T H E P R O J E C T F O R A S S E S S M E N T O F E A R T H Q U A K E D I S A S T E R R I S K F O R T H E K A T H M A N D U V A L L E Y I N N E P A L

JICA Project Team

2nd Seminar-Seismic Risk Assessment

for Kathmandu Valley-

Ryoji Takahashi

11th April 2017

Introduction of the Project and Overall Progress

2

Background and Outline of Project

Main Activities and Progress

Towards Effective Utilization of Project

Outcomes

Contents

3

BackgroundIn 2002, JICA conducted “The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal”. Now, social environment has greatly changed since then.

Government of Nepal submitted a request to government of Japan for updating seismic risk assessment and, agreed to implement the project in January, 2015.

On 25 April 2015, Gorkha EQ occurred at the time just about to commence this project and caused severe damage both in and out of KV. However, there is still possibility of earthquakes around KV in the future and need to prepare.

JICA project team and counterparts discussed the new needs after the earthquake and started the project from May 2015 with modification on the project components agreed in June 2015.

Seismic Gap Kathmandu

Possibility of devastating earthquake

Damage of Gorkha Earthquake

First JCC meeting 4

Study Area Hazard and Risk Assessment :Kathmandu Valley

Pilot Activities:Three Pilot Municipalities: Lalitpur Metropolitan City, Bhaktapur Municipality,Budhanilkantha Municipality

Hazard and Risk Assessment :Kathmandu Valley

Pilot Activities:Three Pilot Municipalities: Lalitpur Metropolitan City, Bhaktapur Municipality,Budhanilkantha Municipality

Kathmandu Valley

KathmanduDistrict

LalitpurDistrict

BhaktapurDistrict

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Study AreaThe study area (KV) consists of 2 Metropolitan cities, 16 Municipalities and parts of 2 Rural Municipalities. Total wards: 232

BHAKTAPURBhaktapur MunicipalityChangunarayanMadhyapur Thimi MunicipalitySuryabinayak

KATHMANDUBudhanilkanthaChandragiriDakshinkaliGokarneshwarKageshwori ManoharaKathmandu MetropolitanKirtipur MunicipalityNagarjunaShankharapurTarkeshwarTokha

LALITPURBagmati Rural MunicipalityGodawariKonjyosom Rural MunicipalityLalitpur MetropolitanMahalaxmi

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Objectives and OutputsObjectives: To assess seismic hazard and risk based on scenario earthquakes with consideration of earthquake environment after the Gorkha Earthquake, and to develop disaster risk reduction and management plan for concrete and effective promotion of disaster risk reduction and management measures in the future.

Outputs:Output 1: Seismic hazard assessment based on the latest knowledge and detail

ground model for Kathmandu Valley

Output 2: seismic risk assessment based on the results of seismic hazard assessment, considering several earthquake occurrence scenes (date, time, etc.)

Output 3: Enhancement of knowledge for updating seismic risk assessment in accordance with the social environment change in the future

Output 4: Formulation of build back better recovery and reconstruction plan and disaster risk reduction and management plan making use of the seismic hazard and risk assessment results for pilot municipalities

Understanding Hazard Understanding Hazard

Understanding RiskUnderstanding Risk

Can be updated by Nepali SideCan be updated by Nepali Side

Plan and Implement to Reduce Estimated Damages

Plan and Implement to Reduce Estimated Damages

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WG2: RiskAssessment

WG3: Pilot ActivitiesWG1: Hazard Assessment

Main Activities

BBB Reconstruction Plan for Pilot Municipalities

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan

Seismic Hazard Assessment

Soil Investigation

Emergency Response

Chronicle Survey

Standard Operation Procedures

Building Damage and Inventory Survey

Scenario Earthquake

Seismic Risk Assessment

Evaluation of the Results of 2002 Project

Construction of Cut Model

Safe Kathmandu Campaign

Original Components

Supplement components

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Project Time Frame

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

131416

16-1 Profile and damage survey16-2 Vision on BBB plan16-3 Policy on BBB plan16-4 Action Plan on BBB plan

2020-1 Determination of scenario earthquakes20-2 Preliminary hazard analysis20-3 Hazard analysis (intensity, landslide, etc.)

