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http://www.batescarey.com/191 North Wacker Suite 2400 (60606) - Chicago, Illinois

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SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES

 Robert J. Bates November 2015

2015 Insuralex Fall Meeting

SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES

Robert J. Bates, Jr.Maryann C. HayesBATESCAREY LLP191 N. Wacker Dr.Chicago, IL 60606November 5, 2015

WHAT IS AN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE?

• Car that drives itself.

• Perceives the environment and moves where safe and desirable.

• “Robots.”

• No human supervision required.

• Everyone in AV is a passenger, or it can travel with no occupants at all.

• Goal: ubiquitous, safe and hacker proof.

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GOOGLE AV

• 2014: AV with no steering wheel or pedals.

• Available to public in 2017.

• Range finder is a Velodyne 64-beam laser.

• Generates a detailed 3D map of environment.

• AV combines maps with maps of the world, producing different data models.

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First Google AV (Prius)

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Latest Google AV

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Mercedes AV

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Mercedes AV

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Toyota AV

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Apple’s Prototype

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Nissan

Conventional Nissan taxis above; Nissan and NASA are collaborating to develop a fleet of electric autonomous cabs.

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Dutch EZ-10 Autonomous Shuttle OF Ligier Group

2/9/15, “Netherlands First to Operate a Self-Driving Shuttle in Public Traffic?,” driverlessuser.com.

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Delphi / Audi SQ5

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Tesla Model S

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Tesla Model X

Interior Seats 7 AdultsBatesCarey LLP

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Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, expects true autonomous driving by 2023. In 5 or 6 years “we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination”. We may need another 2 to 3 years for regulatory approval.

(Source: Huffington Post, 6/15/14)

 

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DRIVERLESS CHARIOTS FOR THE “1%”

• Tesla: With Models S and X, owner can “summon” car in self-driving mode from garage or driveway.

• Delphi: In March 2015, sent an AV Audi SQ5 SUV on a coast-to- coast drive -- the longest ever for an AV.

• Cadillac: Will offer “super-cruise” feature allowing cars to

steer, brake, accelerate by themselves.

• Apple: With $178 billion in cash, has announced it will jump into the white-hot AV race. (“Project Titan.”)

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WHO WILL MAKE AVs?

Car manufacturers:

GM

Ford

VW-Audi

Volvo

Nissan

Toyota

Daimler AG

Tesla

SAIC Motors (Shanghai Auto.Ind. Corp.)

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WHO WILL MAKE AVs?

Technological and Idea Innovators:

Google

Amazon

Uber

Apple

Alibaba/Baidu

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WHO WILL MAKE AVs?

Components manufacturers:

Bosch

Continental

Delphi

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WHO WILL MAKE AVs?

Carnegie Mellon and Cadillac SRX (Pittsburgh, PA)

SAIC and Alibaba (China)

NASA and Nissan (CA)

Ford/State Farm/University ofMichigan

Partnerships:

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HOW WILL AVs BE USED?

• Nissan/NASA developing fleet of electric autonomous cabs.

• Nissan’s “Taxi of Tomorrow” is planned to replace NYC’s traditional Ford Crown Victoria cabs.

• Nissan’s all-electric AV taxi is already on sale in Europe.

Fleets/Taxis

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Pros

1. Safety:

• 90% of 5.5 million crashes in U.S. caused by driver error. Auto crash deaths are 8th leading cause of death in the world. 1.2 million people per year world-wide; 33,000 in U.S. – equivalent of 5 Boeing jets crashing every week.

2. Productivity/Personal Savings:

• 50 minutes per person per day = economic value of $100 billion to $1 trillion.

• Decline in Car Ownership: Cars now cost drivers 18% of annual income for an asset they use only 5% of the time.

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Pros (cont.)

3. Reduced Traffic Congestion

• 25% of congestion due to accidents averted by AVs.

• AVs will respond better to traffic conditions.

• Networked AVs communicate, eliminating need to anticipate actions of other cars.

4. Environmental Benefits

• Goal is for AVs to be electric or hybrid.

• Cars account for 20% of all greenhouse gas emissions and 60% of petroleum use.

• Fuel efficiency will improve by 10% to 40%.

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Pros (cont.)

5. New trillion-dollar industry will provide countless opportunities for entrepreneurs to develop new technologies and services.

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Cons

1. Job loss in traditional industries:

• Trucking (3.5 million)

• Taxis

• Couriers

2. Loss of Revenue to Municipal Budgets:

• From speeding or parking tickets

• Less need for law enforcement to monitor roadways and accidents

• Reduced use of public transportation

3. Disruption to Current Land Use

• People may move to suburbs from cities since they can be productive during commute.

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2015

• Google launches first short-range AV in California.

