1 mlc investments – performance preview year ended 30 th june 2009 michelle heinrich head of...
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1
MLC Investments – Performance PreviewYear ended 30th June 2009
Michelle HeinrichHead of Investment Specialists & Div’d Strategies
John OwenSenior Investment Specialist for Aust’n Shares & Property
Kajanga KulatungaInvestment Specialist for Global Shares & Private Markets
Natalie CominoSenior Investment Specialist for Debt
Amanda HeyesInvestment SpecialistResearch & Analytics
DisclaimerThis information has been provided by MLC Limited (ABN 90 000 000 402) a member of the National Group, 105-153 Miller Street, North Sydney 2060. This material was prepared for advisers only.
MLC Investments Limited ABN 30 002 641 661 is the issuer of interests in each fund of the MLC MasterKey Unit Trust and MLC Nominees Pty Limited ABN 93 002 814 959 is the issuer of MLC MasterKey Superannuation and the MLC Allocated Pension. Information about the MLC MasterKey Horizon Series is available in the current Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) or other disclosure document, copies of which are available upon request by phoning the MasterKey Service Centre on 133 433 or on our website at mlc.com.au. Persons should consider the relevant PDS in deciding whether to acquire, or to continue to hold, this product. Persons wishing to acquire an interest in this product must complete the application form attached to the relevant PDS.
Any advice in this communication has been prepared without taking account of individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on any information in this communication, consider whether it is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document relating to any financial product issued by MLC Investments Limited (ABN 30 002 641 661) and MLC Nominees Pty Ltd (ABN 93 002 814 959) as trustee of The Universal Super Scheme (ABN 44 928 361 101), and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document is available upon request by phoning the MLC call centre on 132 652 or on our website at mlc.com.au. An investment in any product offered by a member company of the National group does not represent a deposit with or a liability of the National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 or other member company of the National Australia Bank group of companies and is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss or income and capital invested. None of the National Australia Bank Limited, MLC Limited, MLC Investments Limited or other member company in the National Australia Bank group of companies guarantees the capital value, payment of income or performance of any financial product referred to in this publication.Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment may rise or fall with the changes in the market. Please note that all return figures reported are before management fees and taxes, and for the period up to 30 June 2009, unless otherwise stated.
The specialist investment management companies are current as at 30 June 2009. Funds under management figures are as at 30 June 2009, unless otherwise stated. Investment managers are regularly reviewed and may be appointed or removed at any time without prior notice to you.
2
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
3
The Recent Environment: No-where to hide
Source: Thomson Financial.
US
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
Eurozone
-6-4-20246
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
Japan
-10
-5
0
5
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
UK
-6-4-20246
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
4
Major economies' manufacturing conditions
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q1 1995 Q1 1998 Q1 2001 Q1 2004 Q1 2007
US Europe Japan
Deviation from average
Major economies' consumer sentiment
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q1 1995 Q1 1998 Q1 2001 Q1 2004 Q1 2007
US Europe Japan
Deviation from average
Global Green shoots?
Source: Composite based on US ISM survey, Japanese Tankan survey and European commission on economic sentiment survey.5
Consumer Confidence
Source: WBC, Conference Board
AU WBC CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEXUS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: THE CONFERENCE BOARD'S IND (RHS)
09070503019997959492
125
100
75
150
125
100
75
50
25
Australian & US Employment
Source: ABS, BLS
AU EMPLOYED: PERSONS SADJ %yoy US PAYROLLS NON FARM %yoy
09070503019997959492908886848280
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Australian & US Housing Activity
Source: ABS, Census Bureau
Aust private sector dwelling approvals %yoyUS HOUSING STARTS %yoy
0907050301999795949290888684
75
60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
-45
The lucky country!
