091029 fbbb poyry sustainable cities.ppt
TRANSCRIPT
Sustainable cities– from Masdar City to ”Our City” of Carlsberg
29. september 2009Lise-Lotte Pade, Pöyryy y
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Agenda
• Background and Challanges
• Around the world
• Pöyry Projects
• Conclusions
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Population development and the cities
• World population today: 6,7 bill.World population; 1980-2050
8 000 000
9.000.000
10.000.000
• World population in 2050: 9,2 bill.
• In 30 years, 80% of the world’s urban 4 000 000
5.000.000
6.000.000
7.000.000
8.000.000
1000
per
s.
OceaniaNorthern AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanEuropeAsiaAf i
y ,population will live in developing countries
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000 Africa
• In 30 years, 70% of the world’s population will live in cities
01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
• In 2015 there will be 22 megacities, each with more than 10 mill. inhabitants
Ch ll Cit l i ill b• Challenge: City planning will be decisive for the energy consumption and environmental impact in the future
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
future
Changes in energy consumption and investments in the energy sectorSource: WEC B scenario, IIASA 2002
• Industrial countries’ share of the world’s energy consumption is today 65%. In 2050 it will only be 40%
500
600
700
36 % af total
• In 2050, Asia is expected to be responsible for 36% of the world’s primary energy consumption
300
400
Sam
let e
nerg
iforb
rug
i EJ
Afrika & Mellemøsten
Asien
Latinamerika18% af total
• Fast growing economies demand very large investments
0
100
200
S
Europa & det tidligere Sovjetunion
Nordamerika & oversøisk OECD
• Energy consumption in households, and business and public buildings is account for 35% of the world’s energy consumption
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
75
90
AsienMellemøsten + Afrika35% of the world s energy consumption
• Need to get focus on energy saving potentials and development of new 45
60
lione
r US$
Mellemøsten AfrikaOversøiske landeLatinamerikaTidligere SovjetunionEropaNordamerika
products
• Challenge: Getting technologies on to the market
15
30bi
l
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
the market0
1990-2020 2020-2050 2050-2100
Changes in electricity production og fuel compositionSource: IEA International Energy Outlook 2007, reference case; IEA Energy Statistics 2005
• Almost 40% of the world’s CO2-emissions come from electricity and heat sectors
25
30
Kul 85%
• Electricity demand is expected to increase with 85% untill 2030
15
20
Tusi
nde
TWh
Kul
Naturgas
• Under BAU, energy related CO2-emissions are expected to rise with another 60% before 2030
5
10
Oile
g
A-kraft
Vedvarendeenergi
• Challenge: Focusing on energy efficiency (old and new buildings)
02004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Oile
• Limit the use of fossil fuels, use more RE, and improve production efficiency
7%
26%55%
Transport
Andet
Opvarmning
• New technologies: CCS, fuel cells, fusion energy, IV generation nuclear power, biomass, wind energy, solar
35%
32% 19%
19%
Industri
Bygninger
Varmt vand
Elektriske apparater
Lys og madlavning 7%
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
The transport of the futureSource: Resources For The Future, www.rff.org; IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2006
• The future growth in the world’s vehicle stock will primary take place in developing countries
• Necessary to meet the rising transport d ith t i i i i ithneeds without increasing emissions with
the same amount
• Energy consumption and CO emissions• Energy consumption and CO2-emissions in the transport sector are expected to rise with 50-60% until 2030
3000
3500
7000
8000
9000LuftfartAndetVejtransportCO2
• Challenges: Efficiency improvement in motors, alternative fuels, more flexible transport systems, more
1500
2000
2500
gi fo
rbru
g, M
toe
4000
5000
6000
7000
mis
sion
er, M
io to
n
awareness about transportation in relation to society planning, re-thinking of the role of public transport efficient traffic planning
500
1000
1500En
erg
1000
2000
3000 CO
2 em
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
transport, efficient traffic planning0
2004 2015 2030År
0
Agenda
• Background and Challanges
• Around the world
• Pöyry Projects
• Conclusions
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Masdar City Sources: http://www.fosterandpartners.com/Projects/1515/Default.aspx, http://www.masdaruae.com/index.aspx
• Carbon- and waste-neutral city• Located in the desert, uses solar power p
and wind energy• First phase: Solar power station
generating electricity for the rest of the t ticonstruction
• No cars• Easily accessible public transport
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Dongtan eco-city Sources: http://www.dongtan.biz/english/zhdt/plan06.php, http://www.dongtan.biz/english/zhdt/plan05.php, http://www.popsci.com/environment/gallery/2007-07/dongtan-city.
