1 2015 prepare! local planning to respond to our changing demographic profile

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20152015PREPARE!PREPARE!

LOCAL PLANNING TO LOCAL PLANNING TO RESPOND TO OUR RESPOND TO OUR

CHANGING CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILEDEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

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PROJECT 2015TAKING IT TO THE STREETS

PREPARING FOR THE IMPACT OF AN AGING, MORE DIVERSE NEW YORK

IN OUR COUNTIES2003

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Purpose

Provide information and education about New York’s changing demographic profile – state and county-based.

Enable us at the local level to prepare, plan and take action to address the county-level impact of changing demographics.

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This presentation:

Introduction

Project 2015: Taking it to the Streets and Background

Demographics

State Agency Process – Example for Strategic Planning

Taking it to the Streets – Local Planning, Local Action

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I INTRODUCTION

New York’s changing demographic profile – both the aging and increasing diversity of our population – deserves our attention.

Its impacts will be felt on all facets of community life – especially in the coming years.

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II BACKGROUND Project 2015 - Yesterday

2000 – State Society on Aging (SSA) and NYSOFA Partnership

publications: Project 2015: The Future of Aging in New York State -- Articles and Briefs for Discussion (2000)

Demographic Projections to 2025 (NYSOFA, 1999)

2000-2001 – SSA and NYSOFA Regional Community ForumsLong Island, Ithaca, Rochester, New York City

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BACKGROUND Project 2015 – Yesterday

2002 – Governor’s Initiative

Governor Pataki: 36 State Cabinet agencies prepare a Brief describing the impact of an aging and more diverse population on their agency’s policies, programs and practices.

Publications:

Project 2015: State Agencies Prepare for the Impact of an Aging New York - White Paper for Discussion (NYSOFA, 2002).

Project 2015: New York State Population Characteristics by County (Robert Scardamalia, Empire State Development, October 2002)

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PROJECT 2015: TAKING IT TO THE STREETS

The next part of this presentation, and the support materials that go along with it, are designed to provide the tools to help our county begin to:

Identify major demographic shifts in New York and our county.

Understand the impacts of the changing demographic profile.

Determine next steps.

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III Project 2015: State Demographic Profile and

Trends

Trend #1: Aging

Trend #2: Diversity

People on the Move:New York Migration patterns

Language

Ethnicity and Race

Family Structure

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Trend #1 - Aging

New York’s population is getting older.

The State’s median age increased from 30 years in 1970, to 32 years in 1980, and now exceeds 36 years.

This increase is due to the aging of the Baby Boom, the leading edge of which (those born in 1946) has now reached the early retirement age of 55.

The median age is even higher in rural areas than in the state as a whole (eg. Hamilton County = 45.4; Delaware = 41.4), many having a median age over 38.[Sources – Bullet 1 and 2: “2015: State Agencies Prepare for the Impact of an Aging New York –

White Paper for Discussion,” New York State Office for the Aging]. Bullet 3: Rural NY Profile: Census 2000 Data Selected Indicators. Merwin Rural Services Institute, SUNY Potsdam.]

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Population PyramidNew York State 2015

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female

U. S. Bur e a u of the Ce ns us

Trend # 1 - AgingChanging Age Structure

Look from the top graph (1990) to the bottom graph (2015). As the “bulge” in this graph moves upwards over time, you can see our population becoming collectively older.

[Source: Project 2015 – New York’s Changing Demographics” (PowerPoint presentation) by Robert Scardamalia, Chief Demographer, Empire State Development. Top graph derived from US Bureau of the Census, bottom graph derived from Cornell Institute for Social & Economic Research.]

Population PyramidNew York State, 1990

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Ma le

Fema le

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Trend # 1 - Aging

In the following slides, we can see the expected exponential growth in the 85+ population, 65+ population, and in the second slide, also in the disability rate for New York from 2000-2015.