Australian & US Business Conditions
Source: NAB, ISM
AU NAB Business Conditions US ISM MANUFACTURERS SURVEY : INDEX (RHS)
09070503019997959492908886
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
6
Credit markets have gone a long way towards reversing their post-Lehman losses
Barclays high yield spread over Treasuries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jun-87 Jun-90 Jun-93 Jun-96 Jun-99 Jun-02 Jun-05 Jun-08
Basis points
Spreads on investment grade debt are still historically wide
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jun-79 Jun-84 Jun-89 Jun-94 Jun-99 Jun-04 Jun-09
Baa rated corporates
Aaa rated corporates
Basis points
7
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
8
Annualised Returns to 30 June 2009
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
An
nual
ise
d R
etur
ns (
%pa
)
3-Months
1 Year
5 Yr
Impact on investment market returns
Source: MLC Investment Management. Index Returns
9
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
10
MLC MK Super Fundamentals: Horizon & LTAR Returns* to 30th June 2009
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
MLC Bondfund (100% D)
MLC CapStable fund
(70/30)
MLC ConsGrowth fund
(50/50)
MLCBalanced
fund (30/70)
MLC Growthfund(15/85)
MLC Sharefund (100% G)
MLC Accel.Growth fund
(130% G)
MLC LTAR
10 year 5 year 1 Year 3 month
•3 month & 1 year returns are MLC Super Fundamentals Super, 5 & 10 year returns are MLC Gold Star Super, both are net of fees & taxes. MLC Super Gold Star fees for H1 –H7 range from 1.91% - 2.48% LTAR is 2.76%, including adviser trail.
11
-27.0%
-18.0%
-9.0%
0.0%
9.0%
18.0%
27.0%
Mar 1988 Oct 1989 May 1991 Dec 1992 Jul 1994 Feb 1996 Sep 1997 Apr 1999 Nov 2000 Jun 2002 Jan 2004 Aug 2005 Mar 2007 Oct 2008
Ret
urn
(%
pa
)
12 Month Rolling Return 3 Year Rolling Return 5 Year Rolling Return
Return in Personal Super Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Mar 1988 to May 2009MLC0424AU (after tax and after fees)
MLC MK Sup GS - Horizon 4 Balanced
Data Source: Morningstar
MLC Horizon 4 - Consistent added value across market cycles
Horizon 4’s 5 year return has not dipped below 0% in the past. Losses over 1 year periods occur with almost boring regularity.
The rally in risky assets of CYTD2009 is reflected in the up tick in total returns on the RHS.
Source: Mercers Retail Balanced Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
12
Net* performance of MLC Horizon 4 (Super): Rolling 1, 3 & 5 Year Relative Returns
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Apr 1991 Aug 1992 Dec 1993 Apr 1995 Aug 1996 Dec 1997 Apr 1999 Aug 2000 Dec 2001 Apr 2003 Aug 2004 Dec 2005 Apr 2007 Aug 2008
Ex
cess
Ret
urn
(%pa
)
12 Month Rolling Excess Return 3 Year Rolling Excess Return 5 Year Rolling Excess Return
Excess Return in Personal Super Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Apr 1991 to May 2009MLC0424AU versus Median (after tax and after fees)
MLC MK Sup GS - Horizon 4 Balanced
Data Source: Morningstar
% of time outperformed competitors:1 year: 58%3 years: 63%5 years: 78%
Source: Mercers Retail Balanced Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
13
MLC Super Horizon 4: Absolute Volatility Standard Deviation (5 year rolling)
4.0%
5.5%
7.0%
8.5%
10.0%
11.5%
13.0%
Mar 1992 Jun 1993 Sep 1994 Dec 1995 Mar 1997 Jun 1998 Sep 1999 Dec 2000 Mar 2002 Jun 2003 Sep 2004 Dec 2005 Mar 2007 Jun 2008
Stan
dard
Dev
iati
on (%
pa)
5 Year Rolling Standard Deviation Median Upper Quartile Lower Quartile
Standard Deviation in Personal Super Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Mar 1992 to May 2009MLC0424AU (after tax and after fees)
MLC MK Sup GS - Horizon 4 Balanced
Data Source: Morningstar
62% below median
Source: Mercers Retail Balanced Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
14
MLC Super LTAR performanceMK Super LTAR net real returns to 30 June 2009 for different period lengths
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Period length in months
Cum
ulat
ive
net r
eal r
etur
n
95th percentile 75th percentile Median 25th percentile 5th percentile LTAR Cum.
