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Incorporating Extreme Weather Incorporating Extreme Weather Risks in Asset Management Risks in Asset Management

PlanningPlanning

Lynn ClarkowskiLynn Clarkowski

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What is a Transportation Asset Mgmt Plan (TAMP)?

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Benefits of a TAMP?• Lays out the process of how to best manage the highway

pavements, bridges & other physical assets for the long term

• Resource allocation decisions are based on data and analysis– Consideration of engineering, life-cycle cost, and risk analysis

with investment strategies• Improved coordination between maintenance,

preservations, and capital programs

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Key MAP-21 Components of TAMP

• Asset Inventory/Conditions• Objectives/Measures• Performance Gap

Assessment• Lifecycle Cost• Risk Analysis• Financial Plan• Investment Strategies

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FHWA Asset Management Plan FHWA Asset Management Plan Pilot ProjectPilot Project

• Support three state DOTs developing their first TAMP– Develop TAMP Work Plan

• Working with FHWA & MnDOT consultants

Minnesota

New YorkLouisiana

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Asset Management Plan ScopeHighway Assets

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MnDOT’s TAMP ProgressAsset inventory & condition collected for all four asset

categoriesLife-cycle cost analysis completeRisk assessment complete

– Workshop on November 15 to discuss mitigation strategies, costs, and risk impact

• Financial investment strategies & performance targets– Workshop on November 15 will also include discussion of

financial plan elements

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• Describe lifecycle costs & why they are important• Illustrate a typical deterioration model• Describe strategies for managing assets over their whole

life• Contrast lifecycle costs for different strategies• Document the lifecycle cost of adding a new lane

Life-Cycle Cost

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Pavement LCCA Results

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• Working Groups Identified Risks– Impacts to Asset, Users, MnDOT– Consequence & Likelihood– Mitigation Strategies & Gaps

• Workshop (9/20) Focus on “Undermanaged” Risks

• Comparative Prioritization Exercise

Risk Assessment

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• Few Very High Risk areas• Top (Prioritized) Undermanaged Risks

– Inability to appropriately manage culverts– Not meeting public expectations for local/corridor level

pavement quality/condition– Tunnel and culvert failure or collapse– Premature deterioration of a bridge

Risk Results

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MnDOT’s Flash Flood Vulnerability MnDOT’s Flash Flood Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Pilot and Adaptation Assessment Pilot Project in NE & SE MinnesotaProject in NE & SE Minnesota

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Project BackgroundProject Background• Minnesota GO Vision & Minnesota GO Vision &

Statewide Multimodal Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan identified Transportation Plan identified the risk of flash flooding as a the risk of flash flooding as a result of changing precipitation result of changing precipitation patterns due to climate change.patterns due to climate change.

• From 1958 to 2011, the Midwest From 1958 to 2011, the Midwest has seen 45% increase in very has seen 45% increase in very heavy precipitation (NOAA)heavy precipitation (NOAA)

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What happened?What happened?

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Trunk Highway 210 East Park EntranceJay Cooke

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Hwy 2 and 35 Proctor (near Duluth)

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Project ObjectivesProject Objectives

• Better understand the trunk highway network’s risk Better understand the trunk highway network’s risk from flash flooding from flash flooding

• Identify cost-effect options to improve the network’s Identify cost-effect options to improve the network’s resiliencyresiliency

• Support the development of Minnesota’s first Support the development of Minnesota’s first Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP)Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP)

• Provide feedback to FHWA on the Draft FrameworkProvide feedback to FHWA on the Draft Framework

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Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment FrameworkAssessment Framework

A guide for transportation agencies to assess A guide for transportation agencies to assess vulnerability to climate change and extreme vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather eventsweather events

3 key steps: 3 key steps: 1. Define study assets and climate

variables2. Assess vulnerability3. Incorporate results into decision

making

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Project OverviewProject Overview

• General systems-level General systems-level vulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessment of the trunk highway network in each district of the trunk highway network in each district

• Timeline: September 2013 – February/March 2014– Inform and supplement TAMP risk assessment

• Focused Focused adaptation assessmentadaptation assessment for specific high-for specific high-risk facilities identified in the system-level risk facilities identified in the system-level assessment assessment

• March 2014 – June/July 2014

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Defining VulnerabilityDefining Vulnerability

““Climate change Climate change vulnerability vulnerability in the in the transportation context is a function of a transportation context is a function of a transportation system’s transportation system’s exposureexposure to to climate effects, climate effects, sensitivitysensitivity to climate to climate effects, and effects, and adaptiveadaptive capacitycapacity.” .” (Vulnerability Framework)(Vulnerability Framework)

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• Culvert Capacity Risk Mitigation Strategies:Culvert Capacity Risk Mitigation Strategies:– Check culvert capacity during all capital improvement

projects, upsize when needed, and stop practice of replacing in kind w/o analysis.

– Identify future projects in advance to do hydraulic analysis, purchase ROW, and obtain permits. Shelf ready means incorporation of fixes in short timeframe.

Linking TAMP Risk Results and Adaptability to Climate Change

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• Culvert Failure/Collapse Risk Mitigation Culvert Failure/Collapse Risk Mitigation Strategies:Strategies:– Develop & implement system condition performance

measure for replacement or repair of poor and very poor culverts

– Culverts in poor and very poor condition are prioritized and replaced in construction/maintenance projects

Linking TAMP Risk Results and Adaptability to Climate Change

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Key Dates for the TAMPKey Dates for the TAMP

December 2013 – Expected Federal December 2013 – Expected Federal Rulemaking for Asset ManagementRulemaking for Asset Management

April 2014 - Submittal of Draft TAMP to April 2014 - Submittal of Draft TAMP to FHWA as part of pilot projectFHWA as part of pilot project

October 2015 - MAP 21 Deadline for October 2015 - MAP 21 Deadline for Federally Approved TAMPFederally Approved TAMP