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Trend #1 – Aging

[Source: Project 2015 – New York’s Changing Demographics” (PowerPoint presentation) by Robert Scardamalia, Chief Demographer, Empire State Development, using data derived from Cornell Institute for Social & Economic Research ]

Elderly Population by Age2000 to 2015

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

2000

2005

2010

2015

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Trend # 1 - AgingAging and Impairment: Rate of Change

NYS - Projected Growth 2000-2015 65+ and 85 + Populations and Impairment Rate (2000 as base year)

Sources: 2000 Census Summary File 1 (65 and 85 plus data), 5 year projections by Woods and Pool, Inc.

2000 Census, Summary File 3 (Impairment rate data)

0 .0%

5 .0%

1 0 .0%

1 5 .0%

2 0 .0%

2 5 .0%

3 0 .0%

Im p a ir e d 0 .0 % 2 .4 % 7 .0 % 1 6 .6 %

A g e d 6 5 + 0 .0 % 1 .2 % 6 .6 % 1 9 .3 %

A g e d 8 5 + 0 .0 % 8 .9 % 2 0 .2 % 2 8 .2 %

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5

2 . 4 %

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Trend #1 – AgingExample: Ontario County Expectations

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2000 17,329 1,689

2015 26,402 2,634

age 60+ age 85+

+ 52%

+ 56%

Ontario County’s population, although expected to grow only 3.7% overallbetween 2000 and 2015, is clearly going to be aging -- with a 52% increase in those over 60, and a 56% increase in those over 85.

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Trend #2 - DiversityPeople on the MoveMigration and Immigration

New York’s migration patterns have been consistent for many decades, with a net out-migration pattern over time (i.e. more people moving out than moving in).

Net migration by age follows a distinct life-course pattern in New York State, as shown on the slide that follows.

This and other population trends are significant for New York’s future work force, including those delivering services to our older population.

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Age-Specific Net MigrationNew York State, 1990-2000

-20.0

-1 5.0

-1 0.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

1 0.0

0-4 5-9 1 0-1 4 1 5-1 9 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

A g e

Trend #2 - DiversityPeople on the Move – Net Migration

Here we see how in New York State the highest rates of net out-migration occur among young adults [age 20-34] and also among the middle and older ages [age 50-79]. The frail elderly, meanwhile, tend to move back to New York for family and services.

[Source: Project 2015 – New York’s Changing Demographics” (PowerPoint presentation)

by Robert Scardamalia, Chief Demographer, Empire State Development]

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Trend # 2 - DiversityForeign-born Population

Due to high levels of foreign immigration – especially within NYC and the surrounding metropolitan areas – the foreign-born population statewide increased from 16% in 1990 up to 20% in 2000. That trend is expected to continue.

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0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

1990

2000

foreign born 16% 20%

native born 84% 80%

1990 2000

Trend #2 – DiversityTotal Population by Nativity, 1990-2000Increasing Foreign-born Population

[Source - “2015: State Agencies Prepare for the Impact of an Aging New York – White Paper for Discussion,”

New York State Office for the Aging]

15.11 million

15.14 million

3.87 million

2.85 million

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Trend #2 - DiversityForeign-born New Yorkers and Language

Rising percentages of foreign-born New Yorkers –an increase in those speaking languages other than English.

There are 2.3 million New Yorkers who are not proficient in speaking English today:

51% speak Spanish29% speak an Indo-European language17% speak an Asian language.

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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

% not proficient in English 49% 40% 59% 31%

Spanish speakers

Indo-European language speakers

Asian / Pacific Island

speakers

other language speakers

Trend # 2 - DiversityForeign-born New Yorkers and Language

Of those 2.3 million New Yorkers speaking a language other than English at home, between 30% and 60% were reported in the 2000 Census to speak English less than “very well”.

[Source - “2015: State Agencies Prepare for the Impact of an Aging New York – White Paper for Discussion,” New York State Office for the Aging]

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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

% speaking a languageother than English at home

21% 28% 41% 48%

1990 statewide

2000 statewide

1990 NYC 2000 NYC

Trend # 2 - DiversityForeign-born New Yorkers and Language

In New York City, where the largest concentrations of foreign-born residents are found, the percentages are even higher, with nearly one in two speaking a language other than English at home.