Source: MLC Investment Management
15
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
16
Australian Shares: Market/Sector Update year ending June
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Info
Tec
h
Hea
lthca
re
Con
sum
erS
tapl
es
Fin
-x-P
rop
Fin
anci
als
Tel
ecom
s
Con
sum
erD
iscr
etio
nary
Util
ities
S&
P A
SX
300
Ene
rgy
Indu
stria
l
Mat
eria
ls
A-R
eit
%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Financial Year Ending
17
MLC Australian Shares: Strategy (top) and Manager (bottom) Update
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Dimensional
Lazard
Maple-Brown Abbott
Balanced Equity
Contango
Concord
J ardine
Wallara
Northcape
Northward Capital
Rolling 1 Year Australian Equity Manager Excess Returns
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Total
Source: MLC Investment Management. Before the deduction of fees & taxes.
Manager specific excess return for year ended 30 June 2009
18
Australian Shares Stock Story: Wesfarmers share placement (Using market opportunities to the advantage of clients)
January2009
February March April May June July
WES.ASX: 22.9
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
Shares placed at $13.50 p.s. on 22 January
Shares listed on 4 March
Current share price $22.87
Source: IRESS
19
MLC IncomeBuilder’s Primary objective: Increasing income stream with tax advantages
Source: MLC investment Management, for MLC Unit Trust IncomeBuilder.
1.86 2.46 2.23 2.73 3.04 2.83 2.984.24 4.87
6.74 7.64 8.21 8.71 8.97
1.68
3.59
5.34
0.43
0.35
1.310.99
0.02
0.35
0.08
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Financial Year End 30 J une
Cen
ts P
er S
hare
Income Buy Backs Total Capital Gains
20
MLC IncomeBuilder: Market/Sector Update: Sector Returns (%) to 30 June 2009
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Info
Te
ch
He
alt
hc
are
Co
nsu
me
r
Sta
ple
s
Fin
-x-P
rop
Fin
an
cia
ls
Te
lec
om
s
S&
P A
SX
20
0
Ind
Co
nsu
me
r
Dis
cre
tio
na
ry
Uti
liti
es
S&
P A
SX
30
0
En
erg
y
Ind
ustr
ial
Ma
teri
als
A-R
eit
Source: IRESS
21
MLC IncomeBuilder Stock Story: BlueScope Steel share placement (Using market opportunities to the advantage of clients)
J2002
O J2003
A J O J2004
A J O J2005
A J O J2006
A J O J2007
A J O J2008
A J O J2009
A J
BSL.ASX: 2.28
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.6
6
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.6
8
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.6
10
MLC IncomeBuilder’s managers participatedIn Bluescope Steel’s capital raising at a price of $1.55 per share, an all time low since the Company listed in July 2002
Source:IRESS22
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
23
Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (AREITs): Market Update (10 years to 30 June 09)
99 002000
01 02 03 04 052005
06 07 08 09
XPJAI.ASX: 15132.531
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
40000
42000
44000
46000
The sector has recently recoveredfrom historic lows
Source: IRESS, S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index.24
MLC AREIT: Strategy (top, rolling 1 year) and Manager (bottom, year to 30 June 2009) Excess returns
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Resolution
Capital
Challenger
Rolling 1 Year Listed Property Manager Excess Returns
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Total
Source: MLC Investment Management. Before the deduction of fees & taxes.
Manager specific excess return for year ended 30 June 2009
25
MLC AREIT Stock Story: CFS Retail Property TrustPrice of CFS Retail vs AREIT Index
• Approx. 6.4% of the total MLC Property Securities Fund.
