1 land in: other uses in transition in switchgrass crop lifetime net sg addition of acres acres in...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Land in:Other UsesIn Transition
In Switchgrass
Crop LifetimeNet SG Addition
Of Acres
Acres inSwitchgrass
Yield from Ag R&DAve Yield in Established Land
FeedstockPrice
FeedstockPrice
OverallYield/Acre
Total BiomassProduction
State-of-the-artYield/Acre
Land Established in SGLand Converting to SG
Land Reverting
Total ResidueCollected
Land Allocation
Land Use
Ag R&D andYield
Biomass Production
Ag & Forest Residue Collect
DeliveredFeedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Influx, Turnover& Retrofit
Fleet Size &Vehicle Efficiency
FuelConsumption
FeedstockPrice
Individual PlantFeedstock Demand**
Feedstock Price**
Total Biomass Production& Residue Collection**
Demand for Feedstock**
Potential EtOHDemand fromFuel Usage**
Vehicle InfluxTime to RetirementRetrofitting Logic
Fleet SizeAverage Vehicle Efficiency
RetiringTotal Fleet SizeFleet A & B Size
IncreaseIn Ag Output**
2
Agricultural & Forest Residue Collection
Calculates the total Agricultural and Forest Residues available at different
feedstock prices Total Biomass Production
Feedstock Price
Maximum Ag Yield Improvement = 25%
Ag Residue Linear Annual Growth Rate = 1%
Ag &
Forest R
esidue Collection – 1
3
Agricultural & Forest Residue Collection
Calculates the total Agricultural and Forest Residues available at different
feedstock pricesForest Residue Availability is fixed and is only a
function of offer price
Forest Residue Collected (MM
ton/yr)
Feedstock Price
Feedstock Price
Total Biomass Production
Maximum Ag Yield Improvement = 25%
Ag Residue Linear Annual Growth Rate = 1%
Ag &
Forest R
esidue Collection – 2
4
Agricultural & Forest Residue Collection
Calculates the total Agricultural and Forest Residues available at different
feedstock pricesForest Residue Availability is fixed and is only a
function of offer price
Total Biomass Production
Forest Residue Collected (MM
ton/yr)
Ag Residue Collected
(MM ton/yr)
Feedstock Price Feedstock Price
Feedstock Price
Maximum Ag Yield Improvement = 25%
Ag Residue Linear Annual Growth Rate = 1%
Ag &
Forest R
esidue Collection – 3
Ag Residue Availability is a function of offer price with 1% linear growth rate up to 25%
growth from the 2005 quantity.
5
Ag Supply Multiplier
Ag Residue Supply Growth Rate
Niminal Linear Growth
Rate Ag Residues
feedstock price ~
Year2005 Ag Residue Collected
Million Tons per Year
Ag Residue Collected
Million Tons Per Year
~
Forest Residue Collected
Million Tons per Year
Total Residue Collected
Milltion Tons per Year
Max Yield Improv ement
Agricultural and Forest Residue Collection
Agricultural & Forest Residue CollectionA
g & F
orest Residue C
ollection – 4 Actual STELLA
Module Flowsheet
6
Established
in SwitchGrass
crop lifetime
In Other
Uses In
Transition
conv erting
to SGmaturing
rev erting
maturation time
net SG addition of acres
Land Use High Level Structure: Acres in: "other" uses, transition, switchgrass
Crop Lifetime
Net SG Addition of Acres
Land Use
Land in:
Other Uses
In Transition
In Switchgrass
Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG Land Reverting
Calculates the amount of land that is being used for switchgrass
production (acres)
Two land types:
• Prime
• Marginal
Switchgrass Maturation Time
Land Use - 5
7
Established
in SwitchGrass
crop lifetime
In Other
Uses In
Transition
conv erting
to SGmaturing
rev erting
maturation time
net SG addition of acres
Land Use High Level Structure: Acres in: "other" uses, transition, switchgrass
Land Use
Calculates the amount of land that is being used for switchgrass
production (acres)
Crop Lifetime is calculated as a function of the economics of switchgrass compared to non-switchgrass land use as well as current
switchgrass yields
Crop Lifetime
Net SG Addition of Acres
Land in:
Other Uses
In Transition
In Switchgrass
Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG Land Reverting
Impact of SG economics on
Lifetime
Revenue ($/acre) ratio for established land
Switchgrass Maturation Time
Land Use - 6
8
Established
in SwitchGrass
crop lifetime
In Other
Uses In
Transition
conv erting
to SGmaturing
rev erting
maturation time
net SG addition of acres
Land Use High Level Structure: Acres in: "other" uses, transition, switchgrass
Land Use
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3
SG revenue per acre relative to other usesN
et
% G
row
th i
n S
G l
an
d p
er
year
Calculates the amount of land that is being used for switchgrass
production (acres)
Addition of SG acres is also a function of the net revenue for switchgrass vs. other
uses.
