1 acquiring human capital through the generations through migration james p. smith liam delaney

1

Acquiring Human Capital Through the Generations Through

Migration

James P. Smith

Liam Delaney

2

Goal of the Research

• International migration as a pathway to acquiring Human Capital for succeeding generations

• Study international migration to the United States from the important European sending countries over the last two centuries

– England, Germany, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, Scotland, Italy, and Poland

– 70% of European migrants to the US between 1850 and 1970

3

Scale of European Migration to the United States

Time periodTotal(000)

% European of Total Migrants

1851-1870 4,913 92.0

1871-1890 8,058 87.0

1891-1910 12,483 93.6

1911-1930 9,843 68.9

1931-1950 1,563 61.9

1951-1970 5,836 42.3

1971-1990 11,831 12.7

4

European Sending Countries as % of European Migrants to USA

Time UK Irish Germans Scandi-navian Italians Polish

All Six as % of Total

European

1851-70 22.8 29.9 38.5 3.3 0.05 0.01 95.1

1871-90 19.3 15.6 31.0 14.1 5.2 0.1 85.0

1891-10 6.8 6.2 7.2 7.5 23.1 0.1 50.9

1911-30 10.0 5.3 12.5 12.9 23.0 1.4 65.1

1931-50 17.7 3.2 35.2 3.8 13.0 2.6 75.5

1951-70 16.9 3.3 27.1 1.6 16.2 2.6 67.7

1971-90 17.7 3.1 9.0 NA 10.8 9.4 50.0

5

Sources of Data—What do we need to know

• Education – Years of Schooling Completed

• Immigrant Generations – 1st (immigrants), 2nd (American born children of immigrants), 3rd+ (grandchildren of immigrants), etc., etc.

• Country of Origin or Ethnicity used for 4th plus or 3rd plus

6

Sources of Data

• Decennial Censuses—1940-1970

– Education 1st asked in 1940

• Current Population Surveys (CPS) since 1994

• American Community Survey (since 2000)

• General Social Survey since 1994

– 1st. 2nd. 3rd. 4+ generations

7

Defining the Generations

• 1st Generation = Country of Birth not in USA but in one of these European countries

• 2nd Generation = Born in the USA and a parent born outside the USA and in one of these European countries

• 3rd Generation+ = Person and Parents Born in USA but claims an European ethnic heritage from these countries

– Or grandparents born in this list of European countries or grandparents born in one of these European countries

8

Data—Possible Sources of Bias

• Mortality Bias with less educated dying sooner

• Exaggeration Bias increasing education over time

• Emigration Bias

• Childhood Immigrant Bias

• Length of Generation Bias

• Cannot eliminate these biases completely, but can mitigate them and access them

– Work is continuing on this

9

Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish MalesYear of Immigrant

Birth First Second Third

1861-1865 6.81 8.70 10.91

1866-1870 6.92 8.99 11.60

1871-1875 7.03 9.29 12.14

1876-1880 7.45 9.65 12.48

1881-1885 7.72 10.30 12.93

1886-1890 7.88 10.92 13.18

1891-1895 8.24 11.61 13.58

1896-1900 8.49 12.15 13.98

1901-1905 8.91 12.48 13.80

1906-1910 9.54 12.94 13.67

1911-1915 10.39 13.19 13.65

1916-1920 11.40 13.58 13.99

1921-1925 11.41 13.98 13.92

1926-1930 11.90 13.79 13.83

1931-1935 12.33 13.67 13.66

1936-1940 12.64 13.64

1941-1945 13.22 13.99

1946-1950 13.98 13.91

1951-1955 14.15 13.83

1956-1960 14.10 13.65

10



1861-1865 6.81 8.70 10.91

1866-1870 6.92 8.99 11.60

1871-1875 7.03 9.29 12.14

1876-1880 7.45 9.65 12.48

1881-1885 7.72 10.30 12.93

1886-1890 7.88 10.92 13.18

1891-1895 8.24 11.61 13.58

1896-1900 8.49 12.15 13.98

1901-1905 8.91 12.48 13.80

1906-1910 9.54 12.94 13.67

1911-1915 10.39 13.19 13.65

1916-1920 11.40 13.58 13.99

1921-1925 11.41 13.98 13.92

1926-1930 11.90 13.79 13.83

1931-1935 12.33 13.67 13.66

1936-1940 12.64 13.64

1941-1945 13.22 13.99

1946-1950 13.98 13.91

1951-1955 14.15 13.83

1956-1960 14.10 13.65

11

What I do with these numbers?

• Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin

• Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country

• Compute generational gains in education from immigration

12

Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males

1861-18651866-18701871-18751876-18801881-18851886-18901891-18951896-19001901-19051906-19101911-19151916-19201921-19251926-19301931-19351936-19401941-19451946-19501951-19551956-19601961-19651966-19701971-19751976-19801981-1985

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Scandinavian English German Italian

Year of Birth

Educ

ation

13

Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females

1861-1865

1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Year of Birth

Educ

ation

14

Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males

1861-1865

1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

English Polish Scottish Irish

Year of Birth

Educ

ation

15

Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females

1861-1865

1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

English Polish Irish

Year of Birth

Educ

ation

16

Within Country Heterogeneity- Men

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

Irish Men

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

Polish Men

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

Scottish Men

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

5

10

15

20

English Men

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

17

Within Country Heterogeneity- Men

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

German Men

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

Scandinavian Men

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

Italian Men

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

18

Within Country Heterogeneity- Women

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

Irish Women

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

Polish Women

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p9002468

1012141618

Scottish Women

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p9002468

1012141618

English Women

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

19

Within Country Heterogeneity- Women

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

4

8

12

16

German Women

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

5

10

15

20

Scandinavian Women

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

p10 p25 p50 p75 p900

5

10

15

20

Italian Women

1860-1900 1901-1950 1951-1985

20





21

Gender Difference in Education by Generation—English

Men minus Women

1861-1865

1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

First Second Third

Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

22

Gender Difference in Education by Generation—German

Men minus Women

1861-1865

1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

First Second Third

Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

23

Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Italian

Men minus Women

1861-1865

1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

First Second Third

Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

24

Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Irish

1861-1865

1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

First Second Third

Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

Men minus Women

25





26



1861-1865 6.81 8.70 10.91

1866-1870 6.92 8.99 11.60

1871-1875 7.03 9.29 12.14

1876-1880 7.45 9.65 12.48

1881-1885 7.72 10.30 12.93

1886-1890 7.88 10.92 13.18

1891-1895 8.24 11.61 13.58

1896-1900 8.49 12.15 13.98

1901-1905 8.91 12.48 13.80

1906-1910 9.54 12.94 13.67

1911-1915 10.39 13.19 13.65

1916-1920 11.40 13.58 13.99

1921-1925 11.41 13.98 13.92

1926-1930 11.90 13.79 13.83

1931-1935 12.33 13.67 13.66

1936-1940 12.64 13.64

1941-1945 13.22 13.99

1946-1950 13.98 13.91

1951-1955 14.15 13.83

1956-1960 14.10 13.65

27

Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

1866

-187

0

1871

-187

5

1876

-188

0

1881

-188

5

1886

-189

0

1891

-189

5

1896

-190

0

1901

-190

5

1906

-191

0

1911

-191

5

1916

-192

0

1921

-192

5

1926

-193

0

1931

-193

5

1936

-194

0

1941

-194

5

1946

-195

0

1951

-195

5

1956

-196

0-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Gain if Migrate


Year of Immigration

Ed

uca

tio

n

28


1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Gain if Migrate


Year of Immigration

Ed

uca

tio

n

29


1866-

1870

1871-

1875

1876-

1880

1881-

1885

1886-

1890

1891-

1895

1896-

1900

1901-

1905

1906-

1910

1911-

1915

1916-

1920

1921-

1925

1926-

1930

1931-

1935

1936-

1940

1941-

1945

1946-

1950

1951-

1955

1956-

1960

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Gain if Stay


