1 item 4: long time series when major changes occur recalculation of the russian gdp series due to...
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Item 4: Long time series when major changes occur
Recalculation of the Russian GDP Series due to Introduction of New Classifications
Irina MasakovaRosstat
Joint UNECE / Eurostat / OECD Meeting on National Accounts(Geneva, 25 - 28 April 2006)
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Main issues
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
OKONKh: previously used classification (institutional industries)
OKVED: new classification (kinds of economic activity)
Changes in the accounting standards and regulations
Matrix approach to recalculation of the GDP series
Main results of the GDP series revision
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Classification OKONKh
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
Russian classification of the industries of the economy - OKONKH:
grouping by kinds of activities of different character
accounting unit – establishment of the enterprise realizing an homogenous activity
800 kinds of activity
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Classification OKVED
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
Russian Classification of Kinds of Economic Activity– OKVED:
Similar to NACE
category – kind of economic activity
1800 kinds of activity
in force since January 1, 2003; 2003-2004 – the transition period; data collected by two classifications (OKONKh and OKVED)
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An enterprise in the framework of OKONKh
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
Metallurgy plant
Green-houses
Mining of ferrous metal ores
Rolled metal
production
Metal blocks
product-ion
Metal ware product-
ion
Bakery Construct-ion unit
Agri-culture Industry
Construc-tion
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Comparison of OKONKh and OKVED
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
OKONKh
Stand alone boilers
Production of ferrous metals
Steel pipes
Underground mining of
ferrous metal ores
Coking industry
Metal blocks
production
Electric power
Ferrous metallurgy
Production of light
metal ware
Machine-building and metal processing
OKVED
Industry
Е - Electricity, gas, water: production and
distribution
Non-metallic construction
materials
Construction materials
CB Mining exclusive of fuels
С - Mining
DJ
Metal production and finished metal goods
DF Production of coke, oil
products and nuclear
materials
D – Manufacturing
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Changes in the accounting standards and regulations
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
1. Resolution on the composition of production costs
2. Tax Code
3. New definition of the main kind of activity
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Matrix approach (1)
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
А – volume of shipments
B – changes in inventories of finished goods
C – changes in unfinished production
D – raw materials for tolling
E – subsidies on production
F – taxes on production
X – output of the industry
For each А, …, Х a matrix is constructed
Institutional industry
Pure industry
X = A + B + C + D – E + F
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Matrix approach (2)
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
А
BC
D
X
150 300
100
250
Output by institutional industries
Output by pure industries
Enterprise statistics
Correction matrix
Alternative data sources
+50
+150
150
400
200 450
X’
Output matrix
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Matrix approach (3)
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
Gross Value Added Calculation
GVA – gross value added
IC – intermediate consumption
IC_ratio – ratio of intermediate consumption to gross output
IC = X’ * IC_ratio
GVA = X’ - IC
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Matrix approach (4)
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
X СA
0/1
X CB
0/1
X CC
0/1
X CD
0/1
X CE
0/1
X EA
0/1
X EB
0/1
X EC
0/1 X ED
0/1
X EE
0/1
X AA
0/1
X AC
0/1
X AD
0/1
X AE
0/1
X AB
0/1
X AA
0/1
X AC
0/1
X AD
0/1
X AE
0/1
X AB
0/1
+ =
X BA
0/1
X BB
0/1
X BC
0/1
X BD
0/1
X BE
0/1
X DA
0/1
X DB
0/1
X DC
0/1
X DD
0/1
X DE
0/1
X DA
0/1
X DB
0/1
X DC
0/1
X DD
0/1
X DE
0/1
X BA
0/1
X BB
0/1
X BC
0/1
X BD
0/1
X BE
0/1
X СA
0/1
X CB
0/1
X CC
0/1
X CD
0/1
X CE
0/1
X EA
0/1
X EB
0/1
X EC
0/1
X ED
0/1
X EE
0/1
AjX
BjX
CjX
DjX
EjX
iAX iBX iCX iDX iEX
Calculation of output in constant prices
Matrix obtained by extrapolation
Matrix obtained by deflation
Output in constant prices
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Main results of the GDP recalculation
FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)
Real GDP to Q1 1995
OKONKh OKVED Change
2003 I 123.0 123.0 0.0
II 130.7 131.6 0.9
III 151.3 150.8 - 0.5
IV 144.8 148.7 3.9
2004 I 131.9 131.8 - 0.1
II 140.5 141.9 1.4
III 162.1 161.6 - 0.5
IV 154.6 158.7 4.1