1 dr. enrique ortega rodríguez unicamp, campinas, sp, brazil e-mail: new emergy indices for a...
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Dr. Enrique Ortega RodríguezUnicamp, Campinas, SP, Brazil
E-mail: <[email protected]>
New Emergy indices for a Prosperous Way Down
SIXTH BIENNIAL EMERGY RESEARCH CONFERENCE
December 14-16, University of Florida, Gainesville, 2009
Version 17 (15/01/10)
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It is not Capitalism, because this kind of system is based on “continuous growth”, “unconscious consumption” and do not have ethical values.
What’s a Prosperous Way Down (PWD)?
It is a sustainable interaction between the human beings and the environment
A PWD implies in: new social concerns and new commitments with nature (Biosphere and Ecosystems)
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1. To measure the world's renewable support capacity and to compare it with the increased support capacity obtained by using non-renewables.
Prosperous Way Down 5 main challenges:
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2. To forecast the population reduction during capitalism decline considering the adjustment to scarce resources offered by degraded ecosystems and a damaged biosphere
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5Time
Change from anaerobic to aerobic atmosphere.Thermo regulated system
- 10 000
Sustainable Development
0 - 4 billions years
Biodiversity, C immobilization
1500
2000 2100
Transition
Ecosystems recovery
Human growth and other species depletion without the use of fossil fuel
Industrial growth
Fair population adjustment
options
Business as usual (more growth)
Keep the system as it is now (without growth)
Resilience and Sustainability recovery through a Prosperous Way Down
homeostasis
extinction
Change of production-consumption model
3. To understand the human interaction with biosphere throughout history and study options for future:
collapse
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Hunters and gatherers
Agrarian Economy
Industrial revolution
Population explosion
Global Information
storm
EnvironmentLocal
available resources
Agriculture Industry Villages and cities Information
Fuels and minerals
The geographic space occupationhas changed through human history
Ecological rural communities (Eco-units)
Eco-units are agro-ecological systems with: - renewable net energy to support lower size cities- recycling loops from the cities to farms- preserved areas of native vegetation - new social relationships- integrated production
If the future could be based on a Prosperous Way Down
Figure adapted from the bookA Prosperous Way Downby H.T. Odum & E.C. Odum (2001)
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4. Understanding risks and proposing solutions. Restrain Global Warming(not using all C deposits)
Preserve Global Biodiversity(avoid species extinction)
Take care of allthe components in global society(eco-communities)
Water percolation, C sequester, Pollination, Biological control, Soil retention, Low
temperature and biodiversity maintenance
Heavy metals absorption, toxic chemicals transformation, C capture
from petrochemicals
A2A1
A3
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5. Finally, to propose new models for ecological rural production systems
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Food production can be made in:
Agro-ecological systems based on local renewable resources and local markets;
Agro-chemical systems based on external non renewable resources and external markets.
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Ecological corn production based on local renewables varies from 500 to 5000 kg/ha/year,
in parallel with the production of a great diversity of plants and animals.
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The agro-chemical systems productivity for corn varies from 2000 to 12 000 kg/ha/year. It represents a production increase of 2 to 3 times compared to ecological method!
Agro-chemical farms have a high environmental and social impact, and very low sustainability.
But these systems destroy native vegetation, biodiversity and ecosystem functions; they pollute, throw away a lot of small farmers and rural workers, concentrate income and depend on massive use of expensive imported chemicals.
They have high profit because their negative externalities are not charged! This is an important hidden fact that makes difference.
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Sustainable rural production depends on:
1. Solar energy (sun, wind, rain);
2. Water basin resources and environmental services (water, humus, sediments, regional biodiversity);
3. Soil minerals mobilized by local soil biota;
4. Nitrogen fixed by bacteria;
5. Environmental services derived from the maintenance of local biodiversity;
6. Animal and direct human work, infra-structure, organization and ecological culture.
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Use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and intensive mechanization (oil dependency);
Non-renewable changes in agriculture:
Establishment of expensive infra-structure;
Use of electricity, fuels;
Diverse chemical products (lime, plastics);
Seeds produced out of the region;
Animal feed prepared from subsidized grains;
Animal waste in excess.
