1 jesse jenkins (rnp) november 7th, 2006 northwest energy: a look at the past, present and future of...
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Jesse Jenkins (RNP)November 7th, 2006
Northwest Energy: A Look at the Past, Present and Future of Electricity Generation in the Pacific
Northwest
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OverviewI. Introduction
II. Past: where we’re coming from
II. Present: where we’re at
III. Future: where do we want to go?
IV. Conclusions
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I. Introduction
• Me–recent UO graduate (class of ‘06)
– now work for the Renewable Northwest Project in Portland (policy research associate)
• Renewable Northwest Project (RNP)– founded in 1994
– unique coalition of, consultants, developers, consumer & environmental groups, etc.
– seek responsible development of renewable energy in the Pacific Northwest.
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Historical Northwest Electricity Capacity by Resource
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
Year
Operating Capacity (MW)
Petroleum / Petr. Coke
Biomass
Nuclear
Wind (and other renewables)
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro
II. The Past: a Brief History of Northwest Electricity Generation
Growth met with new Coal - 1970s-90s
Growth met with new NG - 1990s-2000s
Growth met with new Hydro - 1890s-1970s
False start with Nukes - 1970s-80sEnergy Conservation!(NW Power Act - 1980)
Date source: NW Power and Conservation Council (http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powersupply/existingprojects.xls)
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II. The Present:PACIFIC NORTHWEST GENERATING
CAPABILITY
Petroleum & Pet Coke
0%
Coal20%
Hydro
Biomass
Wind2%
Nuclear3%
Natural gas
NorthwestPower andConservationCouncilNorthwestPower andConservationCouncil
Average water & maximum thermal plant availability. September 2006
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- Abundant resources - >1,386 MW currently serving NW Load
Source: RNP (http://www.rnp.org/Projects/projectlist.php)
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III. The Future: Demand Continues to Grow
Source: NWPCC 5th Power Plan (vol. 2), p. 2-4
?
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III. The Future: Coal?
• Coal: – Cheap
– Relatively abundant
– Dirty!
• Utilities love their coal: – cheap baseload (reliable) power
– (For the most part) don’t have to pay for public health costs
– 150+ coal plants proposed in the West…
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Over 150 Coal-fired Power Plants Proposed in the West
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Pacific Mountain
Lower Columbia
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• Coal is a risk for everyone:– cheap now, but fuel costs already rising:
up 20% from ‘03-’05.
– Investments in coal now will cost customers later.
– Increasing environmental regulations
– Carbon restrictions coming soon…
• Regional regulations: CA and Northeast• Industry asking Congress to limit carbon emissions - want certainty
• Only a matter of time now
– Invest in coal = export NW jobs and $$$ to MT, WY for fuel
– Moral issue: people in MT, WY bare environmental costs of mining and power plant pollution for our power consumption
III. The Future: Coal = Risky Business
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III. The Future: Natural Gas?
• Natural Gas:– Low capital (upfront) costs
– High fuel costs
– Cleaner than coal
– Natural gas prices very volatile
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0123456789
10111213
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Nominal $/MMBtu (Henry Hub)
012345678910111213
Nominal $/MMBtu (Henry Hub)
Source: LBNL
NYMEXnatural gas futures strip
from 09/13/2005
Daily price history of 1st-nearbyNYMEX natural gas futures contract
U.S. Historic Natural Gas Prices(Volatile and Unpredictable)
III. The Future: Natural Gas?
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• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG):– Imported from Indonesia, Qatar,
Iran, Russia, etc.– More dependence on foreign
fossil fuels– Exporting $$$ overseas– Potential security risk
(terminals and tankers)– Several LNG terminals
proposed for Northwest…
III. The Future: Liquefied Natural Gas
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• NW has abundant renewable energy potential:– Western Governor’s Association -
developable potential by 2015:• Wind: 2,310-7,735 MW
(693-2,321 aMW)
• Solar: 325-500 MW (71.5-111 aMW)
• Geothermal: 1,290 MW (1,187 aMW)
• Total: 3,925-9,525 MW (1,951-3,617 aMW)
• 72% of 5,000 aMW forecasted growth by 2025
III. The Future: Renewables?
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• Expected demand growth by 2025: 5,000 aMW
• Conservation and Efficiency: 2,800 aMW (NWPCC)
• Renewables: ~2,000-3,600 aMW (WGA)• Total: 4,800-6,400 aMW • So who needs coal or natural gas?
III. The Future: Conservation + Renewables =
More than Enough
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Provides power at stable, predictable price for many years
- (Fossil fuel prices volatile & unpredictable.) Helps fight global warming: no/low emissions, offsets fossil fuels
Economic Development: it creates jobs & tax revenue
Domestic resources: Keep jobs and $ local instead of sending elsewhere to buy their fuels (e.g.. coal from WY, gas from Canada).
III. The Future: Benefits of Renewables
Minimal water use
Public Health Benefits Doesn’t have air & water pollution impacts of fossil fuels Customers want it: PGE poll: 75% customers want RE and efficiency, <10% want coal.
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• Coal?
• Natural Gas?
• Conservation + Renewables?
• It’s our energy future: what do we want it to look like?
III. The Future: So Where Do We Want to Go?
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A Clean Energy Future is Possible:It’s up to us to make it happen!
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Policy Solutions
• Renewable Energy Standard / Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)• Purpose
– have electric utilities gradually increase amount of new RE in electricity supply to certain % by certain year.
– Gov. Kulongoski: 25% by 2025 proposed for Oregon
– Washington ballot initiative (I-937): 15% by 2020
– Create a stable market for renewables, encourage siting of domestic manufacturing, create jobs, economic development, health benefits
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20 States Have RPS Policies
WI: 10% by 2015
TX: 5880 MW by 2015
*NJ: 24% by 2021
CT: 10% by 2010
ME: 30% by 2000
*NM: 10% by 2011
CA:20%
by 2017 (2)
*AZ: 15% by 2025
*NV: 20% by 2015
MT: 15% by 2015 MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010;10% goal by 2015
RI: 15% by 2020
*PA: 18%¹ by 2020
*DE: 10% by 2019
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
*DC: 11% by 2022
State RPS
Goal
MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase
NY: 24% by 2013
HI: 20% by 2020
*CO: 10% by 2015
*Minimum requirement and/or increased credit for solar¹ PA: 8% Tier I, 10% Tier II (includes non-renewable sources)2 CA: 33% by 2020 under review
IA: 105 MW
Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council. www.dsireusa.org, July 2006
IL: 8% by 2013
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Policy Solutions
• Incentives– Public health, energy security and economic
development benefits of renewables all warrant incentives
– Federal Production Tax Credit is biggest factor– State incentives too (OR and WA offer strong package
of incentives)
• Environmental Regulations / Carbon Cap– Stricter environmental regulations force polluters to
pay– Renewables have no emissions so more competitive– Cost of carbon needs to be included (carbon cap or tax)