• Second strongest performer in the AREIT sector YTD (-11%) and significant outperformer vs index
• Opportunistic $325 million equity raising in October ’08 underpins financial position
• Modest borrowings (25.6% gearing) positions the Trust well financially versus many other AREITs
• Quality Australian based retial shopping centre portfolio
• One of few REITs not to slash distributions (so far)
Jul2008
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2009
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
CFX.ASX / XPJ.ASX: 0.0023
0.00140.00140.00150.00150.00160.00160.00170.00170.00180.00180.00190.00190.0020.0020.00210.00210.00220.00220.00230.00240.00240.00250.00250.00260.00260.00270.00270.00280.00280.00290.00290.003
Source: IRESS26
Global Real Estate Investment Trusts (GREITs) Market Update (to 30 June)
-50-40-30-20-10
010203040
3 Month (%) 1 Year (%)
Global
Singapore
Australia
Japan
Hong Kong
UK
Europe ex UK
USA and Canada
S&P / UBS Global Investors Accumulation Index: 30 June 2009
Source: Resolution Capital27
MLC GREIT: Strategy (top, rolling 1 year) and Manager (bottom, year to 30 June 2009) Excess returns
Rolling 1 Year - Global Listed Property Manager Excess Returns
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
MLC (Un)
-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
LaSalle
Morgan Stanley
Resolution
Capital
Source: MLC Investment Management. Before the deduction of fees & taxes. Note: Morgan Stanley’s excess return is based on soft close preliminary data.
Manager specific excess return for year ended 30 June 2009
28
MLC GREIT Stock Story: Unibail (France)
Source: Resolution Capital
29
MLC GREIT Stock Story: DuPont Fabros (USA)
Source: Resolution Capital
30
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
31
MLC Global share fund update – reversal of returnsExcess Return vs. MSCI All Country Word Index (Unhedged) - July 1, 2008 to March 9, 2009
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
En
erg
y
Ma
teria
ls
Ind
ustr
ials
Co
nsu
me
r
Dis
creti
on
ary
Co
nsu
me
r S
tap
les
Healt
h C
are
Fin
an
cia
ls
Info
rm
ati
on
Tech
no
log
y
Tele
co
mm
un
icati
on
Serv
ices
Uti
liti
es
Excess Return vs. MSCI All Country Word Index (Unhedged) - March 10, 2009 to June 30, 2009
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
En
erg
y
Mate
ria
ls
Ind
ustr
ials
Co
nsu
mer
Dis
creti
on
ary
Co
nsu
mer S
tap
les
He
alt
h C
are
Fin
an
cia
ls
Info
rm
ati
on
Tech
no
log
y
Tele
co
mm
un
icati
on
Serv
ices
Uti
liti
es
Data source: Capital International, analysis MLC Investment Management32
Impact of style – Global Growth vs. Value?
Source: State Street Global Markets, Quantitative Strategy Monthly, June 2009
Some companies you own!
33
MLC Global private markets update
Vintage Year Commitments
All Data as at 31 May 200934
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
35
MLC’s Diversified Debt Fund and Horizon 1 – Bond Portfolio UpdateMarket update • Anticipation of an economic recovery has started to feed into the debt market which has
improved liquidity over the last quarter. • Money is now flowing from the “safe haven” of government debt, into higher credit risk markets.
That’s why 3 mth returns are so high but 1 and 3 year are still poor – they still have a way to go to recover the losses after Lehman Brothers’ collapsed in September 2008.
• Yields on inflation linked securities have risen because the market expects the government to increase issuance (supply) of these securities, pushing prices down and yields up.
