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Intertanko Athens Tanker Event

April 2005

John Kartsonas(212) 816-6134

john.kartsonas@citigroup.com

See pages 15 to 17 for Analyst Certification and important disclosures

Smith Barney is a division of Citigroup Global Markets. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of the Firm in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at http://www.smithbarney.com (for retail clients) or http://www.citigroupgeo.com (for institutional clients) or can call (866) 836-9542 to request a copy of this research.

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2005 Our View

Return on Investment drives vessel and tanker stock valuations

How much a vessel will earn in the next few years depends on one thing: Dayrates.

Fundamentals relating to supply and demand determine dayrates.

Supply is pretty much set for the next three years: Expect fleet growth of 7%-8% per year.

Demand is capped by production and refining capacity: Tanker demand cannot grow faster than 3%-4% per year till end of 2007 (incl. non-OPEC expectations).

The best case scenario is easy to envision: OPEC produces at capacity, but tanker supply grows faster leading to lower average dayrates.

The worst case scenario takes us back into the 90’s or even the 80’s…

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2005 Tanker Demand Capped by OPEC Capacity

Source: IEA, Clarksons and Smith Barney

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

J an-00 J ul-00 J an-01 J ul-01 J an-02 J ul-02 J an-03 J ul-03 J an-04 J ul-04 J an-05 J ul-05 J an-06 J ul-06 J an-07 J ul-07 J an-08

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141

146

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156OPEC Production VLCC fleet, million Dwt

OPEC producing at estimated capacity

in 2006-2007

Estimated

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2005 Demand is only half of the Equation

The fleet is growing at historically high rates.

Expect the tanker fleet to be some 27% higher at the end of 2007, compare to 2003.

The bet is on OPEC production, not on the fundamentals of the tanker market.

Our analysis is based only on VLCCs; the picture looks even worse when we include the whole crude fleet.

Middle East Production to VLCC fleet

Source: IEA, Clarksons and Smith Barney

• at capacity

•0.5 mbpd increase annually

•Flat to Feb ’05 levels

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8.0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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2005 Chinese refining capacity limits crude imports

Source: OGJ, IEA and Smith Barney

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E

Production Crude Imports Refining Capacity

Chinese refineries operated at an estimated 94% utilization in 2004, up from 89% in 2003.

We estimate expansion projects for 2005 of 200,000 bpd or 3.4%, and another 200,000 in 2006, with the risk being on the downside.

Crude import growth this year is limited by refining capacity, and we estimate incremental demand growth of about 1 mdwt ( about 4-5 VLCCs), down from 2.8 mdwt (10 VLCCs) in ‘04.

SPR not significant in terms of imports ( est. at less than 40k bpd until 2008).

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2005 How we think about the Future

Try to envision what the status of the tanker market will be 12 months from now

Estimate asset values at such an environment

Add back the best case scenario for 2005

Compare to where we stand today

M. East Production : 20.5 mbpd

VLCC fleet: 135 mdwt

= 7.8

= 7.4

March ‘05 avg VLCC rate: $59,000

March ‘06 avg VLCC rate< $59,000

Highest M.E. Production to VLCCs ratio was last September, but lower than October ‘00

March 2005 OPEC @95% capacity

March 2006 OPEC @99% capacity

M. East Production : 21.5 mbpd

VLCC fleet: 144 mdwt

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2005 Dayrate Economics

Assume a required return on investment.

Buy vessel in the secondhand market.

Calculate the breakeven level under different return assumptions.

Breakeven levels are sensitive to purchase price and financing costs.

Secondhand prices are at all time high, interest rates are on the rise.

Breakeven levels should include the overall cost of capital

Source: Smith Barney

* For model assumptions please see appendix

VLCC Suezmax Aframax VLCC Suezmax Aframax VLCC Suezmax AframaxRequired Return on Investment 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%Secondhand Prices, Modern 130$ 80$ 65$ 130$ 80$ 65$ 130$ 80$ 65$ Annual Cash Flow $12.08 $7.43 $6.04 $13.70 $8.43 $6.85 $8.15 $5.02 $4.08

Average Dayrate, next 25 years 44,807$ 30,165$ 25,429$ 49,726$ 33,192$ 27,887$ 32,840$ 22,802$ 19,452$

15-year average 33,837$ 24,904$ 21,640$ 33,837$ 24,904$ 21,640$ 33,837$ 24,904$ 21,640$ 10-year average 38,893$ 29,491$ 25,020$ 38,893$ 29,491$ 25,020$ 38,893$ 29,491$ 25,020$ 5-year average 50,190$ 39,258$ 33,195$ 50,190$ 39,258$ 33,195$ 50,190$ 39,258$ 33,195$