• First purpose-built eco-city• Designed for sustainabilityDesigned for sustainability• 64% lower energy use• Environmentally firendly transport og
infrastructure green buildingsinfrastructure, green buildings, recycling of waste to energy, wind energy, protection against floodingPhase I complete in 2010• Phase I complete in 2010
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Hammarby Sjöstad Sources: http://www.stockholm.se/Extern/Templates/PageWide.aspx?id=191251,http://www.hammarbysjostad.se/
• Old industrial area• Sustainable city• Fast and efficient public transport shared carsFast and efficient public transport, shared cars,
bicycle tracks• Environmentally adjusted building materials• Renewable energy, recycling of waste heat, biogasgy y g g• 90% of household waste will be recycled for energy
generation• Water saving and purification of waste water
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Agenda
• Background and Challanges
• Around the world
• Pöyry Projects
• Conclusions
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects
Miljø Energi
VandØkonomi
Rating toolFredericia C
Social/sundhedØkonomi
Transport
Affald
Fysiske rammerSocialt liv og byliv
Sundhed
Mangfoldighed
Energi
3
4
5Fysiske rammer
Vand
Transport
Affald 0
1
2
Socialt liv og byliv
Sundhed
Mangfoldighed Carlsberg’s ”Our City”
Køge Kyst
Amager Fælled Neighbourhood
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects
Rating toolMiljø Energi
VandØkonomi
Rating toolTransport
AffaldSundhed
Mangfoldighed
Social/sundhedØkonomi Fysiske rammerSocialt liv og byliv
Energi
2
3
4
5Fysiske rammer
VandAffald 0
1
2
Socialt liv og bylivMangfoldighed
Transport Sundhed
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects – rating tool
• Proces tool – evaluating and adjusting Energy Building
g j gsustainability in urban development projects
– identify where and how to focus on
Transport
Water
Waster
Urban life
Health
Diversitysustainability
• Three sustainability dimensionsEnvironment Social/health
y– Eight elements representing the
dimensions• For each element a number of
i di t d ib t Economyindicators describe sust.
• Review/grade each element with
Economy
Energy
Transport
Buildings
Urban lifepoint of departure in the indicators– sustainability profile
Transport
Water
Waste
Urban life
Health
Diversity
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects
Fredericia C
Køge KystKøge Kyst
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects – Fredericia C and Køge Kyst
• Sustainability experts• Competition Brief
specify sustainability in urban development– specify sustainability in urban development• three dimensions
– environment, social/health, economyi ht l t• eight elements– energy, transport, water, waste, buildings, urban life, health, diversity
– define targets – eg. • energy consumption, CO2-neutrality, water consumption, sports facilities,
cultural facilities
• Review proposals
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects
A F ll d N i hb h dAmager Fælled Neighbourhood
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects – Amager Fælled Neighbourhood
• CO2-neutral and sustainable neighbourhood– means to reduce CO2-emissions– means to reduce CO2-emissions
• energy (electricity and heat), transport, water consumption, waste management, planning, behaviour
reduce CO2-emissions by 65 percent compared to business as usual– reduce CO2-emissions by 65 percent compared to business as usual
14000
16000
18000
14000
16000
18000
8000
10000
12000Emissionskoefficient, varmeEmissionskoefficient, elAdfærdTransportAffaldVandVarmeEl, bygEl hus erhverv
8000
10000
12000TransportAffaldVandVarmeEl, bygningsdriftEl, erhverv
2000
4000
6000
El, hus, erhvervEl, hus boligFootprint
0
2000
4000
6000El, bolig
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Pöyry projects
Carlsberg’s ”Our City”g y
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Pöyry projects – Our City – CO2-neutral City
• Optimisation of CO2-neutrality• energy standardenergy standard• energy production• off shore wind mill farms• green electricitygreen electricity
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Agenda
• Background and Challanges
• Around the world
• Pöyry Projects
• Conclusions
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Conclusions
• Lots of things going on– In Denmark as well as abroad– In Denmark as well as abroad
• more is needed
• Based on known technologies– No man on Mars
• but is it still too expensive?p
• Need for further specification of sustainable urban development– Open discussion of definitions
• Is it possible to make clear definitions?• Dynamic process
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg
Nansensgade 19 6th floor
Copenhagen
Nansensgade 19, 6th floorDK-1366 COPENHAGEN DenmarkTelephone: +45 33 91 40 45 Fax: +45 33 91 40 46 e mail: copenhagen ecdk@poyry come-mail: [email protected]
October 29, 2009from Masdar City to "Our City" of Carlsberg