1 4. potential of energy resources 5. conservation – barriers 6. conservation possibilities 7. uk...
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
5. CONSERVATION – BARRIERS
6. Conservation Possibilities
7. UK Energy Consumption
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future
2010
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
4.1. CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE
Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 1013 W.consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW
i.e. 10 times current demand
Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely valuein range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).
Country Energy Requirement
Population Per Capita
World 12.0 TW 6000 M 2.0 kW
USA 3.0 TW 300 M 10.0 kW
Europe 2.0 TW 350 M 5.7 kW
UK 0.3 TW 60 M 5.0 kW
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4.2 PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES
decades:- centuries: millennia:
projected average consumption of 40 TW annual consumption will be:- 1.25 x 1021 J
Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:-
Oil Reserves:- 5 x 1021 J Gas Reserves:- 4 x 1021 J Uranium:- 1 x 1021 J Coal Reserves:- 2.6 x 1022 J Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 1 x 1023 J Fusion (Deuterium):- 1 x 1030 J
D – D fusionCoal,Geothermal, D – T fusion, 232Th
235U, Tar sands,238U,
Oil ShalesOil, Gas,
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4.3 "RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES"
Orders of magnitude only
Practically Achievable:-
1010 - Tidal (i.e. 1 x 1010 to 1 x 1011)
1011 - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes
1012 - Hydro; Wind; Waves
1013 – Solar
Projected demand is 40 TW – 4 x 1013 W
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical Practical Realised to date
TW GW GW
NON-SOLAR
Tidal 3 50 1 France, Russia, China
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
GWGWTW
Realised to date
PracticalTheoretical
France, Russia, China
1503Tidal
NON-SOLAR
Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand
1060+30Geothermal
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
GWGWTW
Realised to date
PracticalTheoretical
France, Russia, China
0.25503Tidal
NON-SOLAR
Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand
10.5 (Electrical)
0.5 Heat
60+30Geothermal
USA, Israel, Spain, Germany: third world
3.6 electrical 0.2 Active Solar
3000030000(on land)
SOLAR Direct
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Normal hot water circuit
Solar Circuit
Solar Pump
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Solar Gain (kWh/day)
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10 20 30 9 19 29 8 18 28 10 20 30 9 19 29 9 19 29 8 18 28 8 18 28 7 17 27 6 16 26 6 16 26 5 15 25 5 15 1 11 21 31 10
Day of Month
Solar
Gain
(kW
h)
December JanuaryFebruary MarchApril MayJune JulyAugust SeptemberOctober NovemberDecember
Solar Hot Water
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0.5
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Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
kWh
/ d
ay
2006 - 07
2007 - 08
4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical Practical Realised to date
TW GW GW
SOLAR Indirect
Wind 30 1000 80 and rising rapidly
USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 4100 MW in UK
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
GWGWTW
Realised to date
PracticalTheoretical
USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 4100MW in UK
80 and rising rapidly
100030Wind
SOLAR Indirect
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
GWGWTW
Realised to date
PracticalTheoretical
USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 3000 MW in UK
63 and rising rapidly
100030Wind
SOLAR Indirect
UK, Norway, Japan
0.01303Waves
USA0.00130030OTEC
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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
Theoretical Practical Realised to date
TW GW GW
Hydro 30+ 2000 800 USA, Brazil, Canada, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Malaysia etc.
Biomass/ Wastes
300 1000 43 Electrical28 Heat
Various
Brazil - Bioethanol
SOLAR Indirect
Hydrogen????
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5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future
2010
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5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS
5.1 GOVERNMENTAL • preference to support supply rather than conservation;
• long term historic memories, • consequential political overtones if they under
estimate future supply requirements.
• where grants have been made available, they have often been too late, and too restrictive - and deterred those who have made an investment in the past from doing so in the future. • situation now changing - although somewhat
restrictive
• Is the method adopted in US during the Carter Administration a preferential one?
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5.1 GOVERNMENTAL BARRIERS
• lack of / or inadequate legislation to promote conservation (2006
Building Regulations do address some issues, but they are too late and there are still loop holes - so encourages minimum compliance rather than promoting conservation.)
• delays in decision making favour supply rather than conservation
• reluctance in past at Local Government Level to implement tougher measures - e.g. Building Industry who argue against such measures - Exceptions:- Southampton City Council; Milton Keynes. The Merton Rule is a step in the right direction
• reluctance to promote strategies which could cost Government votes at next election (e.g. higher taxation on petrol etc.) - many measures take a period longer than lifetime of Government to become effective.
• enactment of legislation which is has loose or incorrect wording:- 1947 Electricity Act in UK. Conservation Bill in US in 1979.