Deforestation (clear cutting) and social exclusion;
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Sustainable agriculture system
R1
NR
Renewable assets
AgricultureClean water courses
Farm products
FR
Degraded energy
Environmental services
Nature´s renewable inputs that depend on local biodiversity existence Internal stocks
changes
OUTPUTR2
Renewable energy
INPUTS
NN
Human assets(up to a limit)
Renewable feedback from Human Economy
WT
Wastes
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Non-sustainable agriculture system including negative externalities
R1
NR
Natural Assets
FN
AgricultureTreated water courses
Agricultural productsDegraded energy
Environmental services after recovery
Feedback from external human economy(non-renewable)
Internal stocks
OUTPUT
C captured from gas emission
Restored Natural and Social Assets
Renewable Energy
INPUTS
NN
Human Assets Social welfare
WT
Wastes
FNFR
ADDITIONAL INPUTSNegative externalities care demands additional inputs that means increased costs!
R2
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An aggregated flows diagram should include the negative externalities care as well as the environmental services production
R
N
AgricultureInternal stocklosses
Agricultural products
F
Environmental services
INPUT
Internal stocks
OUTPUTI = R + N
M = MR + MNY = I + F
E = sum (Ei)
E = energy of products
Untreated flows(high impact)
R
Waste and contaminants
Treatments and special
care
Treated flows (low impact)
Gas emissions
F = M + S
S = SR + SN
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R
N
Agriculture
Internal stocklosses
Agriculture products
F
Environmental services
INPUT
Internal stocks
OUTPUT
I = R + NM = MR + MN
Y = I + F
E = sum (Ei)E = energy of products
Untreated flows(high impact)
R
Wastes and contaminants
Treated flows (low impact)
Gas emissions
F = M + S
S = SR + SN
Additional feedbackNative
vegetationR
Treatments & special care
A2
A1
A3
A2: Area to provide local and regional environmental services;
A1: Area for food, fiber, cattle and energy production;
A3: Area for social and environmental impact absorption.
A PWD farm demands an Ecological Engineering project:
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When the farms incorporate non renewables, the natural stocks are destroyed and the environmental services they produce are reduced.
RN
F
RRN
F
RR
N
F
RR
N
F
R
N
F
R
“Ancient” agro-ecological system
“Modern” agro-chemical system
Super intensified agro-chemical system
Low productivity system after erosion and fertility loss
Recovered agro-ecological system
Ecological transition
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R1
R2
R3
N
S
M
Negative externalities care demand additional services.
Non-renewables
Renewables
Agriculture becomes non-sustainable!
The emergy analysis of agriculture reveals the magnitude of input change in recent years and also a crisis in many places
Crisis
X=S’
Chemicals
Time
Aggregated emergy flows
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Environmental services
Natural stock
Waste
Emissions
Production (kg/ha/year)
Investment
Income concentration
Input price
Profit per hectare
Product price Profit margin
Social & climatic problems
Contaminants
CrisisOUTPUT ISSUES
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RN
F
Renewables / Total resources
Ren = renewability = ----RY
Inverse value of the efficiency
Tr = transformity = ----YE
Economy resources / Nature
EIR = investment ratio = ----FI
RN
F
R
N
F
R
FN
PX
Degraded system without fertility
Recovered agro- ecological system
Renewable resources
Products
Externalities
Natural stocks
Aggregated emergy flows
Emergy Indices
Economy Feedback
Original agro-ecological system
Agro-chemicalsystem
R
N
F
Changes along time
Predictions about emergy flows
Predictions about aggregated emergy flows
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Suggestions for Public Policy:
It should be necessary to learn how to measure environmental services (water percolation, carbon capture, genetic vigor maintenance, biologic control, ecological culture) and the environmental impacts care (pollution, soil erosion, cost of urban services for marginalized population, etc.)
