1. 2 functions/objectives of science and scientific theories? to describe: specifying what makes a...

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FUNCTIONS/OBJECTIVES OF SCIENCE AND FUNCTIONS/OBJECTIVES OF SCIENCE AND SCIENTIFIC THEORIES?SCIENTIFIC THEORIES?

To Describe:To Describe:Specifying Specifying whatwhat makes a phenomenon occur and makes a phenomenon occur and howhow. What. Whatare the factors contributing to its occurrence, and how?)are the factors contributing to its occurrence, and how?)

To Explain:To Explain: WhyWhy? What are the reasons? What are the underlying logic and? What are the reasons? What are the underlying logic and dynamics?dynamics?

To Predict:To Predict: What is the likelihood of the phenomenon occurring under a What is the likelihood of the phenomenon occurring under a

given condition? given condition? Under what conditionsUnder what conditions is a phenomenon likely is a phenomenon likely to occur?)to occur?)

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• ““Scientific” Scientific” KnowledgeKnowledge??““Scientific” knowledge is our Scientific” knowledge is our tentativetentative and and falsifiable falsifiable

explanationsexplanations of of naturalnatural phenomena developed on the basis phenomena developed on the basis of careful of careful logical/systematic/disciplined analysislogical/systematic/disciplined analysis of of observational evidenceobservational evidence (publically reviewable evidence). (publically reviewable evidence).

• Research?Research?Process of Process of searching for new informationsearching for new information, through which new , through which new

knowledge is created.knowledge is created.

• Empirical Research?Empirical Research?

A systematic and A systematic and observation-based/data-basedobservation-based/data-based investigation investigation of a phenomenon, of a phenomenon, guided by theory guided by theory regarding the regarding the presumedpresumed relationships among the factors that are relationships among the factors that are expected to bear on that phenomenon.expected to bear on that phenomenon.

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Conventionally, the method of science is based on an interplay of both the deductive and inductive processes.

DEDUCTIVE METHOD?

Process of arguing/reasoning from general principles/assertions to arrive at inferences/conclusions about specific instances.As in Mathematics: (a + b)2 = a2 + b2 + 2abThus: (3 + 4)2 = 72 = 32 + 42 + 2 (3*4) = 9+16+24 = 49

QUESTION: What would be an example of deductive reasoning using the following related (but, randomly stated) observations?

• Cats and dogs are living animals.• Cats and dogs breath oxygen.• All living animals breath oxygen.

Process of arguing/reasoning from general principles/assertions/axioms to arrive at inferences/hypotheses/conclusions about specific instances.

QUESTION: What would be an example of deductive reasoning using the following related (but, randomly stated) observations?ANSWER:

1. All living animals breath oxygen.2. Cats and dogs are living animals.3. Cats and dogs breath oxygen.

Top-Down Process: Logical Assertion/Self Evident Premise Inferences/Hypotheses Observation Testing & Confirmation

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Conventionally, the method of science is based on an interplay of both the deductive and inductive processes.

DEDUCTIVE METHOD?

Which will Allow

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Process of arriving at general principles/assertion/ explanations based on observation of particular instances.

QUESTION: What would be an example of inductive reasoning using the same three statements?

• All eggs in this box have the same expiration date• All the eggs in this box are spoiled• The first 5 eggs we tried (sampled) from this box were

spoiled

INDUCTIVE METHOD?

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Process of arriving at general principles/ assertion from observation of particular instances.

QUESTION: What would be an example of inductive reasoning using the same three statements?

ANSWER:

1. The first 5 eggs we tried (sampled) from this box were spoiled2. All eggs in this box have the same expiration date3. So, all the eggs in this box are spoiled

Bottom-Up Process:Observation Pattern(s) Theory Confirmation w. New Observation

INDUCTIVE METHOD?

Allow

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It was stated earlier:“Conventionally, the method of science is based on aninterplay of both the conceptually-based deductive as well as the empirically-based inductive processes.”

QUESTION:

• What do we mean by this statement?• How does this deductive-inductive process work

in the scientific method?

