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Dr Srbobran Branković: SERBIAN PUBLIC ON EURO-ATLANTIC

INTEGRATIONS

Savski trg 7, Belgrade Serbia, FR YugoslaviaTel. +38111 36-13-230, 642-042, Fax: 645-490, 659-920; E-mail: medium @eunet.yu; www.mediumindex.co.yu

Public Opinion, Market and Media Research Company

GALLUP INTERNATIONAL

Protest readines

s

Mistrust in the

neighboring

countries

Ethnic tension

Institutional

stability

Lef t radicalis

m

Social dissatisf

action

Opposing coop. w ith the

in'tl communi

y

Mistrust in the int'l communi

ty

0

2

4

6

8

Decem ber '02February '03April '03

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TOPICS:

• Rating of Western countries and institutions of international community – recent surveys

• Acceptance of cooperation with the West• Comparison between two indices• Attitudes towards regional cooperation• General context: Euro-Atlantic integrations

and other (internal) political issues

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“For each country, please tell me whether your opinion of it

is favorable or unfavorable ?”(end of April ’03)

46,1 55,3 51,6 42,2 37,818,4 17 9,3 18,1

42,6 32,2 33,4 42,1 41,2 71,5 73,7 80,9 70,5

0102030405060708090

100

UNFAVORABLEFAVORABLE

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OPINION ON THE WEST BEFORE AND AFTER THE ASSASSINATION

BEFORE THE ASSASSINATION (end of February '03)

36,748,2

3626,6 28

11 5 6

54,341,6

5361,7 57 74,9 83

87 86

17,3

0102030405060708090

100

UnfavorableFavorable

APRIL 2003

46,155,3 51,6

42,2 37,8

18,4 179,3

18,1

42,632,2

33,442,1

41,271,5 73,7

80,970,5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

UNFAVORABLEFAVORABLE

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COOPERATION WITH THE WEST: CLOSER ECONOMIC COOPERATION

DK / NA; 10,7

YES; 85,2

NO; 4,1

6

COOPERATION WITH THE WEST: MEMBERSHIP IN THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE

DK / NA; 17,6

YES; 76,6

NO; 5,8

7

COOPERATION WITH THE WEST: TO WORK

TOWARDS INCLUSION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

DK / NA; 18,8

YES; 73,7NO; 7,4

8

MILITARY INTEGRATION: PARTNERSHIP

FOR PEACE

DK / NA; 24,3 YES; 54,9

NO; 20,9

9

MILITARY INTEGRATION: TO JOIN NATO

DK / NA; 25,7

YES; 23,1

NO; 51,2

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ATTITUDES TOWARDS COOPERATION IN CONTEXT OF OTHER POLITICAL ISSUES

• Our company just has developed monthly based analysis of political and economic stability in the country

• The analysis is based on 8 topics, most relevant for political and economic stability: social dissatisfaction, confidence in institutions, protest readiness, (MIS)TRUST IN THE WEST AND THE INSTITUTIONS

OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, inter-ethnic tensions, acceptance of regional cooperation, level of social (left) radicalism

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NEW METHODOLOGY: COLLECTIVE INDICES

• All 8 topics have been analysed using large number of individual variables (questions)

• findings on individual countries and institutions rating have been summarized in joint index

• 10-rate indices: 10 – ideal situation when everybody has extremely unfavorable opinion on every country and institution; 0 - nobody has unfavorable opinion

• The results of contrasting scales may be directly compared

MISTRUST IN THE WEST AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

6,98 6,88 7,146,16

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

December '02 January '03 February '03 April '03

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COMPARITION BETWEEN NONCONFIDENCE AND RESISTANCE TO COOPERATION

MISTRUST IN THE WEST AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

6,98 7,146,16

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

December '02 February '03 April '03

RESISTANCE TO COOPERATION WITH THE WEST

3,77 3,282,25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

December '02 February '03 April '03

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CONCLUSION

• Citizens of SMN accept co-operation with the West

• Logic, which was unimaginable in Milosevic's time: partners in international relations don't need to love each other to be able to co-operate

• Readiness for military cooperation significantly lower

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INDEX OF OPPOSITION TO REGIONAL COOPERATION

2,6 2 1,530

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

December '02 February '03 April '03

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ACCEPTENCE OF EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATIONS: GENERAL CONTEXT

Protest readiness

Mistrust in the neighboring

countries

Ethnic tension

Institutional stability

Left radicalism

Social dissatisfaction

Opposing coop. with the in'tl communiyMistrust in the int'l

community

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

December '02 February '03 April '03

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NEW POLITICAL CIRCUMSTANCES

• Government anti-crime action has significantly changed political agenda in Serbia

• More and more people realize that “common” criminal and war criminal structures are mutually connected. In fact they are the same.

• Patriotic phraseology and anti-West propaganda is strongly compromised

• Still: the promotion of EURO-ATLANTIC ideas in SMN is much more difficult than in other countries of this region and Eastern Europe