Crop Lifetime
Net SG Addition of Acres
Land in:
Other Uses
In Transition
In Switchgrass
Switchgrass Maturation Time
Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG Land Reverting
Land Use - 7
9
Land Allocation
The outcomes from this module are:
• Whether to plant land in switchgrass or other uses.
• Calculates the crop lifetime.
• Total Acres in Switchgrass
Acres in Switchgrass
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Feedstock Price
Crop Lifetime
Net addition of Switchgrass
Switchgrass Production (MM Acres)
The land owner decides whether to plant acres in switchgrass or other uses depending on the revenue earned per acre per crop.
$/acre Switchgrass vs. $/acre in other uses
Nominal SG Crop Lifetime
SG Maturation Time
Export Scenario
Constant SG Yield Option
Land Allocation -1
10
Land Allocation
The outcomes from this module are:
• Whether to plant land in switchgrass or other uses.
• Calculates the crop lifetime.
• Total Acres in Switchgrass
The expected revenue for land in switchgrass is a product of the payment to the farmer ($/ton) and the yield (tons/acre)
Crop Lifetime
Net addition of Switchgrass
Switchgrass Production (MM Acres)
Acres in Switchgrass
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Feedstock Price
Nominal SG Crop Lifetime
SG Maturation Time
Constant SG Yield Option
Land Allocation -2
11
Land Allocation
The outcomes from this module are:
• Whether to plant land in switchgrass or other uses.
• Calculates the crop lifetime.
• Total Acres in Switchgrass
The value of land in other uses is a function of the demand for product. More land in switchgrass will drive the price for product from land in
other uses higher due to land constraint issues. $0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
0 3 6 9 12 15
% of land in SG
Reven
ue (
$/a
cre
) o
f la
nd
no
t in
SG
Use
Flat Export Scenario (Prime Land) USDA Off Flat Export Scenario (Marginal Land) USDA Off
USDA Scenario (Prime Land) USDA On USDA Scenario (Marginal Land) USDA On
Crop Lifetime
Net addition of Switchgrass
Switchgrass Production (MM Acres)
Acres in Switchgrass
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Feedstock Price
Nominal SG Crop Lifetime
SG Maturation Time
Constant SG Yield Option
Land Allocation -3
12
Land Allocation
crop lif etime
YPA from ag R&D
expected y pa
SG rev per acre
rel to other uses
actual acres
in sg millions
f ull y eild weighting f actor
f eedstock rev per ton to f armer
feedstock price
Expected rev per acre SG
basis f or conv ersion rateRev Per Acre
Other Uses USDA Scenario
Total LandIn
Transition
Established
in SwitchGrass
PCT in Other Uses
PCT in Transition
PCT Established
Switchgrass
~
NETpct growth in SG land per y r
net SG addition of acres
~
impact of SC econ
on lif etime
max rev per acre
new sg or other use
nominal crop lif etime
avg YPA est landrev per acre est land
rev per acre ratio
f or established land
In Other
Uses
multiplier for early
SG establishment
maturation time
expected time in sg
xition y ield weighting f actor
Total Actual Million
Acres in SG
Const Feedstock Y ield Scenario
Assumed ConstYPA
USDA Export
ScenarioRev Per Acre
Other Uses Flat Export Scenario
Rev Per Acre
Other UsesLand growth Gain
Land Allocation Logic
Land Allocation -4
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
13
Agricultural R&D and Yield
The Yield from R&D is a function of the Investment made into the R&D
program.
Ag R&D Investment (MM$/yr) Switchgrass Yield from R&D
BSM has a maximum effective Ag R&D of 10-MM$/yr. Any amount over that will have no effect on R&D yields.
