1. content water management in turkey studies on climate change impacts into water resources 2
DESCRIPTION
3 Annual Precipitation : 501 billion m 3 Annual Usable Surface Water : 98 billion m 3 Annual Usable Ground Water : 14 billion m 3 Annual Total Usable Water : 112 billion m 3 Population of Turkey (2010) : 74 million Annual Water Amount per person : ~1500 (m 3 /person-year) WATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEYTRANSCRIPT
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CONTENT
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Annual Precipitation : 501 billion m3
Annual Usable Surface Water : 98 billion m3
Annual Usable Ground Water : 14 billion m3
Annual Total Usable Water : 112 billion m3
Population of Turkey (2010) : 74 million
Annual Water Amount per person : ~1500 (m3/person-year)
WATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEYWATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEY
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Irrigation : 34 billion m3 (74%) Irrigation : 72 billion m3 (%64)
Domestic : 7 billion m3 (%15) Domestic : 18 billion m3 (%16)
Industry : 5 billion m3 (%11) Industry : 22 billion m3 (%20)
TOTAL : 46 billion m3 TOTAL : 112 billion m3
SECTORAL WATERSECTORAL WATER CONSUMPTION IN TURKEYCONSUMPTION IN TURKEY
2010 2010 2023 2023
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WATER RELATED INSTITUTIONS IN TURKEY( CURRENT STRUCTURE )
PRIME MINISTRY MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT
MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRSWATER AFFAIRS
•DG Water Management•General Directorate of Combating Desertification and Erosion•General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks
•GD of SHW•GD of Forestry•GD of Meteorology
MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF FOOD, FOOD,
AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE AND AND
LIVESTOCKLIVESTOCK
•General Directorate of Agriculture Reform•General Directorate of Fishery and Fishery Products
MMIINNIISTRY OF STRY OF ENERGY AND ENERGY AND
NATURAL NATURAL RESOURCESRESOURCES
General Directorate of
Mineral Research and
Exploration
MMIINNIISTRY OF STRY OF ENVENVIIRONMENT RONMENT
AND AND URBANURBANIIZATZATIION ON
• GD of Environment Management
• GD of Enviromental
Impact Assesment and
Planning• GD of Disaster
Affairs
•GD of Provincial Bank•GD of Natural Heritage
MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF INTERNAL INTERNAL AFFAIRSAFFAIRS
•GD of Local Authorities
•GD of Provincial administration
MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF HEALTHHEALTH
•Presidency of Sanitation Centre
•Presidency of Health Group
MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND CULTURE AND
TOURIZMTOURIZM
GD of Publicity
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MAIN DUTY
• Policy development for the protection, development and usage of water resources
• And to coordinate water management issues both at national and international scale.
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FIGHTING AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
• Mitigation– Controlling, decreasing and absorption of
the GHGs
• Adaptation– The process of combatting against climate
change impacts…
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NEED FOR ADAPTATION
• Even in the case of stopping all GHG emissions, climate will continue to change.
• Poor people and poverty areas will mostly be affected.
• Climate change is a development problem.
To minimize economical, social and environmental effects and
risks
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HOW TO ADAPT?
CLCLIIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS MATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESON WATER RESOURCES
PPROJECTROJECT
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25 River Basins
Covering 783.562 km²
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CLCLIIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER MATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESRESOURCES
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Started on 18th December 2013, the project aims to determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on surface and
underground water bodies to identify the adaptation activities, implementation region based on river
basin districts covering whole Turkey.
It is envisaged to be completed in July,2016.
CLCLIIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER MATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESRESOURCES P PROJECTROJECT
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PROJECT STEPS
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Climate Projections
Hydrological Modelling
Hydraulic Modelling
Sectoral Vulnerability
Adaptation Measures
ClimaHydro Database
Projections for the period of 2015-2100
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3 GCMs and Regional Climate Model
RCP4.5 mild scenario RCP8.5 severe
scenario
2 hydrological models are being run: SWAT WEAP
Projection period: 2015-2100 Reference period: 1971-2000
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HadGEM2SMPIIPSL
HecRas
http://iklim.ormansu.gov.tr/
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MPI Model_Mean Temperature MPI Model_Mean Temperature RF ve RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)RF ve RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)
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MPI Model_Total PrecipitationMPI Model_Total PrecipitationRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)
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HadGEM2-ES Snow CoverHadGEM2-ES Snow CoverRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2050)RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2050)
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HadGEM2-ES Snow CoverHadGEM2-ES Snow CoverRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2050-2100)RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2050-2100)
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Projections for “Climate Indices”Indicator Name DefinitionFrost days Annual count when TN(daily minimum)<0ºCSummer days Annual count when TX(daily maximum)>25ºCCool nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentileCool days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentileWarm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentileWarm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentileSummer days Annual count when TX > 25ºC
Warm spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX>90th percentile
Cold spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN<10th percentile
Diurnal temperature range Monthly mean difference between TX and TNMax 5-day precipitation Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitationMax 1-day precipitation Monthly maximum 1-day precipitationNumber of heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PR >= 10mmNumber of very heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PR >= 20mmNumber of very heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PR >= 25mm
Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutive days with PR < 1mm
Consecutive wet days Maximum number of consecutive days with PR >= 1mm
•17 indices
•30 years mean
•Map display
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HadGEM2-ES FD0 Climate Index RF ve RCP8.5 Number of Frost Days_ 30 years
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HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index RF ve RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days_30 years
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Temperature Indices-I
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Frost Days
Cold Nights
Cold Days
Cold Air Wave
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Temperature Indices-II
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Hot Nights Hot Days Heat
Wave
Summer Days-25
Summer Days-35
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Precipitation Indices
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5 Days Max Precip.
1 Day Max
Precip.
Consecutive Wet
daysHeavy
Precip.DayVery Heavy Precip.Day
Consecutive Dry Days
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Water Potential
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Total water potential
1 GCM
2 scenario
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Hydraulic Projections
HecRAS model
For this basin, 3 control cross sections
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Doğu Akdeniz River BasinCheck Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000 HadGEM2-ES_RCP4.5
%5
%50%95
Flow Continuity ProjectionsPeriod/Flowrate (m3/sec)
High Flowrate (5%)
Medium Flowrate (50%)
Low Flowrate (95%)
Reference 272 84 252015-2039 361 107 252040-2069 353 89 202070-2099 302 79 18RISK FOR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
DISASTERS
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Flow Continuity CurvesObserved vs Model Comparison
Doğu Akdeniz River BasinCheck Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000
NO
OVERESTIMATION/
UNDERESTIMATION
OF THE RISKS
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Flow Continuity Projections At Estuary
RE-CONTROLLING THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE
PROJECTIONS
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Mean Flowrate at Estuary
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INTERMODEL COMPARISON
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Sectoral Vulnerability
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Probable adaptation measures to be proposed or be obliged::
Flood Management Plans Drought Management PlansGrey water incentivesGood agricultural practicesCrop incentives
Soft Measures
Rainwater harvestingFlood protection measuresGradual decrease in distribution network losses
Hard Measures
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Last Words..
• Climate Risk Management is vital in order to adapt.
• Best adaptation measures are based on reliable impact and sectoral vulnerability analysis.
• Climate change projections should be integrated at all levels of planning studies.
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