1 maintaining perspective in volatile markets for investors not fdic insured may lose value no bank...

26
1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

Upload: victoria-lyon

Post on 26-Mar-2015

216 views

Category:

Documents


3 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

1

Maintaining perspective in volatile markets

FOR INVESTORS

Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

Page 2: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

2

Importance of avoiding the emotional roller coaster

GREED

FEAR

Apprehension

DejectionHope

Cheer

Enthusiasm

Exhilaration

Enthusiasm

Confidence ConfidencePanic

Page 3: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

3

Global events can affect our emotions

Global terrorism on the rise

Debt crisis lingers in the U.S. and Europe

Afghan war now longest in U.S. history

Middle East and North Africa remain volatile

Page 4: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

4

Economic events – and headlines – can seem even worse

U.S. economy sees worst downturn

since Great Depression

S&P downgrades U.S. debt for the first time in history

U.S. deficit seems out of control

4

Page 5: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

5

“The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.”

– Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Source: Morey Engle, The Harry M. Rhoads Photograph Collection, Denver Public Library.

Page 6: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

6

In the short term, markets can go in 3 directions

Remain flat Move up Move down

Page 7: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

7

Long term, the market trend has been up

Historical growth of the S&P 500® Index, January 1980–July 2011. Initial investment of $10,000. Returns include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual or future performance of any Fidelity fund. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of presentation for index definitions.

12/80 12/82 12/84 12/86 12/88 12/90 12/92 12/94 12/96 12/98 12/00 12/02 12/04 12/06 12/08 12/10 7/11

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

Page 8: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

8

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

12/80 12/82 12/84 12/86 12/88 12/90 12/92 12/94 12/96 12/98 12/00 12/02 12/04 12/06 12/08 12/10 7/11

Sudden events can disrupt the long-term view

Historical growth of the S&P 500 Index, January 1980–July 2011. Initial investment of $10,000. Returns include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual or future performance of any Fidelity fund. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of presentation for index definitions.

9/11

Start of S&L crisis

Iraq invades Kuwait

Dot-com bubble bursts

Global financial crisis

Black Monday

IraqWarWorld

Trade Center

bombing

Page 9: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

9

History is not repeating itself

The situation has markedly improved since 2008:

• Corporate balance sheets are stronger

• Corporate profits are robust

• Banks are better capitalized

• Interest rates are starting low and staying low

• Leading economic indicators are improving

9

Page 10: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

10

Source: Ned Davis Research, 2/20/28–8/22/11. Bull and bear markets defined as -10/+10% reversals in the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

How often does the market move by at least 10%?

Average period of gain:

223 days

Average frequency:

once a year

Average period of loss:

102 days

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

-50%-20%

34%

Average loss Average gain

Page 11: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

11

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

-50%

How often does the market move by at least 20%?

Average period of gain:

885 days

Average frequency:

once every 3 ½ years

Average period of loss:

299 days

Source: Ned Davis Research, 2/20/28–8/22/11. Bull and bear markets defined as -20/+20% reversals in the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

101%

-36%Average loss Average gain

Page 12: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

12

-48%

247%

How often does the market move by at least 30%?

Source: Ned Davis Research, 2/20/28–8/22/11. Bull and bear markets defined as -30/+30% reversals in the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

Average period of gain:

1,887 days

Average frequency:

once every 6 years

Average period of loss:

497 days

Average loss Average gain

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

-50%

Page 13: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

13

Periods of gains are

longer and strongerthan periods of decline

Page 14: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

14

Most recent rebound has been strong as well

Cumulative returns from market bottom of recent recession

83.6%Dow Jones Industrial Average

108.6%NASDAQ

91.2%S&P 500 Index

90.6%International stocks

146.9%Emerging markets

Source: FMRCo, 3/9/09-12/31/10.U.S. stock market returns are represented by total return of Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ and S&P 500 Index. International stocks and emerging markets are represented by MSCI® EAFE® and MSCI Emerging Markets, respectively. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

Page 15: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

15

Trying to time the market can be costly

Average annual returns for stocks for 30-year period ending 6/30/11

Source: FactSet, 6/30/81–6/30/11.Stock returns represented by total return of the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

8.0%

6.4%5.4%

3.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Missing 0 days

By missing 5 best days

By missing 10 best days

By missing 20 best days

Page 16: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

16

Source: Morningstar EnCorr.Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

Staying the course has been a solid strategy

Stocks have rebounded within a year of decline

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1/73–9/74 1/77–2/78 12/80–7/82 9/87–11/87 6/90–10/90 7/98–8/98 4/00–9/02 11/07–3/09

Decline After 6 months After 12 months

Page 17: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

17

Investors who kept investing have seen more gains since 2008

Fidelity Workplace defined contribution data based on nearly 20,500 recordkept plans and more than 11.6 million recordkept participants as of June 30, 2011. Average account balance growth for continuous participants from 9/30/08 through 6/30/11. The analyses exclude tax-exempt accounts and nonqualified plans, but include participant and plan data from the Fidelity Advisor 401(k) Program. · Column 1: 25.8% represents 49,900 participants. Column 2: 51.2% represents 76,900 participants. Column 3: 63.8% represents 3.1 million participants.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Average account balance growth for continuous investors