Source: MLC Investment Management36
MLC Diversified Debt Fund UpdateStrategy update• We are seeing a reversal in the ground we lost in the few months after
Lehman Brother’s collapsed. • MLC’s position relative to peers and the market that hurt performance after
Lehman’s collapsed, are now helping returns - overweight to credit risk (and underweight to government securities) and overweight to global nominal bonds (and underweight to Australian)
• Overweight exposure to inflation linked securities, which helped returns in the “flight to quality” after Lehman’s collapse, has hurt returns in recent months.
37
MLC Diversified Debt Fund UpdateHigh yield bond story – Texas Competitive Electric Holdings
Company LLC (TCEH)• TCEH is a successful power producer. It is the 2nd largest
deregulated power generator in the US and the largest retail electricity provider in Texas. It has relatively steady operating cash flow due mostly to the consistent demand for power in Texas where it’s generating facilities are located. It also has no significant debt maturities in the next few years.
• But because of the forced selling of high yield securities following Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the price of the bond in MLC’s portfolio fell sharply and yields rose.
• WR Huff continued to believe the bond was “money good” and TCEH continued to operate as normal and honour interest payments. TCEH bond's market price vs interest coverage (EBITDA/Interest)
1.00x
1.20x
1.40x
1.60x
1.80x
2.00x
Dec'07 Mar'08 Jun'08 Sep'08 Dec'08 Mar'09 Jun'09 Sep'09 Est. Dec'09 Est. Mar'10 Est.
Inte
res
t c
ov
era
ge
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Bo
nd
ma
rke
t p
ric
e
Interest Coverage 10.25% '15 Bond Price
38
MLC Horizon 1 – Bond Portfolio UpdateStrategy update – at last the low risk portfolio has come into its own!• Because the Portfolio is designed to provide capital preservation it has been well insulated from
credit market gyrations over the past year. The portfolio has achieved a consistently solid positive annual return.
• Some exposure to the credit market has helped to boost returns recently but is really just recovering lost returns post Lehman Brothers’ collapse.
• Exposure to inflation linked securities, which helped returns in the “flight to quality” after Lehman’s collapse, has hurt returns in recent months.
• Cash was one of the better performing types of debt this past year. Now that the official cash rate has remained at 3% since beginning of April, prospective returns are not great. That’s why the cash exposure is a focal point for the debt review, underway at present.
• This last year, the benefits of a diversified debt portfolio have been evident.
39
MLC Horizon 1 – Bond Portfolio Update
Strategy story• Horizon 1 investors experienced capital preservation despite gyrations in
most debt markets over the past year. That’s because more than 70% is invested in our lowest risk debt strategies (circled).
40
Contents
Slide no.• The recent environment 4• Impact on asset class returns 8• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds 10
– MLC Horizon 4 11– MLC Australian share strategies 16– MLC Property Strategies 24– MLC Global Strategies 31– MLC Diversified Debt strategies 35
• The outlook 41• Appendix 46
41
42
MLC Horizon Return Potential*: as at July 2007 & January 2009
Prospective Return Frontiers (10 year time horizon, post fees, alpha and tax)
30/70
50/50
70/3085/15
130/0
30/70 50/50 70/30 85/15 100/0 130/00%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Equity-Debt Mix
Real
Ret
urn
(% p
er a
nnum
)
Mean-variance base Scenario
Probability Weighted Scenario July 2007
Probability Weighted Scenario Jan 2009 (constant scenario probabilities)
Probability Weighted Scenario Jan 2009 (revised scenario probabilities)
Source: MLC Investment Management, * starting valuations as at July 2007 and January 2009.
ML
C H
ori
zon
3
ML
C H
ori
zon
2
ML
C H
ori
zon
4
ML
C H
ori
zon
5
ML
C H
ori
zon
6
ML
C H
ori
zon
7
42
Asset Class Return Potential as at end June 2009*
Source: MLC Investment Management, *Starting valuations as at end June 2009.
