1 john kriendler professor of nato and european security issues george c. marshall european center...
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John KriendlerProfessor of NATO and European Security IssuesGeorge C. Marshall European Center for Security
IssuesNATO Wide Executive Development Program
14 January 2013
John KriendlerProfessor of NATO and European Security IssuesGeorge C. Marshall European Center for Security
IssuesNATO Wide Executive Development Program
14 January 2013
NATO: Key Issues at Chicago and Beyond
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OverviewOverview
• Chicago• Collective Defense• Afghanistan• Smart Defense• Partnership• Missile Defense• NATO-Russia• Nuclear Policy• Enlargement• US engagement• Conclusions
• Chicago• Collective Defense• Afghanistan• Smart Defense• Partnership• Missile Defense• NATO-Russia• Nuclear Policy• Enlargement• US engagement• Conclusions
“New Improved NATO”
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Chicago SummitChicago Summit
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Collective DefenseCollective Defense
ARTICLE 5“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more . . . shall be considered an attack against them all and . . . each of them . . will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking . . . such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. ”
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OperationsOperations
NATO Support to the African Union
ISAF
Support to EU Operation ALTHEA
KFOR
Balkans Defense Reform
ACTIVE ENDEAVOR
Air Policing
NATO Training
Mission - Iraq
Ocean Shield
CAUTION: CHART SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR NAVIGATION
UNIFIED PROTECTOR
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AfghanistanAfghanistan
Flight from Kabul to Jalalabad, 17 Dec. 2011
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2011 Defense budget as % of GDP
2011 Defense budget as % of GDP
Country % of GDP
Albania 1.5
Belgium 1.1
Bulgaria 1.4
Canada 1.4
Croatia 1.5
Czech Rep. 1.1
Denmark 1.4
Estonia 1.7
France 1.9
Germany 1.4
Greece 2.1
Hungary 1.0
Italy 1.4
Latvia 1.0
Country % of GDP
Lithuania 0.8
Luxembourg 0.5
Netherlands 1.3
Norway 1.5
Poland 1.7
Portugal 1.5
Romania 1.3
Slovakia 1.1
Slovenia 1.3
Spain 0.9
Turkey 1.9
UK 2.6
US 4.8
Source: NATODPP DivisionCaveat: As allies include different items in their defense budgets, these figures are not strictly comparable.
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Smart DefenseSmart Defense
• Consult• Prioritize• Cooperate• Deepen connections• Maintain strong defense industry,
transatlantic cooperation• NATO Forces 2020
o Retain capabilities for core taskso Modern, tightly connected, equipped, trained,
exercised and commanded to operate together
• Consult• Prioritize• Cooperate• Deepen connections• Maintain strong defense industry,
transatlantic cooperation• NATO Forces 2020
o Retain capabilities for core taskso Modern, tightly connected, equipped, trained,
exercised and commanded to operate together
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PartnershipPartnership
NATO - Ukraine (28+1)UKR
BEL BGR CAN
LUX
LVASVKROUPRTPOLLTU
NLD
NOR
SVN
ESP
TUR
GBR
USA
NATO - EU (34)
AUT
SWE
CYP
FIN
IRL
MLT
ISR
DZA EGY
JOR MRT
MAR TUNMediterranean Dialogue (28+7)
BHR
AREKWT
QAT
IstanbulCooperation
Initiative (28+4)
RUS
NATO - Russia (29)
CZE DNK EST
FRA
DEU
GRC
HUN
ITA
ICE
FIN SWE AUT MLT
CHE
ALB
IRE BLR
BIH KAZ MKD ARM
KGZ AZE GEO UZB
MDA UKR RUS
HRV
TJK TKM MNE SRB
EAPC (50)
NATO (28)
GEO
NATO - Georgia (28+1)
Global Partners
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Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD)
Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD)
• Strategic Concepto Develop capability “to
defend our populations and territories against ballistic missile attack as a core element of our collective defense.”
o “actively seek cooperation on missile defense with Russia and other Euro-Atlantic partners.”