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Conventionally, in a scientific study…Conventionally, in a scientific study…

a)a) First, the researcher First, the researcher starts withstarts with::• THEORY Construction: THEORY Construction: Developing general assertionsDeveloping general assertions/ /

claims/explanations about the phenomenon being claims/explanations about the phenomenon being studied.studied.

Often based on Often based on logiclogic and and casual observationscasual observations/experiences/experiences

• That is, he/she That is, he/she reasons whyreasons why these assertions are these assertions are expected to be supportedexpected to be supported by specific observations (i.e., by specific observations (i.e., should be backed up by should be backed up by DATADATA), ),

b)b) Then, Then, any evidence/observations to the contraryany evidence/observations to the contrary ( (i.e., use i.e., use DATA that does not support the theoryDATA that does not support the theory), will be ), will be used to used to reviserevise and fine-tune the initial assertions/explanations ( and fine-tune the initial assertions/explanations (i.e., i.e., THEORY ReconstructionTHEORY Reconstruction).).

Let’s now examine the Let’s now examine the specific stepsspecific steps involved in involved in undertaking an empirical scientific study. undertaking an empirical scientific study.

Deductive Process

Inductive Process

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Developing ResearchHypotheses

THE PROCESS OF

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

Developing OperationalDefinitions for

Research Variables

Data Coding,And

Editing

Testing Hypo.:Data Analysis &Interpretation

Refinement of theory

Exploration/Discovery: More in-depth/focused probingto find a tentative explanation(s)

for the Phenomenon (e.g., Lit. Review)

Intriguing Observation,Intellectual Curiosity,

Practical Problem

Preliminary work todefine Research

Questions & Objectives within the broader topic

Sampling Design Data Collection

Developing a Theoretical Framework and a Research Model

(Identify Related Variables)

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Data Coding,And

Editing

Refinement of theoryTHE PROCESS OF

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH


Research Variables

Data Collection

Intriguing Observation, Practical Problem,

Intellectual Curiosity


Broadly Define ResearchQuestions & Objectives

Exploration & Discovery: Finding Tentative Explanations


Sampling Design

Inductive Process

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Data Coding,And

Editing


EMPIRICAL RESEARCH


Research Variables

Data Collection







Sampling Design

Deductive Process

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Data Coding,And

Editing


EMPIRICAL RESEARCH


Research Variables

Data Collection






For the Phenomenon (e.g., Lit. Review)

?

Sampling Design

Inductive Process

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Theory Theory is a is a set of explanationsset of explanations that help that help organize informationorganize information about a phenomenon into a about a phenomenon into a coherent bodycoherent body and helps us sort out and helps us sort out how the different pieces/ideas fit together)how the different pieces/ideas fit together)..

TheoryTheory presents/depicts the logical and presents/depicts the logical and persistent relationships persistent relationships among variables/ among variables/ constructs/factorsconstructs/factors that, based on that, based on available evidenceavailable evidence, are presumed to explain a phenomenon., are presumed to explain a phenomenon.

TheoryTheory is a set of is a set of interrelated conceptsinterrelated concepts, constructs, definitions, , constructs, definitions, and propositionsand propositions that present a that present a systematic view of a phenomenonsystematic view of a phenomenon by by specifying the presumed relationsspecifying the presumed relations among pertinent among pertinent variables, with the purpose of explaining and predicting the phenomena.variables, with the purpose of explaining and predicting the phenomena.

Assumption Implied by TheoryAssumption Implied by Theory? ?

Assumption of Determinism: Assumption of Determinism: All phenomena follow some All phenomena follow some order/regularitiesorder/regularities (i.e., are not chaotic/random).(i.e., are not chaotic/random).**

– That is, every phenomenon is assumed to have That is, every phenomenon is assumed to have logical, knowable, andlogical, knowable, andexplainable causesexplainable causes (i.e., things don’t just happen!!!). (i.e., things don’t just happen!!!).

– Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein: “God does not play dice with the universe”: “God does not play dice with the universe”

* THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE: THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE: The above principle appears to be The above principle appears to be true in everytrue in everybranch of science with the exception ofbranch of science with the exception of quantum mechanicsquantum mechanics where the where the position of position of electrons cannot be predicted with certaintyelectrons cannot be predicted with certainty. . Werner Heisenberg Werner Heisenberg called this discovery called this discovery "The Indeterminacy/uncertainty Principle.” "The Indeterminacy/uncertainty Principle.” This means that This means that events at the subatomic level occur events at the subatomic level occur "randomly", "by pure chance“"randomly", "by pure chance“

and are not determined by any causes whateverand are not determined by any causes whatever..

Werner Heisenberg (1901-1976)

Albert Einstein (1879-1955

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Why start our research with a theory? Practical utility of theory?• Helps us organize and integrate our thoughts and information about a subject

and make it easier to comprehend the phenomenon and make predictions.

• Helps us think logically/methodically about an issue, identify the right questions to ask, and articulate the pertinent research problems/issues to be addressed

Will force us to think ahead about data collection and analysis needs/methods.

• Helps pin down the appropriate perspective and identify the relevant concepts, variables, and explanatory factors that are expected to bear on the issue being studied. Example:

Task-related determinants of job satisfaction (e.g., variety, autonomy, feedback, job stress)

Organizational determinants of job sat. (e.g., culture, advancement opportunities, organizational policies and practices, company reward structure, etc.).

Consequences of job sat. (e.g., absenteeism, turnover, loyalty) Occupational Differences (e.g., blue vs white collar) in job satisfaction Historical changes in job sat. in the U.S. etc.

(Continued on next slide)

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Why start our research with a theory? Practical utility of theory?

• As such, will help point to (a) the variable/characteristics/factors that need to be observed/measured/examined, and (b) the type of data that needs to be obtained.

• Generally, gives our research focus/specificity and, thus, our efforts a direction, thereby keeping us from getting lost and overwhelmed.

Conventionally, theories are constructed by combining:

Information from previous literature, Experience Common sense and logical reasoning

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1. WHAT:Identifies what factors (variables) are expected to explain(i.e., have a potential bearing on) the phenomenon of interest.

Remember the balance between Comprehensiveness & Parsimony.

• Selection Criteria: In general, factors should be selected that…Are likely to contribute to the understanding of the question at handAre theoretically/logically plausible determinants of the phenomenon Fit the perspective from which the phenomenon is being studiedHold some interest for us (personally or professionally)Have not been investigated in a given manner or combination beforeAre likely to lead to other important question

• Developing a Theoretical/Conceptual Model: An “Elaboration Process” can be used to develop a network of

cause-and-effect relationships that would depict the chain of causation (logical ordering) among the selected factors—See unionization example.

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What are the theoretically plausible factors that could influence employee’s vote in unionization elections?

3 Theoretical Frameworks can provide relevant insight (can form the theoretical underpinnings for identification of relevant factors):

• Equity Theory (Summers et al.)—Unions can be viewed as a leveling mechanism in dealing with perceived organizational inequities and unmet expectations

It highlights: Dissatisfaction with various aspects of one’s job

• Theory of Power, Discontent, and Distrust (Gamson, 1968)—Unions can be viewed as a countervailing force against arbitrary and unfavorable treatment in a system of competing interests

It highlights: Level of Trust in Management—representing the extent to which employee and employer interests are seen to be at odds with each other.

• Expectancy Theory (Lawler & Walker, 1980)—Behavior is viewed as a function of its expected valued consequences/outcomes.

It highlights: Perceived Union Instrumentality

• Other Perspectives: Employee views toward unions in general

Socio-political attitudes (liberal vs conservative)

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1. WHAT:Identifies what factors (variables/constructs) are expected to explain (have a potential bearing on) the phenomenon of interest.

2. HOW:Describes how the identified explanatory factors (variables/constructs) are expected to be interrelated?

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Developing the Research Model: How do these pieces fit together? How are these elements interrelated (in what order) and why?Start from final outcome variable(s) and reason back to include antecedent variables.

•In the final analysis, which of those factors would ultimately give you the urge to vote one way or the other?

All things said and done, the one thing that ultimately sways you to vote one way or another is how beneficial you see the union to be in protecting your interest and improving the existing conditions.