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Trend # 2 - DiversityPersons Speaking Another Language, NYS 2000

850,000 (22.5%)

3,555,000 (47.6%)

558,000 (8.6%)

[Source: “New York State: The Community Context” (PowerPoint presentation) by Dr. John R. Logan, Director, Lewis Mumford Center, University at Albany]

While highest in New York City [48%] and its metropolitan area [23%], nearly 9% of upstate New York residents now speak a language other than English at home.

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Trend #2 – DiversityEthnicity and Race

Between 1990 and 2000:

The Black or African American population increased by about 15%.

The Hispanic population increased by about 30%.

The Asian/ Hawaiian/Pacific Islander population increased over 70% -- the most rapid increase of all major racial groups.

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Trend #2 – DiversityEthnicity and Race

[Source: “New York State: The Community Context” (PowerPoint presentation)

by Dr. John R. Logan, Director, Lewis Mumford Center, University at Albany]

1990 2000 ChangeAll groups 17,990,455 18,976,457 5.5%White 12,460,189 11,760,981 -5.6%Black 2,569,126 2,945,427 14.6%Hispanic 2,214,026 2,867,583 29.5%Asian 693,760 1,191,050 71.7%

Population Change by Race/Ethnicity in NYS

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Trends #1 and #2 - Aging & Diversity

+93,000 (+31.6%)

+14,000 (+42.7%)

+19,000 (+48.4%)

Combining the impact of age andethnic diversity, we find that acrossall parts of New York State, from 1990-2000, the elderly minority population age 65+ has been growing – and is expected to keep doing so.

Race and Age

[Source: “New York State: The Community Context” (PowerPoint presentation)

by Dr. John R. Logan, Director, Lewis Mumford Center, University at Albany]

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The characteristics of household and

family living arrangements continue

to change.

Family structure is becoming increasingly diverse, a trend with implicit caregiving implications.

Trend #2 – DiversityFamily Structure

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Comparisons:

Non-Family Households: include persons living alone or with other non-relatives. By 2000, non-family households have increased to more than 34 percent from 22 percent in 1970.

Married Couple Families: In 1970, more than 83 percent of all families were married couple families. By 2000, the proportion of married couple families had dropped to 71 percent.

Married couple families with children: The number of married couple families with children under 18 is now 33 percent – just one third - of all families.


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Comparisons, continued:

Single female householders: This has increased to more than 22 percent by 2000 and totals 1,038,000 families. The number of single female householders with children also has increased to 573,000 in 2000.

Single male householders : While the number is small at 312,000, it has more than doubled since 1970 and now makes up nearly 7 percent of all families. The number of single male householders with children (130,000) is now more than 3 times the 1970 level.


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Households and Families by Type,New York State

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Households Families Mar r ied Couple

Families

Single Male

Families

Single Female

Families

Non-Family

Households

1970

1980

1990

2000

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New York is clearly becoming both older and more diverse – and our migration patterns continue to affect our demographic profile, including in our older population:

Languages spoken at home Ethnicity and Race Living arrangements Aging

IV Concluding Demographic Summary

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Optional slide set A for AAAs / Conveners:

Call to ActionTAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE

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Call to Action

TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE

The times they are a-changing, Vanderlyn R. Pine explains in his “Face of New York – The People” portion of the 2015 White Paper, as he translates some of the statistics we’ve seen into human terms and their planning-related implications.

Here are several particularly potent excerpts to consider:

Optional slide set A for AAAs / Conveners

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“In 2002 the vast majority of Baby Boomers are alive and well, and they are fast becoming the Elder Boom…Like it or not, in 2015 American society will not just seem different, it will be different…”

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“Elder Boomers will make new and different demands on the state system of solutions…Those Boomers who are relatively healthy, more affluent, better educated, and technologically sophisticated are likely to provide the primary impetus for change.”


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”Policy makers must bear in mind that those who are not as healthy, financially poorer, less educated, and outside the ‘mainstream’ cannot be ignored even if they are less visible and less likely to be able to press for new, relevant programs.”


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Call to Action TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE

“Programs may no longer be relevant or appropriate, but to change them is likely to be difficult…

All units of government should now be considering what the needs are likely to be in 2015 and what can we do today to be prepared for them at that time.”