• Chicagoo Interim BMD capabilityo If threat reduced, adapto Remain committed to
cooperation with Russia
• Strategic Concepto Develop capability “to
defend our populations and territories against ballistic missile attack as a core element of our collective defense.”
o “actively seek cooperation on missile defense with Russia and other Euro-Atlantic partners.”
• Chicagoo Interim BMD capabilityo If threat reduced, adapto Remain committed to
cooperation with Russia
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NATO-RussiaNATO-Russia
• Permanent Joint Council (PJC) 1997
• NATO-Russia Council (NRC) 2002
• Russo-Georgian War (2008)
• Strategic Concepto Strategic
importance/partnershipo Enhance cooperation on
missile defence, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics, counter-piracy and promotion of wider international security.
• Chicagoo No Putino “True strategic partnership”o Difference s and common
interests
• Permanent Joint Council (PJC) 1997
• NATO-Russia Council (NRC) 2002
• Russo-Georgian War (2008)
• Strategic Concepto Strategic
importance/partnershipo Enhance cooperation on
missile defence, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics, counter-piracy and promotion of wider international security.
• Chicagoo No Putino “True strategic partnership”o Difference s and common
interests
The Russian cruiser “Moskva” (forefront) training with NATO ships in the Ionian Sea, 14 February 2006
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• NATO nuclear policy: main elementso Strategic nuclear forceso Sub-strategic nuclear
weaponso Burden sharing
• Debateo Global zeroo US weapons in Europe: pros and conso Russian “tactical” nuclear weaponso Declaratory policy
• Implementing Chicago decisions
• NATO nuclear policy: main elementso Strategic nuclear forceso Sub-strategic nuclear
weaponso Burden sharing
• Debateo Global zeroo US weapons in Europe: pros and conso Russian “tactical” nuclear weaponso Declaratory policy
• Implementing Chicago decisions
Nuclear PolicyNuclear Policy
B 61, three views
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Theater Nuclear Weapons (TNW)
Theater Nuclear Weapons (TNW)
• Currentlyo 200 B61 gravitybombs o Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkeyo DCA: Tornados, F 16s
• Planned upgradeo B61-12 precision guided gravity bombs deliveredby F-35’s
• Currentlyo 200 B61 gravitybombs o Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkeyo DCA: Tornados, F 16s
• Planned upgradeo B61-12 precision guided gravity bombs deliveredby F-35’s
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ARTICLE 10: ...by unanimous agreement, may invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area ...
Enlargement
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U.S. and NATOU.S. and NATO
Center for European Reform: “All Alone? What US retrenchment means for Europe and NATO”
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ConclusionsConclusions
• Progress• Issues continue
to evolve.• Adaptability• NATO’s future
• Progress• Issues continue
to evolve.• Adaptability• NATO’s future
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent; it is the one that is most adaptable to change."
Charles Robert Darwin (1809-82)
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Questions/CommentsQuestions/Comments
Smarter Defense Funding?
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Back Up slidesBack Up slides
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Emerging Security Challenges
Emerging Security Challenges
• Piracy• Cyber• WMD proliferation• Terrorism• Energy• Environmental and resource constraints• Ballistic missile proliferation
• Piracy• Cyber• WMD proliferation• Terrorism• Energy• Environmental and resource constraints• Ballistic missile proliferation
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NATO, ISAF: Public SupportNATO, ISAF: Public Support
• Public support
• Publics do not perceive security threats
• Strong support for NATO
• Support to maintain defense budgets
• ISAF: majorities want reduced troop levels or withdrawal
• Public support
• Publics do not perceive security threats
• Strong support for NATO
• Support to maintain defense budgets
• ISAF: majorities want reduced troop levels or withdrawal
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NATO’s FutureNATO’s Future
• “It depends”• Exogenous and endogenous
o Security environmento Global economyo Global governanceo Climate changeo Operational successo Solidarity/Commitmento Defense spendingo TA relations
• “It depends”• Exogenous and endogenous
o Security environmento Global economyo Global governanceo Climate changeo Operational successo Solidarity/Commitmento Defense spendingo TA relations