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

30


1866-1870

1871-1875

1876-1880

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Gain if Stay


Year of Immigration

Ed

uca

tio

n

31


1866

-187

0

1871

-187

5

1876

-188

0

1881

-188

5

1886

-189

0

1891

-189

5

1896

-190

0

1901

-190

5

1906

-191

0

1911

-191

5

1916

-192

0

1921

-192

5

1926

-193

0

1931

-193

5

1936

-194

0

1941

-194

5

1946

-195

0

1951

-195

5

1956

-196

0-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Diff = Move-Stay


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

32


1866

-187

0

1871

-187

5

1876

-188

0

1881

-188

5

1886

-189

0

1891

-189

5

1896

-190

0

1901

-190

5

1906

-191

0

1911

-191

5

1916

-192

0

1921

-192

5

1926

-193

0

1931

-193

5

1936

-194

0

1941

-194

5

1946

-195

0

1951

-195

5

1956

-196

0-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Diff = Move-Stay


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

33

Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

1866-1870

1871-1875

1976-1980

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Gain if Migrate

English German Italian Scandinavian

Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

34


1866-1870

1871-1875

1976-1980

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Gain if Migrate


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

35


1866-

1870

1871-

1875

1976-

1980

1881-

1885

1886-

1890

1891-

1895

1896-

1900

1901-

1905

1906-

1910

1911-

1915

1916-

1920

1921-

1925

1926-

1930

1931-

1935

1936-

1940

1941-

1945

1946-

1950

1951-

1955

1956-

1960

0

1

2

3

4

5


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

Gain if Stay

36


1866-1870

1871-1875

1976-1980

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Gain if Stay


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

37


1866-1870

1871-1875

1976-1980

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Diff = Move-Stay


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

38


1866-1870

1871-1875

1976-1980

1881-1885

1886-1890

1891-1895

1896-1900

1901-1905

1906-1910

1911-1915

1916-1920

1921-1925

1926-1930

1931-1935

1936-1940

1941-1945

1946-1950

1951-1955

1956-1960

-1

0

1

2

3

Diff = Move-Stay


Year of Birth

Ed

uca

tio

n

39

What can we say about constant migration selection assumption?

• No real data for 19th and early part of 20th century since European data on mean education by birth cohorts almost non-existent over that period

• Theory might help about plausible direction of trends

• For more recent 20th century birth cohorts there are sources of comparable education data in Europe

– This is a work in progress

40

Theory - Basic Selection Model

(i) A iA H iH iw k w k

0 1ii A Hw w

0iii ( ( 1))i H ik w

cost of migrationi

0 10; 1

41

Selection Model—Implications

• As cost of migration goes up, migrants are more positively selected in education

• As income differences between US and sending countries contracts (βo), migrants are more positively selected

42

Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1870- 2000

187018771884189118981905191219191926193319401947195419611968197519821989199620030.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

germanrel italyrel swedenrel ukrel

Year

43

Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1920-2000

19201924

19281932

19361940

19441948

19521956

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

20080.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

germanrel italyrel swedenrel irelandrel ukrel polandrel

Year

44

Income of European Countries Relative to the United States

1845185118571863186918751881188718931899190519111917192319291935194119471953195919651971197719830.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

germanrel italyrel swedenrel ukrel

Year

45

Income of European Countries Relative to the United States

1895

1898

1901

1904

1907

1910

1913

1916

1919

1922

1925

1928

1931

1934

1937

1940

1943

1946

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

germanrel italyrel swedenrel irelandrel ukrel polandrel

Year

46

What happened to selection movers

• In 19th century in era of unrestricted migration– migration costs probably fell– Income excess of UK fell but no real trends in other

countries until late 19th century

• In first part 20th century incomes rose relative to US

• In second part of 20th century, relative incomes of Italy and especially Ireland rose- BUT

• international European migrants became supply restricted and were largely (75%) family related visas (spouses, siblings, parents)

47

Education Selection by Gender

• Compute Education levels in European sending countries by birth cohorts using European General Social Survey education

