1 crgaqs: meteorological modeling prepared for southwest clean air agency 19 june 2006 prepared by...
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CRGAQS: CRGAQS: Meteorological ModelingMeteorological Modeling
prepared for Southwest Clean Air Agency
19 June 2006
prepared by Alpine Geophysics, LLCENVIRON International Corp
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MM5 SimulationsModel Option MM5 Simulation
Run1 Run2 Run3(UW Forecast)
Run 4(PortlandSIP)
Run 5(2 +surf)
Run 6*(2+surf+BM)
Land Surface Model Pleim-Xiu Pleim-Xiu 5-Layer Soil NOAH Pleim-Xiu Pleim-Xiu
Planetary Boundary Layer
ACM ACM MRF MRF ACM ACM
Radiation RRTM RRTM CCM2 RRTM RRTM RRTM
Shallow Convection None None None None None None
Cumulus Parameterization
KF 2 (36/12) KF 2 (36/12)
KF (36/12)
KF (36/12)
KF 2 (36/12)
BM (36/12)
Moist Physics Reisner I Reisner I Reisner II GSFC Graupel Reisner I Reisner I
Analysis Nudging Surface
None None None None U/V U/V
Analysis Nudging Aloft
U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q
Surface Obs Nudging
None U/V (No Gorge)
None None U/V (w/Gorge)
U/V (w/ Gorge)
* Run6 similar to WRAP configuration
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Analysis RegionsAnalysis Regions
WG = Western Gorge
CG = Central Gorge
EG = Eastern Gorge
PS = Puget Sound
NC = North Coast
WV = William
EC = East of Cascades
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August 2004 4km Humidity August 2004 4km Humidity Bias/ErrorBias/Error
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August 2004 4km Humidity August 2004 4km Humidity MeanMean
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August 2004 4km TemperatureAugust 2004 4km TemperatureBias/ErrorBias/Error
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Aug 2004 4km TemperatureAug 2004 4km TemperatureMeanMean
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Aug 2004 4km WindAug 2004 4km WindRMSE/ErrorRMSE/Error
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Aug 2004 4km WindMean Speed
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Aug 2004 12km HumidityBias/Error
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Aug 2004 12km HumidityMean
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Aug 2004 12km TemperatureBias/Error
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Aug 2004 12km TemperatureMean
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Aug 2004 12km WindRMSE/Error
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Aug 2004 12km WindSpeed Mean
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Nov 2004 4km HumidityBias/Error
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Nov 2004 12km HumidityMean
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Nov 2004 4km TemperatureBias/Error
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Nov 2004 4km TemperatureMean
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Nov 2004 4km WindRMSE/Error
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Nov 2004 4km WindMean Speed
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Nov 2004 12km HumidityBias/Error
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Nov 2004 12km HumidityMean
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Nov 2004 12km TemperatureBias/Error
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Nov 2004 12km TemperatureMean
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Nov 2004 12km WindRMSE/Error
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Nov 2004 12km WindMean Speed
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MM5 Configuration Selection
Based on Overall Synthesis of the Candidate Simulations, Run 6 is chosen as best performing
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Run 6 Performance Evaluation
Qualitative Precipitation Analysis Comparison with 0.25o (~27km) CPC Episode Total CPC analysis does not extend over water
Gorge Mean Value Analysis Compare Time Series of Spatial Mean Model/Obs.
Wind Vector Analysis
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Qualitative Precipitation4km Aug 2004
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Qualitative Precipitation12km Aug 2004
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Qualitative Precipitation4km Nov 2004
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Qualitative Precipitation12km Nov 2004
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Qualitative PrecipitationSummary
MM5 generally captures spatial extent and magnitude of precip.