SAA Scenario Probability Weighted Real Returns
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
DomesticEquity
Global equityUnhedged
Global equityHedged
Emergingmarkets equity
Unhedged
Domestic cash Short durationDiversified
Debt
All maturitiesDiversified
Debt
Domesticnominal
government
Domesticnominal
corporate
Global nominalgovernment
Global nominalcorporate
Domesticinflation linked
Global highyield debt
Insurancerelated debt
Ret
urn
% p
.a.
Probability Weighted
Mean in 10% positive tail
Mean in 10% negative tail
Long term 'normal' return
(7 years, 0% tax, pre fees, pre alpha)
43
MLC Diversified Fund Return Potential as end June 2009*
Source: MLC Investment Management, *Starting valuations as at end June 2009.
SAA Scenario Probability Weighted Real Returns (7 years, post tax, fees and MLC alpha)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Horizon 4 Horizon 5 Horizon 6 Horizon 7 LTAR Neutral LTAR CurrentStrategy
Ret
urn
% p
.a.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Probability Weighted Scenario Return
Mean in 10% positive tail
Mean in 10% negative tail
Long Term 'Normal' Return
44
The Outlook
• Global leading indicators, (consumer and business sentiment, and sharemarkets) are telling us economic recovery is starting despite lagging indicators (GDP, unemployment) still weakening
• The recovery seems likely to be VERY subdued – consumers (especially in the English speaking world) will take time to repair balance sheets and re-build savings
• Inflation whilst not a short term risk remains a medium term risk
• Emerging nations may recover more strongly than developed economies
• The Australian economy has so far held up well and is well positioned to benefit from a potential shift in global growth towards developing economies, particularly in Asia
• Investment return potential in this recovery is more modest than we’ve been used to and volatility is likely to remain high
• Diversification & discipline are still your best friends!
45
Appendix
46
PIC Wholesale Horizon & LTAR Returns* to 30 June 2009
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
PIC BondFund (100%
D)
PIC IncomeFund (70/30)
PIC ConsGrowth Fund
(50/50)
PIC BalancedFund (30/70)
PIC GrowthFund(15/85)
PIC ShareFund (100%
G)
PIC Accel.Growth Fund
(130% G)
PIC LTAR
10 year % p.a. 5 year %p.a. 1 Year %p.a. 3 month
•IDPS Fundamentals, MLC LTAR, MLC Income fund and MLC Bond Fund do not have a 5 year track record. Returns are net of fees but before the deduction of any rebates.
47
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Jan 1999 Oct 1999 Jul 2000 Apr 2001 Jan 2002 Oct 2002 Jul 2003 Apr 2004 Jan 2005 Oct 2005 Jul 2006 Apr 2007 Jan 2008 Oct 2008
Ret
urn
(%pa
)
12 Month Rolling Return 3 Year Rolling Return 5 Year Rolling Return
Return in IDPS Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Jan 1999 to May 2009MLC0260AU (before tax and after fees)
MLC Wsale - Horizon 4 Balanced
Data Source: Morningstar
PIC IDPS - Consistent added value across market cycles
Horizon 4’s 5 year return has not dipped below 0% in the past. Losses over 1 year periods occur with almost boring regularity.
The rally in risky assets of CYTD2009 is reflected in the up tick in total returns on the RHS.
