1

Indralal De Silva Senior Professor of Demography (Chair)

Department of DemographyUniversity of Colombo &Senior Research Fellow

NCASSri Lanka

isilva84@mail.cmb.ac.lkWeb: Indralal.com

Challenges of Demographic Change:

Dividend and Development Prospects

of Sri Lanka

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Sections to be discussed

Demographic transition Past, present & future size of the population Changes in the age & sex structure Demographic dividend (bonus) Labour force Emerging population issues Conclusions

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Demographic Transition

• Mortality (deaths) of Sri Lanka declined since 1920s

• Fertility (births) of Sri Lanka declined since early 1960s. However, since year 2000 it shows an increase

• Since 1970s, emigration (out bound) of Sri Lankans has accelerated – net loser

Ageing is a by product of these trends

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Year Male FemaleDifference

(F – M)

1920 -1922 32.7 30.7 -2.0

1945 -1947 46.8 44.7 -2.1

1953 58.8 57.5 -1.3

1962 -1964 63.3 63.7 +0.4

1970 -1972 64.0 66.9 +2.9

1980 -1982 67.7 72.1 +4.4

2000-2002 68.1 76.6 +8.5

2011 (projected) 68.8 77.6 +8.8

Life Expectancy at Birth (in years)

Age Male Female

At age 6017.2 21.3

Life expectancy at age 60 (in years), 2000-2002

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Fertility Transition

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1953 1963 1971 1981 1995-2000 2001-2006

Year

Total Fertility Rate

–TFR(No. of live births

per woman)

1953 5.32

1963 5.33

1971 4.16

1981 3.45

1995-2000

1.96

2003-2006

(1.8) 2.30

Total fertility rate - TFR

International Migration

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Large no. has migrated - Semi or permanent manner

Departures for foreign employment 2009 247,126

2010 266,445 2011 263,960

2012 271,000

Period Arrivals Departures Net gain/Lost

2000 - 2004 5,574,387 5,634,152 -59,765

2005 - 2008 6,004,207 6,144,351 -140,144

2009 - 2012 8,679,380 8,828,603 -149,223

Labour shortages - Importation of foreign workers -Remittances

7

43791

63720

11023

8680

32269

16377

46021 53867

70522

93896

90170

128821

105949

126468

5433

16044

96807

116015

133251 137394

111778123200

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1600001986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Departures for Foreign Employment

Female

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Population Growth

1871 2.4 million

1925 4.8 million

1960 9.6 million

2003 19.2 million

After 54 yearsAfter 54 years

After 35 yearsAfter 35 years

After 43 yearsAfter 43 years

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Change of Population, Sri Lanka

Year Population size (in millions)

Median age (in years)

1971 12.7 25.0

1981 14.8 26.7

2001 18.7 27.9

2011 Census 2012 =20.3 20.5

31.6

2021 21.5 35.8

2031 21.9 39.6

2041 21.7 42.4

At present the rate of population growth is only 0.7% (2001-2012).

The total population will never get doubled in the future. Is this true with the elderly population?

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Population Growth and Size

0

5

10

15

20

25

1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

ns)

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Gro

wth

rate

(per

cent

age)

Population size

Growth rate

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Sex Ratio (Number of males per 100 females)

Sex ratio of the total population reported in 2012 census is 94.For every 100 females there was only 94 men.

Sex ratio of the elderly in 2011 would have been around 90.

YearSex Ratio

(Total Population)Sex Ratio

(Population 60+)

1971 106.1 121.8

1981 104.0 112.9

2001 97.9 96.7

2011 Census 2012 =94.3 97.5

90.8

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Change of the Age Structure

Year Year Age group (%)Age group (%)

60+60+ 15-5915-59 <15<15

19711971 6.3 54.7 39.0

19811981 6.6 58.2 35.2

20012001 9.2 64.5 26.3

20122012 12.2 (12.5) 62.0 25.8 (22.8)

20162016 14.5 64.2 21.3

20212021 16.8 63.8 19.4

20312031 20.7 63.2 16.1

20412041 24.8 60.0 15.2

The projected proportion of elderly for 2012 is 12.5%, however the census figure is 12.2%.