•What makes you see it more or less beneficial?

How happy/unhappy you currently are with your job conditions.

•What would mitigate your urge to vote one way or the other?

How much confidence/trust you have in management for watching out for your interest/welfare .

Now we can start developing the research model (network of association)…

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Voting Pro Union in a Collective Bargaining Election

Perceived Union Instrumentality (Expectancy Theory)

Attitudes Toward Unions in General

Conservative (vs. Liberal) Political Attitudes

Trust in Management (Power, Discontent, and Distrust)

Job Dissatisfaction: --Pay (Equity --BenefitsTheory) --Job Security --Supervision --Work Load --Opportunity for Advancement --Participation in Decision Making --etc.

- -

+

+

+

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3. WHY:

What are the reasons for selection of variables/constructs, and what is the logic behind the proposed relationships among them.

“WHAT” and “HOW” provide the theory’s framework--i.e., the DESCRIPTION of the phenomenon.

“WHY” provides the theoretical glue that welds the framework together--i.e, the EXPLANATIONS forthe presumed relationships among the variables/ constructs.

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4. WHO, WHERE, WHEN:

Contextual factors that place limitations on the applicability/generalizability of a theory.

– Typically discovered through subsequent replications under slightly different circumstances (different subject, settings, times).

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VARIABLESVARIABLESIn Short…• Theory is the product of interplay between:

– a conceptually-based deductive process and– an empirically-based inductive activity.

• Theory provides cohesion, efficiency, and structure to our research questions and study design.

– It helps identify the determinants of the phenomenon to be studied and the mechanism through which those determinants are supposed to operate.

• That is, it helps identify (a) what factors should be examined, and (b) how and why they are expected to be related.

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VARIABLESVARIABLESTheory presents/depicts the logical and persistent

relationships among variables/constructs/factors that are presumed to explain a phenomenon.

Variable? A concept/characteristic that assumes (takes on)

different values and, thus, represents differences among research subjects regarding a particular attribute.

Variables capture variations/differences among research subjects.

NOTE: When we refer to a variable, we are actually interested in the variations/differences in the values of that variable.

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TYPES OF VARIABLESTYPES OF VARIABLESTheoretical models can include dependent, independent,intervening, and moderating variables: Dependent Variable(s)? Variables whose variation the researcher tries to explain or account for, Example: Likelihood of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD)

Independent Variable(s)? Variables whose variations arepresumed to affect, cause, or explainthe variation in the dependent variable. Examples for CHD?

NOTE: When selecting a name for a variable, make sure the name reflects what the variable is supposed to represent --e.g., likelihood, severity, type, or length of CHD.

Amount Meat in Diet Likelihood of CHD

Family History of CHD

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Intervening (Mediating) Variable(s): Variables through which independent variables would affect (influence) the dependent

variable.They represent factors that underlie a theory’s causal links/ explanations (i.e., X affects Y because ……)

EXAMPLE?

TYPES OF VARIABLESTYPES OF VARIABLES

Amount Meat in Diet Likelihood of CHD


Amount Meat in Diet Amt Bad Cholesterol

Family History of CHD Likelihood of CHD

Moderating Variable(s): Variables that are expected to change/mitigate/temper the intensity and/or nature of the

relationship between an independent and a dependent variable.

• The “it depends” variable, when asking “Does it always work the same way?”

EXAMPLE: What if preliminary observations show that a 20 point increase in bad-cholesterol level results in 15% increase in the risk for CHD among men, but only 5% increase in the risk for CHD among women?

Job Dissatisfaction Voluntary Turnover Caffeine Intake Women’s Health

State of the Job Market Pregnancy (100 mg)32

TYPES OF VARIABLESTYPES OF VARIABLES


Amount Meat in Diet Amt Bad Cholesterol Likelihood of CHD

Gender


Amount Meat in Diet Amt Bad Cholesterol Likelihood of CHD

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Voting Pro Union

PerceivedUnionInstrumentality

Attitudes Toward Unions in General

Conservative (vs. Liberal)Political Attitudes

Trust in Management

(Low vs. High)

Job Dissatisfaction: --Pay --Benefits --Job Security --Supervision --Work Load --Opportunity for Advancement --Participation in Decision Making --etc.