Fraction of Max YPA growth
Obtained
Ag Investment relative to Max
Ag R&D Investment (MM$/yr)
Year
R&D Yield Growth is analogous to historical corn yields; exponential for a time
period, then slowing to a linear growth rate
Ag R
&D
and Yield – 5
14
SOTA
YPA
initial YPA
exponential growth in YPA linear growth in y pa
xponential\linear
transition point
y ield rel to transition point
nominal max exponential
y pa growth rate
max exponential
y pa growth rate
nominal max linear y pa growth
max linear
y pa growthactual exponential
y pa growth rate
linear growth as
% of initial y pa
ag inv rel to max
~f rac of max y pa growth obtained
max AG inv estment rate millions~
Ag R&D inv estment mm $ per y r
Ag Research & Yield
Agricultural R&D and YieldA
g R&
D and Y
ield – 6
15
Biomass Production
Calculates the total Biomass Production for Ethanol
Ag & Forest Production
Switchgrass Land Dynamics
Total Switchgrass Acres
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Biomass Production
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Calculates the overall switchgrass yield (ton/acre) Biomass Production to
Industrial Capacity Module
Biom
ass Production - 7
16
Biomass Production
Calculates the total Biomass Production for Ethanol
The total switchgrass production (volume basis) is the sum of the production from land in transition to switchgrass + the production
from land established in switchgrass.
Production from land in transition is defined as the product of acreage
converting to SG and the yield based on ‘state of the art’ Ag research.
Production from established land is defined as the product of mature SG
acreage and the yield based on actual SG production.
Calculates the overall switchgrass yield (ton/acre)
Ag & Forest Production
Switchgrass Land Dynamics
Total Switchgrass Acres
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Biomass Production
Switchgrass
Yield (ton/acre)
Biomass Production to Industrial Capacity
Biom
ass Production - 8
17
Biomass Production
The overall YPA is the total tonnage produced annually divided by the total acreage in switchgrass.
Calculates the total Biomass Production for Ethanol
Calculates the overall switchgrass yield (ton/acre)
Ag & Forest Production
Switchgrass Land Dynamics
Total Switchgrass Acres
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Biomass Production
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Biomass Production to Industrial Capacity and Tracking Government Spending Modules
Biom
ass Production - 9
18
Biomass Production
Residue av ailable
YPA f rom ag R&D
SOTA
YPAdwell time f or translating SOTA
into SOTF
actual acres
in sg millions
multiplier f or early
SG establishment
Total Prodn
Est Land
Potential Total prodn
of Land in Transition
incoming y ield maturing 2 prodn outf lux f rom
rev ersion
reverting
maturation time
converting
to SG
actual prodn of
Land in Transition Total SG Prodn by LT
million ton per y ear
Total biomass Prodn
million tons per y r
Established
in SwitchGrass
av g YPA est land
potential SG prodn
Total SG Prodn by LT
million ton per year
ACTUAL av g y pa
Total Residue Collected
Milltion Tons per Year
Residue Collected
million tons
total sg prod'n mm t\y r
YPA Ov erallTotal Actual
Million Acres in SG
initial YPA
Biomass Production from switchgrass, Total biomass production
Old Residue Data023568140212249286286286286286
New Residue Data002784162185208224233240249258
Biom
ass Production - 10
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
19
Feedstock Price is Adjusted based on:
1. Ratio of Max Feedstock Supply to Demand2. Ratio of Spot Inventory to Actual Demand3. Responsiveness of Price to Change (Gain)
Feedstock PriceNumber of Plants On-
Line
Feedstock PriceFeedstock Supply
Feedstock Demand
Price Response to change (“gain”)
Max Mature Yield
Initial Feedstock Price = $20/bdt
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Feedstock P
rice -1
20
Feedstock Price
Determine an impact on the Feedstock Price due to the ratio:
Where Max Feedstock Demand is the sum of the capacity of all plants under const, starting up or online
FractionalChange in Feedstock
Price
Feedstock ProductionMax Feedstock Demand
Feedstock Price
Number of Plants On-Line
Feedstock Supply
Feedstock Demand
Price Response to change (“gain”)
Max Mature Yield
Initial Feedstock Price = $20/bdt
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Feedstock P
rice -2
Feedstock ProductionMax Feedstock Demand
21
Feedstock Price
Spot InventoryActual Feedstock Demand
FractionalChange in Feedstock
Price
Determine an impact on the Feedstock Price due to the ratio:
Where,
