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Electrical Grid ExercisesElectrical Grid Exercises

https://drupal2.cs.sunyit.edu/sustainability/

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Background of ExerciseBackground of Exercise

• Part of SUNY, NYSERDA and NSF Projects

• Put learning science in a real world context– Interdisciplinary approach – Make experimentation possible and repetition

meaningful – Be able to answer the questions

• What is interdisciplinary approach and how can it help solve real world problems

• How can my knowledge be used in the real world and lead to meaningful employment

– Project Video

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Smart Grid BackgroundSmart Grid Background • Three major components make up any electrical grid:

– Power generation, – Long distant transmission and– Distribution to customers

• To effectively create and manage the electrical grid information on the environment is crucial. Doing this using modern information and communication technologies in realtime is term the Smart Grid

• To create the grid (power plants, transmission, load planning) knowledge of the environment factors, climatology and GIS is extremely important

• In real time grid management there needs to be a constant flow of information to aid in verifying the current load and power production and forecasts to prediction future electrical demand, transmission ability and production rates. Renewables make this much more challenging.

• Many new opportunities in this field for qualified and prepared environmental scientist, meteorologists and engineers.

– ~70% of the engineers and scientist supporting our electrical grid are now at or near retirement age– One of my SUNYIT engineering students said she obtained a job with National Grid because of the

insights she gained into how renewable energy fits into the Smart Grid management form working on this exercise.

Renewables and the Electrical Grid Renewables and the Electrical Grid

• When a resource reaches 1% of the total electrical production for a grid it must be closely managed.

• Renewables are sensitive to the weather & the environment, need meteorologist to help support.

Renewables and the Electrical Grid Renewables and the Electrical Grid

• Breakout of % within the renewable energy electrical power generation.

Renewables and the Electrical Grid Renewables and the Electrical Grid

• If we count hydro as a renewable has actually been down in terms of percent of electricity produced since 1950

2012

Hydro 7.0%

Wind 3.2 %

Bio 1.3 %

GeoT 0.4 %

Solar 0.2 %

1982

Hydro 15.0 %

Other < 1.0 %

1950

Hydro 30.0 %

Electrical Grid and Wind Electrical Grid and Wind

• Note that that wind has show an exponential growth in the US over the past 10 years.

Electrical Grid and SolarElectrical Grid and SolarElectricity Generated by Solar

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11

% of Energy from Solar

• Solar has show an exponential growth in the US over the past 10 years.

Electrical Grid and GeothermalElectrical Grid and Geothermal

• Geothermal grew exponentially from 1960 - 1994 but has dropped off since then

Relative Energy Reserves Relative Energy Reserves

16 TW/year

4 TW/year

4 TW/year

7 TW/year

50 TW/year Waves/tides 2 TW/year

215 TW

240 TW

200 TW

900 TW

• Solar power production tends to peaks during mid day and (obviously) no power over night)

• Wind energy power production tends to peaks at night because of conservation of momentum law and typical location and height of turbines.

• As the amount of a mixture of solar increases of larger and larger area the variability decrease, thus the predictability of the power coming from the two increases.

Renewable Energy Factors Renewable Energy Factors

Small amount, small area

Large amount, large area Power

Production

Time

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Electrical Grid Exercise StepsElectrical Grid Exercise Steps

1. Set up of the Electrical Grid• Demand and generation

3. Manage the Grid for next 24 hours• Decide on Conventional Power Call up

2. Estimate Weather Impacts• Demand and generation

4. Evaluate the Results • Demand, generation & weather

Link

• Base Electric Demand of City: 1500 MW/day

• Power Generation Peak Capacity: – Wind: 12 MW– Solar: 5 MW– Hydro: 15 MW– Nuclear: 26 MW (firm)– Conventional: 80 MW (firm but variable)

Other: 1 MW (firm)

Planning the Electrical Grid Planning the Electrical Grid MUST account for environment/climate impacts!MUST account for environment/climate impacts!

Managing the Electrical GridManaging the Electrical Grid MUST account for weather impacts!MUST account for weather impacts!

