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Kauplemine

Oliver Ait ja Joel Kukemelkaprill 2007

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Kauplemise põhivead (1)

Liiga suured panused…

“I'm making big bets on one or two stocks because if I'm right, I'll make a lot of money, but if I'm wrong, I'll be in real trouble.”

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Kauplemise põhivead (2)

Stop-lossi leebe kasutamine!

“When my trade goes against me, I'm afraid to sell for a loss because I might be selling at the bottom, and the stock will take off without me. But sometimes the stock keeps falling to a point that I can't afford to take the loss.”

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Kauplemise põhivead (3)

Riski-tulu suhe peab olema atraktiivne. Keeruline põhjendada tehingu õigsust, kui suhtarv 1st väiksem.

Paikapandud hinnasiht on oluline!

Risk/reward ratio 1:1 000 000??!

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Kauplemise põhivead (4)

Liiga vähe infot…liiga palju kõhutunnet.

Peaaegu alati on keegi, kel on toimuva liikumise kohta rohkem infot.

Välja peaksime jõudma…

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Interaktiivne kauplemine

Interaktiivne info ühildamine sellega, mille kohta on juba eeltöö ära tehtud.

Seoste loomine, ettevõtte tegevust mõjutavate tegurite, konkurentide tundmine.

Konkreetne näide…

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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC

Tulemused ja CC 19. jaanuaril kell 9 ET Mida me enne tulemusi peame teadma?

1. Sektori trend, ootused2. Kas tahame sektorist osta või müüa?3. Sektori ettevõtted ja nende iseärasused4. Tehniline pilt

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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC

Paar päeva enne CC-d nafta hind langes, OIH tõusis.

1. Ootused olid madalad2. Otsime ostu võimalust3. Seosed…4. Tehniline pilt ostuks sobiv

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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC

Ootused madalad

SLB enne CC-d ehk 18.01.07

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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC

„We have every confidence in the deepwater!”

„New rigs start to come out from the shipyards in 2008 and 2009!”

“The world is realizing that the period of cheap hydrocarbon energy has ended and new and higher sustained levels of investment are necessary to meet demand and guarantee future supplies.”RIG, DRQ, DO, FTI, NE,

CAM…

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Schlumberger (SLB)

19.01.07 - Avanemine eelmise päeva tippudel!

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Transocean (RIG)

Avanemine: 74.54 Siht: 75.8Stop-loss: 74.1 Risk/reward 1:2.8

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Dril Quip (DRQ)18.01 – 19.01

Avanemine: 35.54 Stop-loss: 34.9 Siht: 36.4 Risk/reward 1:1.4

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FMC Technologies (FTI)

Avanemine: 57.35 Stop-loss: 56.6 Siht: 58.8 Risk/reward 1:2

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AAPL - PALM ja RIMM

09.01.07

Nõrkus hoolimata sellest, et AAPL langes…

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Apple (AAPL) – 09.01.07

12.20 ET - Jobs: “We 're only talking about the mac today“

12.43 ET - Apple Computer introduces mobile phone

12.44 ET - Apple Computer: Also introduces widescreen iPod and internet communicator

12.44 ET - Apple Computer says Iphone is widescreen iPod and phone

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Research in Motion (RIMM)

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Apple saaga jätkub:

22. märts uudis: Prudential survey checks indicate upcoming Apple

iPhone will likely use an OLED display from Samsung-SDI

Prudential notes that their checks indicate that the upcoming Apple iPhone will likely use an OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) display from Samsung-SDI. Firm thinks OLEDs could cannibalize, if not ultimately replace LCD displays in notebooks PCs, desktop PC monitors, cellphones and even TVs. With thinner displays and better power dissipation, mobile handset and notebook PC markets are candidates for mass adoption - so the OLED opportunity appears compelling. Firm says the industry is still climbing down the manufacturing yield curve, and mass market adoption is likely several years away. Firm believes OLEDs are a disruptive technology, and investors should have it on their radar screen.