Spot Inventory is the difference in actual demand and production
Actual demand is the operating capacity (actual yield) of online plants
Spot InventoryActual Feedstock Demand Feedstock Price
Number of Plants On-Line
Feedstock Supply
Feedstock Demand
Price Response to change (“gain”)
Max Mature Yield
Initial Feedstock Price = $20/bdt
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Feedstock P
rice -3
22
Feedstock Price
Calculate the Change in Feedstock Price as:
Change in Feedstock Price = Old Feedstock Price x
Spot Inventory Ratio Factor x
Max Demand Ratio Factor x
Price Response to Change (0 to 2)
Feedstock Price
Number of Plants On-Line
Feedstock Supply
Feedstock Demand
Price Response to change (“gain”)
Max Mature Yield
Initial Feedstock Price = $20/bdt
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Feedstock P
rice -4
23
Feedstock Price
Starting
Up
Mature Plant Input
Capacity Tons per Day
OnLine
f ull util input cap
f eedstock price
Feed Stock Price chg f eedstock price initial f eedstock price
~
f rac change in f eedstock
price f rom supply demand
Total biomass Prodn
million tons per y r
supply demand ratio
industry input capacity
million ton per y ear
y early expedted f s demand
~
f rac change price f rom inv
Biomass Spot Inv entory
producing
y early expedted f s demand
Total biomass Prodn
million tons per y r
consuming
inv entory ratio
actual f s demand
f eedstock transport logic
low lev el f s demand exp industry input cap
f ull utilization t\d
Day s per Year Online
expected f s demand mm t\y
In Design&Cons
Const Feedstock Price Case
Assumed Feedstock Price
Feedstock Price Response Gain
Residue av ailable
low lev el prod'n when
residue switch is of f
Feedstock Price
Feedstock P
rice -5Actual STELLA
Module Flowsheet
24
Delivered Feedstock Cost
This module calculates the cost for feedstock at the plant gate.
• The plant gate feedstock cost is the largest operating cost for a conversion
facility
•The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) calculated from this cost is
compared to gasoline and dry mill selling prices
Feedstock Price
Feedstock Cost
Yield (ton/acre)
Individual plant feedstock capacity
The delivered feedstock cost is calculated in three sections:
• Feedstock Quantity in area of plant (distance from the plant)• Calculating the transportation charge and any options, and
• Adding the feedstock price and including any subsidy for the grower
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer
Fraction of SG in Surrounding land to plant
Free Captive Feedstock Option
Free Feedstock Option for Demo & Pioneer
Delivered F
eedstock Cost -6
25
Delivered Feedstock Cost
This module calculates the cost for feedstock at the plant gate.
plant input capacity
tons per day
Days per Year Online
Fraction Surround
Land in SW
Miles to Plant
acres per sq mi
YPA Overall
inputcapacityton
dayDay online
YPA overallton
acre acres
mi2
Fraction in surrounding( ) land( )
The distance from the feedstock to the plant gate is calculated by using the equation below; Where
the plant size is in the numerator and the denominator consists of the yield and the fraction
of the feedstock in the surrounding area of the plant.
Feedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Yield (ton/acre)
Individual plant feedstock capacity
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer
Fraction of SG in Surrounding land to plant
Free Captive Feedstock Option
Free Feedstock Option for Demo & Pioneer
Delivered F
eedstock Cost -7
26
Delivered Feedstock Cost
This module calculates the cost for feedstock at the plant gate.
feedstock transport
cost\ton
Feedstock
Captive
industry input
capacity ton per yr
Transport ChargeMiles to Plant
$ per ton mile
Winding Factor
Fixed Transport $ per ton
Feedstock Captive[Demo]
Feedstock Free[Demo]
Feedstock Market Price[Demo]
Special Feedstock Opportunities for Demonstration Scale Facilities
Transport Cost = ($/ton-mile * Winding Factor * Miles to Plant) + Fixed Transport
$/ton
The user has an option to allow feedstock quantities under 200,000
ton/yr to be free for a demo plant. This quantity is assumed to be the fiber that
comes along with the corn and is already accounted for in the price of
the delivered corn
Feedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Yield (ton/acre)
Individual plant feedstock capacity
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer
Fraction of SG in Surrounding land to plant
Free Captive Feedstock Option
Free Feedstock Option for Demo & Pioneer
Delivered F
eedstock Cost -8
27
Delivered Feedstock Cost
This module calculates the cost for feedstock at the plant gate.