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“The task of reinventing public policy is a prodigious responsibility, especially when dealing with a group as vocal and demanding as the Elder Boom. It goes without saying that their voices must be heard. The trick is listening today to predict for tomorrow…The process of planning is the key to dealing with the future successfully. Trying to anticipate the future is a more productive and valuable experience than just allowing life to happen as it will.”


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Optional slide set B for AAAs / Conveners:


(State Agency Planning Process)

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Against the backdrop of statewide demographic changes and trends, how might we use this insight?

What follows is an outline of the process New York State government used in 2002 to convene 36 cabinet agencies around the common issue of our changing demographic profile and a core set of questions to address by each individual agency.

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TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning Model - Desired Outcomes

All agencies really think about aging and diversity (raise awareness)

Engage as many as possible (broaden policy involvement)

Consider the impact of the changing demographics (initiate action)

Agencies Governor and Legislature Counties and Communities

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TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning Model

36 State Agencies Participating in Project 2015

Advocate’s Office for Persons with Disabilities

Aging Agriculture and Markets Alcohol and

Substance Abuse Services Banking Department Budget Council on Children and Families Office of Children and Family

Services Civil Service Consumer Protection Board Correctional Services Education Empire State Development Employee Relations Environmental Conservation General Services Health Housing and Community Renewal

Insurance Labor Mental Health Mental Retardation and

Developmental Disabilities Motor Vehicles Parks, Recreation and Historic

Preservation Public Service Commission Quality of Care for the Mentally

Disabled Commission Real Property Services State Emergency Management

Office State Police State University of New York Department of State Taxation and Finance Technology Temporary and Disability Assistance Transportation Veterans’ Affairs

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3-part Briefs were prepared and submitted by each state agency for New York State’s White Paper.


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3-Part Brief: Components

I. Internal Scan

The impact of the State’s changing demographics on your agency.

Describe any actions that you have initiated to respond to the changing demographics.

Optional slide set B for AAAs / Conveners

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Optional slide set B for AAAs / Conveners



II. Priority Issue Areas

Each agency selected the three most important functions or issue areas from their internal scan.

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III. Response Plans

Define actions over the next five to seven years.

Specify anticipated outcomes.

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Project 2015: State Agencies Prepare for the Impact of an Aging New York – White Paper for Discussion

This book may help counties that want to undertake a large-scale planning process. The array of priority issue areas and response plans from 36 state cabinet agencies is a wealth of information to build from at the local level.


The Product

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TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning ModelThe Product

Their (state agencies’) work provides a substantial, practical guide for assuring that the goods and services provided by government meet the needs of New York’s increasingly diverse [and aging] population.”

[Source: 2015 White Paper Introductory Letter by Patricia Pine, Ph.D. Director, NYSOFA]


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TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning ModelThe Product

From that statewide process, the Project 2015 White Paper emerged as a live working resource:

“I invite you to use the information and ideas in this document…in local communities around the state.”

[Source: 2015 White Paper Introductory Letter by Patricia Pine, Ph.D. Director, NYSOFA]


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Optional slide set C for AAAs /Conveners:

TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE State Agency Case Study

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Optional slide set C for AAAs / Conveners


State Agency Case Study:

Department of Motor Vehicles

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State Agency Case Study:Department of Motor Vehicles

From this Case Study of the Brief prepared by the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) in 2002, we can learn about how DMV:

[a] identified the many probable impacts of aging and diversity on their agency, and[b] narrowed down the myriad possible issue areas to three priorities which were both

1. most closely aligned with their core mission and competencies.

2. most feasibly accomplished within the short term.

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TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning ModelState Agency Case StudyDepartment of Motor Vehicles

Background

1. Today, 1 in 5 drivers is over age 60. By 2015, 1 in 4 will be over 60.

2. Many will be lifelong drivers, reluctant to give up their car keys.

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TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning ModelState Agency Process Case Study

Department of Motor Vehicles:

Internal Scan (Examples of issues)

The aging and ethnically diverse population will stress DMV services and cause the agency to review its overall service network [e.g., office sites, mobile outreach alternatives, languages of forms and transactions, etc.]