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Universal Display Corporation (PANL) Universal Display Corporation engages in the research,

development, and commercialization of organic light emitting diode (OLED) technologies for use in various flat panel display and other applications. Mcap 528m, Käive 12m, short 18.5%.

10-K: 2006, three manufacturers purchased our proprietary OLED materials for use in commercial OLED display products: Samsung SDI Co., Ltd. of South Korea, AU Optronics Corporation of Taiwan and Tohoku Pioneer Corporation of Japan.

In addition, we are working with many other companies who are evaluating our OLED technologies and materials for possible use in commercial OLED display and lighting products, including Seiko Epson Corporation, Konica Minolta Technology Center, Inc. and Sony Corporation.

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Medtronic (MDT) ja Greatbatch (GB)SITUATSIOON: 21. november MDT kvartalitulemused: Medtronic beats by $0.03 : Reports Q2

(Oct) earnings of $0.59 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.56; revenues rose 11.2% year/year to $3.08 bln vs the $2.97 bln consensus. Co reports I.C.D. revs of $764 mln, up 4% YoY.

Conference Call: Expects U.S. ICD market to rebound with a chance to return to double digit growth rates in 2008

Prognoos: says growth profile was hurt by a slowdown in the US ICD market; anticipates continues growth; says reiterating $12.2-12.6 bln rev growth as is still reasonable as they believe ICD market will continue to grow 'although slowly'; believe Y08 revs of $13.7-14.0 bln remains reasonable, Reuters consensus is $13.7 bln; Y08 EPS $2.65-2.70, Reuters consensus is $2.67

Võeti turuosa konkurendilt Boston Scientific (BSX)

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Võimalus:

Tulemused olid üllatavad kogu sektori jaoks. Ootused madalad ning ICD turu paranemine ilmselgelt avas paljude investorite/kauplejate silmad.

Buy Greatbatch (GB). Mcap 560m, käive 271m. Short % 10. Tegevusala: Südamerütmurite patareide/komponentide arendamine ja tootmine.

Suuremate klientide hulka kuuluvad suured tootjad nagu Guidant (GDT), St. Jude Medical (STJ), Medtronic (MDT), Biotronik, Cyberonics (CYBX). 2005. aastal moodustasid Guidant, St. Jude Medical ja Medtronic kokku 70% ettevõtte kogukäibest.

Sõltuvus ICD turust ning varasem korrelatsioon suurtootjatega. Madalad ootused ja vähetuntud ettevõte.

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LAM Research Corp. (LRCX) LRCX (Mcap 6.5B, käive 2.2B, Tegevusala: Semiconductor

Equipment & Materials). Tulemused 17. jaanuaril: On conf call, co guides MarQ to revs of $635-650 mln vs $638 mln consensus; EPS to $1.03-1.07 vs 1.14 consensus. Co notes pushouts in the March qtr. For the full yr, co guides 2007 EPS to 4.10-4.30 vs 4.47 consensus...

Kommentaar: Cowen notes that LRCX shipments were lower than anticipated as some customers are pushing out deliveries from March to June or beyond. Though it well may be a short-term pause, they think LRCX likely to get hit hard on commentary.

Firm thinks AMAT (25B mcap), KLAC (11B mcap), and NVLS (4B mcap) on front-end are likely to be impacted a bit too. They note that LRCX margins under a little pressure…

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Protsess:

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Võimalused:

Advanced Energy (AEIS, Mcap <1B, käive 410m) supplies sub-components to manage power, flow, and temperature for capital equipment used in the production of semiconductors and other related end markets such as data storage and flat panel displays.

10 - K: Our products are sold worldwide to more than 100 OEMs and directly to more than 500 end users. Our ten largest customers accounted for 63%, 57% and 60% of our sales in 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively.

Applied Materials, our largest customer, accounted for 30%, 23% and 28% of our sales in 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively.

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Lisaks MKSI (Applied Materials accounted for approximately 18%, 20% and 18% of our net sales for the years ended December 31, 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively)

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Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT – Mcap 372,7m, käive 337m) provides gas and liquid delivery systems used by the chip equipment makers such as AMAT, LRCX and NVLS.

