1 i. international capital mobility. a. why international capital flows ?
TRANSCRIPT
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I. International Capital Mobility
a. Why international capital flows ?
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(i) Capital flows as a counterpart of the exchange of goods (see point b)
– Trade balance = Net capital outflows– Exchange of goods results from differences
across countries: productivity, endowments, time preference.
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(ii) Capital flows as exchange of assets to hedge risks
• Risks result from changes in prices
- raw materials: gold, oil…
- exchange rate: relative price of one good between two countries
- assets
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Example
• Imagine a US computer maker firm (A) and a European distribution firm (B).
• B places an order with A of 300 computers in 02/04. A will deliver these 300 computers with a delay in 05/04.
• Computer’s Price: 1000USD• 02/04: 1€->1.25 USD• 05/04: 1€->1.2 USD
€/$
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• B has to pay in USD so he will support this exchange rate risk.
• If B pays when it orders in 02/04, the cost will be 240 000€
• If B pays at the delivery in 05/04, the cost will be 250 000€
• The spread between those payments (10 000 €) reflects changes in USD/€ exchange rate.
• B can ask the bank to hedge this foreign exchange risk. Otherwise, changes in exchange rates will be supported by the buyers of B’s computers.
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Price’s fluctuations
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• These risks are more present because of higher capital mobility.
• There is a risk when prices fluctuate.
• Risk on exchange rates were reduced in the Bretton Woods system.
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Hedge’s instruments (see Mishkin, Chapter 13)
• Financial derivatives are used to eliminate the price risk inherent in transactions that call for future delivery of money, a security, or a commodity.
• Buying an asset is taking a long position.• Selling an asset for a future delivery is taking a
short position.• Principle’s of hedging is to offset a long position
by taking an additional short position or offset a short position by taking an additional long position.
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Hedge’s instruments
• Forward contracts are agreements by two parties to engage in a financial transaction at a future point in time.
• Futures contract are traded on organized exchanges such as the Montreal Exchange in Canada.
• Futures contracts are standardized (↑size of the market -> ↑ liquidity) and parties are engaged with an intermediate (the clearinghouse) to prevent from the risk of default.
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Example
• B has to buy USD in 2 months.• He has to enter in a forward contract: he will
engage now to buy in 2 months 300 000 USD against 240 000 € at the current exchange rate (1€->1.25USD).
• Otherwise B could address to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for a euro contract delivered in May. The amount is 1000€ by contract with an exchange rate of 1.25USD. So B needs 240 contracts to sell 240 000€ in May against 300 000 USD.
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Hedge’s instruments
• Options are contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying financial instrument at a specified price (exercise price) within a specific period of time.
• The writer (seller) of the option is forced to buy or sell the financial instrument to the owner (buyer) but the owner does not have to exercise the option.
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Hedge’s instruments
• A call option is a contract that gives the owner the right to buy a financial instrument at the exercise price within a specific period of time.
• A put option is a contract that gives the owner the right to sell a financial instrument at the exercise price within a specific period of time.
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Example
• 02/04 : 1€->1.25USD
• Imagine that 05/04 the €/USD has appreciated (1€->1.3 USD) then B loses with a forward contract but not with an option because in this case he will not exercise the option.
b. The reasons of exchange
(i) Static analysis: some aspects of international trade (differences in productivity,
in endowments) (ii) Dynamic analysis: intertemporal
choice
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(i) Static analysis
• We assume here that trade balance is always zero so that there are no capital flows.
• International trade exists because countries are different (productivity, factors endowment)
• Trade implies price convergence• To study the effects of trade, we distinguish:
– An autarky economy (AE)– A trading economy (TE)
-> Countries have an advantage to exchange when there exists a gap between prices in the AE and the TE.
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• This section:-> why countries benefit from international trade?
->what are the consequences of international trade on prices?
• Same answer around three different international trade models:
-> Because countries are different-> International trade leads to a price convergence
(i-a) the Ricardian model(i-b) the Factor Specific model
(i-c) the Hecksher Olhin model
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(i-a) The Ricardian Model
• Introduction
• The Concept of Comparative Advantage
• A One-Factor Economy
• Trade in a One-Factor World
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• Countries engage in international trade for two basic reasons:– They are different from each other in terms of
climate, land, capital, labor, and technology.– They try to achieve scale economies in
production.
