1 bre confidence index for residential property (september 2006 survey) presenter: prof. eddie c. m....
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1
BRE Confidence Index forResidential Property
(September 2006 Survey)
Presenter: Prof. Eddie C. M. Hui
Research Centre for Construction and Real Estate EconomicsThe Hong Kong Polytechnic University
4 October 2006
© The Hong Kong Polytechnic University 2006. All Rights Reserved.
2
Project Teams
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Hong Kong Baptist University
Texas A&M University, USA
University of Cambridge, UK
Collaborators
3
Uniqueness of BRE Index Project It uses:
Forward looking (predictive) approach – not based on historic data or price trends
It focuses on:
Developmental changes in housing price expectations and confidence over time
Trends of housing demand, decisions and preferences
It establishes:
Time-series indices for different groups of housing participants
It targets at:
Residential property markets only
We are:Independent, professional and experienced researchers in real estate economics
4
Research Methodology
• Method: Longitudinal telephone survey• Questionnaire design: Simple and straight-forward, and worded in
everyday Chinese• Rating scale: 5-Point Likert Scale• Sample: 28,000 randomized telephone numbers per survey• Successful interviews: Aim at 1,000 per survey• Pilot: Trial study before full-scale surveys• Survey duration: 6 four-hour sessions in the evening• Interviewers: 20 independent and trained university students under close
supervision• Index computation: Based on non-equal weighted confidence scores of
price expectations and sentimental questions• Software used: Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) and
Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS)
5
Groups of Respondents
A. Homeowner A1. Owner in market, considering
purchase A2. Owner and conditional purchaser A3. Owner and non-buyer
B. Non-homeowner B1. Non-owner in market, considering purchaser B2. Non-owner and conditional
purchaser B3. Non-owner and non-buyer
6
Components of BRE Index
1. Rating for investment2. Timing to buy3. Current housing prices4. Expected housing price changes5. Expected economic conditions6. Expected job opportunities7. Expected family income8. Affordability of home purchase
7
Composition of Respondents(Sept 2006 Survey)
A111%
A214%
A326%B1
13%
B324%
B212%
A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 B3
8
Surveys ConductedDates Valid
SamplesCompleted Interviews
Response Rates (%)
Dec 2003 3,515 810 23.04
March 2004 4,214 960 22.78
June 2004 5,592 1,176 21.03
Sept 2004 4,359 893 20.48
Dec 2004 4,932 1,156 23.43
March 2005 4,942 1,078 21.81
June 2005 7,476 1,120 14.98
Sept 2005 5,893 1,029 17.46
Dec 2005 6,153 1,007 16.37
Mar 2006 6,537 1,056 16.15
June 2006 7,165 1,034 14.43
Sept 2006 7,125 1,008 14.15
9
BRE Index (0-1000)
564587
690 686 688702 714 708717 719 718714
579 556620 603
720717707 701
704
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Homeowner Non-homeowner Overall
BR
E In
dex
First Survey (Dec 2003) Second Survey (Mar 2004) Third Survey (J un 2004)Fourth Survey (Sept 2004) Fifth Survey (Dec 2004) Sixth Survey (Mar 2005)Seventh Survey (J un 2005) Eighth Survey (Sept 2005) Ninth Survey (Dec 2005)Tenth Survey (Mar 2006) Eleventh Survey (J une 2006) Twelfth Survey (J une 2006)
10
Expected Percentage Increase in Housing Prices(Mean Value)
3.8
1.3
4.3
3.03.3
4.4
6.9 7.1 7.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Homeowner Non-homeowner Overall
Per
cent
3 Months 1 Year 3 Years
11
Property Investment Rating
50
62.8
15.1
54.3
23
1.23.6
17.6
0.8
22.4
3.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad Don't know
Homeowner Non-homeowner
12
Expected Changes in Housing Prices in 3 Months
15.819.218.3
5.68.3
3.20.4 0.4
0.4
47.6
0.00.8
22.8
5.2
1.6 0.03.2
0.0
35.6
11.6
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0
Above+20%
11% to20%
6% to10%
1% to5%
Same -1% to -5%
-6% to -10%
-11%to -20%
Above -20%
Don'tKnow
% o
f R
esponden
ts
Homeowner Non-homeowner
13
Current Level of Housing Prices
77
2
18.6
2.81.6
81.6
14.4
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
High & ExtremelyHigh
About Right Low & ExtremelyLow
Don't Know
% o
f Res
pode
nts
Homeowner Non-homeowner
14
Existing and Preferred Flat Size(Homeowner)
04
1.2
50.8