subsidized
feedstock cost\ton
~
feedstock subs per ton
feedstock cost\ton
feedstock price
feedstock transport
cost\ton
Feedstock
Captive
Feedstock
Market Price
Feedstock
Free
industry input
capacity ton per yr
The delivered feedstock cost = Transportation cost + The cost to the grower – User inputted
feedstock subsidy
feedstoc…bs per ton
U
The user has the option to make feedstock quantities for demo and pioneer plants (< 2-million tons/yr)
free for the plant operator
Feedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Yield (ton/acre)
Individual plant feedstock capacity
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer
Fraction of SG in Surrounding land to plant
Free Captive Feedstock Option
Free Feedstock Option for Demo & Pioneer
Delivered F
eedstock Cost -9
28
Delivered Feedstock Cost
subsidized
f eedstock cost\ton
~
f eedstock subs per ton
f eedstock cost\ton
feedstock price
f eedstock transport
cost\ton
Feedstock
Captiv e
Feedstock
Market Price
Feedstock
Free
industry input
capacity ton per yr
plant input capacity
tons per day Transport Charge
Days per Year Online
Fraction Surround
Land in SW
Miles to Plant
acres per sq mi
$ per ton mile
YPA Overall
Winding Factor
Fixed Transport $ per ton
Delivered Feedstock Cost Main Page
Delivered F
eedstock Cost -10
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
29
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles
Each vehicle type is separated into three sub-fleets based on vehicle age.
The time in each sub-fleet is 1/3 of each vehicle type’s lifetime (time to retirement).
Fleet Growth Rate (%)
New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle
Average Miles to Retirement
Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
Retiring
Total Fleet Size
Fleet A & B size
Vehicle Influx Logic
Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Influx, Turnover and R
etrofit -1
User has option to choose between ‘Baseline’ and Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Fleet Assumptions
30
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles
Fleet Growth Rate (%)
New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle
Average Miles to Retirement
Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
Retiring
Total Fleet Size
Fleet A & B size
Vehicle Influx Logic
Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
New Vehicle Influx Vehicle Influx Logic = total Vehicle influx * influx
distribution [Type]
Total Vehicle Influx = influx for fleet growth + influx to replace retirement
Influx for Fleet Growth = Total Fleet * Fleet Growth Rate
(%)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
% G
row
th
UCS Fleet Growth Rate Baseline Fleet Growth Rate
Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Distribution
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
%
UCS New CG Car Baseline New CG Car
UCS New CG Truck Baseline New CG Truck
Influx, Turnover and R
etrofit -2
31
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles
Fleet Growth Rate (%)
New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle
Average Miles to Retirement
Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
Retiring
Total Fleet Size
Fleet A & B size
Vehicle Influx Logic
Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Vehicle Turnover
The time to retirement for vehicles = average miles to retirement
average miles per vehicle per year.
There is an option to double the turnover rate, thereby reducing the time to retirement by a factor of two.
Flex-Fuel Vehicle Annual Mileage
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
UCS New FF Truck Baseline New FF Truck
UCS New FF Car Baseline New FF Car
Influx, Turnover and R
etrofit -3
32
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles
Fleet Growth Rate (%)
New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle
Average Miles to Retirement
Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
Retiring
Total Fleet Size
Fleet A & B size
Vehicle Influx Logic
Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Vehicle Retrofitting
Retrofitting is the act of modifying conventional gasoline vehicles to become a flex-fuel vehicles
The fraction of fleet vehicles retrofitted per year drives this module.
Vehicle in Fleets A & B can be retrofitted
Influx, Turnover and R
etrofit -4
33
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
time to retirement
vehicle influx logictotal vehicle influx
influx distribution
fleet
accelerate vehicle turnover?
accelerated turnover multiplier
retiring rollup retiring influx to replace retirement
total fleet influx for fleet growth
frac fleet retrofitted per year
total retrofittingtotal retrofittable
Fleet A
Fleet B~
frac retrofitting from B
~
frac retrofitting from A
retrofitting A logic
retrofitting
from B or C
retrofitting B logic
retrofitting C logic
fleet growth rate %
retrofittable coeffs
influx distribution
% by vehicle type
avg miles to retirement
avg mi\vehicle\year for fleet
Influx, Turnover, Retrofit Logic
Main Page
Influx, Turnover and R
etrofit -5Actual STELLA
Module Flowsheet
34
Fleet Size and Vehicle Efficiency Tracking
This module tracks the number of vehicles and the efficiency of vehicles of each fuel type.