• The Ricardian model is based on technological differences across countries.– These technological differences are reflected in
differences in the productivity of labor.
Introduction
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• If each country exports the goods in which it has comparative advantage (lower opportunity costs), then all countries can in principle gain from trade.
• What determines comparative advantage? – Answering this question would help us understand
how country differences determine the pattern of trade (which goods a country exports).
The Concept of Comparative Advantage
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A One-Factor Economy
• Assume that we are dealing with an economy (which we call Home). In this economy:– Labor is the only factor of production.– Only two goods (say wine and cheese) are
produced.– The supply of labor is fixed in each country.– The productivity of labor in each good is fixed.– Perfect competition prevails in all markets.
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• The constant labor productivity is modeled with the specification of unit labor requirements:– The unit labor requirement is the number of hours of
labor required to produce one unit of output.• Denote with aLW the unit labor requirement for wine (e.g. if
aLW = 2, then one needs 2 hours of labor to produce one gallon of wine).
• Denote with aLC the unit labor requirement for cheese (e.g. if aLC = 1, then one needs 1 hour of labor to produce a pound of cheese).
• The economy’s total resources are defined as L, the total labor supply (e.g. if L = 120, then this economy is endowed with 120 hours of labor or 120 workers).
A One-Factor Economy
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• Production Possibilities– The production possibility frontier (PPF) of an
economy shows the maximum amount of a good (say wine) that can be produced for any given amount of another (say cheese), and vice versa.
– The PPF of our economy is given by the following equation:
aLCQC + aLWQW = L (2-1)– From our previous example, we get:
QC + 2QW = 120
A One-Factor Economy
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L/aLW
L/aLC
Figure 2-1: Home’s Production Possibility Frontier
A One-Factor Economy
Absolute value of slope equalsopportunity cost of cheese interms of wine
Home wine production, QW, in gallons
Home cheese production, QC, in pounds
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• Relative Prices and Supply– The particular amounts of each good
produced are determined by prices.– The relative price of good X (cheese) in terms
of good Y (wine) is the amount of good Y (wine) that can be exchanged for one unit of good X (cheese).
– Examples of relative prices:• If a price of a can of Coke is $0.5, then the relative
price of Coke is the amount of $ that can be exchanged for one unit of Coke, which is 0.5.
• The relative price of a $ in terms of Coke is 2 cans of Coke per dollar.
A One-Factor Economy
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• Denote with PC the dollar price of cheese and with PW the dollar price of wine. Denote with wW the dollar wage in the wine industry and with wC the dollar wage in the cheese industry.
• Then under perfect competition, the non-negative profit condition implies:
– If PW / aW < wW, then there is no production of QW.
– If PW / aW = wW, then there is production of QW.
– If PC / aC < wC, then there is no production of QC.
– If PC / aC = wC, then there is production of QC.
A One-Factor Economy
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• The above relations imply that if the relative
price of cheese (PC / PW ) exceeds its
opportunity cost (aLC / aLW), then the economy
will specialize in the production of cheese.
• In the absence of trade, both goods are
produced, and therefore PC / PW = aLC /aLW.
A One-Factor Economy
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Trade in a One-Factor World• Assumptions of the model:
– There are two countries in the world (Home and Foreign).– Each of the two countries produces two goods (say wine
and cheese).– Labor is the only factor of production.– The supply of labor is fixed in each country.– The productivity of labor in each good is fixed.– Labor is not mobile across the two countries.– Perfect competition prevails in all markets.– All variables with an asterisk refer to the Foreign country.
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• Absolute Advantage– A country has an absolute advantage in a
production of a good if it has a lower unit labor requirement than the foreign country in this good.
– Assume that aLC < a*LC and aLW < a*
LW
• This assumption implies that Home has an absolute advantage in the production of both goods. Another way to see this is to notice that Home is more productive in the production of both goods than Foreign.
• Even if Home has an absolute advantage in both goods, beneficial trade is possible.
• The pattern of trade will be determined by the concept of comparative advantage.
Trade in a One-Factor World
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• Comparative Advantage– Assume that aLC /aLW < a*
LC /a*LW (2-2)
• This assumption implies that the opportunity cost of cheese in terms of wine is lower in Home than it is in Foreign.
• In other words, in the absence of trade, the relative price of cheese at Home is lower than the relative price of cheese at Foreign.