26.6
47.1
11.5
27.8
18.6
2
46.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Type A (Up to429)
Type B (430-752)
Type C (753-1075)
Type D (1076-1720)
Type E (Over1720)
Not decided
% o
f R
esponden
t
Existing Flat Size Preferred Flat Size
15
Existing and Preferred Flat Size(Non-homeowner)
02 0.4
49.2
17.2
2
29.6
2
49.2
2
29.6
17.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Type A (Up to429)
Type B (430-752)
Type C (753-1075)
Type D (1076-1720)
Type E (Over1720)
Not decided
% o
f R
esponden
t
Existing Flat Size Preferred Flat Size
16
Factors Affecting Housing Decision(Homeowner)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Income Location InterestRate
Economic Developer Rental Land Sale Queue
Lev
el o
f Im
portan
ce
Important & Very Important NeutralNot Important & Not at all Important Don't Know
17
Factors Affecting Housing Decision(Non-homeowner)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Income Location InterestRate
Economic Rental Developer Land Sale Queue
Lev
el o
f Im
portan
ce
Important & Very Important NeutralNot Important & Not at all Important Don't Know
18
Ranking of Factors
HO NHO
June Sept June SeptIncome 1 1 1 1
Location 2 2 3 2
Interest rate 3 3 2 3
Economic condition
4 4 4 4
Developer 5 5 6 6
Rental 6 6 5 5
Land sale 7 7 7 7
Queue 8 8 8 8
19
Impact of Interest Rate Hike(% of Respondents)
HO NHO
Very significant 4.3 (12.4) 10.4 (13.7)
Significant 27.4 (33.2) 30.0 (26.6)
Neutral 25.8 (20.8) 26.0 (30.9)
Insignificant 27.4 (26.3) 23.6 (19.7)
Very insignificant 11.1 (5.2) 4.8 (2.6)
Don’t know 4.0 (2.1) 5.2 (6.5)
Total 100 (100) 100 (100)
Figures in ( ) are results of June 2006 Survey
20
Timing to Buy a Real Property
7.5
78.4
0.82.8
17.5
71.4
15.6
1.20.8
4
0102030405060708090
3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years Don't know
% o
f Re
spo
nd
en
ts
Homeowner Non-homeowner
21
Forecast of Economic Conditions (% of Respondents)
3 Months 1 Year 3 Years
HO NHO HO NHO HO NHOBetter & Much Better
36.9
(34.6)
33.2
(41.6)
50.8 50.0 44.1 50.4
Same 53.2
(50.9)
57.2
(46.8)
27.8 32.0 8.3 14.8
Worse & Much Worse
6.7
(12.8)
8.0
(8.2)
9.9 11.2 12.3 14.4
Don’t Know 3.2 (1.7)
1.6 (3.4)
11.5 6.8 35.3 20.4
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Figures in ( ) are results of June 2006 Survey
22
Forecast of Family Income (% of Respondents)
3 Months 1 Year 3 Years
HO NHO HO NHO HO NHOGreatly & Somewhat Increase
19.8 (18.3)
20.4 (26.6)
44.4 45.6 48.0 59.6
Same 73.4 (74.8)
73.2 (64.4)
42.5 41.6 20.6 20.8
Greatly & Somewhat Decrease
4.4
(4.5)
4.8
(5.6)
5.6 6.4 6.4 5.6
Don’t Know 2.4
(2.4)
1.6
(3.4)
7.5 6.4 25.0 14.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Figures in ( ) are results of June 2006 Survey
23
Forecast of Job Opportunities (% of Respondents)
3 Months 1 Year 3 Years
HO NHO HO NHO HO NHOBetter & Much Better
18.2 (21.1)
21.6 (27.0)
23.8 37.2 30.9 41.6
Same 64.7
(62.3)
62.8 (57.5)
51.6 45.2 30.9 28.0
Worse & Much Worse
6.8
(6.2)
8.4
(7.3)
8.3 7.2 8.8 9.2
Don’t Know 10.3
(10.4)
7.2
(8.2)
16.3 10.4 29.4 21.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Figures in ( ) are results of June 2006 Survey
24
Forecast of Ability to Buy a Property(% of Respondents)
3 Months 1 Year 3 Year
HO NHO HO NHO HO NHOBetter & Much Better
16.6 (14.6)
10.0 (18.5)
29.8 24.4 43.6 46.0
Same 72.6 (70.9)
76.8 (67.4)
54.8 62.0 25.8 36.4
Worse & Much Worse
6.8
(8.6)
10.4
(10.7)
6.3 9.2 6.4 8.4
Don’t Know 4.0
(5.9)
2.8
(3.4)
9.1 4.4 24.2 9.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Figures in ( ) are results of June 2006 Survey
25
Conclusions• Housing prices were expected to rise marginally in the short run following
the end of the interest rate up-cycle in August.• Housing in Hong Kong continued to be perceived as expensive. About 77%
of HOs and 83% of NHOs felt “somewhat too high” or “extremely high”.• Slightly half (HO:50%, NHO:58%) considered it was a “somewhat bad” or
“very bad” time to buy a real property.• About three-quarters (HO:71%, NHO:78%) had no idea when to buy. Only 4%
of HOs and 2% of NHOs planned to buy within six months.• The scale of impact of interest rate rises tended to be diminishing, 32% of
HOs (last survey:46%) and 40% of NHOs (last survey:40%) said the impact was “significant” or “very significant”. Yet the end of interest rate hikes does not seem to have much positive impact on the local market.