• Auto makers (Daimler, Honda, Nissan) announce initiatives to counter Google.

• Car2Go (Daimler) announces roadmap for autonomy in car fleet.

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2016

• Google with short-range, AV fleet, built by Ford, Magna, or others.

• China: shared AVs; infrastructure expenditure; reduced ecological footprint.

• Google AV service to cities with little rain and no snow, e.g., Las Vegas and Sun City, AZ.

• Google first overseas fleet.

• Public sees benefits of AV tech, but concerned about job losses.

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2018

• Car2Go adds AVs to fleet.

• Google-Uber merger rolls out AVs internationally.

• Investment in AV fleets/services, startups, and schemes.

• Countries compete to gain advantage in new industries.

• AVs safer than human driver; people safe and comfortable in AVs.

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2019

• Vienna Convention and EU laws updated for AVs.

• AVs operate in over 50 cities worldwide.

• Growth for autonomous trucks; truck drivers protests.

• First high-end consumer cars capable of fully autonomous driving on national roads available.

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2020

• New laws prohibit “bullying” of AVs (e.g., jumping in front of it to make it stop).

• Bleak outlook for auto companies; volume down.

• Consumers transition to AVs and shared AVs.

• Auto industry fights for survival.

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2022

• Prices for used cars drop.

• Move to shared AVs; sell-off of non-AV vehicles.

• Mass transit turns to AVs.

• Insurance rates favor AVs.

• Many stop driving on their own.

• Drivers licenses illegal? (Elon Musk)

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2023

• Autonomous buses used for medium- and long distance trips.

• Trains compete with autonomous buses.

• Companies dictate that business travel be in AVs, for safety and productivity.

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2025

• Fleets of AVs operate in most cities of developed nations.

• Auto companies begin to shut down.

• Major auto countries -- Germany, Sweden, Japan -- try to prop up their OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers).

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POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2030

• Car ownership declines dramatically.

• Only 20% of the US population still own a car.

• 90% of all trips in AV mode.

• Traffic accidents/fatalities decline dramatically.

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McKINSEY REPORT, March 2015

1. Trucks likely to lead the way, ahead of passenger cars.

2. Automakers must change strategies.

3. New mobility options preempt car ownership.

4. AVs dictate maintenance; service shops require specialized equipment to service AVs.

5. Insurers shift from insuring against human error to insuring against technical failure.

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McKINSEY REPORT (cont.)

6. AVs will change logistics of transportation and supply chains.

7. Drivers will gain an extra 50 minutes a day.

8. AVs could free up 5.7 billion square meters of parking space in the US alone.

9. Far fewer and less lethal car crashes; lower costs to governments and taxpayers.

10. AVs will lead to commercial development of robotics in other areas.

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SAFETY IMPLICATIONS

• In 2010, there were 6 million crashes in the U.S., 93% due to human error.

• In 2012, over 33,000 deaths occurred in motor accidents; an average of 90 fatalities per day.

• Globally, there are 1.3 million fatalities and 50 million injuries every year.

• Most accidents are the result of the “4 Ds”:

DistractionDrunkennessDrowsiness Driver Error

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INSURANCE

• $200 billion in auto premium per year in U.S.

• Market may decrease by 75% or more.

• Liability will be with car manufacturer, not owner/driver.

• Recent SEC filings note that AVs could decrease consumer demand for insurance:

Travelers CompaniesCincinnati Financial

Mercury General

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INSURANCE

• Underwriting will decline in importance.

• In the long term, no more auto insurance for personal injury.

• Automakers could embrace increase in product liability by “bundling” insurance with AV sales.

• Start-ups, like mileage-based insurer MetroMile, might eat away at the edges.

• Car-sharing/fractional ownership may follow Uber model for insurance.

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INSURANCE

• Opportunities for insurers.

• Auto policies offered on “no fault” basis?

• Insurers may shift focus to customer relationships, claims processing, expense management.

• Auto insurance may become more like homeowner’s insurance; claims rare, but very high.

• Cyber risk vs. economic loss vs. product liability.

• Trucks/Fleet Coverage: bodily injury, economic loss, cyber loss.

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• Four U.S. states and D.C. have passed laws permitting AVs:

Nevada

Florida

California

Michigan

• Patchwork of state-by-state or country by country laws and regulations?

• Smart road infrastructure, dedicated highway lanes, manufacturer or consumer incentives?

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CYBER RISK

• AVs will involve large amounts of connected data; smart phones and tablets.

• Malicious interference with AVs could have serious safety implications.

• AV system resilience and robust data encryption critical.

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CYBER RISK POSED BY HACKERS

• Could access personal data, such as journeys, to determine when person is not home.

• Malicious interference with movement of AVs, causing accidents.

• Large-scale immobilization of AVs.

• Misdirection of AVs.