MM5 shows smaller scale structure that can not be verified with the coarse CPC analysis
MM5 underestimates precip. in: Southeastern Oregon in August Oregon coast and Portland in November
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Aug. 2004 Mean Humidity4km Gorge
Predicted/Observed Humidity
0
5
10
15
20
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
g/k
g
ObsHum PrdHum
Predicted/Observed Humidity
0
5
10
15
20
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
g/k
g
ObsHum PrdHum
Predicted/Observed Humidity
0
5
10
15
20
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
g/k
g
ObsHum PrdHum
West
Central
East
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Aug. 2004 Mean Temperature4km Gorge
Observed/Predicted Temperature
270
280
290
300
310
320
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
K
ObsTemp PrdTemp
Observed/Predicted Temperature
275280285290295300305310
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
K
ObsTemp PrdTemp
Observed/Predicted Temperature
270
280
290
300
310
320
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
K
ObsTemp PrdTemp
West
Central
East
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Aug. 2004 Mean Wind Speed4km Gorge
Observed/Predicted Windspeed
05
10
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
m/s
ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
Observed/Predicted Windspeed
05
10
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
m/s
ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
Observed/Predicted Windspeed
01020
8/ 5
8/ 6
8/ 7
8/ 8
8/ 9
8/1
0 8
/11
8/1
2 8
/13
8/1
4 8
/15
8/1
6 8
/17
8/1
8 8
/19
8/2
0 8
/21
8/2
2 8
/23
8/2
4
m/s
ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
West
Central
East
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Nov. 2004 Mean Humidity4km Gorge
Predicted/Observed Humidity
0
2
4
6
8
10
11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
g/k
g
ObsHum PrdHum
Predicted/Observed Humidity
0
2
4
6
8
11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
g/k
g
ObsHum PrdHum
Predicted/Observed Humidity
0
2
4
6
8
11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
g/k
g
ObsHum PrdHum
West
Central
East
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Nov. 2004 Mean Temperature4km Gorge
Observed/Predicted Temperature
260265270275280285290295
11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
K
ObsTemp PrdTemp
Observed/Predicted Temperature
260265270275280285290295
11/ 4
11/ 5
11/ 6
11/ 7
11/ 8
11/ 9
11/1
011
/11
11/1
211
/13
11/1
411
/15
11/1
611
/17
11/1
8
K
ObsTemp PrdTemp
Observed/Predicted Temperature
260265270275280285290295
11/ 4
11/ 5
11/ 6
11/ 7
11/ 8
11/ 9
11/1
011
/11
11/1
211
/13
11/1
411
/15
11/1
611
/17
11/1
8
K
ObsTemp PrdTemp
West
Central
East
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Nov. 2004 Mean Wind Speed4km Gorge
Observed/Predicted Windspeed
0
5
11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
m/s
ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
Observed/Predicted Windspeed
0
5
10
11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
m/s
ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
Observed/Predicted Windspeed
0
5
10
11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
m/s
ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd
West
East
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Mean Value AnalysisSummary
MM5 generally overestimates humidity in August and underestimates in November
Significant humidity phase difference in eastern gorge in mid-August.
MM5 tends to underestimate daytime and overestimate nighttime temperatures Typical pattern but larger than normal
Model overestimating temperatures in central gorge early in Nov. episode.
Wind speed trends generally captured
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Wind Vector Analysis
Hourly wind vectors have been prepared Brief subset for presentation
Black vectors MM5 winds Red vectors Obs. winds
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Aug 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Aug 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector
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Wind Vector AnalysisSummary
MM5 generally captures up-gorge flow in Aug. and down-gorge flow in Nov.
Flows follow gorge quite closely Gorge monitors show more variation between
nearby monitors than MM5 fields Indication that obs. influenced by small scale features
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SummarySummary
Significant Effort was put into determining the best performing options in MM5
MM5 is still performing less well than performance benchmarks based on historic MM5 applications. Gorge more complex than other areas. Monitors more likely to be
influenced by small scale flows Gorge analysis regions have fewer sites than were used for benchmarks Nov. case has weak synoptic forcing. MM5 traditionally performs better
under stronger forced conditions
MM5 Captures August Up-gorge flows MM5 Captures November Down-gorge flows
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Next StepsNext Steps
Prepare emissions using WRAP 2002 inventory projected to 2004 replaced by ODEQ/SWCAA data for selecteed WA and OR Counties 36 and 12 km WRAP 2002 projected to 2004 4 km add OR and WA inventories
• Some issues/inconsistencies with OR/WA data
CMAQ and CAMx base case modeling and model performance evaluation
Evaluate need/usefulness of 1.33 km MM5 modeling