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5.2 VESTED INTERESTS
• manufacturing industries continuing to promote out of date products and/or energy wasteful products - or to give Pseudo-Conservation Information.
• retailers promoting products on the capital outlay, or other attributes, and not energy consumption.
• scheduling of TV programs
• cowboy firms making unsubstantiated claims.
• preference to view Energy Conservation in terms of MONETARY saving rather than Resource saving.
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5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
Incorporation of retrospective pollution controls usually INCREASES energy consumption.
e.g. Removal of SO2 leads to:-
a) reduced efficiency at power stations, hence increased CO2
b) as SO2 is converted even more CO2 is produced
c) Limestone required from Peak District etc.
d) Disposal of waste Gypsum
e) Additional Transport needed to power stations
FGD plant are large - comparable to size of power station (excluding cooling towers).
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5. CONSERVATION - DIFFICULTIES
5.4 PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS
• laws of thermodynamics limit efficiency of energy conversion.• climate affects energy consumption• geological resources in a country will affect utilisation of energy. e.g. it makes sense to use electricity for heating in Norway which has abundant hydro-electricity, but not in UK.
5.5 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS
• old buildings/appliances which have a long life so improvements in energy efficiency will take time to become effective.
• difficulty in making perfect machine
• difficulty in achieving high insulation standards in brick built buildings
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5.6 SOCIAL ATTITUDES
• desire for greater thermal comfort. Comfort temperatures have risen over last 30 years.
• desire for greater mobility.
• desire for smaller households in larger and individual buildings (unlike many other European Countries).
• come to depend on reliability of energy supply (contrast situation in late 50's).
• While Energy labelling on appliances is helpful it can give misleading information – e.g. A rated American style freezers often consume more than “C” rated European models. Energy rating of frost free appliances conveys wrong message.
• disregarding notices/adverts designed to promote energy conservation.
• short memories - previous high costs of energy are forgotten when energy becomes cheap.
• sliding back into old habits.• energy conservation not often seen as important as direct
investment even when the returns are much greater. • decisions made on impulse with little regard to energy used.
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5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS
• We expect a pay back for any investment in a short period
• Assessment of an Energy project depends not only on the rate of return we expect (allowing for inflation etc.) which is related to the Discount Rate, but on how fuel prices are seen to change in the future.
• In the mid 1970's, it was predicted by many that the REAL price of energy would at least double by the end of the century.
• In practice energy is now cheaper in real terms than in 1970's
• Widely fluctuating fuel prices, and expectations on return can create a STOP GO attitude towards rational spending on Energy saving projects.
• In Industry, Energy Saving has to compete with increased productivity.
• A new process which takes half the space of an old equivalent one, produces the same number of items in half the time would be favoured EVEN if it consumed 50-100% more in Energy (as labour costs would be reduced and profits increased because the price of Energy is TOO LOW).
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
kW
h in
per
iod
No of people in household
Electricity Consumption
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5 people
6 people
Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption
Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich
For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.
When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
The Behavioural Dimension
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5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS
• The choice of a particular Discount Rate will load the dice in favour of a particular option if only Economics is used in decision making EVEN IF EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS ARE INCLUDED.
Fig. 5.1 Effect of Discount Rate on Economic Viability of Energy Projects
High Discount Rates favour Coal
Medium Discount Rates favour Nuclear
Low/zero/negative Discount Rates favour Conservation and Renewables
Discount Rate
Present Value
+ve-ve Ca
pit
al C
ost
s
coal
coal
nuclear
nuclear
Renewables/conservation
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5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS
Time
Energy Demand
Projection
1973
2004
Low growth
Technical fix
Business as Usual
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
kW per Head
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
GD
P p
er
he
ad
(U
S$
(95)
USA
Russia
Canada
China
India
UK
Japan
Germany
Poland
France
Qatar
Other EU Countries
Nordic EU New EU
Mediterranean EU
The wealth of a country and energy requirements are related
Energy – GDP Relationships
Energy – GDP relationships• As an exercise in unit conversion download the energy-
GDP relationships file from the Web Page.• Convert the units of thousand tonnes of oil equivalent into
PetaJoules.• Work out the energy requirement associated with £1 of
GDP.• Plot the relationship with time - How has this changed
over the last 60 years?• Noting the energy requirement for £1 wealth, estimate
what the price of petrol and diesel should be if society valued energy at the same level as wealth generally if the energy content of a litre of petrol is 32.9 MJ/litre and that of diesel is 35.7 MJ/litre
• As an exercise in your own time – repeat the analysis for each of the fuels Coal, Gas, Oil, Electricity separately.