Optional slide set C for AAAs / Conveners:

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II Priority Issue Areas

Out of nine key issues identified (highway safety, customer service, training, testing, message/ marketing, politics, revenue, services to other agencies, and technology) three were selected – because they correlate most closely with the agency’s mission and core competencies, and because of the urgency they present for long-term planning:

1. Customer Service2. Highway Safety3. Message / Marketing



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IIIResponse Plans – Actions and Results (Examples)

Issue #1: Customer ServiceActions: Mobile service outlets and partnerships with AAA, AARP, etc.: Expand the number of outlets where customers can obtain DMV services without making traditional office visits.

Results: More customer-satisfying transactions and services in locales and formats that better meet customer round-the-clock needs.

TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning Model State Agency Process Case Study Department of Motor Vehicles

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Issue #2: Highway Safety Actions: Develop programs targeted to senior drivers that improve driving

performance, deliver training and education, and encourage self-

assessment. Explore licensing options that accommodate senior

drivers’ driving patterns and expectations.

Results: Safer highways, measured by lower fatality rates and less serious

injuries within the senior driving population.


TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning Model State Agency Process Case StudyDepartment of Motor Vehicles:

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Issue #2: Highway Safety Actions: Explore technologies (eg. simulators) that can provide

senior drivers with more self-assessment tools to understand the impact of aging on driving performance.

Results: More knowledgeable and self confident drivers through

education and licensing, especially among seniors.


TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE New York State Planning Model State Agency Process Case StudyDepartment of Motor Vehicles:

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Issue #3: Message / MarketingActions:Develop senior-friendly information (e.g.,

more readable forms) and service channels (like mobile services) publicizing DMV’s highway safety programs and goals.

Results: Increase overall number and

effectiveness of DMV’s safety messages. Ensure that all DMV customers -- especially senior drivers -- will have the information they need about the impact of aging on driving.




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Optional slide set D for AAAs / Conveners:

TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE Making it Happen

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The model just described is intended as an example of the content that emerges from a structured process to address specific questions.

DMV typically does not focus on issues of aging and diversity, but the strategic planning process used enabled them to do so, and demonstrates that any organization may be included in such a process.

The DMV example demonstrates results from New York State government’s strategic planning process.

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To adapt this work to the local level, by changing the word “state” to “county”, and changing “agency” to “organization”, the same questions that the State asked each cabinet agency could be used to help guide you and your partners – whether public or private, profit or not-for-profit -- through your own 2015 planning process.

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Optional slide set D for AAAs / Conveners

INTERNAL SCAN:

Consider the impact of the county’s changing demographics on your organization. What are your organization’s overarching policy issues, direction, program considerations, changing constituency needs, and management issues related to these changing demographics?

Some organizations may have already begun to address this impact. If yours has done so, what is your organization currently doing to address or respond to these anticipated changes?


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PRIORITY ISSUE AREAS:

Based on your organization’s internal scan, prioritize up to three policy issues, program considerations, etc. that your organization considers to be the most important to follow up on.


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RESPONSE PLANS- ACTIONS AND RESULTS:

For each of the priority issue areas, what recommended actions could your organization take in the next 5-7 years to address the priorities you have identified that reflect the impact of the anticipated demographic changes? Also, consider collaborative approaches among community organizations and how such collaborations could fit into an overall community planning process.

What are several results you expect to achieve through your recommended actions?


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“For practitioners of the art of policy formation, development, and implementation, the … challenge is to winnow from the projections as many creative ways as possible to deal with the Elder Boomers in 2015.”

ConclusionThe Challenge Ahead

Source: Vanderlyn R. Pine, Ph.D.“The Face of New York – The People” 2015 White Paper

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What matters is that we:

Become engaged and knowledgeable about our county’s changing population;

Enable our county to become aware of the approaching Elder Boom; and

Enable our county to be equipped to deal with the challenges that will come with these changing demographics.

The Challenge Ahead

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The key elements are engagement, planning and action.

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THANK YOUTHANK YOU

1 2015 prepare! local planning to respond to our changing demographic profile

Documents

demographic information

demographic profile

new york city

new york state office

current project

word county

single county

aging new york white