1 chapter 10 equity valuation tools portfolio construction, management, & protection, 5e, robert...
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Chapter 10
Equity Valuation Tools
Portfolio Construction, Management, & Protection, 5e, Robert A. StrongCopyright ©2009 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Business & Economics. All rights reserved.
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“Things are different now.”
(The four most dangerous words in finance.)
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Introduction More than 10,000 different listed stocks By simply buying a diversified portfolio
you could earn an average rate of return Who wants to be average? This chapter provides insight to:
• The source of stock value• Why value changes
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Stock as a Present Value Investors price stock on the basis of
anticipated inflows Since dividends are the only cash reward
for investing, a popular valuation model is the dividend discount model
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Relationship of World Exchanges (cont’d)
International capital markets continue to show independent price behavior• International diversification offers potential
advantages
• Repeating the Evans and Archer methodology for international securities should result in a lower level of systematic risk
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Valuation of Apple ComputerExample
Microsoft pays a $0.50 dividend. This is expected to grow at a rate of 7%. The required rate of return is 10%.
Based on the dividend discount model, what is the value of Microsoft’s common stock?
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Valuation of Apple Computer (con’d)
Example
Stock price =
Next dividend / Required return in Excess of anticipated dividend growth rate
Stock price = $0.50 (1.07) / [0.10 – 0.07]
= $0.535 / 0.03
= $18
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Valuation of Apple Computer (con’d)
Example
Small errors in estimation result in huge changes in estimated stock price value!
Increase dividend growth rate by ten percent (to 7.7%)
Stock price = $0.50 (1.077) / [0.10 – 0.077]
= $0.5385 / 0.023
= $23.41
That is a 30% increase!
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Accounting Versus Finance Perspectives
Account looks at past and present to determine:
• Where firm is (balance sheet)• How it got there (income statement)
Finance looks at the future
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Present Value of Growth Opportunities
Present value equals• Valuation of current earnings
– Assuming earnings and required return stay constant
• Present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) This technique essentially identifies PVGO PVGO is estimated and less certain Hence, investors tend to prefer stocks with lower
PVGO values
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Present Value of Growth Opportunities
Example
Abell Machines is priced at $34, had earning of $1.45 over the past year, and a required return of 9.5 percent.
Bell Retailers is priced at $45, had earnings of $2.20 over the past year, and a required return of 12.3 percent.
Which company has the lower PVGO value?
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Present Value of Growth Opportunities (con’d)
PV = E/K + PVGO
Hence, PV – E/K = PVGO
PVGO of Abell Machines:
$34 - $1.45 / 0.095 = $34 - $15.26 = $18.74
PVGO of Bell Retail:
$45 - $2.2/0.123 = $45 – 17.89 = $27.11
Since PVGO is uncertain, most investors would prefer Abell Machines, despite its lower level of earnings
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EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Taxes,
Depreciation and Amortization Tool: Stock price / EBITDA Seek firms with lower stock price/EBITDA
ratios Not as popular as others because firms may
claim expenses as investments in assets, reducing EBITDA
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Cash Flows Changes in cash arising from business operations Tool: Stock Price/Operating cash flow Generally seek firms with lower ratios Modification: Use Free Cash Flow
• Operating cash flow less required investment in plant and equipment
• Excess is money available to investors
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PEG Ratios Price/earnings ratio dividend by dividend
growth rate Investors seek PEG ratios less than 1.0 Problems:
• Identifying earnings (Past? Forecast?)• Identifying growth rate (1-year forecast?, 5-
year forecast?)
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The Required Return Real Portion:
• Return for saving instead of spending money• Relatively stable in the 3-4 percent range
Inflation Adjustment:• Reflects changes in general price level• Relatively stable in the 3 percent range
Risk Premium:Depends on– Firm conditions– Overall economic conditions
Note: Small changes in any of these can result in large changes in firm valuation
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Changes in Stock Price Primary Long-Term Driver of Change
• Earnings – or lack thereof Primary Short-term Driver of Price Change
• Changes in investor sentiment• Relatively stable in the 3 percent range
Note: Both are difficult to predict
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Equity Risk Premium Extra return on equity
• 8.4% higher than Treasury bills• 6.7% higher than Treasury bonds• In any year stocks could be lower
– After all, this is an equity “risk” premium
Note: Beta is multiplied by the equity risk premium in the capital asset pricing model
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Anticipated Equity Risk Premium Changes
Forecasts suggest a diminishing equity risk premium• One reason is the anticipated higher costs for raw
materials Note: The market sets these, not individual
investors• Though investors could sell shares not providing
sufficient returns• The sale increases supply, reducing price, and
increasing returns to the buyer!
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Greenspan Model General indicator of whether the stock market is
over- or undervalued Mentioned in 1997 Federal Reserve Board
publication Alan Greenspan was Chairman of the Federal
Reserve Board at that time Model: YieldU.S. Treasury note less P/ES&P 500
Positive Result: Stock market overvalued Negative Result: Stock market undervalued
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Changing PE Multiples The amount individuals are willing to pay for a dollar of
earnings varies Long-run average is 16 Varies over time Returns will come from higher earnings and higher
price/earnings ratios A companies earnings cannot be manipulated by investors However, investors can buy firms with lower P/E ratios
• Yet, such firms are not expected to have as high a rate of earnings growth
• Hence, the lower price/earning ratio