R
N
Agriculture
Internal stocklosses
Agriculture products
F
Environmental services
INPUT
Internal stocks
OUTPUT
I = R + NM = MR + MN
Y = I + F
E = sum (Ei)E = energy of products
Untreated flows(high impact)
R
Wastes and contaminants
Treated flows (low impact)
Gas emissions
F = M + S
S = SR + SN
Additional feedbackNative
vegetationR
Treatments & special care
Payment of due environmental servicesCharge for negative externalities
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Non RenewableSupport
About the proper emergy indices (1)
NRp
N
p
R
p
TTE
Y
E
Y
E
YTr
321 RRRR
NR MMM NR SSS
NR YYY
F should include negative externalities, as additional S and M
F
N
F
R
F
NRF
F
YEYR
1
F
RRS
F
NNS
NR FFF
R should consider all the renewable flows
Tr should be divided into renewable and non renewable terms
Each M and S flow has a renewable fraction
In EYR, the terms N/F and R/F have oppose effects, then this indicator must be divided:
Direct, biodiversity dependent, regional flows
NSRSEYR 1
RenewableSupport
Therefore, F, Y and Tr also have a renewable fraction
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Y
SMR
Y
RRen RRi
N
Ri
FN
FRELR
renewablesnon
renewables
subsidiessales
esenv.servicproducts
received Y
producedY
EER
NR
SM
I
FEIR
R
SM
R
FEIR
YY
CWR
flowsrecycleinternal
The proper emergy indices (2)
Renewability should consider all renewables including MR and SR
ELR should consider
FR and FN
EER should Include: environmental services and subsidies
A new definition of EIR is possible: without N support
Recycling is very important in Agroecology there must be and indicator for this
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The End of OilActual and Projected Oil Production
Increasing:N/F, ELR, EIR, TrN, EER
Increasing: %Ren, R/F, TrR
Decreasing: %Ren, R/F, TrR
Decreasing:N/F, ELR, EIR, TrN, EER
Individualism, capitalismcompetition & exclusion
Community solutions
Emergy indices
Renewable resources
The use of R/F and N/F explains the trends better than EYR
The same can be said about TrN and TrR
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CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
2 p
pm
6 years?
There must be an inversion in the trend!
How?
Critical value
Safe level
The book A Prosperous Way Downsuggests a production-consumption model with social, ecological, cultural and political care. It could be based on eco-units for ecological ruralization (Folke Gunther)
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Native vegetation
Calves or young cows
Ethanol micro-distillery, local and regional agroindustry .
Minerals
People
Materialsand energy (external economy)
Formicide
External labor hand
Services (external economy)
Nitrogen from the
air
Sun, wind, rain
Water, soil, biodiversity,
micro-climate
Individual parcel
Grass lands, Grain lands, Bush lands
Eucaliptus
Sugar cane
Cattle
Internal consumption
Vinasse
Ashes
Products and services from native forests
Products from family parcel
Beef cattle (alive)
Ethanol (94%)
Fermented manure
Logs
(or dairy products)
ECO-UNIT: an integrated system for food, energy and environmental services
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Conclusionsa) For a PWD it will be necessary to adopt high
renewability production & consumption systems; therefore, it is convenient to study the prototypes that exist around the world.
b)These studies should include several frameworks: administrative, political, and psychological.
c)The study should use more complete energy flow diagrams and the proper emergy indices.
d)Its diagnosis should promote an open and broad discussion about the transition to sustainable societies all over the world, promoted by social movements, academy and governing authorities.
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Thanks for your attention!
Empower the peopleMy suggestion is not to
omit
include all negative externalities
and environmental services
the resilience threats
good information. Discover how to