Stopped investing and subsequently

restarted

Stopped investing and did not restart

Did not stop investing

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

25.8%

63.8%

51.2%

Page 18: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

18

Systematic investing can contribute to your growth potential

Dollar cost averaging does not ensure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. For the strategy to be effective, you must continue to purchase shares in both up and down markets. · Hypothetical examples assume a beginning plan account balance of $0; monthly pre-tax contributions of $500, $300, and $100 for 30 years; and an effective annual rate of return of 7%. Ending values do not reflect taxes, fees, or inflation. If they did, amounts would be lower. · Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

Hypothetical value of investments over time

$588,032

$352,819

$117,606

5 years 10 years 15 years 25 years20 years 30 years

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$500/month

$300/month

$100/month

Page 19: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

19

“The key to making money in the stock market is not to get scared out of it."

– Peter Lynch

Page 20: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

20

Market returns have been much more powerful than cash

Average annual returns: 1981–2010

Source: Morningstar EnCorr 2011. This chart represents the average annual return percentage for the investment categories shown for the 30-year period of 1981–2010. Returns include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual or implied performance of any investment option.Inflation, cash and equivalents, bonds, international stocks, and U.S. stocks are represented by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Ibbotson U.S. 30-Day T-Bill Index, the Ibbotson U.S. Intermediate Government Bond Index, MSCI EAFE, and the S&P 500 Index, respectively. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of presentation for index definitions.

Inflation Cash and equivalents

Bonds International stocks

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

3.2%

8.5%9.7%

U.S. stocks

10.7%12.0%

5.1%

Page 21: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

21

Diversification is an effective investment approach

Source: FMRCo, 12/31/01–12/31/10.Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.Bonds, high yield bonds, short-term investments, small-cap stocks, large-cap stocks, and international stocks are represented by the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Index, Ibbotson U.S. 30-Day T-Bill Index, Russell 2000® Index, S&P 500 Index, and MSCI EAFE Index, respectively. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund. See end of presentation for index definitions.

Page 22: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

22

What have we learned?

Since 2008 the details have changed, but the conclusions

remain the same.

Some tactical adjustments to your portfolio may be in order.

Moving entirely to cash has been costly, while staying in

the market has paid off.

22

Page 23: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

23

Meet with your advisor and go over your plan

• Review whether your financial

picture has changed

• Discuss your risk tolerance and

investment horizon

• Determine whether your portfolio

is appropriately diversified

• Invest regularly

• Set up ongoing meetings with your advisor

Page 24: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

24

Maintain your confidence

GREED

FEAR

Apprehension

DejectionHope

Cheer

Enthusiasm

Exhilaration

Enthusiasm

Confidence ConfidencePanic

Page 25: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

25

Index definitions

Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held U.S. stocks and includes reinvestment of dividends.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is an unmanaged average of common stocks comprised of major industrial companies and assumes reinvestment of dividends.

NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to represent the performance of the National Market System which includes stocks traded only over-the-counter and not on an exchange.

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to represent the performance of developed stock markets outside the United States and Canada.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of equity securities of companies domiciled in various countries. The index is designed to represent the performance of emerging stock markets throughout the world and excludes certain market segments unavailable to U.S. based investors.

Consumer Price Index, (CPI) is a widely recognized measure of inflation, calculated by the U.S. government.

Ibbotson U.S. 30-Day T-Bill Index is an unmanaged unweighted index which measures the performance of one-month maturity U.S. Treasury Bills. Each month a one-bill portfolio containing the shortest-term bill having not less than one month to maturity is constructed. To measure holding period returns for the one-bill portfolio, the bill is priced as of the last trading day of the previous month-end and as of the last trading day of the current month.

Ibbotson U.S. Intermediate Government Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of U.S. government fixed-rate debt issues with maturities between one and 10 years.

Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities, with maturities of at least one year.

Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of the stocks of the 2,000 smallest companies included in the 3,000 largest U.S.-domiciled companies.

BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Index is an unmanaged index that tracks the performance of below investment grade U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market.

Important information

Page 26: 1 Maintaining perspective in volatile markets FOR INVESTORS Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

26

Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All market indices are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund.

Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.

The securities of smaller, less well-known companies can be more volatile than those of larger companies.

Foreign securities are subject to interest rate, currency exchange rate, economic, and political risks, all of which are magnified in emerging markets.

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed-income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed-income securities also carry inflation, credit, and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so holding them until maturity to avoid losses caused by price volatility is not possible.

Lower-quality bonds can be more volatile and have greater risk of default than higher-quality bonds.

Third-party trademarks and service marks are the property of their respective owners. All other trademarks and service marks are the property of FMR LLC or an affiliated company.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact your investment professional or visit advisor.fidelity.com for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

Important information

508021.6.0 1.908564.1010911

FIDELITY INVESTMENTS INSTITUTIONAL SERVICES COMPANY, INC., 100 SALEM STREET, SMITHFIELD, RI 02917