1 erf infrastructure safety forum workshop: tuesday 11 october 2005 preventive hazard identification...
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ERF Infrastructure Safety ForumWorkshop: Tuesday 11 October 2005Preventive Hazard Identification
Michael Höppner, FGS Berlin
Risk assessment in urban areas
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner2
Risk assessment in urban areas
• What are the safety problems in urban areas?
• Can we identify special areas?
• Do we know the backgrounds?
• Can we get active preventatively?
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner3
One remark before ....
•Driving and walking is very simple, everybody can do it, even without a special education
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner4
Three rules for safe travelling:
1. Use the predefined road way
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner5
Three rules for safe travelling:
2. Avoid touching obstacles or stop before (including moving obstacles!)
Area of safe travel and stopping line (Gibson&Crooks 1938)
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner6
Three rules for safe travelling:
3. Have confidence, but not to much
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner7
Accidents by kind of road, federal country Brandenburg, Germany 2004
8.847 8.797
7.8157.433
6.3515.850
5.315
11.820 11.997
11.364
10.743
9.668
9.0958.748
9.176
11.982
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
rural
urban
urban roads: 62%
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner8
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner9
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner10
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner11
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner12
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner13
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner14
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner15
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner16
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner17
kind of accident, rural
680
348
486
739
72
1.388
270
1.019
149
164
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
k . A./other
with stationary car
with in front of starting car
with parallel itinerant car
with obliging car
bending in/crossing
with pedestrian
with road obstacle
leave road to the right
leave road to the left
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner18
kind of accident, urban804
937
815
286
714
3.474
648
53
603
414
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
k . A./other
with stationary car
with in front of starting car
with parallel itinerant car
with obliging car
bending in/crossing
with pedestrian
with road obstacle
leave road to the right
leave road to the left
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner19
Accident location in road net with BASta
Using an accident data management system
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner20
Accidents in Brandenburg 2004
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner21
Accidents 2004 in urban situations
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner22
Ranking „suspicious“ urban road sections
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner23
Rank #1 in 2004
B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930
B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940
B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450
B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460
L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70
L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5
L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner24
Accidents of the years 2000-2004
B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930
B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940
B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450
B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460
L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70
L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5
L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner25
6 examples: urban sections with problems
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner26
Example #1: Divide road in subsections
Brandenburger Stra
ße
B 1-820
Auf dem Stre
ngfeld
Potsdam
er Straße
Grüner Weg
UB 1: km 0,386 - 0,534km 0,000 - 0,250
L 90-40
UB 3: km 0,950 - 1,050
An der Chauss
ee
UB 2: km 0,700 - 0,900Richterberg
B 1-830
Mo
osfennstraß
e
Pusch
kinstr
aße
Kugelweg
LietzesWeg
Brandenburger Straße
Glindow
UB 4: km 2,050 - 2,200
L 90-30
2,2
0,4
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,82
3,2
3,4
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820
B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840
L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30
L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner27
Example #1: Accidents with cyclists
drinks cash-and-carry restaurant
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner28
Example #1: accidents with cyclists and cars
2,2
12/00
10/01
31/02
L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40
06/98
02/9810/99
02/99
15/00
11/00
09/00
05/00
11/01
12/02
36/02
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner29
Example #1: where is the problem?
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner30
Example #1: a proposal for redevelopment
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner31
Example #2: single accidents, no clusters
Altstadt
UB 2: km 1,450 - 1,550
B 1-820
UB 1: km 0,050 - 1,450L 90-40
Am Gutshof
Plantagenplatz
Richterberg
B 1-830
B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820
L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner32
Example #2: looks normal
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner33
Example #2: again problems of sight
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner34
Example #2: a proposal of road redevelopment
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner35
Example #3: a real black spot
UB 1: km 1,770 - 1,870
Berlin-Zehlendorf
UB 2: km 1,870 - 2,920
K 6901-10
Teltow
Puschkinplatz
Kleinmachnow
Förster-Funke-Allee
Friedensbrücke
Machnower See
Bäketal
Stahnsdorf
L 77-110
L 76-60
L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50
L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70
L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner36
Example #3: accidents with cyclists
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner37
Example #3: road construction plan
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner38
Example #3: looks normal
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner39
Example #3: but no view again
hedge
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner40
Example #3: no view ...
hedgecars
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner41
Example #3: redevelopment
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner42
Example #3: cheaper redevelopment
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner43
Example #4: cycling in wrong direction
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner44
Example #4: every thing is ok....
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner45
Example #4: but outside the town....
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner46
Example #4:
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner47
Example #4:
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner48
Example #4:
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner49
Example #4:
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner50
Example #4: wrong direction and no view
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner51
What did we see?
• Statistical results don‘t lead directly to solutions- Only reviewing the locations will help
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner52
What did we see?
• Problems of sight are risky ....- should be checked preventively, - best in an plan audit, - looking at more than the pure road side
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner53
What did we see:
• Problems of sight may develop with time: - road inspections are needed as a standard maintenance
- Building permission act and plan safety audit should join more
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner54
What did we see?
• Road users develop there own „safety strategies“- Road planners have to do their job... and remember that the road offers behavior setting to the user
- If you can not avoid wrong behavior allow it and support it
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner55
What did we see?
• Road functions might change with new neighbors- Road inspections have to realize the new situations and react
- Redevelopment of roads is a permanent process, as part of normal maintenance
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner56
Risk assessment in urban areas
• What are the safety problems in urban areas?- Car drivers at intersections- Cyclists at intersections- Pedestrians crossing the road- Driving to fast without sight- Behavior setting road design disregarding
users sight and possibilities- traffic planning missing actual changes
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner57
Risk assessment in urban areas
• Can we identify special areas?- Not really- Always need local approach- Traffic load determines number of conflicts
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner58
Risk assessment in urban areas
• Do we know the backgrounds?- We can only look at obviously wrong or misleading road design
- If we find some of these places we have done a lot
- Good idea to consider personal “safety strategies”
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner59
Risk assessment in urban areas
• Can we get active preventatively?- Yes, we can with standarised regular road inspections
- Yes, we can with review of suspicous road sections
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner60
Improvement in near future
• With support of EC an Expert Assistence System will be developed
• Name of Project:RANKERS
• name of the tool: EXPERTAS.eBook
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner61
EXPERTAS.eBook Starting research by accident data
Neuenhagen
1
48
57
K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15
K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20
L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40
L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
Place to study
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner62
EXPERTAS.eBook: tool determines problem issues
Accident data
User input
rural urban
intersectionsection
traffic light No Traffic light
pedestrian
cyclists
cars
lorrys
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner63
Urban road – intersection without traffic light
Accident types
EXPERTAS.eBook: tool determines problem issues
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner64
EXPERTAS.eBook: tool makes proposals
Source:
GDV, Berlin
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner65
EXPERTAS.eBook: tool makes proposals
Source:
GDV, Berlin
© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner66
Final paradoxon
• All that we are doing with road safety is based on repetition of accidents
• All that what we want is
to stop repetition of accidents• Preventive road inspections may help ...