1) climate change in illinois 2) water for ethanol plants · global warming source: hadley centre,...
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) C C G O S1) CLIMATE CHANGE IN ILLINOIS2) WATER FOR ETHANOL PLANTS)
Champaign West Rotary Clubg yOctober 17, 2007
Derek Winstanley, D.Phil.Chi fChief
Illinois State Water Survey
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments• Ken KunkelKen Kunkel• Xin-Zhong Liang• Jim Angel• Jim Angel• Steve Hilberg
L li E• Leslie Ensor• Vern Knapp• Al Wehrmann• George Roadcap
Global WarminggSource: Hadley Centre, UK
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Annual Smoothed
Global Average
56.01850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Annual Smoothed
Illinois Temperature: Annual SmoothedpSource: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey
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ILLINOIS
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481850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Illinois and Central USA Temperature Illinois and Central USA Temperature Changes Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global Trends
(°C
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aly
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Year
ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS
Vern Knapp in Winstanley et al. (2006), ISWS IEM 2006-02
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average watershed precipitation (3 gages)
streamflow at Keokuk
Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA
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20th Century A2 5th A2 95th A1B 5th A1B 95th B1 5th B1 95th
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GLOBAL CLIMATE IS A COMPOSITE OF REGIONAL CLIMATESREGIONAL CLIMATES …..
… BUT GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS DO NOT DO A GOOD JOB AT SIMULATINGNOT DO A GOOD JOB AT SIMULATING
REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES
CLIMATE CONCLUSIONS1. Illinois is cooler and wetter than it was 50-70 years
ago.2. High natural variability.3. Difficult to identify effects of global warming on
Illinois climateIllinois climate.2. Large range of uncertainty in projecting future
climatic conditions. 3 Cli t t 2050 ld b3. Climate to 2050 could be:
- the same, or- warmer, orwarmer, or- wetter, or- drierSWS DEVELOPING A NEW CRYSTAL BALL – A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
ETHANOL PLANTSETHANOL PLANTS• Over 50 ethanol plants proposed in Illinois p p p
including Danville (2), Gilman (2), Watseka, Gibson City, Royal, Champaign.A i 1 5 illi ll f d• Assuming 1.5 million gallons of water per day (mgd) per plant gives total water demand of over 75 mgd – enough for a city of 500 000 people75 mgd enough for a city of 500,000 people.
• The 8 plants in east-central Illinois would use a total of about 12 mgd, if built.
• Separate analysis of water supply needed for each plant.
The Mahomet Aquifer Region
Morton
Peoria
WatsekaWOODFORDCO
FORD0 8 12 16 204
NORTH
PekinNormal
Bloomington` PaxtonHoopeston
MCLEAN COCHAMPAIGN CO
FORD CO IROQUOIS CO
VERMILION CO
MILESGibson City
TAZEWELL CO
Havana
Lincoln Clinton Champaign Urbana
Rantoul
DanvilleMASON CO
MENARD CO
LOGAN CO
MCLEAN CO
MahometDEWITT CO
Petersburg
Decatur
Monticello
p gCASS CO
MACON CO
PIATT CO
Proposed ethanol plants using
Bedrock “high” – aquifer absent
SpringfieldProposed ethanol plants usingMahomet Aquifer as principal source
FIRST PUBLIC VIEWING OF$ O O O$10 MILLION MODEL OF
MAHOMET AQUIFERMAHOMET AQUIFER
Cone of Depression in the Mahomet Aquifer2005 DRAFT ISWS
ETHANOL PLANTS IN C/U AREAETHANOL PLANTS IN C/U AREA
• If the Andersons and Royal plants are builtIf the Andersons and Royal plants are built and take ~ 3 mgd water from the Mahomet Aquifer near Champaign there would beAquifer near Champaign there would be 6-10 feet additional drawdown of “head” in the C/U areathe C/U area.
• Wells in the shallow Glasford Aquifer also would be affectedwould be affected.
715’LandSurface
Pre-development Today 2025-2040
660’ Head
Surface
660 Head
570’ Head
530’530’ Head
530
Mahomet Aquifer0mgd ~30mgd 45mgd?
Mahomet Aquiferg g g
Decline in “head” west of Champaign
WATER AVAILABILITY AND USE• In 19th Century, about 130 feet of “head” in the C/U area.• About 30 mgd currently pumped in Champaign County has
drawn “head” down by about 90 feetdrawn head down by about 90 feet.• About 40 feet of “head” remains.• The bucket of water in the C/U area is about 70% empty, or
30% full (as measured by “head” above the top of the30% full (as measured by “head” above the top of the Mahomet Aquifer).
• 2 ethanol plants would use a total of ~3mgd which is about 15 25% of water still available in C/U area before the15-25% of water still available in C/U area before the Mahomet Aquifer is dewatered locally.
• Withdrawals of water for any purpose will lower “head”:Illi i A i l t dditi l 15 d- Illinois American plans to pump additional 15 mgd.
- Equistar pumping about 6 mgd near Bondville. • How do you want to use the 30% of waterHow do you want to use the 30% of water
still available in the bucket locally?