The proportion of children is 25.8% in the census while projected value is 22.8%.

Population Age 60 and Over (in millions)

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9.2%

12.2%16.7% 20.7%

24.8%

7.9%

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Distribution of Elderly by Age 1971 to 2041

YearYear

PercentagePercentageNumber(‘000)Number(‘000)

60+60+60-7460-74 75+75+

19711971 80.5 19.5 807

19811981 78.9 21.1 986

19911991 78.8 21.2 1,393

20012001 76.3 23.7 1,916

20122012 75.9 24.1 2,468

20212021 75.8 24.2 3,997

20312031 70.1 29.9 5,103

20412041 67.2 32.8 6,305

Old-old category is increasing rapidly

Age Dependency Ratios

• 1996

• 199Year

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Year Age GroupsChild

(0-14)/(15-59)

Elderly(60+)/(15-59)

Total(0-14)+(60+)/(15-59)

1971 71.3 11.5 82.8

1981 60.5 11.3 71.8

2001 40.7 14.3 55.1

2012 41.6 19.7 61.3

2021* 30.4 26.2 56.6

2031* 25.5 32.8 58.3

2041* 25.3 41.4 66.7

2051* 26.5 51.2 77.7

2061* 26.5 57.6 84.1

2071* 28.4 64.0 92.3

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Population ageing will bring a slowdown of labour force

How to address this issue and to achieve productive ageing:

- Policies could be aimed at increasing participation of older workers

- Retirement age could be made more flexible (60 62, 65

- Identification of obstacles for employment of older workers

- Improve the skills of older workers

- Improve the choices available to older workers

- Improving health status of older workers; key reason for withdrawal from the L.M is the ill health - NCDs

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Demographic dividend - bonus (window of opportunity)

• Each country would under go a period comprising “demographic bonus” during the age structure transition

• The demographic bonus would have a positive impact on economic growth

• Newly industrialized countries such as Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc. have utilized the demographic bonus effectively

• During demographic bonus, dependency will be at minimum level; highest proportion of population will be in working ages (15-59 or 15-64)

Demographic dividend (bonus)(Lowest level of dependency exists)

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Environment is conducive for economic takeoff (1991-2017)

It provides sustainable benefits to all segments of the population

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Bonus alone not sufficient for take-off : Lessons from East Asian tigers

• Political stability

• Savings & investment

• Productivity

• Knowledge Economy – skills gap

Increasing the mandatory retirement age till 65 years & productive ageing would stretch the Demographic

Bonus further (say up to 2030)

Growth of Labour Force by Sex (000’)

Year Male Female Total

2010 5609 2896 8505

1990 4374 2594 6968

Growth 1235 302 1537

Ave. annual growth rate (%)

1.24 0.55 1.00

Rate of growth of the female L.F. was significantly lower than the males Rate of growth of the female L.F. was significantly lower than the males – why? – why?

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Emerging Population Issues

• Increase of fertility

• Ageing & disability

• Migration - labour

• Family transition - FHHH

• Social protection

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Conclusions

Fertility, gender gap in life expectancy & migration all indicate upward trend

Population will increase & then stabilize

Size & age-sex structure changing – Size & age-sex structure changing – Fe. Fe.

Proportion & number of elderly will increase

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Demographic environment is conducive for Demographic environment is conducive for economic take-off. Presently lowest level of economic take-off. Presently lowest level of dependency prevails. Rapid ageing could fade dependency prevails. Rapid ageing could fade away this favorable environmentaway this favorable environment

The take-off could provide sustainable The take-off could provide sustainable benefits to all segments of the populationbenefits to all segments of the population

Demographic bonus alone would not Demographic bonus alone would not sufficient enough for Economic take-offsufficient enough for Economic take-off

It is an opportunity that should not be It is an opportunity that should not be missedmissed