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6. Conservation Possibilities
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future
2010
30
7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.
Technical Education Energy Management
Technical Measures will have limited impact on energy consumption if people are not educated to use energy wisely.
Energy Management is a key aspect in energy conservation
A good Energy Manager will:- Assess Energy Demand - record keeping Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical
factors Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy
conservation Advertise and publicise ways to save energy Account for energy consumed
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Significant saving are possible by reducing waste in conversion of energy to secondary fuels.
Significant savings are possible in some area in end use appliance efficiency - e.g. low energy light bulbs. [but do not get confused between low voltage and low energy!]
Effective Energy Conservation and Environmental Legislation may well see a rise in electricity consumption in the short term.
promotion of heat pumps - require electricity industry switching to more efficient electrically driven
processes. e.g. Case Hardening move towards electric cars.????? Hydrogen???????
7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.
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• Energy Conservation requires innovative “joined-up” thinking.
• Some of the best ideas come from individuals.
• What do you see as possibilities?• Would a move to Hydrogen powered vehicles be
viable in foreseeable future?
• What are the problems?
• Work in pairs and answer the questions at the end of the handout
7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.
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7. UK Energy Consumption
Maxine Narburgh
CSERGE
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future
2010
34
Per Capita Consumption in Watts ~ 5 kW
7. UK Energy Consumption
The recent reductions are not as dramatic as appear above as total population has increased by 2.1 million since 2000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008
Domestic 816 882 902 1056 1060 1078 998 958 987
Transport 623 786 1076 1250 1207 1282 1310 1302 1272
Industry 1379 1069 855 797 769 735 713 690 662
Other 411 414 425 486 442 450 436 421 390
Conversion 1712 1565 1745 1680 1844 1635 1629 1549 1503
Total 4942 4716 5004 5270 5321 5180 5086 4921 4814
Non-Energy 240 165 249 277 241 270 261 212 220
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8. UK Energy Consumption (Watts/capita)
• Consumption is roughly 5 kW per capita• Industrial Consumption has declined• Transport Consumption has increased• Despite much improved insulation standards
domestic energy use has remained almost static
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UK Russia India Colombia Libya USA China
Production 4965 10748 566 2220 19377 7344 1564
Imports 187 -4796 129 -1414 -15248 3065 74
Total Supply 5152 5952 695 806 4129 10409 1638
Conversion/Distribution losses 1544 2007 206 136 1933 3245 581
Total Consumption 3608 3945 489 669 2196 7164 1057
Industry 721 1179 116 188 330 1344 436
Transport 1209 881 44 217 906 2861 106
Domestic 989 1250 279 122 403 1188 328
Commercial 416 296 9 42 n/a 962 54
Agriculture 20 90 9 51 27 76 41
Non-Energy 254 248 32 50 529 733 92
Imports/Exports 3.6% -80.6% 18.5% -175.4% -369.3% 29.4% 4.5%
% Conversion/Transmission Losses 30.0% 33.7% 29.6% 16.9% 46.8% 31.2% 35.5%
7. Comparative Energy Consumption (Watts/Capita)
Energy Security
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
bil
ion
bar
rels
per
an
nu
m
actual discoveries
projected discoveries
demand
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Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
self sufficiency
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Import Gap
Actual Nuclear
Projected Nuclear
Actual Coal with FGD
Opted Out Coal
Renewables
New Nuclear?
New Coal ???
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
There is a looming capacity shortfall
Even with a full deployment of
renewables.
A 10% reduction in demand per
house will see a rise of 7% in total demand
- Increased population decreased
household size
Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
4010/04/23
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
Actual
Business as Usual
Energy Efficiency
The Gas Scenario
Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.
Replacements for ageing plant
Additions to deal with demand changes
Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010
25% renewables by 2025
Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 400 TWh by 2010
But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)
Business as Usual
257% increase in gas consumption
( compared to 2002)
Electricity Options for the Future
Gas Consumption
0
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100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
bil
lion
cu
bic
me
tre
s Actual
Business as Usual
Energy Efficiency
4110/04/23
Energy Efficiency Scenario
Other Options
Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and
excessive gas demand is to be avoided
Business as Usual Scenario
New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mto
nn
es C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
Alternative Electricity Options for the Future
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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
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Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
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1.33 billion people
0.94 billion people
Raw materials
1.03 billion people
Products: 478 M
tonnes
CO 2 increase (2
002-05)
Aid
& E
du
cation
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years (2002 – 2005)
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And Finally
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 ( 604-531BC )中国古代思想家、哲学家
“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” (直译):“如果你不改变,你将止步于原地。”
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
47Per capita Carbon Emissions
UK
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
China
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rElectricity Generation i n selected Countries