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Global Change:Greenhouse Gases

Environmental Sustainability Educational Resources

prepared by

Gregory A. KeoleianAssociate Research Scientist,

School of Natural Resources and Environment

Co-Director, Center for Sustainable Systems

University of Michigan

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Contents• Human Impact on Global Climate [slide 4]

• Greenhouse Effect [slide 5]

• Global Warming Potentials [slide 6]

• 1998 GHG Emissions in U.S. [slide 7]

• Trends in U.S. GHG Emissions, 1990–1998 [slide 8]

• Carbon Dioxide (non-energy related) Emissions [slide 9]

• Methane Emissions [slide 10]

• Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions [slide 11]

• Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s) Emissions [slide 12]

• Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Emissions [slide 13]

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• Total Energy Related Carbon Emissions for Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1994[slide 14]

• CO2 Emissions per Capita for Selected Countries [slide 15]• Global Atmospheric Concentration of CO2 [slides 16 - 17]• CO2 & Temperature Relationships (Historical) [slides 18- 19]• GHG Emissions (Projected) [slide 20] • Carbon Emissions by Region 1997 [slide 20]• Carbon Emissions by Region 2020 [slide 21]• Potential Climate Change Impacts [slide 22]

– Temperature [slides 23-25]– Sea level [slides 26-27]

• Policy: Kyoto Protocol [slides 28 - 29]• Additional Resources [slide 30]

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Human Impact on Global Climate

• “The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate” IPCC 1995

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Global Warming Potentials(100 year time horizon)

Greenhouse gases GWP

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1Methane (CH4) 21Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 310Hydrofluorocarbons (e.g., HFC 134a) 1300Perfluorcarbon (e.g., CF4) 6500Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900

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Trends in U.S. GHG Emissions, 1990–1998

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

MM

TC

E

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Carbon Dioxide (non-energy related) Emissions

• Cement manufacture– calcium carbonate is heated to produce lime– In 1998, the United States manufactured an

estimated 85.5 million metric tons of cement, resulting in the direct release of carbon dioxide containing about 10.6 million metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere.

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Methane Emissions• Energy production and consumption

– coal mining – natural gas systems

• Waste management– landfill gas

• Agriculture– manure management– cattle (enteric fermentation)– rice cultivation

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Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions

• Agricultural soil management– nitrogen fertilization

• Mobile sources

• Adipic acid production– used to make nylon

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Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s)

• Aluminum production– perfloromethane (CF4)

• GWP = 6500

– perfloroethane (C2F6)• GWP = 9200

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Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Emissions

• Insulator for electrical equipment

• Fugitive emission from semiconductor manufacture

• Cover gas for magnesium production– prevents the oxidation of molten magnesium in

presence of air

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Total Energy Related Carbon Emissions for Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1994

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

All Other Manufacturing Industries

Stone, Clay and Glass Products

Food and Kindred Products

Paper and Allied Products

Primary Metal Industries

Chemicals and Allied Products

Petroleum and Coal Products

Million Metric Tons

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Carbon Emissions per Capita for Selected Countries

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

India

Brazil

Developing Countries

China

Turkey

Mexico

World

France

Italy

Former Soviet Union

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Germany

Industrialized Countries

Netherlands

Canada

United States

Metric Tons Carbon

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Expected Consequences of GHG Concentration Increases

• Temperature: Global temperatures are rising. Observations collected over the last century suggest that the average land surface temperature has risen 0.45-0.6°C (0.8-1.0°F) in the last century.

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Carbon Emissions by Region 1997(6175 Million Metric Tons Carbon)

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Carbon Emissions by Region 2020(10,009 Million Metric Tons Carbon)

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Predictions of future temperature

• Since 1979, scientists have generally agreed that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases the earth’s average surface temperature by 1.5-4.5°C (3-8°F).

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New Temperature Projections

• The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8ºC over the period 1990 to 2100.

• Source: Shanghai Draft 21-01-2001 IPCC WGI THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT

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Sea Level

• Sea level has risen worldwide approximately 15-20 cm (6-8 inches) in the last century. Approximately 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) of the rise has resulted from the melting of mountain glaciers. Another 2-7 cm has resulted from the expansion of ocean water that resulted from warmer ocean temperatures.

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Kyoto Protocol

• Framework – stabilize greenhouse gas emissions to prevent

anthropogenic interference with the climate system

– emission targets for industrialized countries between 2008-2012 are collectively about 5% lower than 1990 emissions

• US target is 7% reduction

• developing countries do not have quantified targets

– six gases

• CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

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• The Protocol is subject to ratification, acceptance, approval or accession by Parties to the Convention. – It shall enter into force on the ninetieth day after the

date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 from that group, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.

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Additional Resources

• Global Change Courses at the University of Michigan– Introduction to Global Change (AOSS 171/172)– http://www.sprl.umich.edu/GCL/