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Briefing on the Round 8.0 Cooperative Forecasts

Robert E. Griffiths Technical Services Director

Department of Transportation Planning

TPB Technical Committee

October 1, 2010

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The Round 8.0 Cooperative Forecasts . . .

. . . include a new econometric benchmark forecasts based on revised assumptions of the U.S. economy.

. . . are being used in this year’s Air Quality Conformity Analysis

. . . will be used in conjunction with the new Household Travel Survey and the new Transportation Model

. . . include a new Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) structure (TPB TAZ 3,722) almost doubling the number of TAZs from the previous series.

. . . will be an initial basis for the update to the COG Regional Activity Centers and Clusters.

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Cooperative Forecasting Process

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Key Economic Factors Influencing the Round 8.0 Growth Forecasts

• The National Recession• Higher Rates of Unemployment • Foreclosures and Reduction in Home

Values • Tight Capital Markets • Slower Pace of Housing Sales and Leasing

of Office Space• BRAC and Stabilizing Presence of the

Federal Government

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Impact of Key Economic Factors on Round 8.0 Growth Forecasts

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20402.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Round 8.0

Round 7.2A

Total Jobs

TotalHouseholds

Slightly Slower Rates of Job and House-hold Growth Com-pared to the Earlier Round 7.2A Fore-casts

(Millions)

The Regional Jobs/Housing improves slightly because the

rate of employment growth slows more than the rate of

household growth

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STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

SERVICE PROVIDING

MANUFACTURING

CONSTRUCTION

-100 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700

Forecast 2005 to 2040 Job Growth by Major Sector in Metropolitan Washington (Thou-

sands of Jobs)

Almost 90% of the region’s long-term Job Growth will be in the Service Providing Sec-tor of the Economy

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Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Educational & Health Svcs

Professional & Business Svcs

Financial Activities

Information

Transp., Trade, & Utilities

-100 100 300 500 700 900 1,100

Forecast 2005 to 2040 Job Growth in Service Providing Sector Industries

(Thousands of Jobs)Job Growth in Professional &

Business Services Industries will account

for about 2/3 the increase in the Service

Providing Sector

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Growth Forecasts for All Jurisdictions in the TPB Modeled Area are included in Round 8.0.

• COG Members• BMC Counties in TPB Modeled

Area– Anne Arundel, Carroll & Howard

• Tri-County Council– Calvert, Charles & St. Mary’s

• FAMPO– Fredericksburg, King George,

Spotsylvania & Stafford

• Others– Clarke, Fauquier & Jefferson

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Round 8.0 Growth Forecasts

TPBModeled

Area2005 2040

Change2005- 2040 Percent

Change

Jobs

(in Millions)3.8 5.6 +1.8 +47%

Households(in Millions)

2.3 3.3 +1.0 +43%

Population(in Millions)

6.3 8.6 +2.3 +38%

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Forecasts for Jurisdictions in TPB Modeled Area Have Been Grouped Geographically for Analysis Purposes in this Briefing.

Central Jurisdiction

s

Inner Suburbs

Outer Suburbs

Outer Ring - MD

Outer Ring – VA/WV

• District of Columbia

• Arlington• Alexandria

•Montgomery •Prince George’s•Fairfax (County)•Fairfax (city)•Falls Church

• Loudoun• Prince William

• Manassas• Manassas Park

• Calvert• Charles• Frederick County MD)

• Stafford

•Anne Arundel•Carroll•Howard•St. Mary’s

•Fredericksburg•King George•Spotsylvania (portion)•Clarke •Fauquier•Jefferson (WV)

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Forecast Employment Growth (2005-2040)

Central Jurs

Inner Suburbs

Outer Suburbs

Outer Ring - MD

Outer Ring - VA/WV

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Employment in 20052005-2040 Growth

+368,000Jobs

(35%)

+ 628,000Jobs

(42%)

+ 434,000Jobs

(+84%)

+ 246,000Jobs

(+39%)

+ 104,000Jobs

(+104%)

(Employment in Thousands)

+368,000Jobs

(35%)

+ 628,000Jobs

(42%)

+ 434,000Jobs

(+84%)

+ 246,000Jobs

(+39%)

+ 104,000Jobs

(+104%)

(Employment in Thousands)

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Forecast Household Growth (2005-2040)

Central Jurs

Inner Suburbs

Outer Suburbs

Outer Ring - MD

Outer Ring - VA/WV

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Households in 20052005-2040 Growth

+142,000Households

(34%)

+ 287,000Households

(28%)

+ 335,000Households

(+81%) + 130,000Households

(+34%)

+ 120,000Households

(+129%)

(Households in Thousands)

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Forecast Population Growth (2005-2040)

Central Jurs

Inner Suburbs

Outer Suburbs

Outer Ring - MD

Outer Ring - VA/WV

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Population in 20052005-2040 Growth

+284,000People(31%)

+ 642,000People(23%)

+ 873,000People(+73%)

+ 253,000People(+24%)

+ 297,000People

(+114%)

(Populationin Thousands)

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Regional Activity Centers and Clusters

• In 2007, the MDPC and COG Board approved Round 7.0 Regional Activity Centers and Cluster maps and data

• These maps and data identified 61 Regional Activity Centers and 28 Activity Clusters

• The identified Round 7.0 Activity Centers and Clusters together with new Round 8.0 Forecasts will be an initial starting point for the update of the COG Regional Activity Centers and Clusters by the Region’s Planning Directors, the MDPC and the COG Board

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Preliminary Analysis of Round 8.0 Forecasts for Round 7.0 Regional Activity Centers

• Preliminary Analysis of Forecast Round 8.0 Growth in Round 7.0 Regional Activity Centers show:

– 2005 to 2040 Employment in these activity centers increasing by 48%, about the same as for the region as a whole

– 2005 to 2040 Households in these activity centers increasing by 107%, more than twice that of the region as a whole

– By 2040, 55% of the region’s total jobs and 19% of the region’s total households are now forecast to be concentrated in the Round 7.0 Regional Activity Centers that constitute less than 5% of the region’s total land area.

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Round 8.0 Cooperative Forecasts Key Findings

• Slightly slower rates of job and household growth are now forecast in comparison to the earlier Round 7.2A forecasts

• Also, in comparison to Round 7.2A, a slightly improved regional Jobs/Housing Balance is seen. This will reduce the number of long-distance in-commuters from external areas

• The greatest absolute increase in jobs is forecast for the Inner Suburbs and the greatest absolute increase in households is forecast for the Outer Suburbs

• Preliminary analysis of forecast Round 8.0 Growth in Round 7.0 Regional Activity Centers suggests that significantly more higher density housing is now being planned for these centers making them more mixed-use.

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Questions . . .