Intensive usage of ICT in daily life => Information Society -IS-Information Society -IS- as well as different problems => as well as different problems =>

demand stable solutions demand stable solutions

Therefore, certain policies are requiredTherefore, certain policies are required

POLICY: POLICY: a course of action or inaction chosen by public a course of action or inaction chosen by public authorities to solve, in most cases, an interrelated set of problemsauthorities to solve, in most cases, an interrelated set of problems

BUTBUT

44

Issues:Issues:

Due to ICT, information is globally transmitted almost Due to ICT, information is globally transmitted almost instantaneously. instantaneously.

Yet, different societies and cultures have different Yet, different societies and cultures have different reactions to the information received and differentreactions to the information received and different times to absorb it and implement its “value”. times to absorb it and implement its “value”.

So,So, policies to be applied should be carefully policies to be applied should be carefully analyzed as they need to fill up at least two analyzed as they need to fill up at least two different issues: different issues: (a) to be acceptable for any national society (a) to be acceptable for any national society (b) to be coherent with external conditions(b) to be coherent with external conditions

55

Content:Content:

This contribution is devoted to show how This contribution is devoted to show how social, legal and ethical aspects of the IS social, legal and ethical aspects of the IS can and should be analyzed using the can and should be analyzed using the concept of complex systems, as the IS has concept of complex systems, as the IS has most of those systems properties, in the most of those systems properties, in the sense that societies and economies are sense that societies and economies are interrelated in a nonlinear way and often interrelated in a nonlinear way and often self-organizing within some general self-organizing within some general constraintsconstraints

66

Problems:Problems:

Two relevant problems regarding the IS Two relevant problems regarding the IS are treated in this contribution:are treated in this contribution:

(a) the Digital Divide -DD- (a) the Digital Divide -DD-

and and (b) the Internet Governance -IG-(b) the Internet Governance -IG-

77

Data?Data?

Both expressed through the perception of Both expressed through the perception of policy makers and social scientistspolicy makers and social scientists

There is little data to be analyzedThere is little data to be analyzed

In this context, data analysis followed by the In this context, data analysis followed by the construction of adequate physical models construction of adequate physical models which are able to describe different future which are able to describe different future scenarios that can be further discussed, scenarios that can be further discussed, appear to be if not extremely relevant, very appear to be if not extremely relevant, very much rewardingmuch rewarding

88

Part IPart I

The ‘Digital Divide’The ‘Digital Divide’

99

The ‘Digital Divide’The ‘Digital Divide’

the world is divided between people who the world is divided between people who do and people who do not have access do and people who do not have access to ICTto ICT

the DD involves the gap between the the DD involves the gap between the educated and uneducated, between educated and uneducated, between economic classes, and the more and less economic classes, and the more and less industrially developed nationsindustrially developed nations

To sum up: A DUAL SOCIETYTo sum up: A DUAL SOCIETY

1010

Ising model approach to Ising model approach to Digital DivideDigital Divide

Briefly, it is a lattice of sites (interpreted here as agents), Briefly, it is a lattice of sites (interpreted here as agents), each site can have two values (blue/cyan, +1/-1). each site can have two values (blue/cyan, +1/-1).

Neighboring sites have an energetic preference to have the Neighboring sites have an energetic preference to have the same value. same value.

The temperature is associated to the degree of interest or The temperature is associated to the degree of interest or relevance concerning a given situation: relevance concerning a given situation: to be ‘in’ or ‘out’ of the IS. to be ‘in’ or ‘out’ of the IS.

The external field represents the applied policies.The external field represents the applied policies.

Simulation method:Simulation method: C. Caiafa and A. Proto, C. Caiafa and A. Proto, International International Journal of Modern PhysicsJournal of Modern Physics CC 1717 (2006) 29-38 (2006) 29-38

1111

The initial situationThe initial situation

Fig. 1 Neighbor structure, Fig. 1 Neighbor structure, each agent has eight each agent has eight neighbors with whom to neighbors with whom to interact.interact.