• Family income remained the most important factor affecting housing decision, as in previous surveys.
• Family income was expected to “greatly increase” or “increase somewhat” by 20% of respondents (last survey:22%).
• The market, in general, would remain largely positive in the fourth quarter of the year.
26
Next Two Surveys
• Dec 2006
• Mar 2007
RCCREE Website: http://www.bre.polyu.edu.hk/rccree/index.htm
BRE Index Project Website:
http://www.bre.polyu.edu.hk/research/bre_index/index.htm
27
Q & A
Thank You
28
Investment Ratings (in percent)
Survey VeryGood Good Neutral Bad Very Bad DK
1 (Dec 03) 3.6 25.2 32.2 27.6 4.7 6.7
2 (Mar 04) 1.4 28 29.4 31.8 2.3 7.1
3 (Jun 04) 1.8 24 32.9 31.6 2.3 7.4
4 (Sep 04) 1.6 26.6 28.9 28.6 3.6 10.7
5 (Dec 04) 3.4 24.8 31.4 28 1.9 10.5
6 (Mar 05) 2.6 34.0 31.8 24.8 0.5 6.3
7 (Jun 05) 1.7 29.7 34.6 22.8 2.4 8.8
8 (Sep 05) 2.4 33.3 26.9 27.6 1.5 8.3
9 (Dec 05) 2.5 25.1 41.3 23.6 2.9 4.6
10 (Mar 06) 1.6 26.8 37.7 27.2 2.2 4.5
11 (Jun 06) 1.5 22.6 44.1 24.5 3.3 4.0
12 (Sept 06) 1.8 16.3 52.2 22.7 2.2 4.8
29
Good / Bad time to Buy a Property (in percent)
SurveyVeryGood Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad
Very Bad DK
1 (Dec 03) 6.7 43.1 31.4 3.8 15
2 (Mar 04) 1.8 41.8 36.6 3.2 16.6
3 (Jun 04) 2.7 38.2 44.8 2.9 11.4
4 (Sep 04) 2.1 39.6 39.8 2.9 15.6
5 (Dec 04) 3.4 34.3 45.5 2.5 14.3
6 (Mar 05) 2.7 42.2 40.3 2.9 11.9
7 (Jun 05) 2.2 36.0 47.8 1.7 12.3
8 (Sep 05) 1.3 29.7 49.8 4.0 15.2
9 (Dec 05) 1.5 28.4 54.5 6.0 9.6
10 (Mar 06) 1.1 22.9 55.3 4.1 16.6
11 (Jun 06) 0.8 28.0 56.3 9.7 5.2
30
Current Housing Prices (in percent)
SurveyExtremely
HighSomewhat too
HighAbout Right
Somewhat too Low Extremely Low DK
1 (Dec 03) 9.1 32.6 37.8 9 2.1 9.4
2 (Mar 04) 15.4 35.7 33.8 5.7 0.2 9.2
3 (Jun 04) 17.5 33.2 36.6 4.3 0.4 8
4 (Sep 04) 16.9 40.4 32.1 3.9 1 5.7
5 (Dec 04) 19.2 37.9 27.8 1.7 0.8 12.6
6 (Mar 05) 19.7 41.5 26.9 5.1 0.5 6.3
7 (Jun 05) 23.0 40.7 28.8 1.7 0.2 5.6
8 (Sep 05) 25.7 42.1 22.2 1.1 0.4 8.5
9 (Dec 05) 26.9 46.3 16.3 2.5 0.6 7.3
10 (Mar 06) 34.1 43.9 17.3 1.3 0.2 3.2
11 (Jun 06) 36.4 45.0 15.2 1.1 0.6 1.7
31
Expected Housing Prices in Next 3 Months (in percent)
Survey Rise Fall Same DK
1 (Dec03) 42.9 6.8 27.2 23.1
2 (Mar04) 64.3 4.5 16.4 14.8
3 (Jun04) 36.7 8.8 43.1 11.4
4 (Sep04) 49 1.8 32.8 16.4
5 (Dec04) 52.6 3.4 26.1 17.9
6 (Mar 05) 56.8 2.2 21.8 19.2
7 (Jun 05) 32.9 7.8 10.5 48.8
8 (Sep 05) 47.9 9.2 26.4 16.5
9 (Dec 05) 30.5 30.3 22.5 16.7
10 (Mar 06) 32.1 18.2 36.2 13.5
11 (Jun 06) 29.1 27.2 30.1 13.6
12 (Sep 06) 32.7 13.1 41.6 12.5
32
Expected Housing Prices in Next 3 Months (in percent)
1 (Dec 03)
2 (Mar 04)
3 (Jun 04)
4 (Sep 04)
5 (Dec 04)
6 (Mar 05)
7 (Jun 05)
8 (Sep 05)
9 (Dec 05)
10 (Mar 06)
11 (Jun 06)
12 (Sep 06)
Above +20% 0 1.9 1.1 1.5 3.2 0 1.7 1.1 1.4 0.4 1.0
0.8
+11% to
+20% 7.5 6.2 4.7 2.5 4.4 2.94.2 4.1 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.2
+6% to +10% 19.8 24.1 18.7 22.4 17.7 24.3 16.0 14.6 9.3 12.2 9.9 18.7
+0.1% to +5% 57.6 50.8 44.3 63.5 49.4 60.1 34.9 42.7 29.2 41.1 29.9 44.8
-0.1% to -5% 10.3 2.7 7.8 1.5 2.5 2.0 12.2 9.4 29.2 26.8 29.3 14.8
-6% to -10% 3.4 1.9 4.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 9.2 3.0 11.7 4.7 12.9 7.0
-11% to -20% 0 0 3.1 0 0 0
2.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.7 0.4
Above -20% 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.4
Don't Know 1.4 12.4 15.1 8.1 22.2 9.5 18.9 24.4 16.9 11.8 11.9 10.9
33
Expected Changes in Housing Prices in Next 3 Months (in percent)
SurveyNo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Survey Date
Dec 03
Mar 04
Jun 04
Sep 04
Dec 04
Mar 05
Jun 05
Sep 05
Dec 05
Mar 06
Jun 06
Sep 06
Mean Value 3.75 6.73 3.63 6.23 7.07 5.62 3.23 4.50 0.24 1.44 -0.5 2.95
34
Price Indices (1999=100) – Private Domestic
Survey A B C D E Overall
1 (Dec 03) 63.2 64.4 70.0 79.1 85.6 65.4
2 (Mar 04) 72.9 77.1 89.0 96.0 102.9 98.1
3 (Jun 04) 69.7 73.9 83.2 92.1 106.3 74.7
4 (Sep 04) 74.7 80.5 91.2 100.3 113.8 80.9
5 (Dec 04) 76.4 82.6 94.1 107.9 120.8 83.3
6 (Mar 05) 87.6 94.0 108.7 118.7 125.9 94.6
7 (Jun 05) 85.9 91.8 108.4 121.4 131.2 92.9
8 (Sep 05) 86.7 93.3 109.9 121.6 138.2 94.0
9 (Dec 05) 82.3 87.0 120.1 118.3 133.2 88.1
10 (Mar 06) 86.6 91.8 108.3 119.0 137.3 92.6
11 (Jun 06)* 85.2 89.6 106.9 119.7 140.6 91.0
* Provisional figures. Sources: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR.
35
Preferred Flat Type
12 10.48.7
1.6
27.0
10.3
2.8
49.6
9.2
0.8
48.4
19.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Primaryprivate
housing
Secondaryprivate
housing
Villagehousing
HOS / PSPS Other No comment
% o
f R
espo
nden
ts
Homeowner Non-homeowner
36
Preferred Location
N.T.22%
Not decided14%
Other7%
Kowloon19%
China1%
HK & Islands37%