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Electrical Grid Planning and Electrical Grid Planning and Management ExercisesManagement Exercises

• Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning– Determine demand

http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm

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Electrical Grid Planning and Electrical Grid Planning and Management ExercisesManagement Exercises

• Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning– Determine demand– Power generation to meet – Transmission to get power to meet demand

http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm

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Electrical Grid Planning and Electrical Grid Planning and Management ExercisesManagement Exercises

• Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning– Determine demand– Power generation to meet – Transmission to get power to the demand

http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm

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Electrical Grid Planning and Electrical Grid Planning and Management ExercisesManagement Exercises

• Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning– Determine demand– Power generation to meet – Transmission to get power to the demand

http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm

Entered steps 1 - 4 of the exercise

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Electrical Grid Planning and Electrical Grid Planning and Management ExercisesManagement Exercises

• Stage 2: Day to day management weather impacts– Predict weather– Estimate weather impact on demand (load),

generation and transmission

Done steps 5 - 7 of the exercise

Step 8. using

"Initial Calculations" and reviewing data on 2nd page

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Electrical Grid Planning and Electrical Grid Planning and Management ExercisesManagement Exercises

• Stage 3: Decide conventional power call up

• Stage 4: Evaluate weather, load, power generation forecasts and conventional power call decision

Step 9: Page 2 using "Enter Conventional Power …" and "Final Calculations"

Step 10: Done by reviewing data on 3rd page

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Electrical Grid Training ExercisesElectrical Grid Training Exercises

Your Case Name

221500

Stage 1 PlanningStage 1 Planning

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12

5

15

Peak Power Generation Capacity

Stage 1 PlanningStage 1 Planning

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26

80

1

Stage 1 PlanningStage 1 Planning

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Stage 2 Predict Weather Stage 2 Predict Weather

Step 6: Make a 24-Hour Weather Forecast for Your Case Study Date:

How to make a weather forecast

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• http://www.hss-1.us/sunyit/solarcamp/cases/grid-op/wx-data-maps-grid-op-ex.htm

Using Weather Data & MapsUsing Weather Data & Maps

Training CaseSpring CaseSummer CaseFall CaseWinter Case

Weather Data and Maps for Selected Dates

Weather Forecasting Service  

Training CaseSpring CaseSummer CaseFall CaseWinter Case

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72515

300.00

Stage 2: Day to Day Management Stage 2: Day to Day Management Predict WeatherPredict Weather

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Page 2 Stage 2: Day to Day ManagementStage 2: Day to Day Management Estimate Weather ImpactsEstimate Weather Impacts

LoadLoad

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Stage 2: Day to Day ManagementStage 2: Day to Day Management Estimate Weather ImpactsEstimate Weather Impacts

Power GenerationPower Generation

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Stage 3: Decision on Stage 3: Decision on Conventional Power Call-up Conventional Power Call-up

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Stage 4: Evaluation of ResultsStage 4: Evaluation of ResultsDid you call up enough or too much power? Did you call up enough or too much power?

Student tot power fcst = F Non-con + con called up=1537.96 MWh = 1068.96 + 469 = 1537.96

Actual generation (load) needed based upon observed: 1625 MWh Net total power forecast over or under actual power needed:= Student tot power fcst - Actual generation (load) needed 1537.96 - 1625  = -87.0 MWhWhat Net total power forecast indicates: . This Net total power number is based upon the Student total power forecast as determined by the Student forecast of Non-conventional power, so th value just gives an indication of how good the forecaster was in determining the energy needed to meet the power demand (load). It is better for the number to be smaller, but it doesn’t matter which sign it is because this value does not represent if the power needs were actually met or not. This number could be used as tie breaker.

Con generation called up by student: 469 MWhConventional generation needed: 563.2 MWhCGen needed =  Actual -Load - Actual Non-con = 1625 MWh - 1061.76 = 563.24Conventional over or underproduced: -94.2 MWh469 MWh - 563.2 MWh = -94.2 MWh

What conventional power over or underproduced indicates: This uses the Actual Non-conventional power so it tells us if the student called up enough power to meet the actual community power needs. This is the only number that should be used to determine if the student met the power needs of the community or not.

Stage 4: Evaluation of ResultsStage 4: Evaluation of ResultsDid you call up enough or too much power?Did you call up enough or too much power?

Temperature-relatedStudent max temperature: 72 FObserved max temperature: 75 FStudent min temperature: 51 FObserved min temperature: 55 FStudent average temperature: 61.5 FObserved average temperature: 65 FStudent temperature load mod factor: 2.5375Observed temperature load mod factor: 2.625

Wind-relatedStudent mean wind speed: 5 mphObserved mean wind speed: 4 mphStudent wind power factor: 0.125Observed wind power factor: 0.1

Stage 4: Evaluation of ResultsStage 4: Evaluation of Results

Check out the impact of the forecast on Check out the impact of the forecast on the load and power generationthe load and power generation

Cloud-relatedStudent forecast mean daytime cloud cover:  30%Observed forecast mean daytime cloud cover: 30 %Student solar factor: 0.76 Observed solar factor: 0.76

Precipitation-relatedStudent precipitation: 0.00 inchesObserved precipitation: 0 inchesStudent hydro factor: 0Observed hydro factor: 1.5

Precipitation-relatedStudent precipitation: inchesObserved precipitation: 0.3 inchesStudent hydro factor: 1Observed hydro factor: 1

• Go back an retry entering 564 MWh for the conventional call up,

Stage 4: Evaluation of ResultsStage 4: Evaluation of Results

Refine your forecast and call up to see if Refine your forecast and call up to see if you can improve your resultsyou can improve your results

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Now Try the Summer, Winter Now Try the Summer, Winter Spring and Fall CasesSpring and Fall Cases

Goto Case InstructionsRaise hand for help!

