Karen Bekaryan said the window for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey will exist until February-March 2010. If nothing happens by then, he predicts Armenia is very likely to get out of the process. [Gohar Martirosyan]

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Armenian-Turkish "football diplomacy" on the threshold of a new game

By Gohar Martirosyan for Hye-Profile in Yerevan -- 07/08/09

The issue of whether President Serzh Sargsyan will visit Turkey on October 14th to watch an Armenian-Turkish soccer match is currently high on the agenda in both countries. His attendance would represent the culmination of years of diplomacy.

Armenian and Turkish observers alike have their attention focused on an unlikely diplomatic milestone: the Armenian president's potential October visit to watch a soccer match in Turkey.

Those favouring a rapprochement between the countries say that, despite some delays, Armenian-Turkish relations must progress even if success takes longer than hoped. But if Turkey does not make any concrete steps in this direction, Armenia is very likely to quit the process, Armenian observers fear.

The issue received more international attention after President Serzh Sargsyan's statement on July 28th during a joint news conference with his Serbian counterpart, Boris Tadic, in Yerevan.

"I will accept the invitation only if agreements are observed and visible steps are taken; that is, I will go to Turkey if the border is open or if we are on the threshold of Armenia's de-blockading," emphasised Sargsyan.

Reaction from Ankara was indirect and neutral.

During a July 29th news conference with Bosnia and Herzegovina Foreign Minister Sven Alkalaj in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the Turkish government was still determined to normalise relations with Armenia.

"But at the same time, it is important for us to see the same determination from the international community and especially from Armenia on the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Davutoglu added.

Many observers state that the process of normalisation in Armenian-Turkish relations has slowed down recently.

"I am very surprised and disappointed. After [Turkish President Abdullah Gul's] visit [to Armenia], Obama's [use of the Armenian expression] <i>Metz Yeghern</i> [to characterise the events of 1915] and Sargsyan's friendly approach, we here in Turkey were inclined to think that this process of normalisation would naturally lead to the opening of the border and of reciprocal embassies," said Baskin Oran, professor of international relations at Ankara University.

Gul visited Armenia on September 6th 2008 to watch the 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifier match between Armenian and Turkish teams on the invitation of Sargsyan.

This "football diplomacy" led to several meetings of the countries' foreign ministers and a second presidential encounter in Prague.

Hopes rose even higher when the countries announced April 22nd that they had agreed on a "road map" of normalising bilateral relations. However, Azerbaijan, an ally of Turkey, made clear its opposition to any agreement as long as Armenian forces control Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian analysts say that Turkey is trying to buy some time.

According to Artak Shakaryan, a Yerevan-based Turkish studies analyst, the term "road map" implies a sequence of steps.

"Although we don't know the exact content of this road map, we can conclude that certain time frames are mentioned there," Shakaryan said.

Shakaryan concluded that Sargsyan's statement shows Armenian foreign policy is trying to set a certain deadline for Turkey to help push normalisation along. That deadline might be the FIFA qualifying match in Ankara on October 14th.

Karen Bekaryan, chairman of the NGO European Integration, thinks that the process can move along until the end of the year or until February-March 2010.

"I think February is the deadline for the final stop of the process. If there is no progress by then, Armenia will halt the process," predicted Bekaryan.