• Home has a comparative advantage in cheese and will export it to Foreign in exchange for wine.
Trade in a One-Factor World
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L*/a*LW
L*/a*LC
Foreign wine production, Q*
W, in gallons
Foreign cheese production, Q*
C , in pounds
+1
Figure 2-2: Foreign’s Production Possibility Frontier
Trade in a One-Factor World
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• Determining the Relative Price After Trade– What determines the relative price (e.g., PC /
PW) after trade? • To answer this question we have to define the
relative supply and relative demand for cheese in the world as a whole.
• The relative supply of cheese equals the total quantity of cheese supplied by both countries at each given relative price divided by the total quantity of wine supplied, (QC + Q*
C )/(QW + Q*W).
• The relative demand of cheese in the world is a similar concept.
Trade in a One-Factor World
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2
RD'
RD
1
Q'
aLC/aLW
a*LC/a*
LW RS
Figure 2-3: World Relative Supply and Demand
Trade in a One-Factor World
Relative priceof cheese, PC/PW
Relative quantityof cheese, QC + Q*
C
QW + Q*W
L/aLC
L*/a*LW
Home autarky relative prices
Foreign autarky relative prices
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• The Gains from Trade– If countries specialize according to their
comparative advantage, they all gain from this specialization and trade.
– We will demonstrate these gains from trade in two ways.
– First, we can think of trade as a new way of producing goods and services (that is, a new technology).
Trade in a One-Factor World
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– Another way to see the gains from trade is to consider how trade affects the consumption in each of the two countries.
– The consumption possibility frontier states the maximum amount of consumption of a good a country can obtain for any given amount of the other commodity.
– In the absence of trade, the consumption possibility curve is the same as the production possibility curve.
– Trade enlarges the consumption possibility for each of the two countries.
Trade in a One-Factor World
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Trade in a One-Factor WorldFigure 2-4: Trade Expands Consumption Possibilities
T
F
P
T*P*
F*
(a) Home (b) Foreign
Quantityof wine, QW
Quantityof cheese, QC
Quantityof wine, Q*
W
Quantityof cheese, Q*
C
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A Numerical Example• The following table describes the technology of
the two counties:
Table 2-2: Unit Labor Requirements
Trade in a One-Factor World
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• The previous numerical example implies that: aLC / aLW = 1/2 < a*
LC / a*LW = 2
– In world equilibrium, the relative price of cheese must lie between these values. Assume that Pc/PW = 1 gallon of wine per pound of cheese.
• Both countries will specialize and gain from this specialization.– Consider Home, which can transform wine to
cheese by either producing it internally or by producing cheese and then trading the cheese for wine.
Trade in a One-Factor World
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– Home can use one hour of labor to produce 1/aLW = 1/2 gallon of wine if it does not trade.
– Alternatively, it can use one hour of labor to produce 1/aLC = 1 pound of cheese, sell this amount to Foreign, and obtain 1 gallon of wine.
Trade in a One-Factor World
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– In the absence of trade, Foreign can use one unit of labor to produce 1/a*
LC = 1/6 pound of cheese using the domestic technology.
– Can it do better by specializing in wine and trading wine with Home for cheese?
– In the presence of trade, Foreign can use one unit of labor to produce 1/a*
LW = 1/3 gallon of wine.
– Since the world price of wine is PW / PC = 1 pound of cheese per gallon, Foreign can obtain 1/3 lb of cheese which is more than 1/6 lb.
Trade in a One-Factor World
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Another Ex: If PC/PW=2,5
Opportunity Cost of Cheese
Specialization
Production with 1h of labor
AutarkyProduction with 1h of labor
Home 2, aLC=2
aLW=1
½ C
→1,25 W
½ C or 1W
Foreign 3, a*LC=6
a*LW=2
½ W
→0,2 C
½ W or 1/6 C
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(i-b) The Specific Factors Model (SF)
• Model developed by Samuelson and Jones (1971).