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CONCLUSIONS

• AVs will change our world.

• Regulations needed to earn public trust.

• AV safety will prompt acceptance.

• As AVs become computerized and networked, cyber risk will be a key concern.

• With increase of cyber risk, cyber insurance will be required.

• Insurers may try to match exposure to premiums, and individually tailor policies to fleets and individuals.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

ROBERT BATES ON AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

INSURALEX 2015 FALL MEETING

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• Reuters. "Google Is Much More Optimistic than Automakers about Self-driving Cars." Business Insider, 04 Sept. 2015. Web. <http://www.businessinsider.com/r-automakers-google-take-different-roads-to-automated-cars-2015-9>.

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• Reuters. "Self-driving Cars Could Lead to an Entirely New Paradigm in Car Insurance." Business Insider. 08 Sept. 2015. Web. <http://www.businessinsider.com/r-autonomous-cars-shift-insurance-liability-toward-manufacturers-2015-9>.

• Richtel, Matt, and Conor Dougherty. "Google’s Driverless Cars Run Into Problem: Cars With Drivers." The New York Times. 01 Sept. 2015. Web. <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/technology/personaltech/google-says-its-not-the-driverless-cars-fault-its-other-drivers.html?_r=0>.

• Rochan, M. "China's Baidu Could Introduce an Autonomous Car in 2015." International Business Times, 10 Mar. 2015. Web. <http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinas-baidu-could-introduce-autonomous-car-this-year-1491305>.

• Rosevear, John. "Who Profits From a Future Filled With Self-Driving Cars? -- The Motley Fool." The Motley Fool. 26 Aug. 2015. Web. <http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/08/26/who-profits-from-a-future-filled-with-self-driving.aspx>.

• Ross, Philip. "Mercedes-Benz: Don't Build an ICar!" Motoring.com.au, 24 Feb. 2015. Web. <http://www.motoring.com.au/news/2015/mercedes-benz-dont-build-an-icar-49356>.

• Sage, Alexandria. "Honda Gets California Approval for Self-driving Cars on Roads." Reuters. 10 Sept. 2015. Web. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/us-honda-autos-self-driving-idUSKCN0RA2G820150910>.

• "Self-Driving Cars and Insurance." Insurance Information Institute, Feb. 2015. Web. <http://www.iii.org/issue-update/self-driving-cars-and-insurance>.

• Smith, Dave. "Uber's CEO Told Stephen Colbert That Apple Is Working on Self-driving Cars." Tech Insider. 11 Sept. 2015. Web. <http://www.techinsider.io/uber-travis-kalanick-stephen-colbert-apple-is-making-self-driving-cars-2015-9>.

• Stewart, Jack. "What May Be Self-driving Cars' Biggest Problem." BBC. 25 Aug. 2015. Web. <http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150824-what-may-be-self-driving-cars-biggest-problem>.

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• Suciu, Peter. "The Road Ahead for Self-Driving Cars." Tech News World, 19 Mar. 2015. Web. <http://www.technewsworld.com/story/81840.html>.

• Urmson, Chris. "Interview: Google’s Self-Driving Car Director on Its Autonomous Car, the Future of Mobility, and Drifting Priuses." Interview by Clifford Atiyeh. Car and Driver, 20 Jan. 2015. Web. <http://blog.caranddriver.com/interview-googles-self-driving-car-director-on-its-autonomous-car-the-future-of-mobility-and-drifting-priuses/>.

• Villasenor, John. "Products Liability and Driverless Cars: Issues and Guiding Principles for Legislation." The Brookings Institution, 24 Apr. 2014. Web. <http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/04/products-liability-driverless-cars-villasenor>.

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• Yeomans, Gillian. "HANDING OVER CONTROL: OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR INSURANCE." Autonomous Vehicles (2014): n. pag. Lloyd's, 2014. Web. <https://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk%20reports/autonomous%20vehicles%20final.pdf>.

• Zander, Christina. "U.S. Must Create National Guidelines for Self-Driving Cars, Says Volvo." Advisen FPM. 7 Oct. 2015. Web. <http://fpn.advisen.com/articles/article2468687661062779043.html>.

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Books

• Sullivan, Patrick, Getting Ready for Driverless Cars: Everything You Need to Know. 2015. Print.

• Tillemann, Levi. Great Race: The Global Quest for the Car of the Future. S.l.: Simon & Schuster, 2015. Print.

• Vance, Ashley, Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future, 2015. Print.

• Wayner, Peter. Future Ride: 80 Ways the Self-driving, Autonomous Car Will Change Everything from Buying Groceries to Teen Romance to Surviving a Hurricane to Turning Ten to Having a Heart Attack to Building a Dream Home to Simply Getting from Here to There. San Bernardino, CA: Peter Wayner, 2014. Print.

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