2121-1 Building damage and building inventory21-2 Development of building inventory GIS DB21-3 Infrastructure and lifeline data21-4 Population and social economic data21-5 Investigation for risk assessment method

3131-1 Earthquake occurrence occasion31-2 Detail survey of typical buildings31-3 Updating fragility curves of 200231-4 Damage assessment for buildings31-5 Damage assessment for infrastructure31-6 Human damage assessment31-7 Economic damage assessment

3232-1 Development of DRRMP32-2 CB for local governmental officials32-3 CB for community based DRR

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Seismic risk assessment

Disaster risk reduction and management plan

Development of SOP

Construction of Model HouseUrgent resilient and safe Kathmandu campaignRecovery and reconstruction plan

Seismic hazard analysis

Data collection for seismic risk assessment

2nd Year

1st Year

Time Schedule　　　　　　　　Activities

2015 2016 2017 20181st Phase 2nd Phase

Implementation Period: May 2015 – April 2018

Seismic Risk Assessment: Feb. 2017Seismic Risk Assessment: Feb. 2017

Seismic Hazard Assessment: June 2016Seismic Hazard Assessment: June 2016

DRRM Plan: Dec 2017DRRM Plan: Dec 2017

SOP: September 2017SOP: September 2017

CBDRRM: Dec 2017CBDRRM: Dec 2017

Reconstruction Plan: May 2016Reconstruction Plan: May 2016

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Main Activities and Progress

WG1: Seismic Hazard Assessment

WG2: Seismic Risk Assessment

WG3: Pilot ActivitiesStandard Operation Procedure (SOP)

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan

Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (CBDRRM) Activities

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Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

Current Progress:

• All activities completed in February 2017

WG1 and WG2 Activity

Explain in Agenda No. 6Explain in Agenda No. 6

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Approach of Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

Earthquake Source

Amplification

Attenuation

Total damage is mainly affected by intensity of ground motion, vulnerability of structure and the number of vulnerable structure 12

Target Items for Seismic Risk Assessment

Building Road Bridge

Water & Sewage Power & Communication Human and Economic Loss

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Pilot Activities

• Formulation of BBB RR Plans for 3 Pilot Municipalities completed in May 2016

• Formulation of DRRMP, SOP and implementation of CBDRRM Activities are on going

WG3 ActivityFormulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)

Research existent materials in Nepal and Japan

Nepal

Japan

National Disaster Response Framework (MoHA)

STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES (SOPs)National Emergency Operation Center (NEOC)Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA)

Yokosuka City Fuchu City

Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)

Development First Draft SOP based on existent materials

First draft SOP was developed based on existent materials.

[Table of Contents]1. General Description of Manual2. Mobilization of officials3. Establishment of Emergency Response Head Quarter (ERHQ)4. Disaster Response Activities against Earthquake[Appendix]FORMAT A: Check ListFORMAT B: Disaster Information FormatFORMAT C: List of Evacuee at Evacuation ShelterFORMAT D: Personal Data of Officials

Contents of SOP will be discussed and modified on workshops in 3 municipalities.

Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)

Work Plan

2017

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

SOPGuideline

Workshop/ Meeting

Meetings* MoHA, DAO and 3 Municipals

Last Workshop* Invite MoHA, DAO and 3 Municipalities

Workshops in Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, Budhanilkantha*aim of this workshop is to discuss and modify SOP for localization

First Draft

Modification and localization

Modification and localization

Localization for 3 municipalities

Second Draft

Finalized

Workshops in 3 municipalities will be conducted in this period.

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Testing stage

MoFALD Local Disaster Risk Management Planning Guideline,

2011

Feedback

Implementation

Revision of Guidelineby Flagship 4 2. Upgrade of Annex : Template

(Table of Contents of Actual LDRMP)according to mainly Risk Assessment and Sendai Framework for DRR

3. Formulation of Technical Guideline to support formulation by Local Bodies

Approval of revised Guideline by National Steering Committee

4. Pilot Activities(LDRMP Formulation for 3 pilot muni.)

Finalization of Guideline

JICA Project Activity

[Separate Document]～May 2017

May～Dec 2017

～Apr 2017

Formulation of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Plan with Guideline(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017)

1. Integration of Risk Assessment part

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Utilization image of Risk Assessment Results for DRR (Summary)

Buildingdamage

Setting TargetValue for DRR

Setting TargetValue for DRR

Considering Countermeasures

to achieve targets

Considering Countermeasures

to achieve targetsReduce the number of

100 50 or more fewer

Reduce the number of Deaths

100 ⇒ 50 or more fewer

Reduce the number of

10,000 3,000

Reduce the number of Evacuees

10,000 ⇒ 3,000

Reduce the number of

2,000 1,000

Reduce the number of Heavy damage building

2,000 ⇒ 1,000

Seismic resistance of housing

Mason training

Building code implementation

Development of Evacuation sites

Securing Stockpiles

LDRMPLDRMP

Result of Risk AssessmentResult of Risk Assessment

Number of death

Target year 2030

Image of the Plan

20162016 20302030

Infrastructure, Lifeline Damage, Economic Loss

You can understand How much seismic resistance of housings

are required

You can understand How much stockpiles are required

Seismic resistance of Schools, etc.You can understand Risk and

can consider the Priority

CBDRRM Activities(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017, Implementation of BBB & DRRM Plan)

• CBDRRM Training for Municipality Officers and Relevant Stakeholders

Step 1 (20-22 Feb 2017)

• CBDRRM Activities in a selected pilot ward in each pilot municipality

Step 2 (Apr – Oct 2017)