8.0% ROI, 10% ROE 4.0% ROI, 0% ROE9.5% ROI, 15% ROE

Breakeven rates under different assumptions

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2005 Risk and Reward

Buy vessel in the secondhand market

Operate it for one year

Sell vessel in the secondhand market

VLCC Suezmax AframaxAcquisition Price 130$ 80$ 65$ 1 Year Average Dayrate 65,000$ 45,000$ 35,000$ Annual Cash Flow 19$ 12$ 9$ Sale Price 83$ 53$ 47$

Return -22% -19% -14%

Sale price represents purchase price minus one year worth of cash flows at mid-cycle rate

Amounts are discounted at 8%

Sale price declines to May 2004 level

Risk is high

VLCC Suezmax AframaxAcquisition Price 130$ 80$ 65$ 1 Year Average Dayrate 65,000$ 45,000$ 35,000$ Annual Cash Flow 19$ 12$ 10$ Sale Price 128$ 78$ 63$

Return 13% 13% 12%

ROE~ 33%

ROE~ -50%

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2005 How about publicly traded stocks?

The previous analysis was for the secondhand market.

Publicly traded stocks currently trade at a premium to NAV.

Previous analysis becomes even more worrisome for publicly traded companies, as breakeven levels move even higher.

If you have second thoughts on buying at these levels, how about buying at a 50% higher price?

Shipping is called cyclical for a reason and recognizing the peak is what would make an investment successful.

Risk and Reward are parts of the same formula, and investors should think about it the same way.

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2005 What is our advice?

A. Sell vessels which you might be able to re-purchase at lower prices Secondhand prices already discount very high expectations Public money is chasing vessels pushing prices higher

B. Lock in profits through TC or TC/profit sharing agreements TC allow for impressive long term returns Profit sharing is increasingly popular, although it is becoming scare

C. De-leverage to be ready for future opportunities This cycle might be over, but longer term the fundamentals are there 2010 could be an important year, though it is still uncertain

D. Product market more attractive than crude market Refining capacity exists or is being built away from consuming nations (Refining complexity in China of

5.9 vs. 4.9 in S. Korea and 6.7 in Singapore) More flexibility in trading, not much dependence on OPEC

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2005

Intertanko Athens Tanker Event

April 2005

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Appendix

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2005 Smith Barney Tanker Supply-Demand Model (1)

Source: Smith Barney

4/5/2005 1999E 2000E 2001E 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 01-02% 02-03, % 03-04, % 04-05, % 05-06, %Global GDP Growth 2.9% 4.0% 1.3% 1.9% 2.9% 4.3% 3.6% 3.7% 46.2% 52.6% 48.3% -16.3% 2.8%Oil Demand, million bpdby RegionNorth America 23.9 24.1 24.0 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.6 26.1 0.5% 1.9% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9%Europe 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1%Pacific 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.7 1.5% 1.8% -1.8% 0.9% 0.5%Total OECD 47.6 47.8 47.8 48.1 48.9 49.6 50.2 50.9 0.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

FSU 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 -5.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.3% 2.4%Other Europe 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -8.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.8% 0.8%China 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.3 6.4% 10.9% 15.8% 9.3% 4.0%Other Asia 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.6 8.9 9.3 4.1% 2.9% 5.5% 4.1% 4.0%Latin America 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 -1.4% -1.9% 3.8% 1.8% 3.4%Midde East 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.3 8.7% 3.7% 5.8% 4.9% 2.3%Africa 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 5.9% 1.6% 2.5% 3.3% 2.4%Total non-OECD 27.1 28.5 29.0 29.9 30.9 33.0 34.5 35.6 3.0% 3.5% 6.6% 4.7% 3.2%

Total Global Oil Demand 74.7 76.3 76.8 77.9 79.8 82.5 84.7 86.6 1.5% 2.4% 3.4% 2.7% 2.2%Oil Suplly, million bpdNon-OPEC 44.7 45.9 46.9 48.2 49.0 50.0 51.0 51.8 2.8% 1.7% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5%OPEC Crude 26.6 27.9 27.0 25.1 26.8 28.7 29.5 30.0 -7.0% 6.8% 6.9% 2.9% 1.7%Total Global Supply 74.1 76.7 77.0 76.8 79.7 83.0 85.2 86.6 -0.3% 3.8% 4.1% 2.7% 1.6%