• Diff- Ed of Migrants – Ed of Stayers by Birth Cohort

48

Male Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Men and Diff between Immigrant

and Stayer Education

England Ireland Germany Italy Poland Scandinavia

Birth Year Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff

1921-1925 10.80 2.58 10.51 0.90 12.01 0.34 8.13 1.45 8.09 2.59 9.42 3.10

1926-1930 11.13 2.57 10.83 1.07 12.12 -0.42 7.33 1.99 9.20 1.87 10.27 2.73

1931-1935 12.01 2.20 10.50 1.83 12.32 0.28 8.52 0.53 9.18 2.78 10.16 3.21

1936-1940 12.55 2.16 11.58 1.06 12.73 0.53 8.54 1.09 10.18 2.50 11.19 2.74

1941-1945 12.25 2.35 11.93 1.29 13.54 -0.37 9.90 0.72 10.59 2.56 12.08 2.62

1946-1950 13.02 1.71 11.83 2.15 13.99 -0.16 10.21 2.00 11.58 2.35 12.64 2.46

1951-1955 13.59 0.95 12.46 1.69 13.95 0.02 12.24 0.27 11.61 2.06 13.28 1.85

1956-1960 14.01 0.39 13.28 0.82 14.07 -0.20 11.37 1.81 12.12 1.54 13.55 1.62

1961-1965 13.77 0.55 13.63 0.35 14.34 -0.47 11.73 1.75 12.55 1.03 13.75 1.49

1966- 1970 13.78 0.96 13.82 0.52 14.35 -0.20 12.90 1.15 12.83 0.77 14.07 1.54

1971-1975 14.34 0.37 14.60 -0.25 14.53 -0.15 13.28 0.92 13.41 0.41 14.57 0.81

1976-1980 14.48 0.04 14.82 -0.75 14.81 -0.55 13.39 0.99 13.37 0.51 14.57 0.74

49

Female Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Women and Diff between

Immigrant and Stayer Education England Ireland Germany Italy Poland Scandinavia

Birth Year Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe

Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff Europe Diff

1921-1925 10.71 1.16 10.27 1.22 10.01 1.90 5.21 3.61 7.00 2.76 8.99 2.95

1926-1930 10.74 1.36 10.96 0.68 10.27 1.67 6.85 1.66 7.10 2.89 8.81 3.63

1931-1935 11.30 1.30 10.86 1.08 10.54 1.49 7.71 0.31 8.71 2.30 9.62 3.15

1936-1940 11.81 1.00 11.57 0.68 11.40 1.08 7.89 0.59 9.19 2.70 10.76 2.76

1941-1945 12.39 0.76 11.83 0.75 12.04 0.87 8.47 1.18 9.96 2.51 11.59 2.25

1946-1950 13.00 0.57 12.26 0.99 12.64 0.90 9.27 1.88 10.77 2.60 12.57 1.56

1951-1955 12.97 0.94 13.32 0.69 13.33 0.90 9.99 2.10 11.80 2.81 13.54 0.88

1956-1960 13.62 1.35 13.47 0.56 13.49 0.36 11.31 1.80 12.64 1.04 14.19 0.41

1961-1965 13.75 0.29 13.83 0.20 13.81 0.02 11.96 1.53 12.87 0.88 14.37 0.47

1966- 1970 13.89 0.62 14.49 -0.18 14.00 0.22 11.79 2.29 13.31 0.73 14.93 0.24

1971-1975 14.47 0.16 14.55 0.02 13.91 0.31 12.89 1.56 13.78 0.34 15.16 0.10

1976-1980 14.28 0.71 14.94 -0.20 14.15 0.15 13.79 1.08 14.21 0.50 15.01 -0.23

50

Conclusions

• Large heterogeneity within and across countries in European migrants to the USA

• Measuring Human Capital gains through international migration across generations requires knowing what was happening in sending and receiving countries

• In the European context, these gains are particularly large among Polish and Italian migrants

1 acquiring human capital through the generations through migration james p. smith liam delaney

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