• Feedback to the Local DRRM Plans

Step 3 (Nov – Dec 2017)

Flow of the Activities

1. Target Participants: 10 officers and relevant stakeholders who relate to DRRM Activities in each pilot municipality (Total 30)

2. Venue: Bhangeri Durbar Resort, Nagarkot3. Program (3 days)

Know Earthquake mechanism and risksLearn DRRM and CBDRRM incl. 9 Minimum Characteristics of CBDRRM in NepalCBDRRM MappingCBDRRM Planning

Pilot Wards/LocationLalitpur SMC Budhanilkantha Bhaktapur

Ward-8/ Gokul Chaur

Ward-2(former Ward 2 and 3)

Ward-3(former Ward 13 and 16)

Targets of the Activities(*due to restructuring of wards, the target areas were modified)

Step 1: Training for Municipality Officers

Details of the Activities

Step 2: CBDRRM Activities in Pilot Wards

1. Target Participants: 30 persons (members of CDMC, and other relevant residents) in a ward

2. Venue: appropriate place in the selected pilot ward3. Program (3 main events and follow-ups)

1st Workshop (2 days): Learning Risk and DRRM System in Community2nd Workshop (2 days): Formulation of CBDRRM Map3rd Workshop (1 day): Formulation of Action Plan/ DRRM Plan for Community

CBDRRM Step 1: 3-day CBDRRM Training for Municipality Officers and Relevant Stakeholders: 20-22 February 2017

1. Result30 participants from three pilot municipalitiesEnhanced capacities and ownerships of municipality officers on promoting CBDRRM activities in each municipalityCreated a basis for sustainable CBDRRM activities in each municipality with a sound understanding of the importance and needs of the activities of the municipality officers

Lecture by MoFALD Exercise for Community DRR Mapping

Discussion on Action Plan for Promoting CBDRRM

Certificate Distribution by JS of MoFALD

1st Workshop (2 day)Learning Risk and DRRM

System in Community1) Learning Earthquake Hazard and Risks 2) Learning Basics of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management3) Review and Discussion on Community's Current Situation of DRRM and HVCA Assessment

+Follow-up Activities ** (Apr-Jun) (Documentations, etc.)

2nd Workshop (2 days)Formulation of Community-

based DRRM Map1) DRRM Town Watching (Field Survey by Community)2) Community DRRM Mapping3) Discussion on Evacuation Plan

+Follow-up Activities (Jul-Aug) (Finalization of Map, Documentations, etc.)

3rd Workshop (1 day)Formulation of Action Plan/ DRRM Plan for Community

1) Disaster Response Plan for Community (Information Dissemination/ Response Teams/ Equipment and Stocks)2) Discussion on Action Plans for Improving DRRM System and Conditions in Community3) Ward-level DM Planning+Follow-up Activities (Sep-Oct)(Finalization of Plans, Approval procedure, etc.)

9 MCs: No. 2 & 3 9 MCs: No. 3, 4 & 9 9 MCs: No. 5, 6, 7 & 8

Risk Assessment Hazard & Risk Maps Local DRRM Plans

Pre-Coordination: Coordination for Designation of the Participants (CDMC Members + @) 9 MCs*: No. 1

Basic Information

*MCs: Minimum Characteristics of NRRC Flagship 4**Follow-up Activities will be done by the selected members

Feed

back

April (6-7: Lalitpur/ 9-10: Budhanilkantha/tbd: Bhaktapur) June-July August- September

CBDRRM Step 2: CBDRRM Activities in Pilot Wards

March

A Community Activity based on Action Plan (each pilot ward)

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Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes

Who will utilize the results of the projectStakeholders dealt with Disaster Risk Reduction and Management such as Central and Local Governments, Relevant Organizations including NGOs/INGOs, Research Institutes, Private Sector, Communities, and others are expected to make effective utilization of the results of the Project to reduce damages from the estimation results.

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How to ensure to take actions by various stakeholders to move forward to implement prevention and mitigation measures

Needless to say but without implementation, the same or the worse tragedy will occur by earthquakes. How to ensure to take actions by various stakeholders are the key. Not to scare people by the result of risk assessment, realize the scale of damages properly, and effective measures need to be proposed having incentives to the implementers.

Dr. Nishikawa, special guest speaker will talk more later!

Dr. Nishikawa, special guest speaker will talk more later!

Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes

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RemarksScenario Earthquakes are not the prediction of next earthquake.Based on the scenario earthquakes, hazard and risk are assessed for KV to utilize for the purpose of policy making and planning, and others for effective Disaster Risk Reduction and Management efforts.

RemarksScenario Earthquakes are not the prediction of next earthquake.Based on the scenario earthquakes, hazard and risk are assessed for KV to utilize for the purpose of policy making and planning, and others for effective Disaster Risk Reduction and Management efforts.

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