1 climate do we know where we are headed? karen a. harbert institute for 21 st century energy 29...
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CLIMATECLIMATEDo we know where Do we know where
we are headed?we are headed?
Karen A. HarbertKaren A. HarbertInstitute for 21Institute for 21stst Century Energy Century Energy
http://www.energyxxi.orghttp://www.energyxxi.org
29 May 200929 May 2009
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Where We Are: U.S. GHG EmissionsWhere We Are: U.S. GHG Emissions
Source: EPA , Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2007 (Draft)
U.S. net GHG gross emissions are about 6 gigatons a year Gross GHG emissions about 7 gigatons.
U.S. GHG emissions account for about 15% of global emissions (based on IPCC global estimate of 49 GtCO2 eq. in 2004).
U.S. net GHG emissions were 3% lower in 2007 compared to 2000.
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45.1%
21.3%
9.9%
9.6%
9.4%
9.2%
6.8%
6.4%
3.9%
4.8%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.7%
-2.9%
-3.0%
-6.3%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
China **
Canada
India **
Indonesia **
South Africa **
Brazil **
Mexico **
South Korea **
Russia
Australia
EU-27
Italy
Japan
EU-15
Germany
UK
USA
France
Where We Are: Recent Performance Where We Are: Recent Performance Comparable to International PeersComparable to International Peers
Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/4303.php); IEA Online Energy Services <http://data.iea.org/ieastore/statslisting.asp>.** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used.
Changes in Net GHG Emissions 2000-2006 for 17 Major Economies
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Renewable Fuels* +500% by 2022; 36 billion gallons; ~15% supply
Vehicle Fuel Economy* +40% by 2020; 35 mpg; avoid 8.5 billion gallons a year; ~5% supply
Lighting Efficiency* +25-30% by 2012-2014; +70% by 2020
Appliance Efficiency* +45 new standards
Federal Government Operations* (bigger than most countries) 30% Efficiency and 20% Renewable Fuel Use by 2015
Accelerated HCFC Phaseout More reduction than Kyoto; includes developing countries
Renewable Power 26 States; 500% increase to date; Federal government help
Building Codes Federal government promoting new 30% model code
* Preliminary estimates show that, combined, these mandates will preventabout 5 gigatons of GHG emissions through 2030.
U.S. Mandatory Programs Since 2001 U.S. Mandatory Programs Since 2001 Eight Most Significant SectorsEight Most Significant Sectors
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Obama Administration Emission Obama Administration Emission Reduction GoalsReduction Goals
Mid-Term Goal: Cut U.S. emissions to 14% below 2005 level To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈1 gigaton of GHG emissions by 2020.
Long-Term Goal: Cut emissions 83% below 2005 level To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈6 to 7 gigatons of GHG emissions by
2050.
If the U.S. achieved an 80% reduction in emissions in 2050: U.S. GHG emissions intensity would decline from about 0.65 to ≈0.04 metric
tons CO2 eq. per constant $1,000 GDP.
U.S. GHG emissions per capita would decline from about 24 tons CO2 eq. in 2005 to 2.8 tons in 2050.
Is such a transition of energy systems over a 40 year timeframe Is such a transition of energy systems over a 40 year timeframe possible without severe economic harm?possible without severe economic harm?
And just how big is a gigaton of COAnd just how big is a gigaton of CO22??
Sources: EIA, AEO 2009, Year-to-Year Table 18 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/aeotab_18.xls>; EIA Greenhouse Gas Inventory, Table 5 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl5.xls>; U.S. Census, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050 <http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/nation/summary/np2008-t1.xls>.
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How Big is One GigatonHow Big is One Gigaton11 of CO of CO22??
1Gigaton = 1 billion metric tons.2 Based on current technology and U.S. data.Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.)
Today’s Technology
Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton per Year of Mitigation
Coal-Fired Power Plants
Build 320 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage (73% CF)—the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate generating capacity
Geologic Sequestration
Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project (1.0 MtCO2/year)
NuclearBuild 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1.0-GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)
Electricity from Landfill Gas Projects
Install 7,700 “typical” landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3-MW projects at non-regulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electric generation
EfficiencyDeploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg (12,000 miles per year)
Wind EnergyInstall 127,500 wind turbines (2.0-MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage
Solar PhotovoltaicsInstall 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage (10% cell DC eff’cy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv. eff’cy).
Biomass Fuels from Plantations
Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa (about 200 million acres)
CO2 Storage in New Forest.
Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State of Washington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)
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Some Perspective: Estimated U.S. Emissions Some Perspective: Estimated U.S. Emissions Intensity & Emission per Capita in 2050Intensity & Emission per Capita in 2050
An estimated 0.04 metric tons CO2 eq. per $1,000 of GDP in 2050 would be comparable to the CO2 emissions intensities of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Guinea, Laos, Uganda in 2005.
An estimated 2.8 metric tons per capita in 2050 would be comparable to the CO2 emissions per capita of Armenia, Gabon, Jordan, North Korea, Turkey in 2005.
Metric Tons CO2 per Constant $1,000 of GDP (Using PPP)
Sources: EIA, World Carbon Intensity—World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels Using Purchasing Power Parities, 1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1pco2.xls>; EIA, World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls>. NOTE: Data for countries other than U.S. includes CO2 from fossil fuel combustion only. The inclusion of other GHGs would raise these figures only modestly, if at all.
Countries With CO2 Emissions Intensities <0.1 Metric Tons per $1,000
of GDP in 2005.
