1 investment compact for south east europe attracting foreign direct investment: a comparative...
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1
Investment Compact for South East Europe
Attracting Foreign Direct Investment:
A Comparative Overview of the FDI in the South East European Countries and
the New EU Member Countries from Central and Eastern Europe
Antonio Fanelli, Principal Administrator
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT FORUM14 – 16 October 2004
Bucharest, Romania
2
FDI Inflows in the South East European Countries in US$ million
Countries 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* Projections
2004
Albania 41 143 200 135 178 300BiH 90 150 130 321 381 350Bulgaria 819 1,002 689 874 1,419 1,500Croatia 1,637 1,126 1,502 1,124 1,956 1,058Macedonia 32 176 442 78 95133Moldova 40 143 149 116 58 120Romania 1,041 1,040 1,373 1,097 1,562 2,000 Serbia andMontenegro 112 25 165 592 1,305 1,000
Totals 3,812 3,805 4,650 4,337 6,954 6,461
Source: Monitoring Instruments, April 2004 * Foreign Direct Investment In South East Europe in 2003 – 2004, WIIW, 2004
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Absolute Level of Inward FDI Stock (current US$ million)
30,724
136,726
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
SEE8 CEE4 Bul + Cro + Rom Rest of SEE
Source: Monitoring Instruments, April 2004; CEE4: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic
4
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP per capita at current prices and market exchange rates
GDP (US$ Billions) GDP per capita (US$)
(Weighted
averages) 1990 (*) 1994 1998 2003 1990 (*) 1994 1998 2003
CEE4 142 190 284 405 2,219 2,947 4,403 6,281
SEE8 166 78 104 138 2,720 1,311 1,781 2,520
Bulgaria + Croatia
+ Romania 121 54 76 105 3,297 1,518 2,163 3,081
Rest of SEE 46 24 28 33 1,857 998 1,204 1,605
(*) Excluding Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1990, where GDP data are not available for that year.
Source: Monitoring Instruments, April 2004
5
FDI Stock Per Capita in SEE and CEE Countries: 1888 vs. 2003 (in current US$)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Albania Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Moldova Romania Serbia &
Montenegro
SEE8 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia CEE4
1998
2003
Source: Monitoring Instruments, April 2004
6
Inward FDI Stock as a percentage of GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
SEE8 CEE4 Bul + Cro + Rom Rest of SEE
Source: Monitoring Instruments, April 2004
7
Export Growth
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20G
row
th r
ate
(p
erc
en
t p
er
year)
Growth Rate (1992-97)Growth Rate (1997-2002)Middle Income Countries Average (1997-2001)
Source: Monitoring Instruments, April 2004
8
FDI vs. Export Performance
Bulgaria
Albania
RomaniaSerbia & Montenegro
Bosnia & Herzegovina
CroatiaMoldova
Rep. of Macedonia
Average of SEE8
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Inward FDI Stock as a Percentage of GDP (Average of 1998-2002)
Ave
rage
Ann
ual G
row
th o
f Exp
ort (
1998
-200
2)
Source: Monitoring Instruments, April 2004