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Hewlett Packard (HPQ)

HPQ tugevad tulemused 20. veebruaril. Hewlett-Packard beats by $0.03, beats on revs, guides Q2 revs above consensus, ups Y07 rev guidance, guides Y07 EPS above consensus: Co issues upside revenue guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.63-0.64 vs. $0.63 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $24.5 bln vs. $24.1 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $2.60-2.65 vs. $2.56 consensus; sees FY07 revs of $98-99 bln, up from previous guidance of $97 mln, vs. $97.45 bln consensus.

Põhjused: tugev sülearvutite müük. The company benefited from strong momentum in the IPG and PSG segments as sales of notebooks and printers drove the quarter.

While they are impressed by the gains in the PSG segment, as the share gains have come mostly at the expense of Dell. HP has also been able to maintain relatively stable pricing while it gains share. CFO says there will be an increase in margins due to supply corrections, and for the year, they don't see any significant changes that will affect margins.

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Tugev sülearvutite müük võib hästi mõjuda komponentidetootjatele, eriti kui HPQ marginaalid

sarnase hinnapoliitika juures ei kasvanud. Võimalused? O2MICRO (OIIM) (toodab energiamuundureid LCD ekraanide

valgustamiseks, ühendusi arvuti erinevate komponentide vahel). Mcap 298m, käive 124m. Our integrated circuits have been incorporated into products sold by Acer, Apple Computer, Dell, Fujitsu, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo, LG Electronics, NEC, Samsung Electronics, Sharp, Sony and Toshiba, among others.

Sanmina (SANM) (toodab (kaabli)ühendusi, mälumooduleid, lüliteid, sulgureid). Mcap 1.9B, Käive 10.9B, Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 60.8% of our fiscal 2006 net sales, 63.9% of our fiscal 2005 net sales and 69.3% of our fiscal 2004 net sales. For fiscal 2006, three customers, IBM, Lenovo and HP, accounted for greater than 10% of our net sales at 12.8%, 10.5% and 10.0%, respectively. For fiscal 2005, only one customer, IBM, accounted for greater than 10% of our net sales at 23.2%.

Synaptics (SYNA) – touchpads. Mcap 612m, käive 215m, Klientideks Acer, Asustek, Dell, ECS, Fujitsu, Gateway, IBM. HPQ, Lenovo, NEC, Samsung, Philips, Toshiba jne.

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Sirf Tech (SIRF) tulemused 30. jaanuaril. SiRF Technology beats by $0.03, revs above consensus: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.28 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 36.7% year/year to $74.2 mln vs the $69.9 mln consensus. SIRF reports gross margin 55.3% vs ~54.4% street expectation. SiRF Technology on call sees Q1 EPS of $0.20-$0.23 vs $0.20 consensus, sees revs of $65-$68 mln vs $65.03 mln consenus. Co also sees FY07 revs of $320-$330 mln vs $305.4 mln consensus.

Oodati suhteliselt head kvartalit, pigem tagasihoidlikku prognoosi ning Motorola kehvad tulemused on aktsiale halvasti mõjunud. Üllatus tugevate prognooside osas oli siiski päris suur. Võimalused?

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Seosed:

SIRF: marketing of semiconductor and software products that are designed to enable location-awareness utilizing global positioning system (GPS). Mcap 1.5B, Käive 247m. During 2006, the following customers represented 10% or more of our net revenue: Promate, Garmin and Gateway/Foretek.

Garmin (GRMN): design, manufacture, and marketing of navigation, communications, and information devices that are enabled by global positioning system (GPS). Mcap 11.8B, käive 1.77B, short 10%.

NAVTEQ (NVT) engages in the creation, updating, enhancing, licensing, and distribution of digital map database in North America and Europe. It provides digital map information, and related software and services. Garmin on NVT klient (15%, käibest). Mcap 3B, Käive 582m, short 5%.

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