There is a complimentary module to calculate the total fleet and both the average and aggregate efficiency of
each vehicle type
Flex Fuel Cars
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Fleet A Fleet B Fleet C
Flex-Fuel Cars Efficiency
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Mile
s pe
r G
allo
n
Fleet A Fleet B Fleet C
Fleet EfficienciesFleet Volumes
Efficiency of incoming vehicles (mpg)
Vehicle Influx Logic
Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Fleet Size
Average Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)
Retiring
Total Fleet Size
Fleet A & B size
Fleet S
ize & V
ehicle Efficiency -6
35
Fleet Size and Vehicle Efficiency Tracking
Fleet A Fleet B Fleet C
fleet influx
A to B B to C retiring
time to retirement
fleetFleet A
Fleet B
Fleet C
total fleet
vehicle influx logic
FleetEffA FleetEffB FleetEffC
eff in
eff A to B eff B to C eff out
avg Eff A
avg Eff B
avg Eff C
fleet influx
FleetEffA
FleetEffB
FleetEffC
total efficiency by fuel type
avg efficiency by vehicle type
total efficiencyavg efficiency
fleet A
retrofitting
fleet B
retrofitting
fleet C
retrofitting
eff sw A
retrofit eff sw B
retrofit
eff sw C
retrofit
retrofitting A logic
retrofitting B logic retrofitting C logic
efficiency of incoming vehicles
Structure for calculating total fleet, avg efficiency (both by fuel type and in aggregate)
Structure for tracking number of vehicles and efficiency of vehicles by fuel type
Main Page
Fleet S
ize & V
ehicle Efficiency -7
36
Fuel Consumption Logic
This module calculates the potential ethanol demand for total, E85 and E10 vehicles
•The total demand is compared to the total current production in the Plant Addition Logic
module to measure the attractiveness for investors to build additional plants
•There are also calculations for E85 and E10 potential
Fleet Size
Average Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)
Maximum Potential EtOH Consumption (MM-gal/yr)
To: Plant Addition Logic Module
Average miles/yr per vehicle
Fuel C
onsumption -8
37
Fuel Consumption Logic
This module calculates the potential ethanol demand for total, E85 and E10 vehicles
•The total demand is compared to the total current production in the Plant Addition Logic
module to measure the attractiveness for investors to build additional plants
Fleet Size
Average Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)
Maximum Potential EtOH Consumption (MM-gal/yr)
output cap million gal per yr
P EtOH E85 FF mm
f rac of E10 market f illedpotential EtOH as
E10 consn mm gal
f rac of E85 market f illed
The module on the right calculates the fraction of the E85 and E10 markets filled by actual ethanol production.
Average miles/yr per vehicle
Fuel C
onsumption -9
38
Fuel Consumption Logic
potential EtOH as
E10 consn mm gal
fleet
avg efficiency by vehicle type
avg mi\vehicle\year for fleet
vehicle miles\yr by veh type
total fuel consn by veh
type gasoline equivalent
potential E10 consumption
by veh type
E10 Coefficient
potential E85 consn by FFVx
E85 Coefficient
potential EtOH
consn in E85
potential EtOH
consumption from E10
total fuel consn gasoline eq
potential EtOH consn E10 CG
potential EtOH consn E85 FF
potential EtOH consumption
E10 from FF vehicles
gasoline coeffs
ffv coefficients
BTU\gal gasoline
BTU\gal ethanol
total potential EtOH
consumption as E10 P EtOH E10 FF mm P EtOH E85 FF mm
max potential etOH consn mm
Total EtOH Pot MMgal
Total Fuel Demand
Million Gallons per Year
Fuel Consumption Logic Main Page
output cap million gal per yr
P EtOH E85 FF mm
frac of E10 market filledpotential EtOH as
E10 consn mm gal
frac of E85 market filled
Fuel C
onsumption -10
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet