1 asheville air quality megan stone. 2 clean smokestacks act passed in 2002 by the general assembly...
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Asheville Air QualityAsheville Air Quality
Megan StoneMegan Stone
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Clean Smokestacks ActClean Smokestacks Act
Passed in 2002 by the General Assembly of Passed in 2002 by the General Assembly of North CarolinaNorth Carolina
““An act to improve air quality in the state by An act to improve air quality in the state by imposing limits on the emission of certain imposing limits on the emission of certain pollutants from certain facilities that burn coal pollutants from certain facilities that burn coal to generate electricity…”to generate electricity…”
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Clean Smokestacks ActClean Smokestacks Act
Requires Progress Energy and Duke Energy to Requires Progress Energy and Duke Energy to submit annual reports containing air quality submit annual reports containing air quality information.information.
Progress Energy has spent $190 million dollars Progress Energy has spent $190 million dollars at the Asheville plant for technologies to at the Asheville plant for technologies to reduce emissions.reduce emissions.
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Clean Smokestacks ActClean Smokestacks Act Western North Carolina Western North Carolina
has a huge ozone has a huge ozone problem.problem.
Cutting NOx emissions Cutting NOx emissions would reduce the amount would reduce the amount of ozone in the area. of ozone in the area.
Scrubbers have been Scrubbers have been installed in the Asheville installed in the Asheville Power PlantPower Plant
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Formation of OzoneFormation of Ozone
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ScrubbersScrubbers
NOx + NOx + NHNH44 H H22O(g) + NO(g) + N22
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7 Day Running Average (1HR)
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.0904/
1/20
04
4/29
/200
4
5/27
/200
4
6/24
/200
4
7/22
/200
4
8/19
/200
4
9/16
/200
4
10/1
4/20
04
4/11
/200
5
5/9/
2005
6/6/
2005
7/4/
2005
8/1/
2005
8/29
/200
5
9/26
/200
5
10/2
4/20
05
4/21
/200
6
5/19
/200
6
6/16
/200
6
7/14
/200
6
8/11
/200
6
9/8/
2006
10/6
/200
6
4/3/
2007
5/1/
2007
5/29
/200
7
6/26
/200
7
7/24
/200
7
8/21
/200
7
9/18
/200
7
10/1
6/20
07
2004-2006
Ozo
ne(
PP
M)
Summer 2004 Summer 2005 Summer 2006
SCR #1 installedJune 14, 2006
Summer 2007
SCR #2 installedMay 7, 2007
88
Ozone Summer 1HR Average 1998-2005
y = -9E-06x + 0.0636
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.14001
-Apr
-98
28-M
ay-9
8
24-J
ul-9
8
19-S
ep-9
8
9/M
ay/9
9
5/Ju
l/99
31/A
ug/9
9
27/O
ct/9
9
5/23
/200
0
7/19
/200
0
9/14
/200
0
4/10
/200
1
6/6/
2001
8/2/
2001
9/28
/200
1
4/24
/200
2
6/20
/200
2
8/16
/200
2
10/1
2/20
02
5/8/
2003
7/4/
2003
8/30
/200
3
10/2
6/20
03
5/22
/200
4
7/18
/200
4
9/13
/200
4
4/9/
2005
6/5/
2005
8/1/
2005
9/27
/200
5
Date
Ozo
ne
(pp
m)
99
Ozone Summer 1HR Average 1998-2006
y = -5E-06x + 0.0609
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.14001
-Apr
-98
11-J
un-9
8
21-A
ug-9
8
31-O
ct-9
8
4/Ju
l/99
13/S
ep/9
9
4/23
/200
0
7/3/
2000
9/12
/200
0
4/22
/200
1
7/2/
2001
9/11
/200
1
4/21
/200
2
7/1/
2002
9/10
/200
2
4/20
/200
3
6/30
/200
3
9/9/
2003
4/19
/200
4
6/29
/200
4
9/8/
2004
4/18
/200
5
6/28
/200
5
9/7/
2005
4/17
/200
6
6/27
/200
6
9/6/
2006
4/16
/200
7
6/26
/200
7
9/5/
2007
Date
Ozo
ne(
PP
M)
1010
Correlation CoefficientCorrelation Coefficient
Measures the linear relationship between two Measures the linear relationship between two variables.variables.
The correlation coefficient (rThe correlation coefficient (r22) is always ) is always between -1 and +1. The closer the correlation between -1 and +1. The closer the correlation is to +/-1, the closer to a perfect linear is to +/-1, the closer to a perfect linear relationship. relationship.
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Correlation CoefficientCorrelation Coefficient
Ozone vs. SunlightOzone vs. Sunlight
Ozone vs. VOCsOzone vs. VOCs
Ozone vs. NOxOzone vs. NOx
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Sunlight vs. OzoneSunlight vs. Ozone
HypothesisHypothesis: More sunlight yields more ozone. : More sunlight yields more ozone.
Therefore, RTherefore, R22 > 0 for a correlation between > 0 for a correlation between ozone and sunlight amount. ozone and sunlight amount.
Retrieved daily “clear” observations for Retrieved daily “clear” observations for 2006/2007 summers from NCDC 2006/2007 summers from NCDC calculated calculated daily percentages (10am, 1pm, and 4pm)daily percentages (10am, 1pm, and 4pm)
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2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
April May June July August September October
Month
Per
cen
tag
e
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
Month
PP
M Clear Percentage
Ozone PPM
1414
20062006
April 63.33333 0.058967
May 40.86022 0.058967
June 50 0.058333
July 50.53763 0.058581
August 38.70968 0.055032
September 36.66667 0.043087
October 61.29032 0.041065
0.012316 Monthly
Sunlight % Ozone (ppm)
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2007 Ozone vs. Clear Afternoons
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
April May June July August Sept Oct
Month
Per
cen
tag
e
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
PP
M Clear Afternoons
Ozone
1616
20072007
April 54.44444 0.0563
May 53.83871 0.062871
June 54.44444 0.062167
July 38.70968 0.052065
August 69.89247 0.065032
Sept 50 0.058033
Oct 51.6129 0.042931
Monthly 0.55681
Sunlight % Ozone (ppm)
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Sunlight vs. OzoneSunlight vs. Ozone
2006: R2006: R22 = 0.012316 = 0.012316 Practically no Practically no correlationcorrelation
2007: R2007: R22 = 0.55681 = 0.55681 Much stronger positive Much stronger positive correlationcorrelation
ConclusionConclusion: Both are positive correlations.: Both are positive correlations.
(But what happened in 2006?) (But what happened in 2006?)
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Ozone vs. VOCsOzone vs. VOCs
The state of NC releases estimates of how The state of NC releases estimates of how much VOCs are released by humans per much VOCs are released by humans per month every three years.month every three years.
VOCs are not monitored.VOCs are not monitored.
HypothesisHypothesis: An increase of VOCs yields an : An increase of VOCs yields an increase of ozone. Therefore, Rincrease of ozone. Therefore, R22 > 0 for a > 0 for a correlation between ozone and VOCs. correlation between ozone and VOCs.
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2005 Ozone vs. VOCs
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
April May June July August Sept Oct
Month
PP
M
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
Tons Ozone
VOC
2020
20052005Month Ozone VOC
April 0.062 1000.42
May 0.062 992.87
June 0.051 959.81
July 0.041 980.49
August 0.051 980.67
Sept 0.056 922.22
Oct 0.039 978.73
RR22 = 0.083502
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NOx vs. OzoneNOx vs. Ozone
Like VOCs, NOx emissions are not monitored Like VOCs, NOx emissions are not monitored like ozone.like ozone.
Division of Air Quality releases estimates of Division of Air Quality releases estimates of how much the Asheville Plant emits monthly how much the Asheville Plant emits monthly every three years.every three years.
Last time was 2005 (before any scrubbers Last time was 2005 (before any scrubbers were installed)were installed)
2222
NOx vs. OzoneNOx vs. Ozone
HypothesisHypothesis: An increase of NOX yields an : An increase of NOX yields an increase of ozone. increase of ozone.
Therefore, RTherefore, R22 > 0 for a correlation between > 0 for a correlation between ozone and NOx. ozone and NOx.
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2005 Ozone vs. NOx
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
April May June July August Sept Oct
Month
PP
M
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
NO
x (t
ons)
Ozone
NOx
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2005 NOx vs. Ozone2005 NOx vs. OzoneMonth Ozone Nox
April 0.062 1270.39
May 0.062 1208.71
June 0.051 1161.91
July 0.041 1266.23
August 0.051 1304.84
Sept 0.056 1204.67
Oct 0.039 1311.73
RR22 = -0.43349
Negative correlation??????????
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ExplanationExplanation
Sunlight reacts with NOxSunlight reacts with NOx
NOx + sunlight NOx + sunlight NO + O NO + O
O + OO + O22 O O33
2626
ExplanationExplanation
The ozone created from this reaction then reacts The ozone created from this reaction then reacts with more NOx…with more NOx…
NOx + ONOx + O33 NOx + O NOx + O22
No net gain or loss of ozone!No net gain or loss of ozone!
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ExplanationExplanation
It’s the addition of VOCs into the atmosphere It’s the addition of VOCs into the atmosphere that alters the chemistry which contributes to that alters the chemistry which contributes to elevated levels of ozone.elevated levels of ozone.
NOx + VOC + sunlight NOx + VOC + sunlight O O33
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Ozone PredictionOzone Prediction
Predicting ozone levels is a lot more Predicting ozone levels is a lot more complicated than what we think.complicated than what we think.
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New HypothesisNew Hypothesis
In order to reduce ozone levels, we must In order to reduce ozone levels, we must reduce the sunlight or VOC amounts…reduce the sunlight or VOC amounts…
We cannot stop sunlight, so in order to We cannot stop sunlight, so in order to decrease ozone, we must accompany the NOx decrease ozone, we must accompany the NOx reduction with a VOC reduction.reduction with a VOC reduction.
Is it possible?Is it possible?
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The FutureThe Future
Analysis of 2008 data – is there still a negative Analysis of 2008 data – is there still a negative correlation between NOx and Ozone?correlation between NOx and Ozone?
Why was there a natural decreasing trend in Why was there a natural decreasing trend in ozone?ozone?
Possibility of a lag?Possibility of a lag?
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ReferencesReferences http://www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/akcarr/formation.htmlhttp://www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/akcarr/formation.html
http://www.ncair.orghttp://www.ncair.org
Tropospheric Air Pollution: Ozone, Airborne Toxics, Polycuclic Aromatic Tropospheric Air Pollution: Ozone, Airborne Toxics, Polycuclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, and Particles.Hydrocarbons, and Particles. Pitts & Pitts Pitts & Pitts
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric SciencesStatistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Daniel S. Wilkes. Daniel S. Wilkes
North American Mesoscale Model – Community Multiscale Air Quality Model North American Mesoscale Model – Community Multiscale Air Quality Model Ozone Forecast Verification Study For Knoxville, TN (Summer 2005).Ozone Forecast Verification Study For Knoxville, TN (Summer 2005). Loren C. Loren C. MarzMarz