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Climate changeimpacts and adaptation:

An international perspective

Chris Field

Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecologywww.global-ecology.org

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• Evolving perspectives on impacts

• Developing concepts on the role of the IPCC

• Adaptation in the response portfolio

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IPCC AR4 - 2007

• Hundreds of top scientists

• Comprehensive assessment

• Multi-stage, broad-based, monitored review

• Plenary approval line-by-line, by

governments

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Findings of the AR4• Warming is unequivocal

• Most warming over last 50 years very likely due to human influences

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Findings of the AR4: 2

• Warming will continue

• “No policy” range for 2100– Lowest scenario: 1.1-2.9˚C– Highest scenario: 2.0-5.4˚C

WG1 SPM p13

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Findings of the AR4: 3

• Damages from climate change– $3 to $95 per ton CO2

• 2030 costs of CO2 stabilization– 3% of GDP to a net benefit for GDP

WG3 SPM p11

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• “Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised.”

WG1 SPM p 16

Findings of the AR4: 4

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• Wide range of documented impacts

• Vast regional variation

• Vulnerability linked to poverty, health,

institutions, governance

Findings of the AR4

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The “standard” model

Impacts

Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

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The “standard” model

Impacts

Forcing

Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

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The “revised” model

Impacts

Feedbacks

Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

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Forcing

How do actual emissions compare with the scenarios explored in the IPCC AR4?

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Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000

Fossil intensive, industrialized

Advanced technology, industrialized

Diversified, local solutions

14Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS, updated at http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm

1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1

2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Fo

ssil

Fu

el E

mis

sio

n (

GtC

/y) Emissions

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C[Total Anthrop.Emis.:8.5+1.5 = 10.0 Pg]

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Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS

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Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS (with 2006 and 2007 from CDIAC)

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Finding the mechanism

Carbo

n int

ensit

y

Of eco

nom

ic ac

tivity

Per ca

pita

GDP

Popula

tion

size

18Anthropogenic C Emissions: Carbon Intensity of GDP

Raupach et al. Biogeosciences 2008

Fac

tor

(rel

ativ

e to

198

0)

World, including 2006

EmissionsPopulationWealth = per capita GDPCarbon intensity of DGP

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Forcing

• Recent emissions were at or above the trajectory of the full range explored in the AR4

• High recent emissions mostly due to rapid economic growth

• Climate on a trajectory that has not been explored

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Feedbacks

Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

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Feedbacks

Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

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Feedbacks

Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

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Feedbacks: Permafrost

• 10.5 x 106 km2, 24% of N Hemisphere land surface

• “Modeled” dramatic loss by 2100– 4 x 106 km2 remain under B1– 1 x 106 km2 remain under A2

• Permafrost carbon– 500 Pg yedoma– 1100 Pg non-yedoma, non-peat– 60 Pg peat bogs

Lawrence & Slater GRL 2005, Zimov et al. Science 2005, Tarnocai et al. JGR 2009

24Feedbacks: Permafrost

• Yedoma sediments– Pleistocene roots– Highly

decomposable– Deep exposure

from thermokarst erosion

– Up to 30% released as CH4

Zimov et al. Science 2006, Walter et al. Science 2006, Schuur et al. BioScience 2008

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Feedbacks

• Dynamic coupling between climate and permafrost carbon cycle not included in AR4 results

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In sum

• Rapid emissions growth since 2000– May add 50 PgC or more to required

reductions

• Thawing permafrost releases CO2 and CH4

– May add 100-750 PgCe to required reductions

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Needs for adaptation

• Climate change continues, even if CO2 emissions stabilize

• Lack of progress in limiting emissions• Continued skepticism about the costs

of large reductions

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lists

WG2 in the AR5:Beyond lists

29Table TS.3. (lower) Examples of global impacts projected for changes in climate (and sea level and atmospheric CO2 where relevant)

IPCC AR4 WG2 TS

30AR5: Opportunities

• Multi-stressor environment• Risk management

– Supporting good decisions

• Adaptation– Beyond generalities

• Costing– Common framework for impacts,

adaptation, and mitigation

• Take advantage of full range of available knowledge

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Adaptation in the arc of the IPCC

100% climate-change

100% multi-stress

impact

Early warningProtective structuresActivity shiftingEffective responses

Early warningProtective structures

Activity shiftingEffective responsesWin-win strategies

Multi-stress solutions

AR4

AR5

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Mitigation

Adaptation

Adap

tatio

n

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Core issues for the AR5

• Boundary between adaptation and coping

• Managing short-term responses to avoid long-term maladaption

• Balancing development and sustainability

• Contributing to Millennium Development Goals

• International dimensions

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International dimensions

• CAM: an adaptation analog to the CDM?

• Perspectives on moving and activity switching?

• Interactions with security and conflict?