Fig.2 Bidimensional plot showing initial Fig.2 Bidimensional plot showing initial situation/state of each agent. situation/state of each agent. Blue dots are the ‘in’ agents (+1) and Blue dots are the ‘in’ agents (+1) and cyan the ‘out’ (-1) ones, as in the cyan the ‘out’ (-1) ones, as in the following draws.following draws.

1212

Time evolution; Time evolution;

no external fieldno external field

Fig.3 Bidimensional plot showing the “stable” situation of each agent Fig.3 Bidimensional plot showing the “stable” situation of each agent when there is no external field ( = without policies)when there is no external field ( = without policies)

Fig.4 The number of ‘in’ and ‘out’ agents, Fig.4 The number of ‘in’ and ‘out’ agents,

plotted versus time/iterationplotted versus time/iteration

1313

Applying an external field Applying an external field (H = 1, arbitrary units), (H = 1, arbitrary units), that represents a certain that represents a certain policypolicy Fig.5 Bidimensional plot showing Fig.5 Bidimensional plot showing

the ‘’stable’’ situation of each agentthe ‘’stable’’ situation of each agent

Fig.6 The number of ‘in’ and ‘out’ agents, Fig.6 The number of ‘in’ and ‘out’ agents,

plotted versus time/iterationplotted versus time/iteration

1414

Finally, we apply a more Finally, we apply a more adequate policy (external adequate policy (external field H = 2 arbitrary units)field H = 2 arbitrary units)

Fig.7 Bi-dimensional plot Fig.7 Bi-dimensional plot

showing the ‘’stable’’ situation of each agent after a “long time”showing the ‘’stable’’ situation of each agent after a “long time”

Fig.8 The number of ‘in’ and ‘out’ agents,Fig.8 The number of ‘in’ and ‘out’ agents,

plotted versus time/iterationplotted versus time/iteration

1515

Conclusions on DDConclusions on DD

Numerical simulations of the Ising model shows that Numerical simulations of the Ising model shows that adequate policies drastically reduce the time required adequate policies drastically reduce the time required for the society to arrive at, almost all, ‘in’ agents. for the society to arrive at, almost all, ‘in’ agents.

In zero external field, a low number of agents shall be In zero external field, a low number of agents shall be ‘in’; it takes a long time to reach a steady state‘in’; it takes a long time to reach a steady state

Thus in many situations (countries, regions, social Thus in many situations (countries, regions, social groups), defined policies should be implemented in groups), defined policies should be implemented in order to encourage people to move ‘in’ the Information order to encourage people to move ‘in’ the Information Society. Society.

1616

Part IIPart II

The ‘Internet Governance’The ‘Internet Governance’

1717

The regulation of the The regulation of the InternetInternet

Internet, being a global network, should not be Internet, being a global network, should not be submitted to the national state regulation of submitted to the national state regulation of each connected countryeach connected country

Neither should it be submitted to the national Neither should it be submitted to the national state regulation of one given country state regulation of one given country 

In fact, Internet would be an ideal example of In fact, Internet would be an ideal example of an institution that can only be ruled by an institution that can only be ruled by international law; … actually, it is notinternational law; … actually, it is not

1818

Internet Governance : Internet Governance : Government, Management?Government, Management?

The WSIS is committed to governance, a The WSIS is committed to governance, a term term that corresponds to the so-called post-modern that corresponds to the so-called post-modern form of economic and political organizationsform of economic and political organizations

Some authors maintain that the cyberspace Some authors maintain that the cyberspace shows a somehow feudal character that shows a somehow feudal character that emerges from the hierarchical privatization of emerges from the hierarchical privatization of its government associated with the granting of its government associated with the granting of Internet domains Internet domains

ICANN, the gatekeeper of the Internet,ICANN, the gatekeeper of the Internet, leads leads the ‘the ‘de facto’ de facto’ management of the netmanagement of the net

1919

Internet Governance Internet Governance Forum (IGF)Forum (IGF)

In the Tunis phase of the WSIS (Nov. 2005), In the Tunis phase of the WSIS (Nov. 2005), governments asked the UN Secretary-General governments asked the UN Secretary-General to convene a Forum, to convene a Forum,

with the mandate to discuss the main public with the mandate to discuss the main public policy issues related to Internet Governance in policy issues related to Internet Governance in order to foster the Internet's sustainability, order to foster the Internet's sustainability, robustness, security, stability and robustness, security, stability and development. development. WSIS-05/TUNIS/DOC/6(Rev.1)-EWSIS-05/TUNIS/DOC/6(Rev.1)-E Inaugural Meeting, Athens, Nov. 2006 Inaugural Meeting, Athens, Nov. 2006 Second Meeting, Rio de Janeiro, Nov. 2007Second Meeting, Rio de Janeiro, Nov. 2007

2020

The regulation of the The regulation of the InternetInternet

““The international management of the Internet should The international management of the Internet should be multilateral, transparent and democratic”be multilateral, transparent and democratic”

Therefore, it demandsTherefore, it demands ““the full involvement of governments, the private the full involvement of governments, the private

sector, civil society and international organizations” sector, civil society and international organizations” (WSIS, Tunis Agenda, 2005, 29)(WSIS, Tunis Agenda, 2005, 29) BUTBUT

2121

IGF ParticipantsIGF Participants Government DelegationsGovernment Delegations

Private sector (‘Civil Society’Private sector (‘Civil Society’?)?) companies, companies, trade associations, trade associations, non profit organizations, non profit organizations,

fully committed to the Internet fully committed to the Internet

IndividualsIndividuals

International OrganizationsInternational Organizations ENTITIESENTITIES

ISOC Italy, ISOC Italy, SOTEL CHAD, NetTel@Africa, Telecom, … SOTEL CHAD, NetTel@Africa, Telecom, …

GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONSGOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS Norwegian Media Authority, IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Norwegian Media Authority, IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e

Estatística), …Estatística), …

2222

IGF Participants: agents IGF Participants: agents in the modelin the model

well-established in the Information Society agents: well-established in the Information Society agents: Old (Old (OO) STAKEHOLDERS) STAKEHOLDERS

ICANN, software companies, Internet providers and NGO ICANN, software companies, Internet providers and NGO involved in the development of communications and the involved in the development of communications and the Internet. Internet.

These agents presently lead the ‘These agents presently lead the ‘de facto’ de facto’ management of management of the netthe net

agents that are trying to find a seat in the IS agents that are trying to find a seat in the IS Governance: New (Governance: New (NN) PARTICIPANTS) PARTICIPANTS

‘‘civil society agents’, like NGO, individuals, SME civil society agents’, like NGO, individuals, SME can also include several governmentscan also include several governments

2323

The IGF outcomesThe IGF outcomes

Chairman’s Summary: Chairman’s Summary: among several appeals to self-regulation and soft law among several appeals to self-regulation and soft law

instruments, a consistent demand of state regulations instruments, a consistent demand of state regulations appears:appears: ““There was a clear convergence of views that There was a clear convergence of views that

governments had an important role to play in governments had an important role to play in creating a solid regulatory framework and making creating a solid regulatory framework and making sure that the rule of law was well established and sure that the rule of law was well established and respected”. respected”.

Whose views? Whose views? In whose benefit has such a demand been posed? In whose benefit has such a demand been posed?

2424

Modified version of the Lotka (Lotka, 1925) - Volterra (Volterra 1932) model applied to web site competition (Maurer and Huberman, 2000) and in hung scenarios in sociology (Caiafa and Proto, 2006).

N differential evolution equations (Maurer and Huberman, 2000) :

Lotka-Volterra model Lotka-Volterra model II

the time derivative of fi ; fi is the weight weight of the ii-th -th

agent opinionagent opinion, at each time t, with summatoria the fi

equal 1

(i, j = 0, 1, . . . , N).

2525

Lotka-Volterra model Lotka-Volterra model IIII

The parameters of the model:

i , the growth rate of the agent i,

i , the saturation value of the i-th agent.

In order to introduce the ‘size’ of the agents, the growth rate parameter i is taken as (Economo et al, 2005) :

a : is the selection pressure constant and equal for all agents living in the same environment (here the IS)

bi : reflects the inverse of agent competitiveness associated to the “cost to do something”(Porter, 1980).

2626

Lotka-Volterra modelLotka-Volterra model IIIIII

Competitiveness should be understood as the cost imposed to the agent’s ideas/interests to be accepted in the regulation of the Information Society. This simple modification of the growth makes it possible to take the modification of the growth makes it possible to take the agent’s ‘size’agent’s ‘size’ into account in a simple way.

We consider ten agents as an example; a = 1 equal for all agents (ideally, all the agents have the same rights as regards the policies for the sustainability of the IS).

Also for simplicity we keep i = = 1.

2727

Lotka-Volterra modelLotka-Volterra model IVIV

We look at the evolution of and determine the long term weight long term weight ffii (importance of its opinion)(importance of its opinion) of the ii-th agent-th agent.

Simulations have been done for a situation where there are 40% of Old big-sizeOld big-size agents (OO) (bbii = 0.10 to 0.13)

60% of NewNew small-sizesmall-size agents (NN) (bbii = 0.41 to 0.46).

Initial conditions for both, the OO- and NN- agents : ffii = 0.1.

ij values are fixed = +/- 1.

The OO agents are in competitioncompetition among themselves : ij sign is the same (positive = +1).

The N N agents cooperate (-1) or compete (+1); scenarios are ooperate (-1) or compete (+1); scenarios are determined through the numbers of identical determined through the numbers of identical ij signs: 0%, 40%, igns: 0%, 40%, 66%, 100%. 66%, 100%.

2828

Simulation Results

0 Coop0 Coop

50% Coop50% Coop

66% Coop66% Coop 100% Coop100% Coop

2929

Governance problem Governance problem SummarySummary

Convergence of whose views? Convergence of whose views? for whose benefit?for whose benefit? As the simulation results show, there is a As the simulation results show, there is a

chance to achieve a scenario where, by chance to achieve a scenario where, by means of cooperation between the means of cooperation between the NN agents, their demands are attendedagents, their demands are attended N.B.N.B. There are many weak agents among the There are many weak agents among the NN, but , but

there is also China, Brazil and some relevant there is also China, Brazil and some relevant independent NGO.independent NGO.

3030

Conclusion on IG Conclusion on IG

Through the L-V multiagent model, we arrive at Through the L-V multiagent model, we arrive at the conclusion that to attain an active role in the conclusion that to attain an active role in the Information Society, and therefore the Information Society, and therefore participate in policy decisions, participate in policy decisions, NN agents should agents should cooperate among themselves cooperate among themselves

There is even some indication of the order of There is even some indication of the order of magnitude of the number of necessarily magnitude of the number of necessarily cooperating cooperating NN agents in order to overthrow the agents in order to overthrow the OO opinion/attitude and how long it takes opinion/attitude and how long it takes

3131

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

We are handling with problems where there is little data to be We are handling with problems where there is little data to be analyzedanalyzed

In both DD and IG cases simulation results lead to predictions which In both DD and IG cases simulation results lead to predictions which are clearly equivalent to the consequences that some social are clearly equivalent to the consequences that some social scientists have forecasted, in terms of theoretical explanations of scientists have forecasted, in terms of theoretical explanations of phenomena that are actually comparable to those that are taking phenomena that are actually comparable to those that are taking place within the Information Society.place within the Information Society.

The modelization of the Information Society as a complex system The modelization of the Information Society as a complex system provides insights about how the Digital Divide can be reduced and provides insights about how the Digital Divide can be reduced and how the huge majority of ‘weak’ members of the IS would influence how the huge majority of ‘weak’ members of the IS would influence the outcomes of the IGthe outcomes of the IG and, in so doing, allow the Internet and, in so doing, allow the Internet Governance to “be multilateral, transparent and democratic”. Governance to “be multilateral, transparent and democratic”.

In fineIn fine, physics-like models appear to be if not extremely relevant, , physics-like models appear to be if not extremely relevant, very much rewardingvery much rewarding