Note: Mercer data is updated around the 20th business day after month end.48
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jan 1999 Oct 1999 Jul 2000 Apr 2001 Jan 2002 Oct 2002 Jul 2003 Apr 2004 Jan 2005 Oct 2005 Jul 2006 Apr 2007 Jan 2008 Oct 2008
Exc
ess
Ret
urn
(%pa
)
12 Month Rolling Excess Return 3 Year Rolling Excess Return 5 Year Rolling Excess Return
Excess Return in IDPS Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Jan 1999 to May 2009MLC0260AU versus Median (before tax and after fees)
MLC Wsale - Horizon 4 Balanced
Data Source: Morningstar
Net* performance of PIC IDPS Horizon 4: Rolling 1, 3 & 5 Year Relative Returns
% of time outperformed competitors:1 year: 38%3 years: 38%5 years: 30%
Source: Mercers Retail Balanced Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
49
49
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Jan 2003 Jul 2003 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009
Stan
dard
Dev
iati
on (%
pa)
5 Year Rolling Standard Deviation Median Upper Quartile Lower Quartile
Standard Deviation in IDPS Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Jan 2003 to May 2009MLC0260AU (before tax and after fees)
MLC Wsale - Horizon 4 Balanced
Data Source: Morningstar
MLC PIC IPDS Horizon 4: Absolute volatility (5 yr rolling)
15% below median
50
MLC MK Bus Super Horizon & LTAR Returns* to 30 June 2009
-35%-30%
-25%-20%-15%
-10%-5%0%
5%10%
MLC H1Bond Fund
(100% D)
MLC H2Capital
Stable Fund(70/30)
MLC H3Cons
GrowthFund (50/50)
MLc H4Balanced
Fund (30/70)
MLC H5Growth
Fund(15/85)
MLC H6Share Fund
(100% G)
MLC H7Accel.
GrowthFund (130%
G)
MLC LTAR
10 year %p.a. 5 year %p.a. 1 Year %p.a. 3 month
*Returns are net of management fees and super tax.
51
-32.0%
-24.0%
-16.0%
-8.0%
0.0%
8.0%
16.0%
24.0%
32.0%
Jan 1999 Oct 1999 Jul 2000 Apr 2001 Jan 2002 Oct 2002 Jul 2003 Apr 2004 Jan 2005 Oct 2005 Jul 2006 Apr 2007 Jan 2008 Oct 2008
Ret
urn
(%
pa
)
12 Month Rolling Return 3 Year Rolling Return 5 Year Rolling Return
Return in Employer Super Multi-Sector High Growth from Jan 1999 to May 2009Horizon 5 (after tax and after fees)
MLC MKey Bus Sup - Horizon 5 Growth
Data Source: Morningstar
MLC Business Super Horizon 5 - Consistent added value across market cycles
MLC MK Business Super Horizon 5’s 5 year return has not dipped below 0% in the past. Losses over 1 year periods occur with almost boring regularity.
The rally in risky assets of CYTD2009 is reflected in the up tick in total returns on the RHS.
Source: Mercers Employer Super High Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Note that Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.52
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jan 1999 Oct 1999 Jul 2000 Apr 2001 Jan 2002 Oct 2002 Jul 2003 Apr 2004 Jan 2005 Oct 2005 Jul 2006 Apr 2007 Jan 2008 Oct 2008
Exc
ess
Ret
urn
(%pa
)
12 Month Rolling Excess Return 3 Year Rolling Excess Return 5 Year Rolling Excess Return
Excess Return in Employer Super Multi-Sector High Growth - Master Trusts from Jan 1999 to May 2009Horizon 5 versus Median (after tax and after fees)
MLC MKey Bus Sup - Horizon 5 Growth
Data Source: Morningstar
Net* performance of MLC Business Super Horizon 5: Rolling 1, 3 & 5 Year Relative Returns
% of time outperformed Master Trust competitors:1 year: 54%3 years: 68%5 years: 68%
Source: Mercers Employer Super High Growth Master Trust Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
53
5.0%
6.5%
8.0%
9.5%
11.0%
12.5%
Jan 2003 Jul 2003 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009
Stan
dard
Dev
iati
on (%
pa)
5 Year Rolling Standard Deviation Median Upper Quartile Lower Quartile
Standard Deviation in Employer Super Multi-Sector High Growth - Master Trusts from Jan 2003 to May 2009Horizon 5 (after tax and after fees)
MLC MKey Bus Sup - Horizon 5 Growth
Data Source: Morningstar
MLC MK Business Super Horizon 5: Absolute volatility (5 yr rolling)
100% below median
Source: Mercers Employer Super High Growth Master Trust Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
54