• Ricardian Model: differences in labor productivity explain international trade
• SF model: – 3 inputs (capital, land, labor) and two sectors:
capital and land are specific while labor is mobile
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Endowments (land, capital)
Prices in AE
International Trade Price Convergence
(i-b) The Specific Factors Model (SF)
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Autarky Equilibrium• Assume that there are 2 countries producing 2
goods (M and F) :– Canada : TA, KA
– Japan : TJ,KJ
To simplify, consider that the demand for each good is the same in the two countries but countries have
different endowments in inputs: TA>TJ, KJ>KA
Canada: QF>QM,
Japan: QM>QF
PM/PF is higher in Canada
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Trading Equilibrium
• International trade leads to a change in each country’s relative price.
• The relative price increases in Japan and falls in Canada.
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(i-c) The HO Model
• 2 sectors – 2 substitutable inputs (land and labor for instance)
• Production can be obtained with different combinations of inputs.
• Production structure depends on input’s prices and hence on factor’s endowments.
• Main result: differences in productivity and endowments lead to differences in AE prices. International trade entails a relative price convergence (goods, inputs).
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Course OverviewI. International capital mobility a. Why international capital flows?
b. The reasons of exchange: some aspects of international trade and intertemporal choice
(i) Static analysis (ii) Dynamic Analysis
c. Recent evolutions of financial integration
d. The Balance of Payments
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(ii) Dynamic analysis: intertemporal choice
• The exchange of goods is a way of saving or borrowing.
• Trade balance could be– Positive: the home country saves and
accumulates net foreign assets– Negative: the home country borrows to the
rest of the world
->International exchange of capital
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• Why an international exchange of capital?– Differences between countries (autarky
interest rates)– Autarky interest rate depends on domestic
saving (time preference) and domestic investment (capital productivity)
• International exchange leads to a price convergence (r)
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Intertemporal Production Possibility Frontier and Exchange
• Economic agents face an intertemporal arbitrage between present consumption and future consumption.
• In a closed economy, the non consumed income (Y-C-G) is invested to increase future consumption.
• In an open economy, investment does not systematically result from a renunciation to present consumption. It can result from capital inflows too.
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• Assume a one good - Home economy living two periods: present and future.
• All happens as if the country was producing two goods:– The good 1 designs the only good produced at
period 1
– The good 2 designs the only good produced at period 2
– The relative price between good 1 and good 2 will be 1+r.
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Present good
Future good
Intertemporal production frontier
AQp
Qf
Investment
Isovalue line
Qp+Qf/(1+r)=Q
Q
B
Isoutility
Two period equilibrium in a closed economy
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• At point A, the country produces only at the first period and investment is zero.
• At point B, the country invests the all income and present production is zero.
• At point Q, the country produces Qp in present and Qf in the future. The spread A-Qp represent the quantity of good not consumed in the first period to be invested in order to increase future production: investment.
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A two country world• Home country: intertemporal PPF is biased
toward present production• Foreign country: intertemporal PPF is biased
toward future production• Since PPFs differ, countries have incentive to
trade.• Differences in PPFs appear through the
relative price (opportunity cost) of present consumption in terms of future consumption.
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• Since Home country production is biased towards present, price of present consumption will be lower in Home country than in Foreign country.
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• The relative price of future consumption in terms of present consumption is:– 1/(1+rA) for Home country (Autarky)
– 1/(1+rA*) for Foreign country (Autarky)
– 1/(1+r*) with international trade (price convergence)
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• Before international trade, we have:
rA<rA*
• International trade leads to a real interest rate convergence: a rise in rA and a fall in rA* such that: rA<r<rA*
• Home country saves whereas Foreign country borrows at the first period.
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A two country world
D
Q
Q
D
Future goodFuture good
Present good Present good
Both Isovalue line and IBC:Qp+Qf/(1+r)=Q=Dp+Df/(1+r)
Dp
Df
Qp
Qf
Qp
Qf
Df
Dp
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• Home country exports present consumption and imports future consumption.
• Foreign country borrows to finance present consumption and lend in the future.
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International trade leads to interest rate convergence• Foreign country wants
to borrow on world market because the real interest rate is lower than in the autarky situation.
• Home country wants to lend on world market because real interest rate is higher than in the autarky situation.
RD world
RS world
RS Home
RSForeign
r
Qp/Qf
rmonde
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Creditor or Debtor Country?
• A country with a PPF biased toward present (or a patient country) will export present consumption.
• A country with a PPF biased toward future (or an impatient country) will import present consumption.
• Patient country = High saving rate• Impatient country = Low saving rate• Age pyramid is a fundamental determinant of
savings.