Metric Tons per Capita
Countries With per Capita CO2 Emissions >2.5 and <3.5 Metric Tons
in 2005.
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Energy vs. Climate Change: Where Energy vs. Climate Change: Where is public opinion?is public opinion?
A January 2009 Pew Research Center poll found that climate change ranked dead last among 20 issues of concern to Americans.
Energy ranked number 6.
A March 2009 Gallup poll found a majority of Americans believe the seriousness of
global warming is either correctly portrayed in the news or underestimated. However,
41% now say it is exaggerated, the highest level of public skepticism in more than a decade of Gallup polling on the subject.
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Impact of Carbon Prices Energy on CostsImpact of Carbon Prices Energy on Costs
Additional Cost to Average 2008 Energy Prices Under Different Carbon Prices
(Percent Increase)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
ImportedCrude Oil
Distillate FuelOil
(Residential)
Low SulfurDiesel
MotorGasoline
Jet Fuel Residual FuelOil
Coal (ElectricPower)
Natural Gas(Residential)
Natural Gas(ElectricPower)
Electricity(Ave Price All
Sectors)
Per
cen
t In
crea
se
$100 per Metric Ton
$50 per Metric Ton
$20 per Metric Ton
Sources: EIA, Documentation for Emissions of GHGs 2006, Table 6-1 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/documentation/pdf/0638(2006).pdf>; EIA AEO 2009, Supplemental Table 128, <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/suptab_128.xls>; EIA AEO 2009, Year-by-Year Reference Tables 8, 12, 13, 15 & 18 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>. NOTE: Uses average prices in 2008 as a baseline.
Coal, which has a high carbon content, will be hit hardest.
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Why Engage Developing Countries? Most Future Why Engage Developing Countries? Most Future Emissions Will Come From Developing Countries:Emissions Will Come From Developing Countries:
Energy-Related COEnergy-Related CO22 Emissions by Region 1990 - 2050 Emissions by Region 1990 - 2050
Over 80% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between 2005 and Over 80% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE
Asia.Asia.
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
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Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions—Scale of Reductions Emissions—Scale of Reductions
Needed to Achieve a 50% Reduction by 2050Needed to Achieve a 50% Reduction by 2050
26.6 Gt/yr
61.7 Gt/yr
13.3 Gt/yr
+132% -78%
2005 Emissions 2050 ReferenceEmissions
2050 GlobalCO2 Emissions at 50% of
2005 Emissions
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(G
t C
O2/y
r)To halve energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 relative to
2005 would require reductions/avoidances in excess of 45 gigatons—equivalent to over 7 times current U.S.
emissions.
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
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2050 Reference Emissions
2050OECD
ReferenceEmissions
OECD Countries Non-OECD Countries
2050Non-OECDReferenceEmissions
OECD Emissions at20% 2005 Emissions
OECD Emissions at50% 2005 Emissions
-100%
-86%
-65%
-69%
-75%
-84%
2050OECD
Emissions
2050Non-OECD Emissions
2050OECD
Emissions
2050Non-OECD Emissions
2050OECD
Emissions
2050Non-OECD Emissions
OECD Emissions at “0”
20052005
To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global COTo Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO22 Emissions by 2050, Emissions by 2050,
Need Significant Reductions from Developing CountriesNeed Significant Reductions from Developing CountriesAnnual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3
CO
2, E
mis
sio
ns
(G
t C
O2/
yr)
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. NOTE: Includes CO2
emissions from energy.
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Scale of Changes in Global Power SectorScale of Changes in Global Power Sectorto Achieve “50-by-50”to Achieve “50-by-50”
35 500-MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants
20 500-MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants
32 1,000-MW Nuclear Plants
1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity
100 50-MW Biomass Plants
14,000 4-MW Turbines
130 100-MW Geothermal Units
215 million m2
80 250-MW CSP Plants
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
3,750 4-MW Turbines
Additional Annual Investment in Electricity Sector (Compared to 2005 – 2050 Baseline) to Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:
2010 to 2050
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Today 2020
Gt
CO
2/yr
Scale of COScale of CO22 Storage Storage
0
5
10
15
20
25
Today 2020 2050 2100
Gt
CO
2/yr
CO2 Storage Rate at Level 2 (≈550 ppm)
Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv) MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a). Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research.
By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yr may be required, ≈30 to 35x more than
today.By the end of the century,
approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may be required, over 400x more than today.
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Scale of Changes in Global Transport Scale of Changes in Global Transport Sector to Achieve “50-by-50”Sector to Achieve “50-by-50”
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
Change in Average Annual Vehicle Sales (Compared to Baseline) to Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:
2010 to 2050(Vehicles in Millions)
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Principles for Climate Change PolicyPrinciples for Climate Change Policy
Place the U.S. on an equal competitive footing with the rest of the world.
Set realistic and achievable goals that do not undermine economic growth;
Ensure global participation, including binding commitments from large developing countries;
Consider growing energy needs, circumstances, and resources in all countries;
Ensure that mitigation actions by all parties are measurable, reportable, and verifiable;
Recognize technology development and commerce as crucial prerequisites to achieving emission reductions;
Protect intellectual property rights and the rule of law; Remove trade barriers to environmental goods and services
International Principles
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A Path Forward Involves …A Path Forward Involves …
Progress in climate change technology to: create new, better, and less costly solutions facilitate means for change and a smooth transition
Expanding finance & open trade in clean energy goods and services
Protecting intellectual property rights Increasing opportunities for multilateral collaboration Developing a new international framework that is
realistic, economically sustainable and environmentally effective