--

+

+

+

Explanation?

Don’t forget Assignment 1 Next Week

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Exploration & Discovery:Finding Tentative Explanations






Sampling Design


Data Coding,And

Editing


Research Variables


(Explanations/Assertions)

Data Collection


THE PROCESS OF

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

?

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A hypothesis is a conjectural statement or a tentative proposition about presumed relationships between two or more variables/constructs in a theoretical framework.

“If such-and-such occurs, then so-and-so is more/less likely to result.”

– Represent the building blocks of theory.– The bridge between theory and testing.

Example from Unionization Model?

H1: The greater the dissatisfaction with one’s pay, the more favorable would be one’ perceived union instrumentality, OR H2: The More favorable is one’s perceived union instrumentality, the more likely one is to vote for a union.

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Sampling Design


Data Coding,And

Editing


Research Variables



Data Collection


THE PROCESS OF

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

?

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Operationalization: Specifying empirical indicators to represent theoretical concepts (conceptual definitions)

While the conceptual definition of a variable describes the variable in terms of other concepts, an operational definition describes the operations that need to be performed to measure a concept. (Kerlinger, 1986).

Operationalization involves establishing standard ground rules/procedures for measurement of our theoretical concepts (variables/constructs).

Helps convert a theoretical hypothesis to an empirical (testable) hypothesis.

Operationalization

Example: Faculty Unionization

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H: The More favorable is one’s perceived union instrumentality, the more likely one is to vote for a union

Theoretical Concepts

Operational Definitions?

Instrumentality (perceived consequences of unionization):Extent of agreement/disagreement (on a 7-point scale) with a series of statements such as: Unionization will protect employees against arbitrary dismissal decisions. Unionization will increase fairness in promotion decisions. Unionization will impair excellence in work quality. Unionization will result in worker salary improvements. Unionization will result in subordination of business concerns to inflexible

contract provisions. Unionization will improve worker job security. Unionization will increase bureaucratic rigidity in the workplace. Unionization will give workers greater voice in company’s decisions.

Another Example: The Asch Experiment (1954) Asch’s Theory: Conformity is a function of group structure

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• Distortion of Perception (“That really was the way I saw it”)• Distortion of Judgment (“I figured majority cannot be wrong, so I changed my answer”)• Distortion of Action (“Changed my answer because I felt uncomfortable to be different”)

OPERATIONALIZATION--Empirical Indicators?• Conformity: % of times subjects went along with the group • Group Structure: Group’s size and group’s unanimity

EMPIRICAL HYPOTHESES: H1) The larger the group, the greater will be the % of times subjects would go along with the group H2)

The more unanimity among the group members, the greater will be the

percent of times subjects would go along with the group

ReferenceLine a b c

Theory: Conformity is a function of group structure

RESULTS:

37% yielded every time

75% yielded at least once

Explanations at the Briefing:

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Sampling Design


Data Coding,And

Editing


Research Variables



Data Collection


THE PROCESS OF

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

?

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The essence of testing is to examine plausibility of the relationship expressed by a hypotheses—That is,

To check whether the weight of the evidence (i.e., data analysis results) supports a hypothesis, or casts doubt on its plausibility.

Ordinarily involves determining the likelihood/chance of being wrong if we conclude that A is a function of B.

This is ordinarily done through applicationof statistical analysis techniques.

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To recap:Conventionally, in an empirical scientific study…

a) First, one would develop general assertions/ explanations about a phenomenon (i.e., THEORY)• in which one would reason why these

assertions should apply to specific observations (i.e., should be backed up by DATA), and

b) Then, one would use any evidence to the contrary (i.e., use DATA that does not support the theory), to revise and fine-tune the initial assertions/ explanations (i.e., to reconstruct THEORY).

Deductive Process

Inductive Process

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QUESTIONS

OR

COMMENTS

1. 2 functions/objectives of science and scientific theories? to describe: specifying what makes a...

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