Smith Barney Tanker Supply-Demand Model

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2005 Smith Barney Tanker Supply-Demand Model (2)

Source: Smith Barney

Seaborne trade, million bpdby OriginMiddle East 17.1 17.6 17.6 16.4 17.2 18.4 19.0 19.4 -7.2% 5.0% 7.4% 2.8% 2.3%West Africa 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.4 -1.4% 15.2% 12.6% 5.0% 2.3%FSU 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.5 5.2 5.9 6.4 6.6 25.4% 14.8% 13.1% 8.5% 3.2%Latin America 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 -5.7% -0.8% 1.5% 2.1% 3.3%Other 15.0 15.1 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.0 14.9 14.8 0.3% -0.4% -2.8% -0.6% -0.7%

Total Seaborne Trade 40.9 42.3 43.0 42.5 44.4 46.4 47.6 48.3 -1.2% 4.4% 4.5% 2.6% 1.5%Tanker Demand, bil. tonne-milesby OriginMiddle East 5,601 5,766 5,776 5,327 5,603 5,958 6,073 6,198 -7.8% 5.2% 6.3% 1.9% 2.0%West Africa 914 1,038 939 960 1,117 1,290 1,422 1,455 2.2% 16.3% 15.5% 10.3% 2.3%FSU 365 421 469 589 664 736 804 804 25.6% 12.6% 10.9% 9.2% 0.0%Latin America 439 441 478 468 481 500 525 539 -2.2% 2.7% 4.0% 5.0% 2.7%Other 2,368 2,363 2,401 2,536 2,402 2,350 2,364 2,354 5.6% -5.3% -2.1% 0.6% -0.4%

Total Tanker Demand 9,688 10,029 10,063 9,880 10,266 10,834 11,189 11,350 -1.8% 3.9% 5.5% 3.3% 1.4%Tanker Supply, million DwtCurrent Fleet 286.9 294.2 290.6 295.2 305.1 323.3 345.1 367.1 1.6% 3.3% 6.0% 6.7% 6.4%Combined Carriers 11.0 12.2 12.7 10.4 7.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 -18.1% -30.8% -23.6% 3.6% 5.3%Lay-up and Storage 5.7 6.6 6.1 5.6 3.4 2.1 2.0 2.3 -8.2% -39.3% -38.2% -4.8% 15.0%Chemical/Specialized 20.1 21.4 23.2 25.1 28.6 31.0 34.0 37.1 8.2% 13.9% 8.4% 9.7% 9.1%

Demolitions 16.7 13.9 15.7 17.2 21.3 7.8 9.2 4.0 9.6% 23.9% -63.6% 19.0% -56.7%Additions 19.9 21.2 13.9 23.1 30.0 27.6 31.0 26.0 66.1% 29.8% -8.0% 12.2% -16.2%

Active Fleet 272.1 278.4 274.0 274.9 280.3 295.7 314.8 333.7 0.3% 1.9% 5.5% 6.4% 6.0%

Total Oil Tanker Supply 272.1 278.4 274.0 274.9 280.3 295.7 314.8 333.7 0.3% 1.9% 5.5% 6.4% 6.0%of whichCrude fleet 212.9 220.4 215.5 220.3 228.4 240.5 259.4 271.7 2.2% 3.7% 5.3% 7.9% 4.8%Products Fleet 74.0 73.8 75.1 74.9 76.7 82.9 85.7 95.3 -0.3% 2.3% 8.1% 3.4% 11.2%Annual tonne-miles per Dwt, '000 35.6 36.4 36.4 36.0 37.0 37.6 36.6 35.0 -1.2% 2.7% 1.7% -2.6% -4.5%Seaborne as % of total supply 55% 55% 56% 55% 56% 56% 56% 56% -1.0% 0.6% 0.4% -0.1% -0.1%

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2005 Return Model Assumptions

Useful life of 25 years, scrap price of $200/ldt, 36k ldt for VLCCs, 22k ldt for Suezmaxes, 17k ldt for Aframaxes.

Cost of debt of 6.6% (4.9% + 1.7%), 60% gearing, cost of equity as in models.

Average annual utilization of 90%, operating costs (including administrative expenses) as follows: $6,500/day for VLCCs $6,000/day for Suezmaxes $5,500/day for Aframaxes

Special survey costs of $8 million during the life of the vessel

Regular dry-docking costs of $6 million during the life of the vessel

mid-cycle rates are as follows: VLCC at $30,000/day Suezmax at $23,000/day Aframax at $21,000/day

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