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Demographic Demographic Statistics and TrendsStatistics and Trends

Knowing who is (and who isn’t) knocking at Knowing who is (and who isn’t) knocking at the college doorthe college doorBecky BrodiganMiddlebury CollegeCollege Board ForumOctober 31, 2005

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What goes into the equation?

High School Graduation Projections (by race and income) by region through 2018

College Going Rates Migration Data Enrollment Patterns by Race

and Gender

3

New England, Surrounding States, Regions and the United States Projections by Race/Ethnic Group

and Income Vary widely by racial/ethnic group

and region Overall picture not rosy

Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks in 2009 and doesn’t recover until 2018…

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Source: WICHE/The College Board

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HS Graduates in New England

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,0002004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-

122012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

Native American Asian American African American Hispanic

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HS Graduates in New England

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000110,000120,000

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

Native American Asian American African American Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic

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Changes in actual numbers from 2006 to 2108

-17,842

4,407

575

5,800

492

-10,829

(18,000)

(15,000)

(12,000)

(9,000)

(6,000)

(3,000)

0

3,000

6,000

White Asian American African AmericanHispanic Native American Overall

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Chance for college by age 19 in New England

49% 47%43%

39% 38%35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Massachusetts Connecticut NewHampshire

Maine Rhode Island Vermont

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SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity

1%5% 5%

86%

4%1%10% 13%

73%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Hispanic White Other

New England US

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Changes in HS graduates in the Northeast

616

23,474

-7,427

14,871

-63,851

-36,637

-6,343

-42,980

(70,000)(60,000)(50,000)(40,000)(30,000)(20,000)(10,000)

010,00020,00030,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White,Non-

Hispanic

Public Private Total

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Changes in HS graduates in the Pennsylvania

1261,637

-1,182

2,799

-15,178

-12,250

-2,705

-14,955

(20,000)

(16,000)

(12,000)

(8,000)

(4,000)

0

4,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Public Private Total

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Projections of HS Graduates in the South

4,972

26,00314,963

135,838

-21,726

134,637

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Total

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Chance for college by age 19 in South

28%31%

33% 33% 33%31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Nevada Florida Texas Louisiana Alabama Georgia

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Projections of HS Graduates in the Midwest

675

14,6574,025

42,088

-54,043

4,140

-2,256

1,884

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Public Private Total

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Projections of HS Graduates in the West

-67

19,344

-3,694

-49,615

50,157

-3,760

46,397

79,952

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Public Private Total

16

Chance for college by age 19 in the West

28%33% 35% 35% 35%

40%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

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Projections of HS Graduates in the United States

6,196

83,478

7,867

137,490

2,448

139,938

-189,235

272,749

(210,000)

(140,000)

(70,000)

0

70,000

140,000

210,000

280,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Public Private Total

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Emigration of College Students 57%

48% 46%42% 42%

32%

11% 11%8%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Verm

ont

New

Ham

pshire

Conn

ectic

ut

Rhod

e Isla

ndMain

e

Massach

usett

s

Arizo

na

Texa

s

California US

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Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State70%

51%

39%

67%

40%

25%

8% 8%

20%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

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Levels of Education for the High School Class of 1992 ( by 2000)

51%

38%

6%

19%

53%

16%20%

51%

20%17%

33% 35%

6%

35%41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No College Some College BA

Native American Hispanic African American Caucasian Asian American

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Four-Year College and University Enrollment Rates of 1992 HS Graduates by Family Income and Math Test Scores

15%

33%

68%

14%

37%

69%

21%

47%

78%

27%

59%

84%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Lowest Third Middle Third Top Third

Lowest IncomeSecond QuartileThird QuartileHighest Income

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Participation by Low-income

All New England states above the national average of 25%

Lowest rates are in the south and west

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College going rates: Where are the boys? Males outnumber female through age

30 – for every 100 girls born, 105 males are born

Males account for less than 50% of high school graduates

Males account for 47% of college freshmen

Continuation rates vary by gender – men around 61% and women 67%

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What about boys? Among 15-24 year olds, suicide rates are

almost 6 times higher for boys than for girls There are 707 prisoners for every 100,000

people and 90% are male The male voting rate has declined from 72%

to 53% from 1964 to 2000 – twice the decline in the female voting rate

Do/will males have an advantage in college admissions?

From Fact Sheet: What’s Wrong with the Guys? Thomas G. Mortenson

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SAT Takers by Gender

45% 46%

54% 54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

US New England

Men Women

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Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Institution Type

50%43% 42%

38%

57% 59%62%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

VS PrivateUniversities

Private Colleges Black Colleges Catholic

Men Women

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Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender and Region

45% 46% 45%43%

54% 55%57%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Eastern Midwestern Southern Western

Men Women

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Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Income

7%

12%

17%

12%14%

19%17%

15%

19%

14% 15% 14%13%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Less than20

20 to 40 40 to 60 60 to 75 75 to 100 100 to 150 150 andabove

Men Women

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Fall 2004 Freshmen Average HS Grades by Gender

20% 21% 20%

26%

20%

27%

39%

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

A or A+ A- B+ B or lower

Men Women

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NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time

45% 44% 45% 45% 46% 48% 45% 45%

55% 56% 55% 55% 54% 52% 55% 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Conn

ectic

ut

Main

eMass

NH RI

Verm

ont

Total

Total

US

Men Women

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NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time

62%68%

62% 63% 63% 66% 63%59%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Conn

ectic

ut

Main

eMass

NH RI

Verm

ont

Total

Total

US

Men Women

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Enrollment at Liberal Arts Colleges

54%59% 60%

66%61%

57% 60% 58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Intern

ation

al

African

American

Native

American

Asian A

merican

Hispan

icWhit

e

Unkno

wnTota

l

Men Women

33

Enrollment at Ivy League

58%51% 50% 52%

46%44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Intern

ation

al

African

American

Native

American

Asian A

merican

Hispan

icWhit

e

Men Women

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Doctoral (minus technical universities)

62%56% 52%

57%52%

44%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Intern

ation

al

African

American

Native

American

Asian A

merican

Hispan

icWhit

e

Men Women

35

Percent of Total Undergraduate State AidNot Based on Need, 1982 to 2002 (Source: College Board)

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Summary HS graduation projections

in NE going down over all Increases in groups with lower college

continuation rates Increasing in states that do not export

students Male/Female ratios not likely to improve Colleges in NE going to have to work

harder just to maintain market share – expand marketing efforts and develop new strategies

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What do these colleges have in common? Bradford College Westbrook College Ricker College Trinity College Notre Dame

No longer exist or exist under a different name

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ReferencesPublications Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October 2004, November 2004 and December 2004 Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women, NCES. College Board Data and Reporting Products, Integrated State Summary Report New England -

All Schools 2004 College-Bound Seniors: A Profile of SAT Program Test Takers Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal

Year 2002 The Condition of Education, 2004: National Center for Education Statistics Education Pays 2004: The College Board Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage? American Council

on Education Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and updated tables and figures, August 2003. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and

Race/Ethnicity: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, December 2003. The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2004, Cooperative Institutional Research

Program, Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, December 2004.Books Mismatch: The Growing Gulf Between Men and Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003. Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson,

Ballantyne, 2000. Conditions of Access: Higher Education for Lower Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor,

Praeger/ACE, 2002. America’s Untapped Resource: Low Income Students in Higher Education, Richard D,

Kahlenberg, Editor, The Century Foundation, 2004. The Source of the River: The Social Origins of Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and

Universities; Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z. Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer, Princeton University Press, 2003.

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