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions 1. What is an electrical grid and what are the three major components

of any electrical grid? Ans: (1) power generation, (2) long distant transmission (3)

distribution to customers.

2. What is the current state of the electrical gird in the US. Ans: It is a mixture of state of the art and very outdated equipment

and methods. So although improving, still falls far short of what we would call a "Smart Grid" that uses information and communications technology to gather and act on information from both the energy suppliers and consumers in an automated fashion.

3. What is the current state of renewables in the US and their impact on managing the grid?

Ans: Renewables, particularly wind and solar power, which are highly dependent on the weather are increasing rapidly making the need for wind and solar power predictions necessary for effective managing the grid more.

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions

1. What is an electrical grid and what are the three major components of any electrical grid?

2. What is the current state of the electrical gird in the US.

3. What is the current state of renewables in the US and their impact on managing the grid?

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions

4. Which renewable energy is currently the most significant in terms of:

a. meeting current demand

b. helping meeting demand within the next ten years

c. helping meeting demand after ten years

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions 4. Which renewable energy is currently the most

significant in terms of: a. meeting current demand Ans: Hydro - largest

currently b. helping meeting demand within the next ten years

Ans: Wind fastest growing c. helping meeting demand after ten years Ans: greatest capacity for production and

distributions (on individual structures) on the long term.

5. What is the relationship of the smart grid and the integration of renewables into the electrical grid as a power generation source.

6. What weather variable did you find had the largest impact on load and what was the general relationship?

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions 4. Which renewable energy is currently the most significant in terms

of: a. meeting current demand Ans: Hydro - largest currently b. helping meeting demand within the next ten years Ans: Wind

fastest growing c. helping meeting demand after ten years Ans: greatest capacity for production and distributions (on

individual structures) on the long term.

5. What is the relationship of the smart grid and the integration of renewables into the electrical grid as a power generation source.

Ans: The only way to effectively integrate renewable is to use state-of-the art model, information and communications technologies for the predication and verification of the renewable power generation.

6. What weather variable did you find had the largest impact on load and what was the general relationship?

Ans: Temperature, the larger difference the average temperature was from 60 F then larger the load.

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions

7. Which renewable do you think would be most difficult to predict?

8. What did you find was the impact

of adding renewable energy generation source in terms of the ability of you to meet your communities energies needs?

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions 7. Which renewable do you think would be most difficult

to predict? Ans: Wind and solar power both have their

challenges in term of predicting future power generation. The best answer is the difficult in prediction wind versus solar power production is very regional dependent and so the answer to which is more difficult would be dependent on the location and also the skill set of the predicator method.

8. What did you find was the impact of adding renewable energy generation source in terms of the ability of you to meet your communities energies needs?

Ans: It typically makes the call-up decisions more challenging, requiring more knowledge and skill on the grid operators part.

.

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions

9. Can solar power plant generate power under overcasts conditions?

10. What is the relationship between solar

power and wind power in terms of time of peak generation?

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions 9. Can solar power plant generate power under overcasts

conditions? Ans: Yes, even though in the dead of winter under

cloudy skies the amount of solar power is reduced, significant solar energy can still be generated.

10. What is the relationship between solar power and wind power in terms of time of peak generation?

Ans: Solar power production tends to peaks during mid day and (obviously) no power over night). Wind energy power production tends to peaks at night because of conservation of momentum law and typical location and height of turbines.

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions 11. How will increasing the amount of wind and solar power

over a large area impact the variability and predictability of renewable power generation support a grid.

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Wrap Up QuestionsWrap Up Questions 11. How will increasing the amount of wind and solar power

over a large area impact the variability and predictability of renewable power generation support a grid.

As the amount of a mixture of solar increases of larger and larger area the variability decrease, thus the predictability of the power coming from the two increases.

• We have show if price is no object such as space and military operations the technology works - it is a matter of priorities and where should put our development resources/efforts

• Effort to build solar/wind plans to meet us 80 % demand over next 50 years, about same effort – expended to build all of the major sport stadiums in the

US over the past 50 years. – expended in US major motion films– times ten to create major video games over the last 20

years

Last ThoughtsLast Thoughts